Cracks Appearing in the Markets Foundation
Summary
TLDR2024年4月18日の「Trading Places live」で、市場戦略家のTom Bowyer氏は、先日の市場動向と今後の見通しについて語りました。株価は小幅で上昇しているものの、下落トレンドにあるため、朝の上昇は信頼性がないと指摘。鉄道大手のCSXの好調な四半期決算にもかかわらず、輸送業は弱体化している。経済報告では、失業保険申請が良好だが、住宅市場は弱気で金利の上昇が影響を及ぼしている可能性がある。また、10年債利回りが急落したにもかかわらず、小資本株式は上昇しなかった点に注意を傾ける。セクター別に見ると、航空業界は好調だが、半導体や輸送業は弱い。特に、JB Huntの四半期決算が悪く、輸送グループ全体を引き下げた。テクノロジーは金利上昇の影響を受けにくいと思われるが、最近は弱くなっている。市場は売り圧であり、ボラティリティ指数(VIX)が20を超えると急速な売出が起こり得るという懸念も。長期間投資家は問題ないと見ているが、トレーダーは市場の変動に注意し、リスク管理が必要であると結論づける。
Takeaways
- 📈 株式市場は、昨晩の弱い終値から今朝は小幅な上昇幅で始まりましたが、市場はまだ底をつき始めたとは言えません。
- 🚂 CSXという大手鉄道会社の業績が予想を上回りましたが、輸送業は依然として弱く、特にトラック運送会社のJB Huntの業績が悪く、市場を押し下げています。
- 🏡 住宅市場の弱さも経済への影響が懸念されます。既存住宅販売の結果が注目されます。
- 📉 ナスダックは昨晩大幅に下落しましたが、技術銘柄は比較的強い勢いを保ちました。
- 📊 経済報告は大抵が好調を維持していますが、住宅建設の弱さは金利の上昇が経済に影響を及ぼしている可能性を示唆しています。
- 🔽 10年債利回りが24時間で4.69%から4.57%に下落しましたが、小型株式市場は上昇しませんでした。
- 🚨 VIX(ボラティリティ指数)が20を超えると、市場はさらに急速に売出しが加速する可能性があります。
- 📊 セミコンダクターグループは50日移動平均を下回り、売出の兆しが見られます。
- 📉 輸送業は154ドルを下回り、重要なサポートレベルを失いました。
- 🛫 航空業界は輸送業の中で唯一好調で、大きな上昇幅を記録しました。
- ⏳ 連邦準備制度理事会(FED)はインフレーションを抑制し続ける必要がありますが、経済への影響を監視する必要があります。
Q & A
トム・ボウイ氏は、どのようなポジションをしていますか?
-トム・ボウイ氏は、市場戦略家の首席であり、Earnings Beatsという会社の代表です。
トムがホストする番組は何日で何分間ですか?
-トムがホストする番組は、木曜日に放送され、約30分間です。
株式市場の先行きはどのようにですか?
-先行きは小幅で上がっており、ダウ平均は2/10から3/10の1%程度上昇していますが、トムはこれほどの上昇は底堅くないと考えています。
CSXという鉄道会社の業績はどうでしたか?
-CSXは、予想よりも1セント上回る利益を報告し、売上の期待を満たしましたが、株価は少し上がったに過ぎません。
トムが懸念している経済指標は何ですか?
-トムは、輸送業の弱さ、初期失業保険請求件数、フィラデルフィア連邦準備銀行製造業指数、既存住宅販売、リード指標、そして10年債利回りに懸念しています。
トムはなぜ10年債利回りが下がったのに小型株式市場が上がらなかったことに困惑していますか?
-トムは、10年債利回りが下がったにもかかわらず小型株式市場が上がらなかったことに困惑しており、これは通常の市場の動きと異なります。
トムが今後の市場に注意を喚起しているポイントは何ですか?
-トムは、VIX(ボラティリティ指数)が20を超えた場合に注意を喚起しており、これは市場がさらに下落する可能性があることを意味します。
トムはどのようにして市場のリスクを管理していますか?
