Sederet Fakta Defisit APBN 2025: Pendapatan Pajak Turun hingga Ancaman PHK

Summary

Indonesia’s Finance Minister Sri Mulyani confirms the country’s economic stability amid global uncertainty, with strong growth in the balance of payments and a positive trade surplus. However, concerns loom as the 2025 state budget faces a significant deficit, tax revenue drops sharply, and the Rupiah weakens, impacting manufacturing and foreign reserves. Government measures like discounts on electricity and tolls helped curb deflation, but fiscal challenges persist. The government must remain vigilant, balancing public communication with strategic economic policies to manage the growing deficit and maintain fiscal health.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Indonesian economy has remained stable amidst global economic uncertainties, with the balance of payments growing by 15% by the end of 2024.
• 😀 Indonesia's trade balance in January 2025 showed a surplus of IDR 5 trillion, reflecting favorable domestic economic conditions.
• 😀 Deflation in early 2025 was not due to weakened consumer purchasing power but rather government policies, such as 50% discounts on electricity, tolls, and travel tickets ahead of Eid.
• 😀 Finance Minister Sri Mulyani emphasized that Indonesia's economic stability is due to effective government policies and fiscal management.
• 😀 The state budget (APBN) showed a deficit of IDR 31.2 trillion by February 2025, an unusual early-year occurrence compared to previous years' mid-year deficits.
• 😀 Tax revenues fell by 19%, from IDR 269.02 trillion in 2024 to IDR 108.78 trillion in 2025, posing a major challenge to the government’s fiscal balance.
• 😀 The Indonesian government must address the tax shortfall as it is a key source of domestic revenue to avoid worsening the budget deficit.
• 😀 The Rupiah's value continued to weaken in 2025, crossing IDR 16,000 per US dollar and reaching IDR 16,575 in February 2025, raising concerns about the economy’s competitiveness.
• 😀 A depreciating Rupiah has affected Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, particularly those reliant on imported raw materials, leading to reduced productivity and job layoffs.
• 😀 The weakening currency and its impact on foreign exchange reserves pose risks to Indonesia’s ability to manage external debt and maintain investor confidence.

Q & A

What is the current state of Indonesia's economy as mentioned in the transcript?

Indonesia's economy remains stable in early 2025 despite global uncertainties. This stability is reflected in the trade balance and government measures to control inflation.

What steps has the Indonesian government taken to manage inflation?

The government has implemented policies such as offering 50% discounts on electricity rates, tolls, and travel tickets to help manage deflation.

Why was deflation observed in Indonesia in early 2025?

Deflation occurred due to government policies such as discounts on essential services and commodities, not because of a decrease in consumer purchasing power.

What challenges is the Indonesian government facing regarding its state budget (APBN)?

The Indonesian government is facing a budget deficit of Rp31.2 trillion as of February 2025, which is an early deficit compared to previous years when it typically occurred mid-year.

What caused the drop in Indonesia's state revenue, particularly from tax collections?

Indonesia's state revenue from taxes dropped significantly by 30.5% in early 2025, from Rp269.02 trillion in 2024 to Rp108.78 trillion, reflecting a decline in tax receipts.

How is the depreciation of the Rupiah affecting Indonesia's economy?

The depreciation of the Rupiah, which has been hovering around Rp16,000 per USD, has negatively impacted sectors like manufacturing that rely heavily on imported materials, reducing productivity and competitiveness.

What impact is the weakening Rupiah having on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves?

The weakening Rupiah has led to a depletion of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, which are being used to stabilize the currency and pay off foreign debts.

Why is the depreciation of the Rupiah a concern for Indonesia's job market?

The depreciation of the Rupiah is a concern for the job market because it affects the manufacturing sector, leading to reduced productivity, lower competitiveness, and potential layoffs or job losses.

What does the Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani, stress in her statement regarding Indonesia's economic stability?

Sri Mulyani stresses that Indonesia's economy is stable but warns that the government must remain vigilant and continue managing fiscal policies carefully to prevent further deterioration of the economy.

What actions does the Indonesian government need to take to avoid further economic decline?

The government must manage fiscal policies carefully, maintain public communication to avoid market unrest, and work to address the growing deficit and declining revenues to prevent further economic downturn.