Why cyber warfare represents diplomatic territory

Summary

The New York Times reports on US military efforts to infiltrate Russia's civilian power grid, highlighting a new digital conflict. Cyber Command has been granted authority to conduct offensive operations without presidential approval, increasing operational freedom. R.P. Eddy, a former National Security Council member, discusses the significance of cyber operations in modern warfare and the potential for miscommunication and escalation due to the lack of established norms in cyber warfare.

Takeaways

• 🇷🇺 The New York Times reported that the U.S. military is infiltrating Russia's power grid, a civilian target.
• 🏢 The Pentagon's Cyber Command has been given authority to conduct offensive operations without direct presidential approval.
• 🔍 Cyber Command's operations are part of an increasingly crowded digital battlefield.
• 💡 Cyber Command has been operational for a decade, focusing on understanding global adversaries' vulnerabilities.
• 🌐 The impact of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure can be devastating, affecting water, hospitals, and traffic systems.
• 🛡️ Cyber deterrence is crucial for the U.S. as it seeks to establish deterrence globally.
• ⚖️ There's a risk of cyber deterrence being misinterpreted as provocation by other nations.
• 🤔 Cyber warfare lacks established rules and treaties, increasing the potential for miscommunication.
• 🏁 The 'Wild West' analogy is used to describe the current state of cyber warfare, with no clear rules of engagement.
• 🔒 Cyber Command's actions are not delegated to individual commanders, suggesting a high level of control over cyber-operations.

Q & A

What was reported by The New York Times regarding American military efforts?

The New York Times reported that the American military is infiltrating Russia's power grid, which is a largely civilian target, as part of its digital conflict efforts.

What authority has been given to the Pentagon's Cyber Command?

The Pentagon's Cyber Command has been given the authority to conduct offensive operations without direct presidential approval.

How does the ability to conduct cyber-offensive operations enhance the U.S. military power?

Cyber-offensive operations are crucial for creating deterrence in the cyber-domain and protecting critical infrastructure, which is often controlled by internet-connected systems.

What concerns does R.P. Eddy have about the current state of cyber warfare?

R.P. Eddy is concerned about the lack of established norms and rules in cyber warfare, which can lead to miscommunication and misunderstandings between nations.

Why is the comparison to the 'Wild West' appropriate when discussing cyber warfare?

The 'Wild West' comparison is used because there are currently no established rules or regulations governing cyber warfare, similar to the lawlessness of the historical Wild West.

What are the potential consequences of cyber attacks on civilian infrastructure?

Cyber attacks on civilian infrastructure, such as power grids, can lead to severe disruptions like lack of water, hospital services, and traffic control, potentially resulting in loss of life.

How does R.P. Eddy view the current pace of technology in relation to diplomacy?

R.P. Eddy believes that technology is advancing much faster than the diplomatic discussions and regulations around cyber warfare.

What is the significance of Cyber Command being 10 years old?

The fact that Cyber Command is 10 years old indicates that the U.S. has been investing heavily in understanding and countering cyber vulnerabilities of adversaries for a decade.

What is the potential risk of cyber weapons like Stuxnet being repurposed by other entities?

The risk is that once a cyber weapon is released, it can be repurposed by criminals or adversary nations, leading to unintended consequences and misuse.

How does the script suggest the Pentagon's Cyber Command is evolving in terms of its operations?

The script suggests that Cyber Command is evolving to the point where cyber operations are becoming more autonomous and integrated into the military's arsenal of options.

What is the implication of Cyber Command having the ability to act without direct presidential approval?

The implication is that cyber operations are being normalized as a part of military strategy, with commanders having more freedom to act swiftly in response to threats.

Outlines

00:00

💻 U.S. Cyber Command's Offensive Operations

The New York Times reported on the U.S. military's efforts to infiltrate Russia's power grid, a civilian target, indicating a digital conflict. John Yang discussed this with R.P. Eddy, a former National Security Council official. Eddy explained that Cyber Command, part of the Department of Defense, has been operational for ten years and has been investing heavily in understanding global vulnerabilities. The intrusion into Russia's grid is part of a broader digital battlefield. Cyber Command is crucial for U.S. military power due to the disruptive potential of cyberattacks, as seen in the 2016 elections. Eddy emphasized the importance of deterrence in cyberspace, especially with critical infrastructures connected to the Internet. He also highlighted the risk of miscommunication and misunderstanding in cyber warfare, as there are no established rules or norms, likening it to the 'Wild West'. The discussion also touched on the potential dangers of offensive cyber-operations against noncombatants and the lack of public discourse on these issues.

05:04

🔒 Stuxnet and Cyber Warfare Consequences

The conversation continued with the topic of Stuxnet, a powerful cyberweapon whose origins are unclear but suspected to be linked to the U.S. The release of Stuxnet into the wild has had significant repercussions, as it has been repurposed by criminals and other nations for their own ends. This highlights the need to consider the unintended consequences of cyber activities. Eddy compared the situation to a high-tech drone being captured and reprogrammed by an adversary. The discussion underscored the importance of thinking through the broader implications of cyber warfare and the potential for misuse of cyber weapons by unintended parties.

