NÃO IGNORE O ALERTA: A TAXA SELIC VAI SUBIR MUITO MAIS NO BRASIL
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses Brazil's high interest rates and the potential for further increases due to concerns raised by the Central Bank about the government's fiscal policy. The Central Bank highlights that Lula's administration's expansionist fiscal stance, marked by rising public spending, makes controlling inflation harder, possibly leading to higher interest rates. The video also emphasizes discrepancies in the accounting of public finances between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, affecting market confidence. Lastly, it offers investment advice given the expected high interest rates until mid-2025, suggesting safe options like fixed-income funds.
Takeaways
- 📈 High interest rates in Brazil are not surprising, but the Central Bank warns that they could rise even higher if fiscal policy transparency is not improved.
- 🏛️ The Central Bank criticizes the expansionary fiscal policy of the Lula government, which increases public spending and stimulates the economy, leading to higher inflation and the need for higher interest rates.
- 💼 The Central Bank demands predictable rules and transparency in public accounts, highlighting a difference in accounting methods with the Ministry of Finance.
- 🔢 There is a significant discrepancy of over R$ 41 billion in the calculation of the public account deficit between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance.
- 💼 The discrepancy is influenced by factors such as R$ 6 billion in forgotten PIS and COFINS taxes that the Treasury counted as revenue, but the Central Bank did not.
- 💵 Another discrepancy arises from R$ 8.6 billion in forgotten money in bank accounts by Brazilians, which the Treasury will count as revenue, but the Central Bank will not.
- 🚫 The Central Bank is particularly critical of certain fiscal projects that attempt to circumvent budget constraints, such as a gas subsidy program and tax benefits for a shipbuilding project.
- 📉 The market distrusts the government's fiscal policy due to lack of transparency, which contributes to higher interest rates.
- 📅 The script provides a forecast for SELIC interest rates, expecting increases in November and December 2024, and further increases in January 2025, with a median forecast of 11.75% by the end of July 2025.
- 🏦金融机构如Itaú预测2025年初的SELIC利率将达到12%,显示出对利率进一步上升的预期。
- 💼 The script recommends investing in fixed-income securities such as Treasury bonds, post-fixed CDs, and post-fixed LCIs, and directs readers to the author's investment consultancy for personalized advice.
Q & A
Why is the interest rate high in Brazil?
-The high interest rate in Brazil is due to the government's expansionary fiscal policy, which increases public spending and stimulates the economy, leading to inflation. The Central Bank of Brazil has to raise interest rates to control this inflation.
What does the Central Bank of Brazil require from the government to avoid higher interest rates?
-The Central Bank of Brazil is asking for transparency in fiscal policy. They believe that without it, the government's expansionary fiscal policy will continue to put upward pressure on prices, necessitating even higher interest rates.
What is an expansionary fiscal policy?
-An expansionary fiscal policy is a government strategy that involves increasing public spending to stimulate economic growth. This typically results in a warmer economy and higher inflation, which can necessitate higher interest rates.
What is the difference between the Central Bank of Brazil and the Ministry of Finance in terms of accounting for public deficits?
-The Central Bank of Brazil and the Ministry of Finance have a discrepancy in how they account for public deficits. The Central Bank uses a more conservative method, not counting certain revenues like forgotten funds and PIS/PASEP that the Ministry does, leading to a difference of over R$ 41 billion in the last 12 months.
What is the significance of the discrepancy between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance's deficit figures?
-The discrepancy signifies a lack of transparency and trust in the government's fiscal reporting. It affects the market's confidence and can lead to higher interest rates as investors become more cautious.
What are some examples of the Ministry of Finance's actions that have raised concerns about transparency?
-Examples include attempts to increase gas subsidies through a triangulation involving Caixa Econômica to avoid budget constraints, and granting fiscal benefits for a ship tank project without proper countermeasures, which has been suspended.
What is the current market expectation for SELIC rates by the end of 2024?
-As of September 24th, the market expects future interest rates to rise to the highest level of the year. The median forecast for the SELIC rate by the end of 2024 is 11.25%, and it is expected to rise to 11.75% by January 2025.
What is the projected SELIC rate for 2025 according to the median forecast?
-The median forecast for the SELIC rate in 2025 is 11.75%, with a projected decrease only at the end of July 2025.
Which financial institution has a higher interest rate projection for 2025 compared to the median forecast?
-Itaú Unibanco has a higher projection for the SELIC rate, expecting it to start 2025 at 12%.
What are the recommended investment strategies by Hy Correa Research amidst rising interest rates?
-Hy Correa Research recommends investing in fixed-income securities such as Treasury SELIC bonds, post-fixed CDBs, post-fixed LCIs, and post-fixed fixed-income funds.
How can one get personalized investment advice as mentioned in the script?
-One can get personalized investment advice by clicking on the first link in the description or comments, which leads to the RC Wealth consultancy services, known for growing rapidly in Brazil.
