Can SoFi Hold Above $8? - sofi stock analysis
Summary
TLDRIn today's stock update, the focus is on Sofi, which saw a slight 1.71% drop but held above the critical $8 mark. Despite market manipulation and low-volume trading, Sofi's stock maintained key support. The video discusses options trading, short-selling activity, and a notable SEC filing involving the sale of shares by an executive due to personal reasons. Upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts and their potential market impact are also highlighted. Investors are advised to watch key support levels, with Sofi's earnings report expected soon. The video encourages viewer engagement and opinions on Sofi's performance.
Takeaways
- 📉 Sofi's stock recently experienced a drop of 1.71% but remained above the critical $8 mark.
- 🔄 The stock showed significant volatility, with a previous dip to $8.03, possibly due to market manipulation.
- 📈 Despite low volume trading, Sofi's stock held steady, which is a positive sign.
- 📄 An SEC filing indicated that Jeremy, likely due to divorce proceedings, is selling 68,000 shares.
- 💼 The selling by Jeremy is personal and should not be seen as a reflection of Sofi's performance.
- 🌐 There was no major news from Sofi, but the broader market is reacting to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- 📊 Short sellers returned about 1.45 million shares, contributing to the day's volatility.
- 💹 About 18.5% of Sofi's free float is being shorted, indicating continued pressure on the stock.
- 📈 Options trading was active, with $946 million in call options and $578 million in put options.
- 📊 The stochastic oscillator suggests Sofi's stock is overbought, with potential for consolidation or a slight pullback.
Q & A
What recent price movement did Sofi experience?
-Sofi recently experienced a drop of 1.71%, but it held above the critical $8 mark, which is important for maintaining support.
Why is the $8 mark significant for Sofi's stock?
-The $8 mark is significant because staying above this level helps maintain support in a volatile market. There was even an effort to push the stock below $8, but it held steady.
What unusual trading activity was observed for Sofi stock?
-Around 35.9 million shares were traded, which is below the average of 40.6 million, but 6 million shares were traded after hours, likely tied to options trading.
What is the significance of the SEC filing mentioned in the script?
-The SEC filing showed that Jeremy, likely referring to a shareholder going through a divorce, sold 68,000 shares. This is personal and doesn't reflect on Sofi’s performance.
How might the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts affect the market?
-Investors are speculating about potential 50 basis point rate cuts. Some believe it signals a recession, while others think it could drive consumer spending and push the market higher.
What was the short interest situation for Sofi stock?
-As of now, about 18.5% of Sofi’s free float is being shorted, translating to roughly 193.45 million shares. The average borrowing cost is around 0.93%, and there's still significant pressure on the stock.
What was notable about Sofi's options trading activity?
-Sofi closed above $8 with $946 million in call options and $578 million in put options. Despite holding above $8, about 66% of options activity was bearish, with a significant focus on the $8 strike price.
How did after-hours trading affect Sofi's stock?
-After-hours trading was active, with market makers likely covering options positions. This could lead to a small bump in Sofi's stock price early next week.
What technical indicators suggest Sofi may face a pullback?
-The stochastic oscillator shows Sofi is in overbought territory with a reading of 79. There’s also a bearish crossover forming, signaling potential consolidation or a slight pullback.
What support levels should investors watch for Sofi stock?
-If Sofi falls below $8.22, the next major support level is at $7.79. The stock has a chance to bounce off these levels and trend higher, especially with earnings on the horizon.
Outlines
📉 Sofi Stock Overview and Market Movement
The video discusses Sofi's recent stock performance, highlighting a 1.71% drop but maintaining a critical support level above $8. The speaker explains the significance of this level, given the stock's volatility and potential market manipulation due to low-volume trading. With around 35.9 million shares traded (6 million after hours), Sofi showed resilience despite pressure. Additionally, there was a significant SEC filing showing that Jeremy, likely driven by personal reasons such as a divorce, sold 68,000 shares. The video also touches on the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts and their impact on market dynamics.
📊 Sofi's Short Interest and Options Trading Activity
The video shifts focus to Sofi’s short-selling activity, noting that short sellers returned 1.45 million shares, which added volatility. Around 18.5% of Sofi's free float is being shorted, indicating persistent market pressure. The speaker dives into options trading, mentioning that while Sofi held above $8, most of the options activity (66%) was bearish. With nearly $946 million in call options and $578 million in put options, Sofi's price remains a subject of speculation. After-hours trading suggests market makers are covering options positions, possibly boosting the stock price early next week. Sofi's overbought status, as per the stochastic oscillator, hints at potential consolidation or a pullback soon.
📈 Sofi’s Future Performance and Key Levels to Watch
In this section, the speaker outlines the key support levels for Sofi. If Sofi falls below $8.22, the next major support is at $7.79, but there's optimism about a bounce, especially with earnings coming up in roughly 39 days. Historically, Sofi tends to rally before earnings, followed by a post-earnings selloff. The speaker is intrigued by the continued return of shares by short sellers but notes that short interest hasn’t dropped as much as expected. The video concludes by affirming that Sofi staying above $8 is a positive sign, with after-hours buying activity reinforcing this view.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Sofi
💡Market manipulation
💡Short interest
💡Options trading
💡Support level
💡Stochastic oscillator
💡Federal Reserve rate cuts
💡Jeremy's stock sale
💡After-hours trading
💡Earnings report
Highlights
Sofi recently experienced a drop of 1.71% but managed to hold above the $8 mark, maintaining critical support despite market volatility.
Staying above $8 is seen as crucial for Sofi, especially with the market's volatility and wild price swings.
Low-volume trading manipulation was suspected, with 35.9 million shares traded, compared to an average of 40.6 million.
Jeremy, a major shareholder, sold 68,000 shares due to personal reasons (divorce), which doesn't reflect Sofi's performance.