-トムは、テクニカルアナライズを用いてリスクを管理し、重要なサポートレベルやVIXの動向を監視しています。また、ストップロスの設定も重要だと述べています。
トムは長期間的な投資家としてどのような姿勢をとっていますか?
-トムは、長期間的な投資家として非常に楽観的であり、桁外れた利益を期待していませんが、市場が今後5~10年間で問題になる兆しは見えていないと述べています。
トムが今後の市場で注目している企業は哪家ですか?
-トムは、Netflix、Microsoft、Appleなどの大型テック企業の今後の業績発表に注目しています。
トムはなぜ交通运输業の動向に注目していますか?
-トムは、交通运输業が経済の健康を示す指標であるとみなしており、特にトラック運送会社のJB Huntの業績が交通运输業全体に影響を与えると述べています。
Outlines
📈 市場の動向と見通し
2024年4月18日の「Trading Places live」で、トム・ボウイは市場の前日動向と今日の予想を解説。先日の終値が低かったにもかかわらず、先物市場は微小ながら上昇。しかし、通常は下落トレンドの朝の進歩は信頼性がなく、本日もその傾向が続く可能性がある。鉄道大手のCSXの好調な業績と、輸送指数の低下が触れられた。また、経済報告書が強い結果を示しており、既存の家屋販売の弱さと住宅建設の弱さに懸念を示している。10年国債利回りの変動にも注目し、その影響を分析している。
📉 輸送業界と航空業界の動向
トムは輸送業界、特にトラック運送会社のJB Huntの業績が悪く、その影響で輸送業界全体が弱っていると指摘。一方、航空業界はU.S. Airの好調な結果により、大きな上昇幅を示した。技術業界は高い金利の懸念にもかかわらず、比較的強い状態を維持しているが、昨日は他のセクターよりも弱かった。半導体グループは50日間移動平均を下回り、市場の見通しを懸念にさせる。
🚨 市場のリスク管理とシグナル
トムは、長期的な投資家とトレーダーが異なるアプローチを取るべきだと強調。特にトレーダーは、市場のリスクを管理し、サポートレベルとVIXを監視する必要がある。VIXが20を超えると、市場は急速に売出される可能性がある。また、10年国債利回りが重要で、470%のレベルを突破すると株式価格が下落する可能性がある。
📊 チャート分析と市場の状況
トムは、市場のチャートを分析し、セクターごとの状況を評価。ナスdaq 100は重要な移動平均を下回り、20週移動平均に近づいている。セミコンダクターは50日の移動平均を下回り、売出の兆しがある。一方で、長期的な見通しは依然として好調であり、市場はまだ20週移動平均をテストしていない。
📌 重要なサポートレベルとリスク
トムは、重要なサポートレベルとリスク管理の重要性を強調。特に輸送グループ、特にトラック運送会社のリスクに注意を払うべきであり、CSXのチャートを分析し、その状況を解説。また、iwmの時間足チャートでのポジティブ・ダイバージェンスについても触れ、そのリスクを説明している。
📝 CSXの業績と市場の反応
CSXの業績が発表され、予想を上回った結果であった。しかし、トムは技術的な指標が改善されるまで、市場に注意を払うべきだとアドバイス。また、今後のスケジュールやサービスの変更についても触れ、今後の予定を説明している。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡トレンド
💡サポートレベル
💡ボラティリティインデックス(VIX)
💡10年国債利回り
💡earnings
💡セクター
💡チャート
💡ポジション
💡ディバレンス
💡セキュラブルブルマーケット
Highlights
Good morning and welcome to the April 18th, 2024 edition of Trading Places live with Tom Bowyer, Chief Market Strategist at Earnings Beats.
Futures are up across the board, but only fractionally, with the Dow leading and NASDAQ slightly behind.
CSX, one of the big railroads, reported earnings ahead of expectations, but the stock market reaction was muted.
Transports broke down below significant support levels, indicating poor performance in the sector.
Economic reports have been strong, with initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index beating expectations.
Housing starts were weak, suggesting higher interest rates may be impacting the economy.
The 10-year treasury yield dropped significantly, but small caps like the IWM did not respond with a price increase.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all closed down, with technology and real estate sectors underperforming.
