Will 2024 Change The Face Of Global Politics?
Summary
TLDR2024年は史上最大の選挙年となる。50か国で約20億人の選挙権を持つ人々が投票し、世界全体の41%の人口と42%のGDPを占める。インドとアメリカの民主主義が大きな焦点となる。インドではナレンドラ・モディ首相が3期目を目指し、アメリカではジョー・バイデン大統領が2期目を求める。また、ヨーロッパ連合の超国境選挙も注目される。選挙は民主主義の未来を決める年になるかもしれないと語られている。
Takeaways
- 🗳️ 2024年は史上最大の選挙年と呼ばれる。50か国で約20億人の選挙権を持つ人々が投票を行なう。
- 🌏 これらの投票者が世界の41%の人口と42%のGDPを占めている。
- 🇮🇳 インドとアメリカは、それぞれ世界最大の民主主義国家と最古の民主主義国家として2024年に選挙を実施する。
- 📈 インドでは、1億4千万の人口のうち900万人以上が登録投票者として選挙に参加する。
- 🇺🇸 アメリカでは、1600万人以上の登録投票者が第60代目の大統領を選ぶ。
- 🏛️ インドのナレンドラ・モディ首相は3期目の5年任期を望んでいる。
- 🕋️ アメリカのジョー・バイデン大統領は第2期の任期を獲得を目指している。
- 🏙️ 2024年の選挙は、世界各地の政治的安定や民主主義の未来に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。
- 🤔 選挙は、国家間の貿易、通貨使用、国際協力など、多角的な国際関係に影響を及ぼす。
- 🌍 ヨーロッパ連合は、27か国から成る地域を超えた最大の国境をまたぐ選挙を行ない、400万人以上の投票者が欧州議会の720名の議員を選出する。
- 💡 2024年の選挙は、民主主義の強さと多様性を見せる重要な機会となる。
- 🌱 気候変動は、選挙で議論される重要な問題の一つであり、国際協力の必要性が高まっている。
Q & A
2024年の選挙はなぜ歴史上最大の選挙年とされていますか?
-2024年の選挙は、50か国以上で行われ、世界人口の41%とGDPの42%に相当する20億人の選挙権を持つ人々が投票するため、歴史上最大の選挙年とされています。
インドの総理モディはなぜ3期目を目指していますか?
-インドの総理モディは、国内の支持と政策の継続性のために3期目の5年任期を目指しています。
2024年のアメリカの大統領選挙で何が争われるか?
-2024年のアメリカの大統領選挙では、現在の大統領ジョー・バイデンが2期目の任期を求めている一方で、元大統領ドナルド・トランプも再び執政を目指しています。
欧州連合の選挙はどのように行われますか?
-欧州連合の選挙では、27か国以上の400万人以上の選挙権を持つ人々がヨーロッパ議会の720人の議員を選出します。
2024年の選挙が民主主義の未来を決定するとどう考えるか?
-多くの人々が選挙に参加する意志があることから、民主主義はこれまで以上に活力があると考えられています。2024年の選挙は、民主主義の方向性や未来に大きな影響を与えるでしょう。
南アジアの選挙はインドにどのような影響を与えると予想されますか?
-南アジアの選挙はインドの周辺外交や地域の政治情勢に影響を与える可能性があり、インドの選挙結果もその逆に地域に影響を及ぼすでしょう。
中国の台頭は選挙にどのような影響を与えると予想されますか?
-中国の台頭は選挙の議題となり、一部の国では中国との友好関係を重視する政治家が選ばれる一方、他の国では中国を世界秩序の脅威と見なす政治家が支持される可能性があります。
気候変動は選挙でどの程度の重要性を持つと予想されますか?
-気候変動は国際的な協力を必要とする問題であり、選挙で重要な議題となることが予想されます。さまざまな立場を持つ政治家がこの問題に取り組むでしょう。
アメリカのシンクタンクはインドの選挙にどの程度注目していますか?
-アメリカのシンクタンクはインドの選挙に注目しており、インドの政治動向がアメリカとの関係に影響を与える可能性があるためです。
メキシコの選挙はアメリカにとって重要なのですか?
-はい、メキシコはアメリカの隣国であり、両国間の貿易、安全保障、および移民問題を含む多くの分野で緊密な関係を持ち、メキシコの選挙はアメリカにとって重要な意味を持つでしょう。
2024年の選挙は保守主義の台頭にどのような影響を与えると予想されますか?
