The Earth Transformed: An Untold History | Peter Frankopan in conversation with Yuvan Aves
Summary
TLDRIn this thought-provoking discussion, Peter Frankopan explores the intricate connections between human history and the natural world. He emphasizes the importance of considering climate and environmental factors in understanding historical events and societal changes. Drawing on a range of examples from different periods and regions, Frankopan highlights how these elements have shaped human actions and decisions, leading to significant transformations. He also discusses the role of human agency and the impact of natural disasters, climate change, and resource management on the rise and fall of empires and societies. The conversation underscores the value of a holistic approach to history, one that integrates diverse factors and perspectives to gain a more nuanced understanding of our past and present.
Takeaways
- 🌧️ The speaker appreciates the rain as a great primer for the session, symbolizing the connection between weather and human activities.
- 📚 The speaker envies Peter's students, highlighting the importance of understanding human agency and climate's role in history.
- 🌍 The discussion emphasizes the need to consider the Earth's transformation and human impact on the environment as part of historical study.
- 🤔 The process of inquiry in history involves questioning conventional narratives and considering the influence of climate and nature on historical events.
- 🏆 The speaker's experience as a historian focuses on the interplay between human actions and the natural world, particularly in relation to climate change.
- ⚽️ The analogy of Manchester City's success due to its ownership by a sovereign wealth fund illustrates the impact of natural resources on historical outcomes.
- 🌊 The importance of considering the natural world, such as ocean currents and volcanic eruptions, in shaping human history is emphasized.
- 🌬️ The concept of 'shock events' like natural disasters and pandemics is discussed, highlighting their significant influence on societal structures and responses.
- 📈 The speaker discusses the 'Little Ice Age' and its impact on global colonization, technology, and societal changes.
- 🌱 The interconnectedness of global history is stressed, with India playing a pivotal role in connecting different historical narratives.
- 💡 The speaker advocates for a holistic view of history that incorporates environmental factors and the need for sustainable practices.
Q & A
What are the two main reasons the speaker envies Peter's students?
-The speaker envies Peter's students because of Peter's approach to history, which emphasizes human agency and its interaction with climate and nature, and because Peter asks different questions of the past that lead to unique insights.
How does the speaker describe the traditional portrayal of history in schools?
-The speaker describes traditional history education as focusing heavily on 'great men' and a few notable women, with little attention given to broader environmental and societal factors.
What is the significance of the term 'Heisenberg's uncertainty principle' in the context of the transcript?
-The term is used to illustrate the idea that our understanding of reality is shaped by the questions we ask, and that our perception of history can change when we start questioning it from different angles, such as considering the impact of climate and nature.
What is the importance of considering natural resources and environmental factors in historical analysis?
-Considering natural resources and environmental factors helps to provide a more holistic and accurate understanding of historical events and societal changes, as these elements have played crucial roles in shaping human history.
How does the speaker connect the natural world and historical events?
-The speaker connects the natural world and historical events by discussing how weather systems, resource exploitation, and environmental changes have influenced the rise and fall of empires, the outcomes of wars, and the development of civilizations.
What is the significance of the 'little ice age' in the speaker's discussion?
-The 'little ice age' is significant because it represents a period of climatic change that had far-reaching effects on societies, including influencing migration patterns, trade, and the development of technologies.
How does the speaker view the impact of climate change on future generations?
-The speaker views the impact of climate change on future generations as a pressing issue, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of the interconnectedness of climate, society, and the natural world to address the challenges ahead.
What is the main message the speaker hopes to convey through his book?
-The main message the speaker hopes to convey is the importance of understanding the complex interplay between human history, climate, and the natural world, and the need to rethink our approach to these issues in order to create a more sustainable future.
How does the speaker describe the role of historians in addressing environmental challenges?
-The speaker describes the role of historians as crucial in explaining how we have reached current environmental issues and in helping to reevaluate our understanding of history through the lens of climate and nature.
What is the significance of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan for the speaker's argument?
-The earthquake and tsunami in Japan serve as an example of how natural disasters can have wide-ranging and unexpected consequences, such as the destabilization of the Fukushima nuclear facility, and highlight the interconnectedness of global systems.
How does the speaker address the issue of biodiversity loss and mass extinction?
-The speaker addresses biodiversity loss and mass extinction by discussing how historical events and human actions have contributed to these issues and by emphasizing the need to consider the natural world and its limits in our decision-making processes.
Outlines
🌧️ Rain as a Historical Primer
The speaker begins by likening the rain to a primer for the session, expressing envy for Peter's students. The speaker's admiration stems from two main reasons: the transformation of historical narratives to include climate and nature, and the novel questions posed to history that reveal different insights. The speaker also recalls Heisenberg's notion of reality being shaped by our questioning and applies it to Peter's approach to history.
🌍 Human and Natural Agency in History
The speaker discusses the traditional focus on human agency in historical narratives and the neglect of natural influences such as climate and resource exploitation. The speaker criticizes the narrow view of history centered on individuals and advocates for a broader perspective that considers environmental factors. Using examples like Manchester City's success and the British Empire, the speaker illustrates how natural resources have shaped historical outcomes.
🌊 The Influence of Natural Forces on Human History
The speaker delves into the impact of natural forces such as solar flares, ocean currents, and volcanic eruptions on human history. The discussion includes the concept of societal shocks leading to collapse and the importance of understanding these forces in the context of history. The speaker also touches on the interconnectedness of global networks and the fragility they introduce, using examples like the Fukushima nuclear incident and the little ice age.
🏰 Collapse, Recovery, and the Role of Climate
The speaker explores the theme of societal collapse and recovery, emphasizing the role of climate and environmental factors. Using historical examples like the Mayan civilization and the Bengal famine, the speaker illustrates how climatic changes and natural disasters can lead to significant societal shifts. The speaker also discusses the impact of the little ice age on European colonization and the interconnectedness of global trade and environmental conditions.
📜 Historical Texts and the Natural World
The speaker discusses the deep contemplation of the natural world in historical texts and traditions, such as the sacred writings in India. The speaker highlights the importance of rain as a divine sign in various cultures and the connection between climate patterns and political stability. The speaker also touches on the historical efforts to conserve resources and the role of religious and imperial edicts in environmental management.