Airlines were the best performing group, up almost 6%, despite the overall downturn in the transport sector.
JB Hunt's earnings report was the worst of the quarter, significantly missing revenue and earnings expectations.
Semiconductors closed below the 50-day moving average, signaling a potential shift in the group's performance.
The VIX volatility index is being closely watched, with a level above 20 indicating increased risk of a market sell-off.
Long-term investors are advised not to worry about current market fluctuations, while traders should be cautious and protect capital.
The NASDAQ 100 and other indices are down below key moving averages, with the 20-week EMA being a significant support level to watch.
Tom Bowyer remains bullish in the long term, despite short-term bearish signals and potential for a market correction.
CSX earnings report is discussed, with the stock up despite the broader transport sector's downturn.
The importance of technical analysis in managing risk is emphasized, especially when facing significant market support level breakdowns.
Positive divergence on the IWM hourly chart is highlighted, but its reliability is questioned given the market's close at the low.
Tom Bowyer's schedule for the upcoming weekends is outlined, with potential adjustments to the regular content offerings.
Transcripts
hey good morning everybody and welcome
to this Thursday April 18th 2024 edition
of Trading Places live I'm Tom bowy
Chief Market strategist here at earnings
beats and I'll be your host for the next
30 minutes or so as we uh take a look at
the action from yesterday and look ahead
to what we might expect today uh future
or well Futures right now are actually
up across the board but uh just
fractionally so
about 2 to 3/10 of 1% uh Dow leading uh
and I believe the NASDAQ may have been
uh lagered this morning but they're all
fairly close um usually that's not the
way bottoms are carved uh though
normally when we finish on lows like we
saw yesterday normally we have we at
least go down and put it in intraday low
so I generally don't trust these uh you
know morning uh advances uh when you're
in a downtrend but uh we'll see how
things shap out today uh more and more
earnings coming out um CSX one of the
big railroads reported yesterday after
the Bell came in ahead of expectations
on earnings by a penny beat revenues
stock is up a little bit but uh that's a
a chart that we're going to be looking
at a little bit later in the show uh not
looking good transports broke down
yesterday not just below the 154 level
that I was watching but also that 152
level which I thought was a much much
more important level so transports not
performing well can't really sugarcoat
that one again we'll look at that chart
in just a bit as well economic reports
continue for the most part to come in
pretty strong initial jobless claims
this morning I think we're at 212,000
we're expecting
215,000 came in better than expected we
had the Philadelphia fed Manufacturing
Index that came in ahead of expectations
um we do have existing home sales out
later this morning at 10: a.m. and it
was on Tuesday that we came up with very
very weak um housing starts and building
permits housing starts were really weak
um so higher interest rates for longer
may be starting to have a little bit of
an impact on the economy and this is
going to be
a uh you know a little dance I think
that the fed's going to have to do if
they want to remain adamant against
inflation and if they truly believe
inflation could continue to be a problem
or could even you know begin to
accelerate again I do agree that that is
their first mandate they have to take
care of you cannot let inflation get
away um but I'm starting to see a little
bit more cracks in the foundation uh
especially when you look at that housing
starts number um and some you know other
other things you know through the
economic reports that really make me a
little bit nervous um got a like I said
we've got uh the existing home sales out
later this morning and then we also have
leading indicators both of those will be
out at 10: a.m. eastern uh be a good
idea maybe to check to see how both
those come in and how the market reacts
to it another big story right now is the
10-year treasury yield I'll be honest I
was really perplexed yesterday uh maybe
even shocked to see over a 24-hour
period the 10-year treasury yield drop
from
4.69% down to
4.57% and the iwm didn't budge to the
upside very little actually had a little
Spike but 24 hours apart uh 10-year
treasury yield was down 12 basis points
and the iwm which has been almost
perfectly inverse over the last several
months uh with that 10-year treasury
yield small caps did not use that drop
in rates uh to bid up uh those small cap
shares so uh that'll be another thing
I'll be watching today because all of a
sudden uh that did not trigger uh any
buying in the small cap space anyhow
let's go ahead and take look at uh what
happened yesterday and uh and then we'll
take a look at some of the charts
heading into today so the Dow Jones
