Dalal Street Week Ahead: SEPTEMBER 4TH Week | 2024 | P R Sundar
Summary
TLDRIn the DAL Street Week Ahead program, PR Sundar discusses market trends, noting that recent rallies have been concentrated on Fridays, causing losses for intraday traders. He advises caution on Fridays but sees opportunities for positional traders, with the market bullish between 25,000 and 26,000. Technical analysis has been accurate, with Nifty and Bank Nifty showing significant rallies after crossing certain levels. Sundar anticipates a consolidation for Nifty between 25,500 and 26,000, with increased volatility due to the options expiry. He suggests that despite potential market fluctuations, selling put options below 25,000 could be profitable, and considers 25,000 as a support level for October, barring unforeseen events.
Takeaways
- 📈 Markets rallied about 2% last week, with most of the rally happening on Friday, indicating a strong trend on that day.
- 🔍 The speaker advises caution on Fridays, as many intraday traders have lost significant amounts of money recently.
- 📉 The speaker has been recommending a bullish stance, suggesting that dips towards 25,000 are opportunities to add more positions.
- 📊 Technical analysis has been accurate, with Nifty and Bank Nifty showing significant rallies after crossing certain thresholds.
- 🚀 Bank Nifty has surged more than 2,000 points in six trading sessions, reflecting a shift in market trends post-Fed rate cut.
- 💹 The speaker anticipates Nifty to trade between 25,500 and 26,000 in the coming week, due to market consolidation.
- 📊 Open interest in options is high, with 26,000 call options and 25,700 put options attracting significant attention.
- 🌪️ Expectations of market volatility are high, especially in the last week of the expiry, influenced by the Global Market Assessment (GMA) effect.
- 📅 The upcoming week is expected to be eventful with potential market movements of 250 to 300 points over four trading sessions.
- 🏛️ The speaker mentions upcoming events like state elections in October that may influence market behavior.
Q & A
What was the market performance last week as mentioned in the script?
-Last week, the markets rallied about 2%, with most of the rally occurring on the last Friday.
Why are Fridays considered a trending day for the Nifty index in the past two to three months?
-In the past two and a half months, out of five trading sessions where the Nifty rallied more than 300 points, four of those trading sessions happened on Fridays.
What advice was given to intraday traders regarding trading on Fridays?
-Intraday traders are advised to be very careful on Fridays as many have lost significant amounts of money, and it's suggested that it might be better to avoid trading on Fridays.
What has been the stance on the market for positional traders according to the script?
-Positional traders have been advised that the market is bullish and any fall towards 25,000 is an opportunity to add more put positions at 25,000.
What technical analysis was mentioned regarding the Nifty index crossing 24975?
-The script mentioned that when the Nifty index crossed 24975, it was a signal to go long, which was followed by a rally of more than 800 points.
What was the significance of the Bank Nifty crossing 21840 as per the script?
-Crossing 21840 for Bank Nifty was a signal to go long, and within six to seven trading sessions, it shot up more than 2,000 points.
How does the script describe the overall market sentiment post the US Fed rate cut?
-The script describes the market as very bullish post the US Fed rate cut, with a shift in focus from defensive sectors to cyclical sectors.
What is the expected trading range for the Nifty index in the coming week according to the script?
-The script expects the Nifty index to trade between 25500 and 26,000 in the coming week.
What is the expected market behavior during the last week of the expiry as per the script?
-The script expects the market to be very volatile during the last week of the expiry, with the GMA effect kicking in and the potential for the Nifty to move about 250 to 300 points.
What are the potential events in October that could impact the market as mentioned in the script?
-The script mentions that state elections in Kashmir and Haryana in October might cause some market reaction.
What is the view on market consolidation and opportunities for option sellers as per the script?
-The script suggests that the market will consolidate with a positive bias, and any intraday fall is an opportunity to sell more put options at 25,000 and below.
Outlines
📈 Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
In the video script, PR Sund discusses the recent market rally, noting that the Nifty index has seen significant gains, particularly on Fridays over the past few months. He warns intraday traders about the risks of trading on Fridays, citing instances of substantial losses. For position traders, he advises that the market is bullish and that dips towards 25,000 points should be seen as opportunities to add more positions. He also discusses his successful technical analysis predictions, such as the Nifty going long after crossing 24,975 points and the Bank Nifty going long after crossing 21,840 points. He anticipates a consolidation phase for the Nifty, suggesting it will trade between 25,500 and 26,000 points. He also mentions the impact of the Fed rate cut on market sectors, particularly cyclical stocks, and the significant inflow of funds into the market.