🌿 Nature, Sacrality, and the Cycles of History
The speaker reflects on the historical connection between nature and sacrality, noting a recurring pattern where civilizations draw from natural elements for their spiritual beliefs, then forget this connection, leading to environmental degradation. The speaker draws parallels to modern climate activism as a form of new organized religion, with a message of urgency and potential apocalyptic consequences. The speaker also examines the role of priestly classes in controlling knowledge and their influence on societal structures.
🏫 The Role of Education in Addressing Global Challenges
The speaker discusses the importance of education in addressing global challenges, particularly in the context of climate change and environmental degradation. The speaker criticizes the current state of higher education for its exclusivity and suggests a more inclusive approach. The speaker also highlights the need for politicians and policymakers to be educated on issues such as social inequality, urban regeneration, and sustainable development, and expresses hope for a tipping point where society takes the environment more seriously.
🌐 Earth System Boundaries and the Future
The speaker addresses the concept of Earth system boundaries, highlighting the interconnectedness of various environmental issues beyond just climate change. The speaker emphasizes the importance of considering all aspects of the natural world and the need for hope amidst the challenges. The speaker also discusses the potential for innovation and research in tackling these issues, as well as the need for collective action and preparedness for future challenges.
📚 The Craft of Historical Writing
The speaker shares insights on the process of historical writing, emphasizing the importance of passion and personal connection to the subject matter. The speaker encourages young historians to explore a wide range of topics and find the one that resonates most with them. The speaker also discusses the challenges of publishing and the need to persist in the face of rejection.
🌌 The Younger Dryas and Prehistoric Civilizations
The speaker responds to a question about the Younger Dryas period and the theory of prehistoric civilizations, expressing skepticism about the idea of a sudden shift in human development around 10,000 BC. The speaker advocates for a more nuanced understanding of the gradual changes in human societies and lifestyles, and cautions against oversimplifying complex historical processes.
🌱 Learning from the Past for Climate Action
The speaker addresses a young person's question about knowledge from past civilizations that could help in the fight against climate change. The speaker affirms that there is much to learn from history and encourages the younger generation to engage with historical knowledge to inform future action. The speaker also promotes the importance of historical research in understanding and addressing contemporary environmental challenges.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Human agency
💡Climate change
💡Environmental history
💡Sustainability
💡Globalization
💡Natural resources
💡Cultural heritage
💡Interconnectedness
💡Technological advancements
💡Shock theory
Highlights
The discussion emphasizes the importance of considering human agency and climate's role in shaping history.
Peter's session highlights the need to ask different questions of the past to reveal unique insights, such as the impact of climate on historical events.
The narrative contrasts the traditional focus on 'great men' in history with a more comprehensive view that includes environmental factors.
The speaker's research process involved examining the beginning of history and reevaluating the significance of geological formations and ecosystems.
The speaker brings attention to the exploitation of natural resources and its implications on history, such as the impact of oil on the British Empire.
The speaker discusses the interconnectedness of global history, including the influence of environmental factors like solar flares and volcanic eruptions on human events.
The conversation highlights the importance of being prepared for environmental shocks, drawing parallels with driving at different speeds and the ability to react.
The discussion touches on the 'Little Ice Age' and its effects on global colonization and European history, including changes in art, literature, and technology.
The speaker notes the influence of climatic changes on historical events such as the Bengal famine and the East India Company's collapse.
The conversation underscores the significance of understanding the natural world's role in shaping human history and the interconnectedness of global events.
The speaker reflects on the importance of local solutions to environmental challenges and the potential of indigenous and small-scale communities.
The discussion includes the impact of climate change on modern warfare and the energy-intensive nature of military activities.
The speaker addresses the role of historians in connecting local histories into global narratives and the importance of India's role in these stories.
The conversation emphasizes the need for a holistic view of environmental challenges, beyond just climate change, including water stress and biodiversity loss.
The speaker expresses optimism for the future, despite the challenges, by highlighting the potential for innovation and the importance of education and policy-making.
The discussion concludes with the speaker's encouragement for the younger generation to learn from past civilizations and apply that knowledge to address current and future challenges.
Transcripts
hello everyone today's rain I think was
a great primer for Peter's
session and you know when I studied
history if I had this book I would have
loved history and I I envy his students
um for for two main reasons one is that
the Earth
transformed Des
centers to to a good extent human agency
I got to sh it at the back so you can
see
it there we go there we are yeah uh and
and looks at a an agent who's much
vaster which is climate and nature
itself and secondly he asks a totally
different set of questions to the past
which then brings up a completely
different set of
Revelations uh where most of the search
party is not and I was uh reading
through this I was reminded of wner
Heisenberg who said we don't see reality
as it is but its aspect exposed to our
questioning and Peter somewhere there's
my first question what was your process
of inquiry and questioning and uh
research for this yeah well thank you
you thank you jlf for inviting me to
come to this fantastic festival and
thank you all for being here I'm glad
you're not just here because it's
raining because the rain has stopped um
it's a good very good question I mean
this amazing Festival there's been two
parallel themes I think one has been
there's been a lot of discussion about
climate and climate change the crisis
renewable energy and then there's been
Lots on literature history and so on and
there's been not much relationship
between these two right so we hear the
history that I learned at school was
about almost all of them great men a few
great women Queen Elizabeth the first
flying the flag for for women but that
was about it and that kind of Netflix
iation of History where we're only
looking at individuals you there was a
panel this morning about biographies and
how to write biographies means that we
will go through thinking about the past
without ever
considering weather conditions use of
Natural Resources whether they're
exploited or undere exploited overe
exploited and these big themes of that
are very boring for most people but for
historians it's our bread and butter of
things like Logistics soil sedimentation
in rivers and ports um you know how
people are thinking about the natural
world it's very easy to forget because