indust average yesterday down 45 points
we had the S&P 500 down 29 that was down
about 610 of 1% on the S&P 500 so we're
back down to
5,22 which is a little bit more than 4%
the NASDAQ down 220 points yesterday
down
1.24% and from the high the nasdaq's
down more like 5 5% uh midcaps down 8/10
of 1% small caps down
1.06% transports down 1.7% and there you
can see all of these prior support
levels and there were about five or six
of them between 152 and 154 and
literally just this week taken out all
of it to the downside and notice that
volume really accelerated yesterday ad
line really weak much weaker than just
about any of the other indices so it's
hard to argue bullishly right now for
transports especially seeing that price
breakdown uh yesterday we need a quick
bounceback reversing candle something on
the transportation group uh utilities
down excuse me up 2% that was the big
winner yesterday while technology and
real estate were the losers technology
actually held up pretty well especially
when you start talking about higher
rates um due to possible you know
reacceleration of inflation normally you
would think that would really impact
technology but it had held up really
well yesterday though was an exception
uh technology did actually underperform
all of the other 10 sectors dropping
1.44% in the process real estate though
just continues to be weak uh continues
to weaken further and further and is
clearly now at a 2024 low um and really
the lowest level we've seen since back
in November
of uh late November
2023 uh Airlines this was interesting
because transports took a big hit
Airlines were the best group yesterday
up almost 6% so really big move there to
the upside uh U had reported strong
results U and I don't remember where or
I didn't see where it finished but I
know inaday U had had a really good day
um anyway Airlines up almost 6%
yesterday but look at the truckers JB
Hunt
uh at this point I would probably give
jbht which is a transportation a
trucking group or Trucking Company um I
would probably give them the award for
the worst earnings report so far in the
quarter they missed uh revenues they
missed uh by quite a bit on earnings and
I think they took the entire group down
with them yesterday so if you're
wondering why transports broke down you
can blame it maybe generally on the
truckers and more specifically on JB
Hunt uh semiconductors down closing
below that 50-day moving average so this
is a group down 3.58% yesterday it's
been on fire since October of last year
it's really been on fire for a lot
longer than that but that run that we
had from late October 2023 through
February 2024 it was led by the
semiconductor group and now we are
certainly seeing that change a little
bit um which is okay um you know group's
not going to go up what was it went up
um probably
about I'm kind of guessing here but it
looks like 80% maybe
85% in four or five months that's
unsustainable I mean you can't go up 80
85% every five months so this is a group
that needed some consolidation it's been
sideways consolidating but I think
yesterday was the first signal that
maybe we're going to see a little bit
more selling in that group than what
we've been uh accustomed to um so again
borrowing or borrowing a really big
reversing candle today or sometime soon
uh getting back up above that 50-day
moving average I'm not saying there's
going to be a massive selloff in
semiconductors but it does look like
wherever we go on this move to the
downside is probably best case going to
establish a low in a period of
consolidation that's what you want as a
bull is to sett a low come back up go
through the moving averages and maybe
for the next few months just kind of go
sideways uh worst case obviously is that
this uh move back through the 50-day
triggers a lot more selling ahead and I
think all of that this that I've talked
about which there are definitely more
warning signs uh no doubt about it um
all of this combined with a volatility
index uh that climbs above 20 it hasn't
done that yet but if it does with some
of these breakdowns we could see selling
accelerate rather rapidly so what I've
been saying long-term investors if I'm
in this for the Long Haul and I'm not
worried about the market for the next 5
10 years I'm doing nothing uh I see
nothing that suggests this is going to
be a long-term problem if I am a Trader
however and you want to maintain Capital
you don't really want to ride longs to
the downside or very long no pun
intended um so you got to watch key
support levels you've got to watch that
vix um yesterday I thought was a prime
time to take a shot with leverage on the
small cap index thinking that we were
going to possibly get a reversal 10year
treasury yield hit resistance the vix
was up against 20 resistance um and of
course the 10year treasury yield did
come down there was also a positive
Divergence on the iwm on an hourly chart
so as it's been coming down coming down
that hourly p been going with it well on
that last low yesterday we actually had
the PO turning up on the hourly so the
the iwm was showing me signs that hey
