How China viewed Trump, Harris & the 2024 US Presidential Elections

Summary

Dr. Sah Hashmi analyzes China’s reaction to the 2024 US Presidential Election, highlighting the nation’s intense focus on the outcome and its potential impact on US-China relations. With millions of posts on Chinese social media discussing the election, the Chinese public is split on the candidates. Kamala Harris is viewed as a stable and serious figure, while Donald Trump is seen as unpredictable and chaotic. Regardless of the winner, Chinese analysts expect US policy towards China to remain competitive, with Trump’s return potentially intensifying economic and geopolitical challenges for China.

Takeaways

• 😀 China is closely following the 2024 US presidential election due to its potential impact on US-China relations and China's global influence.
• 😀 Chinese social media has seen a massive surge in discussions about the US election, with over 3 million posts on Weibo alone.
• 😀 The election is viewed in China not only as a domestic US matter but also as a key factor in shaping the Indo-Pacific region and global geopolitical dynamics.
• 😀 There is a split in Chinese perceptions of the two major US candidates, with Kamala Harris seen as a more serious, economic-focused leader, while Donald Trump is viewed as a showman with a theatrical approach.
• 😀 Chinese internet users and analysts are discussing the US election as chaotic, contrasting it with China's more controlled one-party system.
• 😀 Key moments from the election, such as American shopkeepers preparing for potential unrest, are widely discussed in China as they reflect vulnerabilities in democratic systems.
• 😀 Despite differing personalities, both Harris and Trump are seen as maintaining a tough stance on China, with the US-China rivalry expected to continue regardless of who wins.
• 😀 Chinese analysts do not expect a major shift in US policy toward China under either candidate, but Trump's unpredictability is seen as creating unique challenges, particularly for Chinese businesses.
• 😀 Trump is expected to continue aggressive policies toward China, including the trade war, which many in China view as a negative development.
• 😀 The feeling in China is that the rivalry with the US will persist, with Trump seen as more chaotic and difficult to navigate than Harris, who was anticipated to offer more continuity in US-China relations.
• 😀 Overall, China expects sustained competition with the US, regardless of the outcome, and anticipates that relations will be more challenging under a second Trump administration.

Q & A

Why is China paying close attention to the 2024 US presidential election?

China is closely monitoring the election due to its significant impact on US-China relations and the broader geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The outcome will shape China's global influence and its strategic positioning in the world.

How does the Chinese public view Kamala Harris and Donald Trump differently?

Kamala Harris is perceived in China as a serious, dedicated politician focused on economic recovery, while Donald Trump is seen as a more theatrical and unpredictable figure. This has led to contrasting opinions on both candidates, with Harris viewed as more stable and Trump as chaotic.

What is the significance of the global support for Trump and Harris as perceived in China?

In China, Trump’s support from right-wing governments, like Hungary’s president, contrasts with Harris’s domestic support in the US. This reflects the divided global and domestic perceptions of both candidates, adding complexity to China’s view of the election.

How do Chinese analysts compare the US democratic process with China's political system?

Chinese analysts contrast the messy and chaotic nature of American democracy, especially the unpredictability of the election, with China’s controlled and stable one-party system. They see this unpredictability in the US as a vulnerability not experienced in China’s more authoritarian governance model.

Why has the image of American shopkeepers preparing for civil unrest become a focal point in Chinese discussions?

The image of American businesses barricading their shops in anticipation of potential civil unrest reflects the vulnerabilities in the US democratic system. Chinese commentators have focused on these visuals to underscore the instability and unpredictability that they believe democracy brings, in contrast to China’s political stability.

What is the general expectation in China regarding US-China relations regardless of who wins the election?

Chinese analysts expect that the rivalry between the US and China will persist, regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the election. Both candidates are seen as likely to maintain a tough stance on China, ensuring continued competition and strategic rivalry.

How is Donald Trump’s unpredictability viewed in China, and what challenges does it present?

Trump’s unpredictability is viewed as a unique challenge for China, particularly for Chinese businesses involved in technology transfer and trade. His erratic approach during his first term caused disruptions, and his re-election is expected to create more uncertainty in US-China relations.

What difference does China expect if Harris were elected instead of Trump?

If Kamala Harris were elected, China expected a continuation of Biden-era policies, which could have brought more stability to US-China relations. Harris was perceived as less adversarial compared to Trump, with the possibility of managing the rivalry through competition rather than escalating conflict.

What is the prevailing sentiment in China regarding the outcome of the 2024 US election?

The prevailing sentiment in China is that the rivalry between the US and China will continue, no matter who wins the election. However, with Trump’s potential re-election, the relationship is expected to be more chaotic and unpredictable, creating challenges for China in navigating future diplomatic and economic interactions.

How do Chinese policymakers view the broader impact of the US election on US-China relations?

Chinese policymakers believe that, regardless of the winner, the US-China rivalry will endure. The election’s impact is seen more as a shift in style than substance, with the strategic trajectory of competition expected to remain intact. If Trump is re-elected, the relationship is predicted to become even more unpredictable and difficult to manage.