-選挙は保守主義の台頭を示す指標となる可能性があり、国内外の政策や国際関係に影響を及ぼすでしょう。
Outlines
🗳️ 2024年の民主主義の大きな選挙年
2024年は、世界史上もっとも大きな選挙年となる。50か国で約20億人の選挙権を持つ人々が投票し、世界総生産の41%を占めることになる。インドの最大民主主義国家とアメリカの最古の民主主義国家がそれぞれ4月、5月、11月に選挙を実施する。インドでは1億4千万の人口のうち900万人以上が投票に登録しており、首相モディは3期目の5年任期を望んでいる。アメリカでは、選挙に登録された1億6千万人以上のアメリカ人が60代目の大統領を選ぶ。現職の大統領バイデンは2期目の任期を獲得を目指し、元大統領トランプは再び非執行役の任期を目指す。さらに、地域の政治的安定化を目指すPakistanの選挙や、ヨーロッパ連合の超国境選挙が行われ、27か国から成る400万人以上の選挙人でヨーロッパ議会の720名の議員が選ばれる。これらの選挙は、民主主義の未来を決める年になるかもしれないと問いかけている。
🌏 国際情勢と選挙の関係性
2024年の選挙は、インドをはじめとする南アジアの3つの主要なブロックで行われ、インドの選挙はG20の10か国とBRICS+の5か国に関心を持っている。インドの選挙は地域の影響力にも影響を与える。G20では、2025年の議長国である南アフリカの選挙にも注目が集まる。BRICS+では、新しいグローバルな勢力関係が形成されている。アメリカの選挙は年末に行われ、インドの選挙は年初に行われ、ロシアや台湾の選挙も注目される。これらの選挙は、世界経済の大きなパワーや新興市場が選挙に参入するため、次の5年間の道を築くものとなっている。民主主義の未来は危険にさらされているわけではない。多くの人々が選挙に参加する意志があることは、民主主義が過去よりも健康であることを示している。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡選挙
💡民主主義
💡GDP
💡インド
💡アメリカ
💡選挙参加者
💡EU選挙
💡政治的安定
💡
💡気候変動
💡中国の台頭
💡保守主義
Highlights
2024 will be the biggest election year in history with 2 billion voters in 50 countries.
Elections will represent 41% of the global population and 42% of the global GDP.
India, the world's largest democracy, and the US, the oldest democracy, will hold elections in April, May, and November respectively.
Over 900 million people are registered to vote in India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes for a third term.
The US will see more than 160 million registered voters choosing their 60th president.
Political stability in Pakistan is a significant question for the upcoming elections.
The European Union will witness the world's biggest transnational elections with over 400 million voters.
The elections will determine the future of democracy, with major implications for global trade and alliances.
Mji Klani, Executive Director of Gateway House, discusses the importance of the elections in defining the world's direction.
India's elections are critical due to its role in G20, BRICS, and its neighborhood's political landscape.
The US elections, being the largest, will set the course for international cooperation and global economic policies.
Climate change is a unifying issue that will likely take center stage in political discussions during the elections.
The rise of China presents a mixed bag of international relations, with varying stances among nations.
Richard Rossow, Chair of US India Policy Studies, emphasizes the importance of nationalism and internationalism in election trends.
Elections in India and Mexico are of particular interest to the US due to strategic and commercial ties.
The future of democracy is not in danger, as the global participation in elections indicates a strong democratic will.
The elections will impact the next five years, setting the direction for international relations and policies.