this could be an opportunity um if that
short-term positive Divergence started
to move back or started to um generate
more interest in the iwm and it started
to gain some ground that along with
maybe the vix coming back down from 20
the uh 10-year treasury yield coming
back down from Key resistance after it
made its cup with handle measurement all
of those things were suggesting okay now
is a pretty good time but as I mentioned
the members I I got in but and this was
discussed during our live trading room
yesterday but I was keeping a very very
tight stop I wanted to see that reversal
late in the day we didn't get it we
actually closed on the low so that TNA
position that I had was in and out same
day um and I went back into the iwm and
at this point if that vix closes above
20 I'm going to be out personally I
don't mess with a vix over 20 if it
reverses and the vix comes back down
below 20 and I have to buy in one two 3%
higher so be it what I'm guarding
against is a much much bigger move where
this could evolve like last summer into
a correction of 10% maybe more I don't
have a crystal ball um my signals are
not telling me it's going to be that but
when you get into a period where
expecting a decline and that's what I
was expecting in March I was looking for
about four or five% that's where we are
right now which is fine the S&P 500 well
let's go ahead and look at some of these
charts rather than just talk about it
I'll show you it on the charts 10year
treasury yield let's get a quick update
this morning so right now we are up a
little bit back to
4.61% uh that is up about 2 and a half
almost three basis points um we'll see
whether or not we can get back through
that 470 level
I think and and you can see this 470
level right here we gap down going to
zero in here so we gap down see if I can
get it all on one screen no I'm not
going to be able to anyway here's that
470 level over here so we gap down to
470 the yield drops we ended up coming
back a couple weeks later where did we
test 470 before we then broke down and
started this downtrend now we've come
all the way up we had the cup I've
talked about this the breakout on the
cup measured to 4 66 we closed at 466
and we also tested intraday 470 this is
a big level shortterm it's not as big as
5% but this is the next biggest level
right here at 470 so can we get through
if we do and that means bonds are being
sold now you sell bonds usually and
drive rates higher if you're worried
about inflation you don't want to hold a
4% or 4 and a half% bond if you think
inflation is going to pick back up from
the current level which is around 3.6
3.7 annual rate if that's going back up
you know back into the fours or even
into the fives and you're holding a 4.6%
10-year treasury yield you're not making
any money you're losing money actually
so um it's interesting to watch right
now as the folk as folks have been
selling these bonds and sending the
yields higher watch 470 I think that's
key short-term support I think if we go
through five or excuse me 470 I I think
we go back up to test five and if that
happens my guess is equity prices are
going to be
lower so watch 470 that would be another
clue that would not be good for stocks
um the vix at
20 um let's pull this back I'm going to
go ahead and pull up the
vix so you can see we moved up looks
like maybe we're rolling over but I've
seen this before where it looks like
you're rolling over and then you have
one more surge I need to see some price
action on the stock you know various
indices that also supports that we
probably have topped on the vix in other
words when I see semiconductors breaking
down below the 50-day moving average I
don't get warm and fuzzies when I see
Transportation stocks and while show you
that chart in just a minute when I see
transports breaking down below what I
consider to be pretty significant
intermediate term support it's hard for
me to get excited about the market in
the near term so there are still factors
out there from a price perspective that
I'm really concerned about in the market
in the near term and so if we see that
Vicks jump back up through the recent
high and break through 20 you want to be
careful I've done a lot of research on
the vix when it's above 20 and Rising
the stock market sells off much more
rapidly so again for me it's not so much
worrying about okay I might miss two or
three% to the upside it's worrying about
making sure I don't ride this thing down
for the next 5% or more
possibly so um that's kind of the way
I'm watching it right now so we need a
reversal pretty quickly here or uh
things could uh turn in the other
direction what's going to be interesting
is when some of these big stocks uh like
Netflix which reports after the Bell
today um begins to report so we're going
to have Microsoft and Apple and some of
these big Tech names coming out over the
next couple weeks does the market care
um I don't know we're going to find out
market hasn't cared about solid earning
so far because we have had a really good
run of earnings for the most part I said
