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Summary

In this in-depth analysis, the presenter offers a comprehensive forecast for AVAX, covering both technical and fundamental aspects of its price movements. He highlights key price targets, ranging from $65 to $103, with potential for long-term growth up to $280. Emphasizing buying dips and taking profits at strategic levels, the video also draws attention to the importance of market sentiment, particularly funding rates and TVL (Total Value Locked). Additionally, viewers are encouraged to explore copy trading and join a trading school for further learning and community engagement.

Takeaways

• 😀 AVAX's next short-term price target is $65, aligned with its March 2024 peak.
• 😀 AVAX could reach $71 in the short term if key resistance levels are broken.
• 😀 The next medium-term target for AVAX is $94, with a potential to go as high as $103, depending on market conditions.
• 😀 AVAX is currently facing a potential pullback to $38, with a strong buy opportunity if it retraces to this level.
• 😀 The Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a resistance at $94 (618) and a possible push toward $118 as the next key level.
• 😀 There is a major concern about AVAX's declining Total Value Locked (TVL), which has decreased significantly from 2021, signaling potential fundamental issues.
• 😀 The funding rates for AVAX are currently low, suggesting that the market isn't in a high-risk, over-leveraged state, which is bullish for the short-term outlook.
• 😀 Copy trading remains a viable option for automated trading, with algorithms effectively capturing market dips and offering free access to traders.
• 😀 The most important time window for potential market tops will be between March and May 2024. Watch for shifts in funding rates during this period.
• 😀 Be cautious if AVAX reaches new all-time highs (ATH) and consider taking profits. TVL growth will be crucial to maintaining strong market fundamentals.
• 😀 If AVAX does not recover TVL and struggles to surpass its 2021 ATH, its long-term upside could be limited, despite strong technical indicators.

Q & A

What is the current price target for AVAX in the short term?

The immediate price target for AVAX is $65, which aligns with the March 2024 high, as the coin is expected to recover its lost ground relative to Bitcoin.

What is the key technical pattern observed in the AVAX chart?

The key pattern involves a 'weekly low' being reached, followed by a strong buying wick, suggesting that there may be an imbalance being corrected, which could fuel further price increases.

Why is the area below $38 considered important for buying AVAX?

The $38 zone is seen as a strong buy opportunity because it could represent a 'dip' following a potential market correction. It is believed to be an optimal zone for positioning, given the current market reset.

What role do Fibonacci retracements play in AVAX's price prediction?

Fibonacci retracements are used to identify key levels of support and resistance. For AVAX, the 38.2% retracement level is crucial, with the next major target being the 61.8% level around $94.

What is the expected price range for AVAX in the medium term?

In the medium term, the price range for AVAX could extend between $65 and $103, with $103 being a critical resistance level. There is a possibility that AVAX may face challenges breaking past this range.

What is the significance of the funding rate data in this analysis?

The funding rate data provides insights into market sentiment and leverage. When the funding rate reaches high levels (indicating excessive leverage), it often signals an overbought condition and potential market top.

What is the likely window for the market top based on historical trends?

Historically, the window for the market top is between March and May. This is when the market tends to reach its peak, and it is important to monitor funding rates during this period.

What is the risk of aiming for a new all-time high (ATH) for AVAX?

Aiming for a new ATH for AVAX could be risky given the lower TVL (Total Value Locked) compared to 2021. A lack of growth in TVL may indicate reduced long-term usage, which could limit AVAX's price upside.

What other cryptocurrency is mentioned as an example of strong TVL growth?

The script mentions Aptos as an example of a blockchain with a rapidly increasing TVL, contrasting it with AVAX, whose TVL has declined significantly.

What are the potential higher price targets for AVAX beyond $103?

Beyond $103, higher price targets for AVAX include $118, $188, and potentially as high as $297 to $364. However, these targets are speculative and may be difficult to achieve, given the current TVL data.