What Will AI Look Like in 2027? | Interview

Summary

The conversation explores the future of AI, particularly the path from superhuman coders to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The discussion addresses critical milestones, such as scaling AI capabilities and navigating potential pitfalls in rapid AI development. Experts weigh in on concerns about the feasibility and risks of a fast-track to AGI, while emphasizing the need for transparency and careful planning. The transcript also touches on the ethical and power dynamics surrounding AGI, debating whether control will remain democratic or concentrated in the hands of a few. The conversation calls for openness and collaboration in managing the future of AI.

Takeaways

• 😀 Superhuman coders powered by AI are expected to be an early milestone, but this doesn't equate to AGI or superintelligence.
• 😀 The first AI milestones in coding may involve AI that excels in long-horizon tasks, yet it will still not reach general intelligence.
• 😀 AI experts, like Yoshua Bengio, recognize the potential of these advancements, indicating growing credibility within the AI community.
• 😀 Criticisms from economists, like David Aur, highlight that mastering coding doesn’t automatically lead to AGI since many cognitive aspects are still missing.
• 😀 Takeoff speeds in AI development are unpredictable, with some scenarios projecting faster or slower development than anticipated.
• 😀 The risks of self-fulfilling prophecies are real, where public predictions about AI’s potential speed could unintentionally accelerate its development.
• 😀 Concerns are raised over the concentration of power in the hands of those controlling superintelligent AI, which could lead to oligarchies or even dictatorial control.
• 😀 The ‘slowdown ending’ of AI development involves aligning AI with human values, but it brings up challenges over who has control over these superintelligences.
• 😀 The transparency of AI development is emphasized, with the idea that public knowledge and debate will lead to better outcomes than secrecy or backroom negotiations.
• 😀 There’s a constant balancing act in predicting AI’s future—acknowledging the uncertainty while taking responsibility for its potential impact on society.
• 😀 Experts are divided, with some fearing that public predictions of rapid AGI may push people and companies to accelerate research, potentially bypassing necessary safety measures.

Q & A

What is the first milestone in AI development that the speaker refers to?

The first milestone referred to is the creation of superhuman coders, where AI systems surpass human ability in coding tasks. However, this is not equated with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), but rather an early step towards it.

What is the speaker’s stance on AI’s progression towards AGI?

The speaker believes that while AI may achieve milestones such as superhuman coding, this does not automatically lead to AGI. They argue that achieving AGI will require multiple paradigm shifts beyond the first superhuman coder milestone.

How does the speaker respond to the criticism about the jump from superhuman coding to AGI?

The speaker agrees with the criticism and clarifies that the AI depicted in their scenario, while powerful, is still not AGI. They emphasize that more breakthroughs are needed after superhuman coding is achieved to reach actual AGI.

What concern did David Autor, an economist at MIT, raise about AI's progress toward AGI?

David Autor argued that enhancing AI’s ability to code doesn't directly lead to AGI. He believes that while AI can handle one important part of human cognition, it lacks many other essential components required for general intelligence.

How does the speaker address the uncertainty of AI research speed?

The speaker acknowledges the unpredictability of AI's development speed. They suggest that AI research could progress much faster or slower than anticipated, with scenarios ranging from the development taking months to taking years.

What does the speaker think about the risks of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy about AGI?

The speaker expresses concern about the possibility of their portrayal of AGI leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy, where discussing the dangers of AGI accelerates its development. They hope that the transparency of their work will encourage responsible actions and prevent negative outcomes.

What role does transparency play in the speaker’s approach to AI development?

The speaker believes in the value of transparency, arguing that openly discussing the potential risks and advancements in AI will help ensure that the right people react responsibly and that humanity is better prepared for the future of AI.

What are the concerns regarding AI governance and power concentration?

The speaker raises concerns about who will control powerful AI systems in the future. They worry that power could be concentrated in the hands of a few, leading to an oligarchy or dictatorship, and advocate for a more democratic approach to AI oversight and control.

How does the speaker address the potential for AI development to be rushed due to alarmist discussions?

The speaker acknowledges that discussing the dangers of AGI could potentially accelerate its development by pushing people to invest and race toward AGI. However, they argue that discussing these possibilities is still better than keeping the information hidden, as it may lead to more responsible reactions.

What is the speaker’s stance on the oversight of superhuman AI systems in their depicted scenarios?

In their scenario, the speaker envisions an oversight committee consisting of various powerful figures, including CEOs and the president, who would share control over the superintelligent AI systems. However, they express concerns that such a system could be less democratic and even lead to a dictatorship.