told you about the jbht JB Hunt and what
it did to the truckers that was an
exception we've been seeing some really
really strong results but Market seems
like it's already been built in Buy on
rumor sell on news probably heard that
old Wall Street adage anyhow uh let's
move on p500 so we broken below the
50-day and you might say okay that's it
lights out well I would move to the
weekly chart and say we haven't even yet
tested the 20we moving average so when I
talked about back in March moving down
four or five% that's kind of what I was
looking at was the um the 20we EMA as a
possible landing spot for our major
indices on a pullback so we haven't even
gotten there yet so we're
teetering I'm not saying things are
bearish I'm saying yeah we've got some
things that are look bearish
semiconductors going below the 50 day
transports breaking down I mean those
things are definitely not bullish um
clearly short-term bearish but there's a
lot of other groups still holding up
really well as bad as semiconductors are
on the daily chart breaking down below
the 50 look at the weekly chart I mean
we're seeing a little bit of
acceleration but we've probably let's
see the rising 20we move moving averages
1371 we've still got 900 points which
would be another 6% or so maybe 7% on
this Dow Jones US semiconductor index
before we test the 20we moving average
so yeah the daily chart looks bad but
the weekly is the one that I pay
attention to mostly from a long-term
perspective so that's why I'm still
maintaining and I don't have any signals
long-term signals really that are um
upsetting me to any great extent but
that's why longterm I remain bullish and
I know somebody commented on one of my I
think it was either a question that came
into earnings beats or maybe it was on
posted a comment on one of my videos but
someone said wow you know Tom's not
bullish anymore or something like that I
don't remember the exact comment but um
Tom is very bullish I remain extremely
bullish we're in a secular bull market I
said it during the cyclical bear Market
which I talked about beginning of the
year before it ever even happened I said
it during the pandemic in 2020 in the
middle of the pandemic everybody was
fearful Market was collapsing I said
we're in a secular bull market we
bounced back during this cycal bear
Market I said we're in a or during this
cyclical bear I said we're in a secular
bull market and when this end ends we're
going back to all-time highs and that's
what we did um during the correction
last year I said it was just correction
we weren't going back down well I'm
going to tell you right now I think this
is a pullback does it reach correction
status maybe I mean if the if the
semiconductors lose another 7% get down
to that 20we moving average I would say
we're going to be pretty darn close if
not to that 10% level so very well could
happen but unless I start to see
something really change in my under the
surface signals that I like to use I'm
going to stick with what I've been
calling for the last 11 years all of
these pullbacks Corrections cyclical
bare markets there are opportunities on
the long side but if you don't have the
cash because you ride it all the way
down that's a problem so that's why I
want to make sure that we watch a couple
of key support areas and also watch that
vix ndx NASDAQ 100 clearly down below
some key moving averages we move out to
the weekly chart we're almost to the
20we moving average now very close so
the n DX the 20 we is at
17 394 let's go over here and take a
quick look 17394 and we're at
17493 so 100 points away half of 1% a
little bit more than a half of 1% we'll
be on that 20we moving
average the iwm as I said that was
really surprising when we took out the
high yesterday earlier in the day uh or
the the high from the day before on
Tuesday I thought okay that could have
been a reversing candle and we had
tested this Gap resist or Gap support
let me
annotate and
[Music]
um so this is the gap support that I was
talking about and this happens to line
up pretty closely with that 20 week
moving average being just a little bit
below it so if I just look at this right
here you can see that on Tuesday's
action we had actually gone down and
filled this gap which we had not filled
since we gapped up back in uh what was
that around February
13th so we gapped up from February 13th
and never went back and filled that Gap
until Tuesday and we reversed off of it
and we had a chance to post a reversing
Candle on the weekly chart which we
still do by the way
um and we had the 10-year treasury yield
topping or hitting an area where it
could top the vixs in the 19s up near 20
the positive Divergence I talked about
on the hourly chart which I'll show you
in just a minute um but all of that you
can see was lining up for in my opinion
taking a shot with leverage because if
it didn't work I could get out quickly
what I don't want to do is get into the
TNA when the iwm is sitting about three
or four or 5% above a key support level
because the problem is if it goes down
and tests that support level the TNA is