Transcripts
[Music]
2024 will be the biggest election year
in history 2 billion voters in 50
countries will vote that's 41% of the
global population and 42% of the GDP the
world's largest democracy in India and
the oldest democracy in us will W in
April May and November respectively more
than 900 million people are registered
to vote in India out of the population
of 1.4 billion prime minister Narendra
Modi hopes to be reelected for a third
five-year term Luka polls for 2024 will
be the largest world election
ever more than 160 million registered
Americans will be choosing their 60th US
president incumbent President Joe Biden
hopes to secure a second term in office
while former president Donald Trump is
hoping to secure a second noncon
executive term then there will be
elections in our neighborhood will uh
political stability return to Pakistan
is the big question the European Union
which crosses many borders will witness
the world's biggest transnational
elections more than 400 million voters
will elect 720 members of the European
Parliament across 27 member countries
with so many elections all across the
world question we ask Will 20 24 be the
year that will decide the future of
democracy mji klani is executive
director of Gateway house which is a
foreign policy Think Tank she's joining
me from Columbo manit I appreciate your
time 41% of the world will be polling uh
next year big big elections according to
you what will you be watching out
for Myra thank you very much for having
me on the show well first you know these
a lot of of these are democracies that
are going in uh for elections uh some of
them are semi- democracies But whichever
way it is they are still democracies and
um what we're going to see for India in
particular this is a this is a defining
period for the world because the way the
elections are going to work out these
are big and small countries and we know
now that all countries matter the big
and small the votes in the UN taking
sides Which Way who's going to trade
with the dollar who's not going to do it
Etc uh we know that but for India what's
really really critical is three things
one is we going to have the three major
blocks which are going to have three
leaders six in South Asia right this
next year males has already gone to the
polls and we know how that went which is
not in India's favor 10 countries of the
G20 five of the bricks plus so India has
an interest in all three we've got a own
national election and that will have an
impact on the neighborhood and vice
versa in the G20 India is still part of
the troa South Africa has an election
next year and it's going to be the
president of the G20
2025 and finally there's the bricks plus
and you know there is a new Global game
of foot here so um we have to pay
attention the biggest elections that
really matter is the US elections which
is going to be at the tail end of the
year our elections which is going to be
at the beginning of the year and Russia
is going in for elections um you know
it's a whatever those are Taiwan is
going in for elections so the hot spots
of the world are um and the decision
makers of the world the big economic
powers of the world the big econ
Emerging Markets of the world these are
all going into elections so we have to
see it's going to set the course for the
next 5 years just five years or would
you say that this will decide uh the
future future of
democracy I don't think the future of
democracy is in any danger at all the
very fact that you've got you know
almost half the world going in for
elections I mean this is a wonderful
thing and really democracies are not
perfect things there are semi
democracies there are Quasi democracies
there are slight democracies but the
fact is that there is a will for people
to participate in the elections of their
leaders so I I think democracy is in
fact doing much better now than it has
ever done before all right manit I
appreciate your time we have Richard
Roso he's the chair of us India policy
strategic uh studies which is the center
of strategic and International Studies
joining me from Washington DC Richard I
appreciate your time uh um you know 50
countries going to polls what do you
think will take center stage in the
political
space well there's a lot of issues
obviously that have been driving in
election Trends across the world you
know this uh is gearing towards
nationalism concerns about uh too much
integration too much internationalism
although occasionally bright spots in
France and other places where they push
back against that um but I would say the
one issue whether people like it or not
that really does bring us together is
climate change and there of course you
may have leaders coming in that don't
want to be part of international
cooperation in that front others that
are going to kind of double down a lot
of other issues that elected officials
deal with on global issues the rise of
China is a mixed bag uh some are
actually friendly towards China others
consider China a great threat to the
world order so uh very much a mixed bag
but I think this uh this push and pull
towards conservatism uh and then uh the
need for all countries to work together
on climate change hopefully those will
be two things that uh break in the right
direction with all these massive
elections happening next year okay
Richard in terms of U what are the
elections which are being was watched w
carefully by the US thinkers or experts
how much of Indian elections are of
interest to
you well you know I mean a lot of the uh
elections that are happening next year I
mean you think about some of the
elections uh like in Russia and
Bangladesh uh where we're not expected
to have free and fair elections so I
think we can probably guess who's going
to win those elections uh they don't get
quite as much attention simply because
they're you know Bangladesh is outside
of mostly American mainstream interest
and and Russia uh we think that that's a
bit of a lock but we'll watch a lot more
closely I think the elections in India
um we've had a a good relationship I
think with the mod government on defense
and security to some extent on
Commercial issues but you know concerns
about some of uh some of the political
drivers that Modi has fed into
particularly in times the bjp's been
weak and for us of course Mexico being
our next door neighbor um we've got a
government there today that has been uh
more aggressive and concerned about uh
too much entanglement with the United
States and yet so many us companies have
a dramatic expansion of Supply chains
into Mexico a lot of Americans have
their Heritage for Mexico so keeping a
good relationship with our massive
Southern neighbor and making sure that
both countries keep a relative uh ideal
understanding about border controls is
very important too so um so a lot of
these elections that are happening are
either outside our the the the interest
zone for most Americans uh some we think
we know what's going to happen for some
of the big elections um but I would say
India and Mexico are two that wait
pretty heavily to see what's going to
happen for a lot of Americans all right
Richard Russo appreciate your time
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