we we tend to prioritize is human agency
but you know despite what we think we're
not the only species on this planet and
despite what we might think if we get
our own if we destroy our own
environment quickly enough there's going
to be a lot fewer of us in the future so
I think my job as a historian is to
explain how it is that we've come to
that bit in a beginning of a Bollywood
film where Shah ruk Khan is hanging on
to the skyscraper with one hand about to
fall and the good news is shro Khan
normally never Falls right that's what
happens he saves the day but how is it
that we've come to a point where we're
talking about biodiversity loss a six
mass extinction and then how have people
in the past thought about periods of
change which is what we're living
through both of Technology the natural
world uh new hierarchies inequalities
and so on and so that the the process
was how do I start at the beginning and
as a historian I was I'm embarrassed
that I have never really thought about
geological formations the roles of
ecosystem systems before humans history
for me started with Mesopotamian
civilization indis Valley and that's
such a tiny tiny tiny fraction of the
world's history and it over prioritizes
human agency so those interactions of
weather systems the natural world you
know how our world exists even today I'm
a football fan right unfortunately or
fortunately my team is
Chelsea um the current champion the best
team in the world today is Manchester
City and if I were to ask most people
why they'd say they've got the best
players uh they've got the best manager
if you really enlightened you say they'
got the best training staff the best
nutritionists but the reason why
Manchester city are the best team in the
world is because they're owned by a
sovereign wealth fund that sits on top
of the one of the world's greatest
hydrocarbon basins that was formed
hundreds of millions of years ago and
the gas that sits under that provides
almost unlimited wealth for Abu Dhabi
who owns Manchester City or part of Abu
Dhabi to to to to buy the best place
have the best facilities and those roles
in which the natural world is always
constant around us but we don't think
about it goes through to everything the
British Empire the great challenge of
the British Empire in the 20th century
was that although a quarter of the world
was colored pink there was almost no oil
and before 1900 oil wasn't really
exploited in big commercial um
quantities but in the from 1900 onwards
it started to be and that helped explain
the maps that were drawn in the Middle
East that well you know they're here
today to remind us of what happens of
the search for Commodities and resources
to think about the natural world to
think about how it's exploited and also
how the natural world shapes and
dictates where we are is hugely
important in a city like Jaipur where um
you use 1.4 million liters of water
every day in the city and you have one
water source apart from the rains that
came today you have the dam that's it so
thinking about environmental envelopes
thinking about the challenges and the
opportunities that provides I think it's
a it's a good starting point to think
about um history as a whole um jumping
on to that
there are certain Central players in the
book they include and one might never
come across them in other history
textbooks and that makes it unique solar
fles and Minima uh microbial activity
ocean currents um and and volcanic
eruptions and how they shaped human
history where there's some sense of oh
we did this but no we were being peted
you know that's that's the background
which comes at me would you uh reflect
on that well so our our planet has lots
of very complex interconnected weather
systems that they don't always behave in
the way that we imagine and expect and
they're highly highly complex um but
there are certain some there are some
certain rhythms that the Earth has in
terms of the eccentricity of its orbit
how the Sun behaves and so on that that
shape the the world that we live in now
as far as humans exist and and are are
concerned the single biggest challenge
to organized states are
shocks um if you are caught unprepared
for something then those shocks
typically will tend to increase
inequalities they will tend to lead to
State disruption and you know one
question I ask in my book a lot is when
societies collapse uh that's bad for
archaeologists right when people stop
building big temples in tial in
Guatemala that I write about the great
Mayan world around about the year 8 or
900 there's a whole system of of network
collapses not just to do with climate
changes there were there was a 70E
uh unusually long drought period but all
the overlapping ways in which uh the
ways in which the lime plaster was would
come off in when it did rain into water
tanks that then poisoned populations
with Mercury and Mercury we know is
linked to violence it's linked to
cognitive issues and so on um when those
M temples stop being built that's a
disaster if you're a historian of the
Maya people it's really bad if you're a
remember of the Mayan Elite um same with
the temples in uh you know gangai Kola
Forum this massive new Temple we heard
about the cholas yesterday uh that's
really bad but if you are peasant
working in the fields the collapse of
your priesthood and of your secular
rulers may not necessarily be a bad
thing in fact might be quite a good
thing because the the the results of
your labor don't flow to someone else so
the the challenge I think is how to
think about where States rise and fall
who do they benefit how do networks that
are look they look robust how can they
suddenly collapse and the good new well
the good or bad news is last time I was
here in Jaipur four years ago was just
as the pandemic was starting to shut us
all down in 2020 and it turns out that a
single event in a single City in a
single country locked us all up for B
best part of two years and did all those
things inequality government debts huge
shock incompetence wastage and has fed
into this kind of brittle world that we
see around us and so how you how you
factor in climate and the natural world
into much bigger things it's really
important to have Nuance this where my
book is quite long um but it's important
I think to be reentering away from it's
not just decisions made in Delhi in
London or by Donald Trump or whoever it
might be but these highly complex
interconnected networks across natural
worlds and everything else too I think
the shock Theory explains I mean it it's
just coming as a revelation where if you
look at Indian lawmaking you look at the
environment protection act it came after
the bopal gas tragedy you look at a
bunch of other things something has to
people don't seem to uh you know act
preemptively but something shocks and
then it comes well I'll give an example
so um the the awful earthquake off the
coast of Japan that that um impacted the
terrible tsunami um uh that that then
led to the destabilization of Fukushima
uh nuclear facility as a direct result
of that the new anti-nuclear lobber in
Germany which was extremely has always
been very powerful the green lobby in
Germany is very powerful and very
successful in translating election
results into seats in Parliament and to
being part of the government uh decided
this showed that nuclear power the
dangers of nuclear power and Angela
Merkel who was the belluard chancellor
at the time did what lots of politicians
do you you move and you take the the
best ideas of your Rivals right and
maybe that's a good thing in democracies
U but she announced two weeks afterwards
that the German nucle industry would be
shut down and as a result German has
Germany has a still a very high my
manufacturing base very energy intensive
uh the most logical place to replace
that energy shortage was by building new
pipelines from Russia and that
dependency on Russian energy was about