triple the iwm so if you're talking
about the iwm dropping 3 four 5% TNA
that's talking about 9 12 or
15% that's a big those are big
numbers um I didn't go back and
calculate the exact percentage but from
me moving from the iwm to the TNA
yesterday and back out of it probably
cost me about2 % on the trade but the
iwm if I had just held it would have
gone down about 6/10 of 1% so I only
lost about
1.4% um on that trade by having the TNA
and I had my stop set I was not going to
back off of it I wanted to see that
reversal yesterday didn't see it I
wanted to clear I wanted the iwm to
close back above that Gap support
anything less than that I was going to
be out on the iwm and it looked like we
got within about
50 cents or maybe might have even been a
little bit above it I think we were a
little bit above it at one point in the
afternoon and so I was like okay this is
perfect this is going to be the rebound
I was looking for and then of course we
saw weakness into the close and again as
a Trader I don't care if you're long
short if you're losing money you got to
have a stop doesn't matter what side of
the trade you're on you better have a
stop in play and it could reverse I mean
when you get the Vicks up into the upper
teens or up into the 20s or 30s
I mean head fakes are going to be
everywhere they're going to be which is
why I don't like to trade High vix
environments because you think you have
something one minute and 10 minutes
later it's completely different and then
you think okay I'm going to jump in on
the short side and all of a sudden you
get one of these big rallies and then
you're like well and everything you
start to second guess everything you do
I would rather just sit out um and then
I don't have to work second guess
anything so um if that vix gets above 20
definitely keep that in
mind uh so that was the reason for the
trade yesterday on iwm going into the
TNA I hadn't traded TNA in a while but I
thought it was worthwhile yesterday and
did not pan out next up okay transports
so this one I want to
annotate
and we'll also zero in here a little bit
but this was the level that I was
watching at 152 I mean there's also this
level up here to about 154 see all these
bottoms over the last few months 154
these bottoms right here at 152 these
bottoms were more important because we
had broken out of this bottoming head
and shoulder pattern so 152 was the
neckline we went through it on very
heavy volume and continued moving up
first we went back down tested 152 and
then broke out to another high came all
the way back down tested 152 again and
you can see since this point we have
been in this sideways consolidation
range that was a bad candle that is an
ugly candle this is four straight days
now of red filled candles the volume
yesterday accelerated the three previous
days were moderate volume they weren't
light but yesterday we had big volume
and broke down so can't make many
excuses for the transports that was an
ugly candle and it was definitely a
breakdown um again could it rally yeah
Market can do anything it wants but what
we use technical analysis for is to
manage our risk when you see a big
volume breakdown that's telling you
there's a lot of risk to the downside so
whether it recovers from here or not is
a moot point in my view it's telling us
you got to be careful with the transport
group right now especially the truckers
and like I said we'll look at the CSX
chart in a minute um but they reported
great results yesterday and earlier they
were up pre-market
um we'll see where they are now but I'm
not going to trust that move up to the
upside not with what's going on right
now in there in that
space all right um before I go actually
I'm going to go back to that iwm because
I wanted to show you that hourly chart
and that um positive Divergence so you
see here we go down uh Po's down we go
down again po goes down here we go down
to another low po goes lower and here we
are down at a new low with a higher po
now word of caution because if you had
looked at this probably back on April
12th you would have said lower price and
April 12th we would have been right here
you would have looked and said higher po
you would have said positive Divergence
which in theory is correct the problem
is after we had this quick little bounce
we end up going lower and lower and
lower we never got back through through
the breakdown
level so yeah I mean it definitely
showed us temporarily we had a positive
Divergence but the price action never
confirmed anything we never got back
through the 20-day and ultimately what
happened the negative or the positive
Divergence was eliminated we talked
about this with
divergences um on um uh Monday of this
week we had a session an educational
session on divergences and when people
look back they don't see this Divergence
why because it's hindsight and you had
more selling but again if you broke
broke it down on on April 12th that was
a negative Divergence so for those who
think you know that these divergences
always work it didn't work there and may
