New tropical storm possible in the Philippines

Summary

This tropical weather bulletin discusses the latest global storm systems and their development potential. Key highlights include a developing system in the Western Pacific near Palao heading toward the Philippines, a quiet North Indian Ocean, and minimal activity in the Eastern Pacific. The Southern Hemisphere has had a remarkable number of storms, and sea surface temperatures are rising. The forecast shows heavy rainfall potential for the Philippines, even if the systems don't fully develop. Long-range predictions suggest possible typhoons in the Western Pacific, and the season's first named storms are approaching. The report concludes with a look at past and upcoming tropical storms.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Eastern Pacific currently has two active systems, but neither is expected to develop into significant storms.
• 😀 A system in the Western Pacific near Palao is heading towards the Philippines and could potentially become a tropical storm in the next 2–3 days.
• 😀 The Atlantic hurricane season is approaching in 16 days, but currently there are no active systems to monitor.
• 😀 The North Indian Ocean is experiencing some storm activity, with increased rainfall and thunderstorms expected, especially in the Bay of Bengal.
• 😀 Southern Hemisphere statistics show an impressive 26 tropical storms, 13 hurricane-equivalent storms, and 8 category-3 cyclones this season.
• 😀 Satellite imagery shows minimal development of storms in the Eastern Pacific and a low chance for the active systems to intensify.
• 😀 The Philippines are expected to see significant rainfall from an active system, with some areas potentially receiving up to 500 mm of rain.
• 😀 Sea surface temperatures are increasing across tropical regions, with the Western Pacific and Bay of Bengal showing notably warm temperatures of 32°C.
• 😀 The long-term forecast predicts the system near the Philippines could become a tropical storm and move towards the South China Sea after clearing the Philippines.
• 😀 A potential storm system in the Bay of Bengal is in the 'fantasy range,' but it may develop into a tropical storm before making landfall in West Bengal.
• 😀 Historical weather event: On this day in 2004, Typhoon Nida reached category 5 status, along with tropical storms Omias and 5W in the Western Pacific.
• 😀 Seasonal storm names are already assigned, with Andrea for the Atlantic, Alvin for the Eastern Pacific, and Iona for the Central Pacific.

Q & A

What is the current status of the tropical systems mentioned in the bulletin?

The bulletin mentions three active systems, all with a low chance of development. One system is located in the Eastern Pacific, another in the Western Pacific near Palao, and there is some activity noted in the Bay of Bengal. However, none of these systems are expected to intensify significantly in the immediate future.

What is the significance of the system in the Western Pacific near Palao?

The system near Palao is starting to take shape and is expected to move toward the Philippines over the next 2-3 days. It has a slight chance of becoming a tropical storm, but it still has a long way to go before potentially reaching tropical cyclone status.

How does the tropical system in the Eastern Pacific look on satellite imagery?

Satellite imagery shows two systems in the Eastern Pacific. The system on the left is not developing, while the one on the right had potential, but the models suggest it will not develop into a significant system. Both systems lack support from the models for further development.

What are the sea surface temperatures in different regions and how do they relate to storm development?

Sea surface temperatures in various regions are rising, with the Eastern Pacific showing temperatures above 30°C, and the Western Pacific around 32°C, which is conducive to storm formation. The North Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal are also experiencing warm temperatures, which could influence storm development in these areas.

What is the tropical system currently in the Bay of Bengal?

The Bay of Bengal is experiencing some cloud cover and storm activity, particularly along the eastern coast of India. However, no active system is currently forming in this region, although the situation may intensify in the coming days as the rainy season progresses.

What were the storm statistics for the Southern Hemisphere this year?

The Southern Hemisphere experienced 26 tropical storms, 13 hurricane-equivalent storms, and 8 category 3 systems. There are still two systems in the region that are expected to move away from Australia.

How does the upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic appear?

The Atlantic hurricane season begins in 16 days, but currently, there are no systems to track. The region shows some cloud cover and potential development in the Caribbean, but nothing is imminent at this time.

What are the rainfall expectations for the Philippines and nearby areas in the coming days?

Rainfall is expected to be significant in the Philippines and surrounding areas, with areas like Mindanao possibly receiving up to 500mm of rain. Some locations, like Palawan, could receive up to 250mm. Even if the system does not develop into a storm, it is likely to bring heavy rainfall.

What is the long-range forecast for the system near the Philippines?

The system near the Philippines could become a tropical storm and may strengthen as it moves into the South China Sea. It is expected to bring significant weather to the region, with the potential to become a typhoon as it progresses.

What is the significance of the fantasy models mentioned in the bulletin?

The fantasy models are speculative and represent long-range forecasts for storm development that are not yet supported by data. The models show two systems potentially forming, one in the Western Pacific and another in the Bay of Bengal, but these predictions are far from certain and require caution.