55% before the Russian invasion of
Ukraine and so the process of that Putin
had to think about what would be the
implications of a Russian invasion
military operation as he call special
military operation uh was that Europe
would starve and Europe would freeze and
that was to do with thinking about
geology of course but also about these
shock events that are deeply deeply
connected so you're exactly right youan
when you when you are not prepared for
things and then you're caught by
surprise you tend to react badly and
sometimes dangerously I suppose it's
like driving a car you don't get to do
this in jaipore except for late at night
or early in the morning you tend not to
be able to drive at 70 or 80 miles an
hour uh but if you are driving fast and
something bad bad happens your
opportunity to correct it are limited if
you're driving at 10 m an hour uh then
you're fine so preparing for those acts
are are important and you know again you
mentioned volcanoes that the main us U
Volcan volcano observatory in monoa in
Hawaii one of the world's massive super
volcanoes put out a press statement in
December 2022 which said monola is
waking up and it's quoted Benjamin
Franklin rather ominously saying if you
fail to prepare you prepare to fail so
all of these things around us pathogenic
diseases pandemics volcanic eruptions uh
earthquakes uh the ways in which we're
highly connected to each other uh makes
us all hyper fragile and when you start
to look at things connections like the
Silk Roads when you think about networks
in pre-colombian Americas if you look at
uh the ways in which uh trans Saharan
traffic has been arranged over Millennia
then things can fall and fall very very
quickly and that comes us a surprise
because most people think that Empires
are robust and they're large and they're
stable but it doesn't work that way if I
might take a specific period which which
I found very deeply interesting
interesting and and and uh you know
uncovering of many things that period
between 15th century and 18th century
where uh it's called the little ice age
and you specifically talk about the uh
Atlantic Meridian oscillation there's an
ocean current which reverses itself and
completely changes whatever is happening
in Europe including movement from there
and deaths and
uh would that be a nice thing to talk
about you know great yeah I mean so we
historians we argue a lot about names
and and if you were to ask my colleagues
who work on this all the time what the
little ice age is and when does it start
and finish there'd be as many answers
there are people on the stage but
broadly speaking there's a period
between around about, 1550 and 1800 give
or take where we see on in many parts of
the world not all parts of the world but
but we see um uh much cooler conditions
for all sorts of different reasons
partly to do with in the 1590s a set of
volcanic eruptions about five big ones
that creates in the northern hemisphere
the coldest decade for the last 2,000
years and that has lots of implications
and impacts one is that it's much harder
to heat buildings so you have rooms seem
to become smaller or they become smaller
um over the course of the 1600s partly
to do with the fact that um that you
need less energy to heat them uh one a
bunch of clever Scholars suggest that
with smaller rooms the capacity for
gossip goes up because you can talk
unobserved and that that leads into to
the ways in which narrative histories in
which poetry in which the literary
tradition start to change smaller rooms
require different kind of art to be hung
on the wall so there are lots of things
that might flow from the fact that it's
cold or it might be that those were
flowing anyway and the fact that it's
cold is completely irrelevant but the
key I think in in this as a as a period
is it's a it's a 300E period where
European Footprints expand globally so
it's a period of intense competition in
our small continent of Europe highly
unstable for many many reasons from 1350
until more or less the start of the 20th
century there wasn't a single decade
that didn't involve major confrontation
between European powers sometimes in in
pondicherry sometimes in other parts of
the world some in the Caribbean but
often in Europe itself so one of the
other themes you see alongside cooler
conditions anxieties about migration uh
you know we find graffiti in in
Elizabethan graveyards in the 1590s
saying we're going to come for anybody
who's Jewish or foreign because you are
like the Dutch you steal our women you
take away our food and you feed
yourselves the ideas of xenophobia and
the the poisonous things that come with
anxieties and shortages um you know the
interesting ways in which the later
Shakespeare plays involve winter and win
and coldness and so on Winter's taale of
course being one of those but I think
that what what happens alongside this is
you find new technologies that come
alongside change and a lot of those are
to do with
militarization some are to do with
gunpowder some are to do with
improvements in metal work some are to
do with in terms of better training so
typically battles between European
armies in the 15 1600s will have a few
thousand casualties and they'll be over
quite quickly because you can't load
your gun fast enough by 1700 they
involve tens of thousands of casualties
and they allow for Mass use of force so
in this period of of climatic change
when transatlantic trade is is booming
if you're European shipping of of
enslaved peoples from Africa in
particular to um North America South
America and the Caribbean and then the
expansions into Europe then calculations
about wind speed and how well you can
sail in Westerly or easterly winds makes
a big difference and there's a
differential of about 80 kilm per day if
you're sailing into a Westerly wind or
into easterly wind these shift roughly
every 15 years so some of these things I
think are are setting a scene for well
it's not just a little ice age it's an
age of colonizations by the Northern
Hemisphere lots of interest about saying
the reason why Europeans are able to
dominate the world is because people in
cold climates Thrive and people in
tropical climates don't and uh you've
heard Mary bid talk about the Roman
Empire you doesn't take you much to know
the Roman Empire was a nice warm place
you know typically you wore nice leather
dress uh you sit in the hills of Tuscany
today drinking Bros um but those sort of
ways in which the world interconnected
in a period of globalization where the
intense anxieties around calorie
provision the redistribution of global
crops were all part of a of a discrete
period where for lots of reasons for of
periods in the northern hemisphere there
were cooler conditions but you know from
the little I agage point of from the
perspective of India What mattered much
more were the failure of monsoon Reigns
in the 1760s that lays the conditions
for uh what's known as the Bengal famine
the deaths of well millions and maybe
many many millions and then leads to the
rupture the collapse if Willie D rimple
about the East India Company which is
directly connected to Declaration of
Independence in Northern American
colonies so none of it is driven by the
fact that it's a bit cold or there's
lots of volcanic eruptions but factoring
in wind speeds factoring in ocean
temperatures factoring in improvements
in Technologies lots of inter in
European slavers to work out how do they
drive up their profits by improving
sanitation so that they even more people
can be enslaved and shipped across to
work on lands that are more fertile in
the 1700s onwards than they were in the
1500s for example the Spanish in Florida
kept writing home for the first hundred
years saying Florida is absolutely
bloody freezing there's nothing we can
grow here it's a useless piece of land
and I I when I look at Florida or hear
about Florida that's where old people go