not work here I mean right now we have
that positive Divergence but what
happens if iwm keeps selling off and
this PO turns back down and puts in a
new low it's going to look like there
was never a positive Divergence to begin
with so even though we have a positive
Divergence you cannot like I certainly
don't like watching that iwm finish on
the low of the day all right let's move
on to the chart of the day uh for those
of you who are new to earnings beats
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I think it'll help in some of your
trading uh let's keep moving on so
today's chart of the day I wanted to
show you CSX so CSX along with many of
the transport stocks absolutely getting
crushed we've seen that death cross
where the 20 crosses below the 50 you
can see the PO is very very weak it is
reaching a level where we start to maybe
see see some prior um you know support
in terms of the PO but we're not quite
there and I'm not getting in front of
this freight train now today we did come
out with earnings let me give you the
earnings number it is 9:30 so I'm going
to try and wrap this up real quick CSX
beat on revenue or excuse me on earnings
per share 46 cents versus 45 cents they
also beat on revenues 3.68 billion
versus 3.65 billion
and right now let's get an update on the
market 3416 now
3457 went up pulled back to a new uh at
least below yesterday's low and now has
recovered back up again here all in the
first minute or two unless we get back
through the 20-day moving average
there's not a whole lot to talk about
here I don't care how good the numbers
are if we don't get back and look good
technically I would stay away from the
stock so yeah we've got a chance get
back up through the 20 with some news
let's see if we can do it otherwise
watch below if we can't hold about $34
on a closing basis I mean that's where
we bottom there that also is where we
topped over here 34 is a big level so I
guess if you're using price support um
you could maybe take make an argument
that this is the time to get in nice
results I would just say transports have
broken down it's not an easy call um and
if you do get in playing this 34 low
just make sure you keep that stop at 34
and he closed below 34 and I'd be very
very
careful all right um that is it let's go
back and take a look and see how the
major indices are doing I see a bunch of
green so far Dow up 150 S&P up 12 NASDAQ
up 20 so on a percentage basis it drops
uh with each of those three small caps
up about 410 of 1% so getting off to a
decent start today uh let's just take a
look at that iwm last minute last thing
we do here yeah I mean it's up we'll see
what happens I mean yesterday we were up
um Monday we were up finish down
yesterday we were up finish down closing
down near the lows so while it's great
to be up um let's see how we finish it's
all about the finish I want to see a
really strong finish I want to see a
reversal I want to start I want to see a
clearing of this trading range I want to
see a clearing of that 20we EMA still
got a long way to go here um I'm
sticking with the market for now and
again that vix right now it's uh just
below
18 if it were to break down back into
the 16s I would start to feel much
better until then I think we're just in
this I don't know back and forth period
and we'll see uh where we end up lasting
10year treasury yield uh still up a
little bit 4.60% % um and we'll see how
that goes and whether or not that
inverse relationship on the iwm uh
continues U because that definitely was
not an inverse relationship yesterday um
I do want to mention also before I leave
um got busy schedule coming up so this
weekend I'm going to be visiting with
family I'll still be doing some work but
I may not have the full complement of
services especially for the earnings
beats members
um the weekly market report that I
normally have written out the big one
that I uh publish on Monday morning I
may simply do a video this week because
I may not have the time on Monday
remember we have a um another
educational series on Monday it's going
to be on trading
gaps um so if you're in that by the way
if you're a trial member at earnings
Beach you can come into that for free so
all you need to do is just make sure
you're a trial member um but that's on
Monday evening so I don't know if I'm
going to have a whole lot of time to to
do the mark weekly market report because
that's a long report um so I may just do
the video this weekend next weekend is
going to be a golf trip I'm out I leave
Wednesday afternoon and I'm not back
until Sunday so we'll talk more about
that the beginning of next week but I
just want you to know ahead of time for
planning purposes there'll definitely be
no Thursday Trading Places live next
week so anyway I'll be talking more and
more about this as we go throughout the
week and weekend and into the early part
of next week but just want to let you
know plan a seed uh that my schedule
will be little tight over the next
couple weekends anyway have a great day
everybody happy Trading
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