Outlines
📈 High Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy in Brazil
The paragraph discusses the high interest rates in Brazil and the warning from the Central Bank about the potential for further increases if fiscal policy transparency is not improved. The Central Bank criticizes the expansionary fiscal policy of the Lula government, which increases public spending, stimulates the economy, and puts upward pressure on prices, necessitating higher interest rates. The paragraph also highlights a significant discrepancy of over R$ 41 billion in the accounting of public debt between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. This discrepancy is influenced by factors such as unclaimed PIS and COFINS credits and unaccounted funds in bank accounts, which the Treasury counts as revenue but the Central Bank does not. The paragraph concludes with a discussion on market distrust due to the lack of transparency in fiscal policy, leading to higher interest rates, and mentions the future SELIC rate predictions for the end of 2024 and 2025.
📊 Interest Rate Forecasts and Investment Recommendations
This paragraph provides a forecast of interest rate hikes, with predictions for November 6th, December 11th, and January 29th, 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in SELIC rates. It emphasizes that these forecasts are median values, indicating a consensus among financial institutions. The speaker also mentions that some institutions, like Itaú, predict even higher interest rates. The paragraph concludes with investment recommendations from Hy Correa Research, suggesting fixed-income investments such as Treasury bonds, CDBs, and post-fixed LCIs and LCAs. The speaker invites viewers to consult their investment advisory service for personalized advice and mentions the benefits of their wealth planning services.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Interest Rates
💡Fiscal Policy
💡Inflation
💡Central Bank
💡Transparency
💡Public Spending
💡Discrepancy
💡Revenue
💡Investment Recommendations
💡SELIC Rate
💡Fiscal Stimulus
Highlights
High interest rates in Brazil are not surprising, but warnings from the Central Bank suggest they could rise even higher if fiscal policy transparency is not improved.
The Central Bank criticizes the expansionary fiscal policy of the Lula government, which increases public spending and stimulates the economy, leading to higher inflation and the need for higher interest rates.
The Central Bank demands predictable rules and transparency in fiscal results, emphasizing the importance of these elements for economic stability.
The Central Bank is an independent institution, while the Ministry of Finance is not, highlighting a preliminary difference in their approaches.
There is a significant discrepancy in the accounting of public deficits between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, with a difference of over R 41 billion reais in the last 12 months.
The Central Bank does not consider certain revenues, such as forgotten PIS and COFINS funds, as part of its deficit calculation, which is a point of contention.
Another discrepancy arises from the 'forgotten money' in bank accounts, with the Treasury planning to count it as revenue, while the Central Bank does not.
The market's distrust in the government's fiscal policy and lack of transparency is causing interest rates to rise.
Future interest rates have jumped to the highest level of the year, indicating a continued rise in borrowing costs.
Market expectations for SELIC interest rates are updated, with predictions for the end of 2024 and projections for 2025.
The median forecast of economists suggests a series of interest rate hikes in the coming months, with a peak in July 2025.
Itaú and other financial institutions predict even higher interest rates, with Itaú forecasting a SELIC rate of 12% at the start of 2025.
The recommendation from Hy Correa Research is to invest in fixed-income securities such as Treasury bonds, post-fixed CDs, and post-fixed LCIs.
The speaker offers investment consulting services through RC Wealth, focusing on investments in Brazil and abroad, as well as wealth planning.
RC Wealth is described as the fastest-growing investment consulting firm in Brazil.
The speaker invites the audience to learn about the benefits of RC Wealth's services by clicking a link for a consultation.