to rre in the sunshine and you grow grow
oranges and you play golf and the idea
this was a freezing cold place doesn't
make didn't make any sense until you
start to think well what what were the
conditions at that time so the iage can
be a capture for lots of different ideas
and themes but layering in the the
Transformations and the changes into
whatever aspect of the the histories
you're looking at you know I just think
it's a factor that's very very easy to
overlook okay um I think one of the
beautiful things about the book is that
you show interconnectedness as as the
Earth and all the various politics and
you know climatic changes as a whole and
I wonder if we can speak a little bit
more about India which which is a common
thread and you speak quite a bit about
it yeah that's a small
question I've already given quite long
answers so we could be here for a
while well you know I think you start at
the beginning I I suppose with the with
the written text the sacred the sacred
vadas onwards and then the upanishads
and the ways in which writers in the
past are thinking deeply about the
natural world and often in ideas about
Harmony and of uh of interactions with
the Divine and in the in the Hindu
traditions in the indic Traditions a bit
like in most other Faith systems the
appearance of rain from the skies on you
know when it's been um uh too hot is is
a sign of divine benevolence it's a sign
of the right prayers being said by the
right people in the right way the right
form of living morality in China for
example the famous Mandate of Heaven
that the emperor carries is is very
closely connected to um uh predictable
climatic sequences partly because
agrarian economies rely on food being
grown and if you have drought you find
it hard to grow food and if you have
floods you have crops that are washed
away so lots of States lots of belief
systems are very interested in those
interactions between the Divine trying
to work out why is there sometimes
suffering what have we done wrong uh why
are we being rewarded in connections to
moralities so those kinds of ideas I
think when you then start to move
forward in time and you see edicts like
the great Asoka saying we need to have
interdictions on cutting down the
forests we need to Marshal our resources
carefully you know we shouldn't have the
slaughter of innocent animals we need to
protect uh resources some of that is
about Imperial or Royal control over
money and and ritual and of power but
some of it is also about a much more
thoughtful engagement about making sure
there's enough for everybody to go
around and you know then when when you
move onwards you know again I I read
things like uh vamir Mira writing about
in the gup to dynasties writing about
what happens when the sun's rays are
unusually weak and the crops can't grow
and it feels like you're living in a
ghost world and he's writing this at a
time when again there is a sequence of
eruptions in the 530s 540s of our of our
era uh that are directly connected to
the really big pandemic of the period
that has an impact here in Northern
India too which we can measure um where
you see the collapse of trading networks
of what's known as the justinianic
plague a plague that spreads out
probably from folai in um in Central
Asia is carried because probably those
cold climates Drive the animals that can
help transmit the pathogen into context
that they need to find more food and
typically they'll come closer to human
settlements and when that happens the
ignition like with the bat in Wuhan
takes everything in front of it and the
yesinia the the Y pesus the Yia pesus
pathogen can establish itself in irat
Colony for 150 years you know if it's
established and it's spread not just by
rats who take all the blame in histories
here in India the rat has a very
different role to how it has in Western
histories but all sorts of different
animals can can spread these pandemics
and so the the questions about why a
diseas has come from who is being
punished and why all very closely I
think connected Into Climate
instabilities and shocks and then you
know again we like like I said with the
with the cholas one of the things that's
most interesting about the great Chola
Empire of Southern India and its
expansions and pushes eastwards is that
it doesn't do so on its own it's this is
in a period it's called the the medieval
warm period that has the same problems
that the little ice age has too in in
having the evidence to support where
it's it St the stability but the Chola
world you can't understand without
seeing it in connection with the K world
the world of pagan the great Abbasid
Empire the s in China uh the late antic
the Revival of the Byzantine empire in
the Eastern Mediterranean and these
these these worlds all mushroom together
in a Glo in an age of globalization and
and the Indian subcontinent is a pivot
that connects the North and the South
and the East and the West the mar time
connections and of course more important
the Overland ones because the Dem
demographies of Asia are Inland
particularly into the Persian world into
China and into Central Asia these great
Metropolis cities the centers of
learning so so India fits and the Indian
subcontinent the different dynasties fit
into thinking globally and of course
thinking regionally but it's a sort of
fundamental part of how we think about
history in my profession as historians
we've not been good enough about
connecting Indian histories into these
great Global narratives because it's
quite hard to do and it's quite hard to
not just be Regional but to think over
long periods of time but you know the
Indian experiences in in in terms of
consumption in terms of expenditure in
terms of the ways in which the natural
world are one of the great stories of
our common World histories and you know
it's it's great to see how many young
historians here in Indian universities
are working on these topics um because
it's and in fact was almost LED from
Scholars here um thinking about how to
engage better with the natural world and
its teachings yeah okay you know one
chapter which was specifically
interesting and I and I went through
multiple times was uh that on nature and
sacrality and
u a common sort of occurrence seemed to
be that the Genesis of any sacrality
religion Drew from nature in some sense
and then forgot about it drew from it
forgot about it and at every age there
seem to be you know who we now see as
the the Fridays of future movement the
extin I mean there was there was
somebody or some text or some poet
saying we are screwing up we got to stop
or that could have even been an emperor
and and and you speak about everything
from Gilgamesh to China to and uh and
and that repeating sense
of things have vanished and and as such
things weren't put to a stop and that
cycle seems to have continued well it it
continues now I mean you could think of
some of the climate activists I have a
huge amount of respect for as a form of
new organized religion you know there's
we have priests and pretests of this
movement a lot of them very young U but
the message of
apocalyptic uh consequences of
thoughtlessness is is one that has lots
of Echoes from different different
belief systems way back into the past I
suppose that you know as a as someone
who's also an economic historian I
suppose the kind of starting point for
me is looking at at how priests would
established control of the secal message
is what I suppose you're also asking
about and some of that has to do with
the establishment of writing systems the
code ification of knowledge the
protection of knowledge
universities they are specifically
exclusive you know they they they don't
let people in that's like my University
you have to apply but most people don't
get in you know we could be teaching
everybody for free but we can't we don't
we don't do our courses online we charge
people we control the message please I