Keywords

💡Cyber Command

Cyber Command refers to the United States Cyber Command, a unified combatant command that is tasked with defending the Department of Defense's networks and conducting cyber operations to support national objectives. In the script, it is mentioned that Cyber Command has been given the authority to conduct offensive operations without direct presidential approval, highlighting its growing importance in military strategy.

💡Offensive Operations

Offensive operations in the context of cyber warfare involve proactive measures to disrupt, damage, or interfere with an adversary's networks or systems. The script discusses how Cyber Command can now conduct such operations more freely, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive posture in digital conflict.

💡Digital Battlefield

A digital battlefield is a virtual space where cyber warfare is conducted. It includes networks, servers, and other digital infrastructure. The script mentions an 'increasingly crowded digital battlefield,' suggesting the growing intensity and complexity of cyber conflicts.

💡Critical Infrastructure

Critical infrastructure refers to physical and virtual systems essential to the functioning of a society and economy, such as power grids, water supply systems, and hospitals. The script discusses the vulnerability of these systems to cyberattacks, which could have severe real-world consequences.

💡Deterrence

Deterrence in military strategy is the concept of discouraging an adversary from taking a course of action by the threat of retaliation. In the script, R.P. Eddy discusses the importance of cyber-offensive capacity as a form of deterrence in the digital age.

💡Cyber-Vulnerabilities

Cyber-vulnerabilities are weaknesses in computer systems or networks that can be exploited by adversaries to gain unauthorized access or cause damage. The script mentions the U.S. government's efforts to understand these vulnerabilities in adversaries' systems.

💡Proportional Response

A proportional response is an action taken in retaliation that is considered to be of equivalent severity to the initial offense. The script discusses the lack of established norms for proportionality in cyber warfare, which can lead to misunderstandings and escalation.

💡Miscommunication

Miscommunication in the context of the script refers to the potential for one nation to misinterpret the actions of another in cyberspace. This could lead to unintended escalation, as nations may not agree on what constitutes an aggressive act in cyber warfare.

💡Wild West

The term 'Wild West' is used metaphorically in the script to describe the current state of cyber warfare, where there are no established rules or norms. This analogy highlights the lawlessness and unpredictability of cyber conflict.

💡Noncombatants

Noncombatants are individuals who are not involved in military operations, such as civilians. The script raises concerns about the potential for cyberattacks to harm noncombatants by disrupting essential services, which would be a violation of the rules of warfare.

💡Stuxnet

Stuxnet is a sophisticated malware that was used to target Iran's nuclear program. Mentioned in the script, it is an example of a cyber weapon that has been repurposed by other actors, illustrating the potential for unintended consequences in cyber warfare.

Highlights

The New York Times reported on American military efforts to infiltrate Russia's power grid.

The Pentagon's Cyber Command has been given authority to conduct offensive operations without direct presidential approval.

Cyber Command can operate more freely, potentially increasing its effectiveness on the digital battlefield.

R.P. Eddy, a former National Security Council official, discusses the scope of U.S. offensive cyber-operations.

U.S. Cyber Command has been operational for a decade, investing billions to understand global vulnerabilities.

Cyber Command's role is crucial as the world becomes more connected and reliant on internet-controlled infrastructure.

The potential consequences of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure could be severe, including loss of life.

Cyber warfare capabilities are still largely covert and not openly discussed in the public domain.

There's a risk of miscommunication where one nation's cyber-deterrence could be seen as provocation by another.

The lack of established norms in cyber warfare is compared to the 'Wild West', with no clear rules of engagement.

Attacks on noncombatants in cyberspace, such as shutting down a power grid, raise legal and ethical questions.

The technology of cyber warfare is advancing faster than the diplomatic conversations around it.

The head of Cyber Command is unlikely to have the authority to deploy cyber-weapons without higher approval.

Stuxnet, a malware launched against Iran's nuclear program, has been repurposed by other nations and criminals.

The release of Stuxnet into the wild has had unintended consequences, highlighting the need for caution in cyber warfare.

The conversation around cyber warfare and its implications is still in its early stages.

Transcripts

JUDY WOODRUFF: Over the weekend, The New York Times reported on American military efforts

to infiltrate the power grid of Russia, a largely civilian target.

As John Yang tells us, it's a flash point in an emerging, digital conflict.

JOHN YANG: Judy, The Times reported that the president and Congress have given the Pentagon's

Cyber Command, which is based at Fort Meade, Maryland, the authority to conduct offensive

operations without direct presidential approval.

That means commanders there can operate more freely, and, in theory, more nimbly.

The intrusions into Russia's electrical grid are the latest reported example of U.S. military

efforts on an increasingly crowded digital battlefield.

For more on this, we are joined by R.P. Eddy.