Transcripts
que a taxa de juros está alta no Brasil
isso daí não é surpresa para ninguém
agora que ela pode subir muito mais vai
deixar de ser surpresa para você hoje
porque o banco central está avisando
olha precisamos de Transparência na
política fiscal do governo senão teremos
juros ainda mais altos o que que o BC
falou a política fiscal no governo Lula
está expansionista E isso tem
dificultado o trabalho de controle da
inflação Presta atenção que eu deixei
destacado expansionista O que que
significa expansionista eu te explico
governo aumentando os gastos públicos
gera o quê um estímulo na economia e uma
Economia mais aquecida pressiona os
preços para cima então o banco central
precisa aumentar mais a ainda os juros
Além disso num tom mais duro até então
sobre as contas públicas o banco central
cobrou regras previsíveis e disse que
transparência nos resultados são
elementos fundamentais o banco central é
uma instituição independente autônoma já
o ministério da fazenda é um órgão que
não é exatamente assim além dessa
diferença preliminar o banco central e o
ministério da fazenda possui uma
diferença no método de contabilizar o
rombo nas contas públicas Se você pegar
os últimos 12 meses corrigir este rombo
calculado pelo Banco Central A
discrepância entre o que o banco central
mostra e a fazenda mostra É mais de R 41
bilhões de reais ou seja a maior
diferença da história e Deixa eu te
explicar o que que está influenciando
tanto nessa discrepância aí Isso aqui é
suco de Brasil meu querido R6 bilhões de
reais esquecidos pelos trabalhadores do
PIS e pazep foram
incorporados pelo tesouro no ano passado
esses
valores não foram computados como
receita pelo banco central o que na
minha opinião é o correto a ser feito e
teremos
mais discrepância pela frente porque até
conversamos sobre isso daqui alguns dias
atrás o dinheiro esquecido nas contas
bancárias pelos brasileiros 8 bilhões
600 milhões de reais mais uma vez o
Tesouro Nacional vai contabilizar como
receita isso daqui o banco central falou
não eu não vou considerar no cálculo o
dinheiro esquecido pelos brasileiros nas
contas que o tesouro vai pegar para ele
agora seja sincero aqui comigo olhando a
forma que o banco central vê essas
coisas e olhando a forma que o
ministério da fazenda vê essas coisas
Qual dos dois você considera mais
íntegro mais honesto mais transparente e
os Fari liim também agora Estão
criticando vamos falar aqui dois
exemplos né de projetos que acabaram
contando com a assinatura do Ministério
da faz ainda o primeiro deles tenta
aumentar os gastos com auxílio gás mas
por meio de uma
triangulação envolvendo a Caixa
Econômica por quê para que essa despesa
do auxílio gás não entrasse no orçamento
outro exemplo aqui foram concedidos
benefícios fiscais para um projeto de
navios tanques com depreciação acelerada
mas sem as devidas contrapartidas
isso daqui já foi inclusive suspenso
então em resumo essa desconfiança do
mercado com a forma que você vem fazendo
a política fiscal com a questão da falta
de Transparência faz com que os juros
fiquem cada vez maiores inclusive esta
notícia de hoje dia 24 de Setembro traz
a seguinte headline os juros futuros
saltaram ao maior nível do ano e já que
a gente tá falando de juros também
tivemos aí a atualização do que o
mercado está esperando paraa taxa celic
ao final desse ano de 2024 e também já
trazendo aqui a perspectiva pra taxa
SELIC de 2025 eu vou trazer o resumão
para facilitar a sua vida aqui a mediana
das previsões dos economistas só para
esclarecer né média é quando você soma
todos os palpites e divide exatamente
pelo número das pessoas que eram os
pitacos isso é média mediana é você
botar todos os palpites em uma planilha
do Excel e você vai retirar exatamente o
palpite do meio dia 6 de novembro já
nota na sua agenda os juros vão subir
mais 0,5 pontos percentuais então a
gente vai para
11:25 dia 11 de dezembro vamos subir
mais 0,25 vai para 11,50 e vamos mais
uma vez encarar aumento de juros do dia
29 de Janeiro de 2025 Vamos bater em
11,75 e vamos ficar um bom tempo com a
taxa de juros assim a perspectiva é que
Voltaremos a ter uma queda nas taxas de
juros tão somente no último dia de julho
de 2025 Mas aqui é importante destacar o
seguinte você lembra que eu acabei de
falar para você explicação sobre
medianas esses dados são são todos
medianas então a gente tem algumas
instituições financeiras que já tem uma
perspectiva de juros maior ainda é o
caso do Itaú que divulgou alguns dias
atrás que nós vamos começar o ano de
2025 com celic a 12% e não apenas o Itaú
tem outras instituições bem conhecidas
são elas XP BTG a taxa de juros no
Brasil voltou a subir e vai continuar
subindo por um bom tempo e vai
permanecer lá em cima pelo menos até
metade do ano que vem e aí aonde
investir vou mais uma vez trazer aqui as
recomendações da hy Correa research
tesouro SELIC cdbs pós fixados lci lcas
pós-fixadas e fundos de renda fixa
pós-fixados tire um print para você
sempre ter a mão o nome do investimento
e na coluna da direita por Roby muito
legal essa tabelinha Mas eu quero a sua
consultoria de investimentos então você
vai clicar no primeiro link na descrição
ou no primeiro link nos comentários
fixados e você vai conhecer a minha
consultoria de investimentos a RC walth
Que por sinal é a consultoria de
investimentos que mais cresce no Brasil
nós cuidamos dos investimentos no Brasil
e no exterior dos nossos clientes e
também temos wealth planning que é
planejamento tributário sucessório e
patrimonial para você e paraa sua
família Então venha com conhecer as
vantagens e benefícios que eu e os
membros aqui do meu time temos a
oferecer para você e paraa sua família
nos investimentos e também no
planejamento basta você clicar nesse
botãozinho azul aqui fale agora com um
especialista e digitar o seu nome o seu
e-mail e o seu WhatsApp e apertar no
botão azul mais uma vez e pronto não
precisa se preocupar com mais nada deixa
o resto aqui comigo e com os membros do
meu time o nosso bate-papo de hoje ó di
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