hope my vice Chancellor isn't watching
because I could be in trouble for saying
that but you know I think that the the
the story of religions is also about the
establishment of a Priestly class often
with a dual balance withing L power that
controls messages and enforces them and
establishes sacred texts that have are
in harmony the tripitaka tradition of
Buddhism is about saying there's one set
of texts you can't have divergences you
know the Christian faith where I come
from uh again the church councils that
insist what the profession of Faith
looks like insist on what the messages
are what counts as heresy tears the
church apart repeatedly many many many
times it's the same thing with the
judaic tradition same thing with the
Holy Quran so we see this in in many
many different ways about who carries
the message and who has the right to to
protect knowledge and you know for
example in the in the indic Traditions
not just in Hinduism the complexity of
those stories is a barrier right it's it
it's designed to the only people who
have spent a long time
studying the the the Raman the
mahabarata vas Etc can really truly
understand these works and that's a way
of saying that you need to study and
that that power should go to the people
who control those and often those fit
into building of structures of temples
agricultural control and often becomes a
power rival to the church so or to to
the to the state so we found for example
in um in Pagan in the Kim world we were
just now in in Neil Camp not too far
away from about about an hour's drive
from here where so many temples get
built that there's a Suffocation process
that kills economic production because
these temples control so much land they
have so many tax concessions that
they're supporting so many priests who
are unproductive economic units because
people like us who have to study we
write books but we don't build roads we
don't dig sewage we don't recycle other
people's waste we uh so uh and that
means that the existence of a priesthood
is very important in that context of of
sacral messages and how the emergence of
a intellectual class uh sits alongside
um economic power is kind of one of the
stories I think that is unique to
civilize Urban societies it doesn't look
the same in many nomadic or oral
traditions where you have shamans who
play a role but the shaman is usually a
very small part demographically of of a
of a wider tribal unit there's normally
one or series of of whereas priesthoods
there are often thousands you know
thousands and thousands of Priests of
rabbis of imams of holy men and the more
you have of those the harder those U
balances of intellectual inequality as
well as well as economic that's if if we
can uh look at that a bit more deeply
the sort of interplay between uh climate
uh and and inequality and what that uh
sort of a relationship is and uh the
perhaps a related question would be you
know if we could speak about the latter
part of the book The Modern period um
and you speak about a range of
conferences and treaties which make
these big decisions and do they trickle
down to the ground um well you've
written about this what do you think um
I I'd give a short answer to that but
but please i' I'd like toar what you
think yeah in some sense uh I've felt
and I'm I'm definitely not a historian
so I think good Solutions or good
practices relationalities are unique so
they sort of M emerge locally but at the
same time they seem to be vulnerable to
uh big forces so so so I'm at a tussle
you know so you know what's the middle
path uh would be the question I'd ask
myself yeah you know I think I think
local communities wherever they are
normally are quite good at trying to
find Solutions you know that you find
that with indigenous peoples tribal
peoples Forest peoples small villages
tend to be quite good because the
interconnections of kinship the
interconnections of ritual and the fact
that everybody is linked in together um
that that obviously can help you know my
view is I'm I'm highly critical in my
book about the problems that cities give
us CI give us lots of wonderful things
they give us literature festivals for
one thing they give us the opportunity
to meet each other to buy and sell
things to listen to new ideas to
exchange genetics which I'm not going to
talk about again today but you know the
way which we can meet each other and and
have different relationships hugely
wealthy but cities are also parasites
because they are not producers they're
consumers they drag in they have energy
needs they have water needs they create
problems here in Jaipur this morning the
particulate matter is four times wh show
deemed safe levels right so everybody
here breathing this air we are
experiencing shorter like in India in
2018 1.6 million people died from fossil
fuel complications to do with air
pollution right that's a 18% of all
deaths in 2018 globally have been
attributed to air quality pollutions and
so when you live
intensively uh you tend to bet on a
shortterm answer rather than the
long-term one but most of the societies
that I've spent my career being
interested in pre-mongol step nomadic
peoples oral Traditions are very very
good at balancing environmental
challenges because they have some
resilience built in them and cities tend
not to and perhaps it I think it's no
coincidence that those histories of
nomadic peoples from the Mongols through
to the mugal here now you know the
narrative changing in
India uh you know has has always been
highly prora very negative but these
people are considered barbaric people
who don't live in cities who don't want
to have priests don't want to have
libraries don't have universities but
actually the sophistication of
governance the sophistication of
stability are are are in some way and
the complexity are often hugely
impressive to to look at so I think that
trying to think through what are the
costs of how we live um it's it's really
important but you know here no one in
jao wants the air quality to be worse no
one will leave here and go I'm really
pleased it's only four times not five
times everyone thinks how do we make
that happen and we're slightly at a log
Jam now where most of us think well it's
the government govern's job or it's the
you know the the city's responsibility
to impose new policies but I I hope that
we're at some kind of Tipping Point
where people are taking that envelope
around us more seriously you know in
Afghanistan in 2017 eight times more
civilians died from air pollution than
from um violence and attacks of any kind
so you know it's it's how to implement
and you know we did a panel this morning
thinking about some very very small
changes you know one of the thing I'm
slightly obsessed about at the moment is
is about lack of air conditioning in hot
locations and I don't just mean India in
New York City uh lots of exams get done
in the in the height of the summer and
poor neighborhoods and schools don't
have AC and there was some big research
published in the last couple of years
that show that tens of thousands of
students fail their graduation because
they SAT exams on hot days right and we
know that when it's hot your ability to
concentrate your cognitive your memory
recall all of things these things change
when it's hot for every degree um
there's a 6% rise in domestic violence
here in India above 30 degrees
Centigrade right this is all lots of
Scholars working on things like this so
one question would be why do we do exams
in the middle of the summer should we
have the the school Academic Year ending
in December where it's cooler should we
should we as a government prioritize
putting AC into low-income schools to
make sure that when kids sit exams
they're doing it equally rather than
kids in well established schools with
good air conditioning have a genuine
physical Advantage so some of these
things can be quite small steps they
