Why are Excess Deaths Considered as Inconvenient Facts?

Summary

Dr. Philip McMillan discusses the controversial topic of excess deaths related to COVID-19, suggesting that the recent shift in statistical methodology by the UK's Office for National Statistics may be an attempt to downplay the issue. He warns that despite changes in how excess mortality is calculated, the significant rise in economically inactive people due to long-term sickness cannot be ignored. McMillan emphasizes the importance of acknowledging and addressing the potential causes behind these alarming numbers, rather than avoiding the 'elephant in the room,' for the sake of public health and the well-being of the population.

Takeaways

• 📈 Dr. Philip McMillan discusses the topic of excess deaths related to COVID-19, suggesting it's an inconvenient truth that has been largely ignored.
• 🔍 He highlights the potential for a statistical trap in the way excess deaths are being discussed and calculated, cautioning his audience to be aware of this.
• 📉 The UK's Office for National Statistics has changed its methodology for estimating excess deaths, which could affect the interpretation of current trends.
• 🤔 Dr. McMillan questions the timing and rationale behind the change in statistical methods, especially considering the ongoing debate about excess deaths.
• 📅 A comparison of the old and new methods for calculating excess deaths is provided, showing a divergence in the numbers since 2019.
• 📊 The new statistical model is more complex, which could make it difficult for the general public to understand and potentially be used to downplay the issue.
• 😷 There is a noted increase in the number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK, which is a cause for concern.
• 📚 Dr. McMillan is preparing a comprehensive package on general immunity and the immune system's role in COVID-19, particularly concerning cytokine storms.
• 📢 He emphasizes the importance of not ignoring the issue of excess deaths and the need for transparency and acknowledgment to address it properly.
• 👥 The impact of excess deaths is not limited to numbers; it affects friends, family, workers, and co-workers, making it a pressing societal issue.
• ⏳ Dr. McMillan predicts that the current methodologies will have to be changed again within six months due to the persistently high numbers of sick people, indicating that the issue of excess deaths is not going away.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?

The main topic of discussion is the issue of excess deaths related to COVID-19 and the changes in the methodology for estimating excess mortality in the UK.

Who is Dr. Philip McMillan and what is his focus?

Dr. Philip McMillan is a speaker in the transcript who has been discussing COVID-19 since early 2020, with a focus on autoimmunity and raising awareness about important and often overlooked topics related to the disease.

What does Dr. McMillan refer to as the 'elephant in the room'?

The 'elephant in the room' refers to the ignored yet obvious issue of excess deaths potentially linked to COVID-19 policies and their broader health impacts.

What change did the UK's Office for National Statistics make regarding the estimation of excess deaths?

The Office for National Statistics changed the statistical model used to estimate excess deaths, moving from a simple five-year average to a more complex average that accounts for trends in population size, aging, and mortality rates.

Why does Dr. McMillan suggest that the recent decision to debate excess deaths could be a trap?

Dr. McMillan suggests it could be a trap because the new, more complex statistical model may be used to argue that there are no excess deaths, thereby dismissing the need for further investigation or discussion.

What is the 'Frontiers in Immunity' event mentioned by Dr. McMillan?

The 'Frontiers in Immunity' event is part of the advanced COVID-360 presentation series where Dr. McMillan aims to present comprehensive research related to general immunity and the immune system's response to COVID-19.

What does Dr. McMillan believe is the significance of the rising number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK?

Dr. McMillan believes this unprecedented rise indicates a serious issue that needs to be addressed, as it suggests a large number of people are becoming sick, which inevitably leads to excess deaths that cannot be ignored or hidden by methodological changes.

Why does Dr. McMillan think that the issue of excess deaths is not going away?

Dr. McMillan thinks the issue is not going away because the number of people getting sick and dying is high and unprecedented, and it has been rising since 2020, which suggests an ongoing problem that requires acknowledgment and mitigation.

What is the 'debate' that Dr. McMillan anticipates will occur around excess deaths?

The debate Dr. McMillan anticipates will focus on whether the new statistical model accurately represents the current situation regarding excess deaths, and whether the high numbers of economically inactive people due to sickness are related to COVID-19 or other factors.

What is the potential 'trap' Dr. McMillan refers to in the context of the new statistical model for estimating excess deaths?

The potential 'trap' is that the new model could be used to argue that excess deaths are not as high as previously thought, which could be misleading and used to end discussions or avoid addressing the underlying health issues.

Why is Dr. McMillan concerned about the timing of the change in the statistical model for estimating excess deaths?

Dr. McMillan is concerned because the change was made at a time when there is significant public and political scrutiny over excess deaths, which raises questions about the motivations behind the change and whether it is intended to influence the debate.