Why you should love statistics | Alan Smith

Summary

The speaker discusses the UK government's alarming discovery in 2003 that nearly half of working-age adults lacked basic numeracy skills, a problem that persisted in 2011. They highlight that numeracy is not just an English issue, with the USA and other OECD countries also struggling. The speaker challenges the notion that people are either good with numbers or not, advocating for the inspiration that numbers can provide. They share their experience with statistics, which, despite its image problem, is powerful when it surprises us, and introduces a quiz designed to engage people with local census data, showing how even those proficient in numbers can be surprised by statistics.

Takeaways

• 📊 The UK government was alarmed to find in 2003 that nearly half of working-age adults lacked basic numeracy skills, and surprisingly, the number increased to 49% in 2011.
• 🌍 Numeracy issues are not unique to the UK; the USA and seven other OECD countries have over 20% of young people with low numeracy skills.
• 🤔 The speaker challenges the common dichotomy that there are only two types of people: those who are comfortable with numbers and those who are not.
• 📈 Statistics, despite having an image problem, are powerful when they reveal surprising insights about how we as a group relate to our community.
• 😮 There is a significant gap between public perception and reality, as shown by surveys conducted by Ipsos MORI, indicating a widespread misperception of demographic facts.
• 🧐 People are generally poor intuitive statisticians, influenced by individual experiences and media reporting, which often focuses on exceptions rather than the norm.
• 📚 Daniel Kahneman's research highlights the human tendency to be blind to the obvious and to our own blindness, which can have serious implications for decision-making.
• 🌐 The speaker's quiz, designed to gauge local area knowledge, uses a visual method of representing numbers inspired by Otto Neurath's isotypes, making it accessible to a wide audience.
• 🎯 The quiz's gamification of data and use of animation to reveal the gap between perception and reality sparked widespread public engagement and discussion.
• 😄 Even people who are good with numbers, such as the national statistician of England and Wales, can be surprised by the quiz's results, showing that numbers can inspire and surprise everyone.
• 📉 The speaker concludes that statistics are not just the science of uncertainty but the science of us, emphasizing the importance of being fascinated by numbers.

Q & A

What was the purpose of the UK government's survey conducted in 2003?

The survey was conducted to measure levels of numeracy in the population and was particularly focused on assessing the ability of adults to deal with fractions, percentages, and decimals.

What was the shocking finding from the 2003 numeracy survey in the UK?

The survey revealed that for every 100 working-age adults in the UK, 47 lacked Level 1 numeracy skills, which is equivalent to a low-end GCSE score.

How did the UK government respond to the findings of the 2003 numeracy survey?

The government responded by changing policies and making investments to improve numeracy skills, which led to the survey being conducted again in 2011.

What was the outcome of the numeracy survey when it was repeated in 2011?

Surprisingly, the number of adults lacking Level 1 numeracy skills increased slightly from 47 to 49 percent.

What is the significance of the humor in the script regarding the numeracy survey results?

The humor serves to highlight the gravity of the numeracy issue in a light-hearted way, making the audience more receptive to the discussion of a serious problem.

What is the speaker's stance on the categorization of people into two groups based on their comfort with numbers?

The speaker believes that this categorization is a false dichotomy and that it's not an immutable pairing, suggesting that one does not need to have high levels of numeracy to be inspired by numbers.

What is the speaker's opinion on the role of statistics in our lives?

The speaker believes that statistics are important because they are about us as a group and as social animals, we have a fascination with how we relate to our groups and peers.

Why does the speaker think statistics can be powerful?

Statistics can be powerful when they surprise us, revealing a disconnect between our perceptions and the reality as given by the data.

What is the discrepancy between public perception and official figures in the Ipsos MORI survey about the Muslim population in England and Wales?

The public perception was that 24 out of every 100 people in England and Wales are Muslim, while the official figures reveal that the actual number is about five.

What is the purpose of the 'How well do you know your area?' quiz mentioned in the script?

The quiz aims to engage people with local census data in a fun and interactive way, using gamification and animation to reveal misconceptions about their local area.

What was the public's reaction to the 'How well do you know your area?' quiz?

The reaction was overwhelmingly positive, with a quarter of a million people playing the quiz within 48 hours of its launch, sparking discussions on social media and even being shared with politicians.

What is the final message the speaker wants to convey about statistics?

The speaker's final message is that statistics should not be seen as the science of uncertainty but rather as the science of us, emphasizing that everyone can be fascinated and surprised by numbers.