Concerns arise if Sofi's CEO, Anthony Noto, were to sell shares, but Jeremy's sale isn't alarming.
Investors are awaiting Federal Reserve meetings in November and December, speculating about potential rate cuts and their impact on the market.
Short sellers returned about 1.45 million shares, contributing to volatility, with 18.5% of Sofi's free float being shorted.
The average borrowing cost for shorted shares is around 0.93%, which remains low despite the short interest.
Options trading was a key focus, with $946 million in call options and $578 million in put options, though 66% of the activity was bearish.
After-hours trading saw significant activity, with market makers likely covering options positions, possibly leading to a small price bump.
Technically, Sofi experienced consolidation, with the stochastic oscillator showing it's in overbought territory, potentially signaling a pullback.
Retail investors appear to be exiting positions, which may add to short-term pressure on the stock.
Key support levels to watch: If Sofi falls below $8.22, the next major support is at $7.79.
Sofi tends to rally in the leadup to earnings and sell off afterward, with earnings expected in approximately 39 days.
Despite short interest decreasing since its peak on September 13th, the drop hasn’t been as significant as expected.
Transcripts
today I'm going to talk about Sofi and
give you a detailed breakdown of
everything that's been going on hello
everyone welcome to daily stock update
if you are new to the channel be sure to
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so you never miss any of our uploads and
also enter our giveaway but before that
alert this is not a financial advice
video now let's get started Sofi
recently experienced a drop of 1.71% but
more importantly held above the $8 Mark
while that might not seem like a big
deal staying above $8 is critical for
maintaining support especially given the
Market's volatility if you've been
following Sofi like I have you probably
noticed the wild price swings at one
point the stock dipped to8 and or three
cents and it almost seemed like there
was an effort to push it below eights
however the price held steady which is
good news despite what appeared to be
Market manipulation this type of low
volume trading manipulation isn't new
for Sofi on this particular day around
35.9 million shares were traded compared
to the average of 40.6 million
interestingly about 6 million of those
shares were traded after hours and
that's closely tied to options trading
which I'll explain in a moment there
wasn't any major news coming directly
from Sofi today however there was an SEC
filing a 144 form which was filed at
10:11 a.m. indicating that Jeremy is
selling another 68,000 shares if you've
been following you might recall that
Jeremy is going through a messy divorce
which likely explains why he's selling
it's not a reason to panic his decision
is personal and doesn't reflect on
sofi's performance however if Anthony
notto sofi's CEO were selling that would
be a different story divorce proceedings
can be costly and Jeremy's situation is
likely driving his decision but again
this isn't something that should impact
your view of the company itself now
let's step back and look at the broader
Market investors are still trying to
make sense of the federal reserve's
potential rate Cuts there's speculation
that we could see a 50 basis point cut
which has raised a lot of questions does
this signal a recession will consumer
spending increase or will we see new
highs in the market these are the kinds
of questions that investors are
grappling with based on the upcoming
Federal Reserve meetings in November and
December there's talk of further rate
cuts which could significantly impact
the market some analysts argue this
could signal a downturn While others
believe it's a positive sign that could
push the market higher what are your
thoughts on this shifting gears back to
Sofi there's been some interesting
activity on the short side short sellers
returned about 1.45 million shares today
which is slightly down from the 2
million shares shares they were
returning earlier in the session short
sellers seemed to be buying back shares
toward the end of the day which
contributed to the volatility we saw
unfortunately I don't have access to the
detailed routing data to see exactly who
was behind these transactions but it's
pretty clear that large institutional
players were responsible if anyone out
there has access to that kind of
information I encourage you to dig in
it's crucial to understand who's behind
these moves as of now about 18.5% of
sofi's free float is being shorted which
translates to roughly 193. 45 million
shares the average borrowing cost is
around
0.93% which is relatively low but the
amount of short interest shows there's
still significant pressure on the stock
it's something we need to watch closely
now the real Focus today was options
trading Sofi closed above eight with
$946 million in call options and 578
million in p options despite the stock
holding above $8 about 66% of the
options activity today was bearish when
you look at the open interest there are
about 43,000 contracts at the eight
strike while the $750 and7 strikes have
around 13,000 and 18,000 contracts
respectively after hours trading was
also active with several significant
transactions happening it's likely that
many of these were market makers
covering their options positions which
could lead to a small bump in the stock
price early next week with Sofi closing
at 8 cents it's sitting just above the
key support level of 802 cents keep an
eye on that in the coming days
technically today was a day of
consolidation there's nothing wrong with
that as stocks can't go up every day the
stochastic oscillator shows that Sofi is
still in overbought territory sitting at
79 we're also seeing the beginnings of a
bearish crossover which could signal
more consolidation or even a slight
pullback in the near
future additionally some retail
investors appear to be exiting their
positions which could add to short-term
pressure on the stock looking ahead
there are key support levels to watch if
Sofi Falls below 822 the next major
support is at 779 in my opinion Sofi has
a good chance of bouncing off these
levels and trending higher especially
with earnings on the horizon while we
don't have an exact date for sofi's
earnings report many believe it's coming
up in about 39 days historically Sofi
tends to Rally in the leadup to earnings
followed by a selloff afterward so keep
that in mind what do you think of sofi's
recent performance the fact that short
sellers have been returning shares is
interesting and while short interest has
decreased since its peak on September
13th it hasn't come down as much as I
expected do you see this as a sign of
strength or just just a temporary blip
today's price action was certainly
dramatic were you as surprised as I was
or have you gotten used to these wild
swings regardless Sofi staying above $8
is a win and the after hours buying is a
positive sign friends that's all we have
for you today what is your opinion about
today video get involved and let us know
in the comments down
below thanks for watching
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