quite a bit of bravery and they require
our politicians who I you know we just
heard Shashi theu to have a chance he's
great not don't mean Shashi but Mr Theo
I should say his Excellency um we need
to give our politicians more of a chance
to be educated you know so uh we have a
school of government in Oxford where we
are trying to encourage State leaders or
or high representatives to spend two or
three weeks every summer coming to
Oxford to to learn what are the latest
things in Social inequality in uh Urban
regeneration in sustainable cities
because if you are a policy maker or a
lawmaker you've got no time to read and
there's no structure to it you might
pick up your book or my book and be
inspired hopefully you will but having
that educative process is is important
for those who we vote into office in the
Democratic world and and it's it's a
it's a it's a lap it's a problem now I
think about education how do we give
more tools to people who can make policy
to to do small things and to do them
effectively but like I said I hope we're
at a Tipping Point where there are lots
of reason to be more optimistic in the
coming years so you know my last
question perhaps before we break for uh
you know questions from the audience um
what was beautiful um you know through
different chapters you know recently the
Earth commission released uh Quantified
all the Earth system boundaries whether
it be biodiversity or or aerosol loading
pollution water biochemical flows and um
not just climate climate is just one of
them and perhaps the threshold of
climate as yet has not been crossed you
know that 1.2 de or whatever warming and
uh you look at all of these things you
look at all the Earth system boundaries
whether it be nature Extinction of
species or pollution as you spoke and
water and uh and and to have woven
together this this uh tapestry through
which to see the past and uh what was
that like and yeah well it's a very nice
question CU it sounds like I did a good
job so thank you I mean I I think you
know the climate and the warming thing
is gets all the headlines but you know
here in India the primary thing is first
of all water stress um so um in 2020 350
billion cubic meters of water was taken
from the groundwater in the northern
Indian Plains and uh that along with
glacia melt has moved the position of
the North and the South Pole right that
that's quite something uh in Europe 10
years ago 19% of Europe was water
stressed we've had a state of emergency
announced in Catalonia around barel ER 3
days ago to prevent people from using
water in the way in which they're used
to you know in my country where
everything everyone knows that England
didn't do very well in the World Cup
cricket and I from what I heard we're
not doing so well this afternoon in the
Test match but the other thing everybody
knows about England is it rains quite a
lot but in the UK our expectations are
that by 2030 our demand for water is
going to exceed our um uh our ability to
provide water by
40% because we we're using more water to
make things to wash to to do all these
and there are finite supplies so we
haven't built a single Reservoir we
haven't built a single water capture
program for 40 years in the in the UK
and you know you see the dam here is
shortages you see with our own eyes so
water's a key thing habitat loss and
deforestation of course changes
environments for other animals and so on
and so pollinator loss is a huge problem
globally and and losing animals and
creatures you know we tend to think we
must save the Rhino we must save the
tiger we must save animals that we
beautify but you know it's the little
ones that we don't really like you know
Katherine Rond was talking about spiders
today you know it's quite right spiders
bugs you know the little things the
little flies that that fertilize our our
crops and our food if those disappear
then you know you're in real we're in
real trouble so so trying to be holistic
and trying to not just think about
climate but the natural world as a whole
and you know to try to give a little bit
of Hope as well so I did the audio book
of this one my my Publishers asked me
who I'd like to do who i' like to do the
audio recording and I said what do you
mean I said well give us a couple of
names so I went but everybody must say
George Clooney and okay do it yourself
so I recorded it and as I come towards
the end of my book and I say you know uh
the Earth survey done in the UK by the
British government by descripta says
that globally we're using 1.6 times the
the Earth Resources every year you know
we're crazy as a species to accelerate
our own demise and that my producer
knocked on the window and I was reading
through the last few pages and he said
look I'm really sorry I find this quite
difficult to see what reality looks like
you know when you start layering on what
the problems are not just well 1.5 and
so on but you know the the you know
contraception is ineffective if it's
stored above 30° right all these things
that are coming towards us maternal
healthc care the difficulties cognitive
Etc and and I said don't worry don't
worry it's going to be better and then I
put on some pages where we can be
optimistic and
the good news about about um knowledge
Keepers and universities is that we are
producing huge amounts of R&D huge
amounts of innovation lots of amazingly
exciting ideas you the Scott polar
Institute in Cambridge about you know
crazy ideas about how to mitigate and
maybe even reverse climate change most
scientists in the climate space are now
thinking not how do we slow it down
we've gone so far we're past 1.5 how do
we actually reverse and you know
geoengineering is a is a tricky one um
but you know there are lots of reasons
to be positive and and optimistic but
you know I think that the Cascade effect
of trying to look at everything in front
of us and not just at warming world is
pretty sobering and you know it's a job
of someone like me as an educator to
just explain where we are it's the job
of the people we elect to that work out
what we should do and to you know and
for investors to think about what kind
of solutions they want and for voters
decide in countries like ours where
we're lucky enough to choose our own
leaders who do we want to be preparing
for I suppose some opportunities in the
future but also the real challenges I
mean there are 500 roughly emerging
infectious diseases they're all highly
susceptible to climatic change we'll
have a world by 2080 where 90% is
susceptible to malaria and Deni fever as
it happens my university has produced a
malaria vaccine that's now being rolled
out into Cameroon if that works if we
can stay ahead of genetic mutations then
there's lots of reasons to be hopeful
but you know we should be planning ahead
like Benjamin Franklin
said let's have some questions now um
let let me look uh that lady in white
there in the middle in the middle
standing
yeah am I audible yeah yeah uh thank you
for the talk sir sir my question
pertains to the methodology of global
history itself how can one practice this
kind of History given uh like we have so
many sources how does one filter out the
sources and how does one identify
connections on such a vast scale
thank you are you a
historian I am doing my masters in
history currently yes good for you well
done good luck uh look it's really hard
and and there are lots of ways lots of
answers one could give one is high
levels of collaboration you know no no
no historian works on their own I mean
not just because we talk to each other
but because we're reading each other's
work all the time so it's a hugely
collaborative process so please don't
email me about to ask where the
footnotes are in the book they're all
online I think I've got 4,700 footnotes
to show that there are all these
wonderful Scholars who are working
together uh there are lots of projects
uh where we collaborate I'm running a a