He's a former National Security Council official and the founder of Ergo, an intelligence consulting

firm.

Mr. Eddy, thank you very much for joining us.

Can you give us some understanding or help us understand the scope of U.S. offensive

cyber-operations?

R.P. EDDY, Former National Security Council Staff Member: Well, U.S. Cyber Command, which

is a part of the U.S. government, part of the Department of Defense that's intended

to take our offensive-defensive cyber-operations, is 10 years old actually this month.

And it's a massive undertaking, meaning that this reporting, to me, isn't shockingly newsworthy,

because we have been working diligently, sending billions of dollars to understand the vulnerability

of our adversaries around the globe for a decade at this point, at least.

And before Cyber Command, of course, we were doing this in other guises.

JOHN YANG: And how important is Cyber Command to U.S. military power?

R.P. EDDY: Think about how disruptive the use of cyberattacks against Facebook and other

and other aspects of our cyber-domain were in the 2016 elections.

The way the world's turning right now, we live in an extraordinary, connected world.

We don't quite understand what would happen if the power went off, but if you spend some

time thinking about no water, no hospitals, no ambulance, no traffic lights, what that

all means, it means people dying.

That's a cyber-offensive capacity.

The critical infrastructure of most nations is controlled by things connected to the Internet

or to computers.

That's a cyber-target or vulnerability.

So I'd say the capacity to create deterrence in the cyber-domain is extremely important

for the United States right now as we try to push deterrence around the globe.

JOHN YANG: Is there a concern, or is there a danger that what we view as deterrence,

one side views as deterrence, the other side could see as provocation?

R.P. EDDY: Yes, I like the way you put that.

So, one of the concerns about this entire domain is that it's still considered a secret,

right?

So all of our cyber-offensive or other nations' cyber-offensive capacities, if they even exist,

are considered a covert capacity, meaning we're not sitting down in the public and talking

about them.

While nuclear weapons and normal missiles and other things are horrible weapons of war,

we have treaties around them.

We understand what is a proportional response, what is not.

We have not had those conversations as it -- when it comes to offensive cyber-activity.

So the capacity of one nation to misunderstand another, for one nation to think that a cyber-intrusion

or a cyberattack means one thing, to them, it means something much more aggressive or

offensive, could happen.

So there could be real room for miscommunication here.

JOHN YANG: And so, in other words, it sounds like there are no sort of rules of the road

here.

It's a little bit like the Wild West?

R.P. EDDY: It is -- the Wild West is a really good analogy.

There are no rules of the road.

And, remember, we're now talking about taking attacks against noncombatants.

So there are obviously rules of warfare about hitting noncombatants.

But in the world of the cyber-war, people may not consider that to be a violation of

the International Criminal Court or other legal statutes that we have to follow inside

the rules of warfare.

So if I shut down the power grid in New York City, that will lead to the death of people

that are noncombatants, and that is an offensive operation against noncombatants.

And we haven't had those conversations.

So it is the Wild West.

There's not enough conversation on this.

The norms haven't been established.

I would just say quickly, again, look back at how puzzled we all were about the manipulation

of Facebook and other social media during the last election.

The technology is far outpacing the diplomacy and the conversations around these issues.

JOHN YANG: And giving the authority to the secretary defense, to the head of Cyber Command

to carry these things out without direct presidential approval, without direct presidential authority,

is this a sign -- I mean, is this a military commander is now calling it an airstrike;

it's now just another weapon in the arsenal?

R.P. EDDY: It is another weapon in the arsenal.

And it's one that we haven't had real conversations about, as we mentioned before.

To activate potential implants or to take advantage of cyber-vulnerabilities would be

an offensive operation of war that is not delegated right now down to individual commanders.

So I would be shocked if the head of Cyber Command believes right now he's allowed to

press a button and deploy cyber-weapons.

I don't think that's where we are.

JOHN YANG: And this all started -- or at least the people first may have become aware of

Stuxnet, when the National Security Agency launched this malware against the Iranian

nuclear program, which got out, and is now being used by others or had been used by others.

Is this now moving into the Pentagon?

Is this sort of another step, another sort of Pandora's box being kicked open?

R.P. EDDY: So it's not entirely clear yet who was behind Stuxnet.

And all the reporting that the United States was on it is sort of non-verified reporting.

But whoever did release Stuxnet put a very, very powerful cyber-weapon out into the wild.

And criminals and other nation states have since taken that weapon and repurposed it

for their own use.

So, much like a drone being shot down in a hostile country, American high-tech drone

being shot down and being reprogrammed by the hostile nation, such can some of these

cyber-weapons be repurposed by people we'd rather not have them, cyber-criminals or adversary

nations.

That's another thing we have to make sure we're really thinking about when we catalogue

the unintended consequences of different cyber-activities, cyber-warfare activities.

JOHN YANG: R.P. Eddy, a former National Security Council official, thank you very much.

R.P. EDDY: Thanks very much, John.