Using Technology Readiness Level (TRL) to Evaluate Technology Risks

Summary

This video explains the concept of Technology Readiness Levels (TRL), a scale developed by NASA to assess the maturity of new technologies. The TRL scale ranges from TRL 1, where basic principles are observed, to TRL 9, where a technology is fully operational and proven in real-world environments. Through examples like blockchain and concrete innovation, the speaker highlights the risks, costs, and challenges at each level. The video emphasizes the importance of understanding TRL in project management to make informed decisions about adopting new technologies, while also differentiating between 'readiness' and 'fit' for a specific project.

Takeaways

• 😀 TRL (Technology Readiness Levels) is a scale used to measure the maturity of a technology, ranging from scientific research (TRL 1) to fully operational systems (TRL 9).
• 😀 TRL was developed by NASA in the 1970s and became an ISO standard in 2013. It helps assess when a technology is ready for commercial deployment.
• 😀 The early stages of TRL (1-3) are highly research-focused, with very high risks and low costs. Technologies at these levels are often speculative or experimental.
• 😀 TRL 1 involves basic scientific observations, TRL 2 is when concepts are formulated, and TRL 3 is where experimental proof of concept is developed.
• 😀 TRL 4 marks the stage where the technology is validated in a lab environment, and TRL 5 involves validation in a relevant environment with higher costs and risks.
• 😀 TRL 6 is the prototype phase, where the technology is tested in real-world conditions. Prototypes are built and tested, which requires significant resources.
• 😀 The transition from TRL 4 to TRL 6 is often referred to as the 'technology valley,' where high risks and costs make it a difficult stage for many projects.
• 😀 TRL 7 demonstrates the technology in an operational environment, typically through pilot programs or limited deployments. Risks are reduced, but costs are high.
• 😀 TRL 8 is when the technology is complete and qualified, ready for mass production and deployment. It is highly refined and tested under real-world conditions.
• 😀 TRL 9 is when the technology is fully proven in an operational environment, marking the transition from development to regular use and commercial deployment.
• 😀 It's important to differentiate between 'readiness' (how developed a technology is) and 'fit' (how suitable the technology is for a specific organization or project).

Q & A

What is the Technology Readiness Level (TRL)?

The Technology Readiness Level (TRL) is a scale developed by NASA in the 1970s to assess the maturity of a technology. It ranges from TRL 1 (basic principles observed) to TRL 9 (technology proven in an operational environment).

Why was the TRL scale developed?

The TRL scale was developed by NASA to evaluate when a spacecraft or space-related technology is ready for commercial operations. It helps in assessing whether a technology is sufficiently mature for use in real-world projects.

How is the TRL scale divided and what does each level represent?

The TRL scale is divided into nine levels. TRL 1 is the observation of basic principles, TRL 2 is concept formulation, TRL 3 is experimental proof of concept, and levels 4 to 6 cover lab validation, prototype testing, and operational environment simulations. TRL 7 to 9 are about full deployment, development, and operational use.

What is the primary difference between TRL 1-3 and TRL 4-6?

TRL 1-3 are early research and development stages where technologies are conceptual, experimentally validated, or tested in labs. TRL 4-6 focus on refining and testing prototypes in relevant or simulated environments, with increasing costs and reduced risk.

What challenges do technologies face in the TRL 4-6 range?

Technologies in TRL 4-6 face the challenge of high costs and considerable risk. This stage, known as the 'technology valley,' is where many projects stop due to the uncertainty of success and the significant investment required to continue development.

Why is the 'technology valley' important?

The 'technology valley' is a critical phase where technologies require substantial investment to progress, but the risks remain high. Many projects fail at this stage due to the inability to secure sufficient funding or the failure of prototypes.

How do costs and risks evolve across the TRL scale?

At lower TRL levels, costs are low but risks are high. As the technology matures through the TRL scale, the cost increases, but the risks decrease, especially once prototypes are tested and the technology is deployed in real-world environments.

What is the difference between 'fit' and 'readiness' in technology adoption?

Readiness (TRL) refers to how mature a technology is and how ready it is for operational use, while fit refers to how well the technology suits a specific project or organization's needs. A technology can be mature (high TRL) but may not be a perfect fit for a particular use case.

How does the TRL scale help in technology adoption and project management?

The TRL scale helps project managers assess whether a technology is ready for adoption by providing a clear understanding of the technology's maturity. It enables them to make informed decisions about the level of investment, risk, and the stage of development required before deployment.

Can technologies at lower TRL levels be adopted for projects?

Technologies at lower TRL levels (such as TRL 1-3) are usually too risky to be used in commercial projects due to their early-stage development. They are more suitable for research and exploratory purposes, but the risk of failure is high.