a a levium project in usbekistan on
river systems to look at how Rivers have
changed over time and my collaborators
I'm working with some are archaeologists
some are river Specialists uh some are
people who are Osteo you interested in
in um in bone archaeology some are Arch
obotan ists skills that I wouldn't be
able to acquire so lot is how do we
collaborate uh with global histories you
know like all history it's expensive to
train young historians because you have
to pay fees but you got to learn
languages and you got to learn
methodologies but it is possible to do
but the more we talk to each other the
more we learn from each other the easier
it
becomes good luck with good luck with
your studies yeah any more questions uh
we can yes please yeah yes
please just
shout oh
great
uh really enjoyed reading your book very
voluminous but your last two
chapters uh would you like to expand on
it in the future with military emissions
something on that especially since since
1991 we are very much in a unipolar
world where Warfare seems to have become
a normal feature of
Life uh yeah okay I'll try and do a
short a short answer yeah you know the
US Department of Defense is the biggest
institutional user of fossil fuels in
the world would rank if it was an if it
was an independent state flying planes
blowing up tanks building missiles it's
hugely energy intensive for Metals for
everything rare Earths and so on um a
report that came out at the end of last
year by the Department of Defense
estimates the impact of climate change
to US military installations that puts
the budget to fix these at $380 billion
just for us defense facilities they're
about 560,000 US facil military
facilities around the world which is a
lot India doesn't have quite so many but
any state that is involved in missile
exploration space exploration like India
is with its f blander with its programs
of the Moon investing in the military is
extremely expensive um and it's highly
energy consumptive uh would you if I was
to bet will we spend more in our
different countries on defense in 10
years time than we do today yes I will
we spend a lot more on defense than we
do today I would also answer yes uh but
you know historians are very
pessimistic uh I've got a much more
optim istic wife that I tells me to keep
happy and smiling and not scare people
because why read a book if we're all
going to die I think if you're going to
die then you might as well read a good
book so you might as well read mine uh
but no I think I think defending on
defense it is changing I mean
nowadays you we're about you know it
takes time to catch up but submarines
aircraft carriers big programs are
probably in an era now where small
Technologies make a big difference the
world that we should be protecting
against are things like cyber attacks
where one person with a laptop whether
they're in state employee or not can
bring down
energy grids water systems and those
things are difficult to protect against
so yeah the militarization of our world
is is a real problem for energy for
climate for material consumption and for
hierarchies people invest in these
things can make big returns and a more
fractured worlds means bigger
opportunities for those who are willing
to do
so any any young people have questions
here uh with the red scarf there yeah
yeah first gentleman of the Red
Scarf there's a there's a child here
with a question yes please yeah uh you
first ma'am you first yeah hello if if
there's a small child with a question
here yeah
on we'll come back uh hello sir hello
sir thank you for coming to my talk
you're the future you're the Next
Generation that will save the mistakes
My Generation made okay so so my
question is that actually I am also like
taking Inspirations from almost like
many writers and I want want to ask that
sir when you started your journey
getting into the getting submerged into
the writings and all so sir what was
your first thought that no I'll write
this how did you conclude that what
topic to pick it was like it is very
difficult for me to pick a particular
topic that which one should I start
with I mean I'm going to say that you
youan done a great job moderating but
when I come back to jao next time will
you come and be in discussion with me on
the
stage well I I'm going to give I'm going
to give you an answer that's going to be
very unhelpful but will you come and
find me afterwards I'll give you a copy
of my silk words illustrated book for
younger readers right so come and find
me and I will give that to you as a as a
present but um
the the least she you should all give
this young lady but anyway um no my the
answer is I is is the answer you don't
want me to give which is don't pick read
everything you know if you're in a
buffet try everything until you find the
one thing you think tastes and looks
better than anything else and we are all
made different the things I chose no one
was interested in you know no one
thought that um anyone would read my
books even my last publisher didn't
didn't refuse to publish a book called
The Silk rose that I wrote so I had to
move publisher to my current home
Bloomsbury thank you very much bloombury
but you need to find something that is
passionate for you that speaks to you
speaks to your heart and your soul and
the thing that you want to then explain
to other people and historians are
people who tell other people's stories
and if you can do that as well as you've
done this morning that would be great
but find the thing that you want rather
than listen to some old old spanker like
me that gentleman with the red scarf
there hello uh yeah uh so I just wanted
to uh know your opinion on the younger D
impact Theory
10,000 years ago I think there's a view
coming that prehistory didn't start from
civilizations but there was civilization
before 10,000 BC and there was a
cataclysmic event which wiped out uh you
know a ancient form of civilization do
you have any opinions on that uh I don't
know if you've heard people like Graham
Hancock and Randall castle and people
like that uh yeah I mean okay well the
younger so the younger about 10 12,000
years ago it's a sort of it's a it's a
climatic boundary and and um climatic
boundaries a bit like temples for
archaeologists everybody loves round
numbers right 10,000 12,000 years ago uh
these ideas that there's a sort of spark
moment where humans develop agriculture
or start living in cities is not uh
School of scholarship to which I belong
I think the organic small incremental
changes to be very careful about what
we're thinking about when it comes to
cities settle Lifestyles Hunter
Gatherings this is a much more Blended
period so I I'd be very
hesitant to pin too much on the younger
d as apart from the fact that there is a
clear moment where we're moving into a
new geological time zone we got one more
time for one more before the buzz one
more quick question quick question so
young young person there with the pink
hat young boy there or or a girl
yeah yeah you you with the pink cap
there and white uh
sweater are there any knowledges from
the past civilizations that we can use
to help us against in our fight against
climate change and that we can be able
to make predictions for our future where
the climate and what are
concerned I'm just wondering if you can
catch Peter after this if the children
can catch you after you come and get a
book from me but this that that question
and the young ladies all your questions
is the reason why I love this Festival
it is such a privilege to have questions
like this Brave young people asking is
there stuff we can learn yes is the is
the short answer but come come and find
me as well with the pink hats Ju Just a
last line the subtitle of the book is an
untold history and in its vastness and
vividness it's truly that and I hope
you'll buy it yeah thank you thank
you
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