🔍 Market Volatility and Future Predictions
The second paragraph focuses on the expected market volatility, especially in the last week of the expiry series. PR Sund anticipates that the Nifty will experience significant movement, possibly between 250 to 300 points over four trading sessions. He discusses the potential impact of options trading, suggesting that even a 200-point move could benefit option sellers due to time value. He also touches on the upcoming economic data releases and their potential influence on the market, but notes that the market may be less responsive to data due to the recent Fed rate cut. He concludes by suggesting that the market will likely consolidate with a positive bias and that any intraday falls could be an opportunity to sell more put options. He also briefly mentions upcoming events in October that could affect market sentiment.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Rally
💡Nifty
💡Intraday Traders
💡Positional Traders
💡Technical Analysis
💡Bank Nifty
💡Fed Rate Cut
💡Open Interest
💡Volatility
💡Option Sellers
💡Consolidation
Highlights
Markets rallied about 2% last week, with most of the rally coming on Friday.
Nifty has rallied on five trading sessions more than 300 points in the past two and a half months, with four of those sessions being on Fridays.
Fridays have been trending days for the market in the last two to three months.
Intraday traders have lost significant amounts of money on Fridays, with some losing 2-5% of their capital.
Positional traders are benefiting as markets have been bullish, with 25,000 to 26,000 being the range mentioned.
Technical analysis has been accurate, with Nifty going long after crossing 24975, leading to an 800-point rally.
Bank Nifty also went long after crossing 21840, resulting in a 2,000-point increase in six to seven trading sessions.
The market is very bullish, and the rally is causing concern among analysts.
Nifty 26,000 is less than 1% away and could be reached at any time.
Highest open interest on the downside or upside will be taken out to scare option writers.
Defensive sectors like FMCG and Pharma were doing well until the Fed rate cut, after which cyclical sectors may pick up.
Bank Nifty's rise of 2,000 points in six trading sessions reflects a shift in market dynamics post-Fed rate cut.
FII pumped in 14,000 CR when the market and Bank Nifty hit all-time highs.
Nifty is expected to trade between 25500 and 26,000 in the coming week, with consolidation after recent rallies.
The market is expected to be very volatile in the last week of the expiry due to the GMA effect.
Nifty could move about 250 to 300 points in the next four trading sessions, with volatility affecting both upside and downside.
The upcoming series is a 5-week series, and September has been very volatile due to the US Fed rate cut.
There are no more important news events, and people will focus more on positioning in F&O rather than data.
US GDP data is upcoming, but the market may not worry much about it due to the Fed's rate cut indications.
Manufacturing and PMI data are not significant concerns for India, which is not a data-dependent market.
The market is expected to consolidate with a positive bias, and any intraday fall is an opportunity to sell more put options below 25,000.
For the month of October, 25,000 should be a support, but there are events like state elections that might cause fluctuations.
Transcripts
this is PR Sund welcome to DAL stre week
ahead program sponsored by delta.
exchange last week markets rallied about
2% but most of the rally came on last
Friday in the last few months if You
observe in the past like maybe two and a
half months Nifty rallied on five
trading sessions more than 300
points out of this five trading session
four trading session happen on Friday
the Friday is a very very trending day
for the last two to three months the one
has to be very very careful even Friday
morning in pre-market I mentioned that
Fridays you know you have to be very
very careful and look at the last Friday
many many intraday Traders have lost
heavy amount of money right and I know
some people have lost even 2% 3% 5% of
their Capital so at least you know for
intraday Traders it's better to avoid
trading on
Fridays uh but positional Traders are
very happy because you know since the
beginning of this month I've been saying
that 25,000 to 26,000 is the range and
I've been saying that markets are
bullish and any fall towards 25,000 is
an opport opportunity to add more put
positions at
25,000 and that is working out very very
well not only that even the technical
analysis has been doing very well this
time if you can remember I told you
Nifty is long when 24975 was crossed and
then now you see it's a more than 800
Point rally the same thing uh I last to
Last Friday uh I mentioned that
the bank Nifty is long when 21840 is
crossed and now see within six seven
trading sessions Bank Nifty has shot up
more than 2,000
points so markets are very very bullish
there is no doubt about it and in fact
this kind of rally is worrying the
analyst most of the analysts I met I
talk you know so they're very very
cautious in fact I've also been very
very cautious
shares so now Nifty 26,000 is just less
than 1% away it can go anytime if I'm
not wrong you know uh once in few months
the highest open interest on the
downside or highest open interest on the
upside will be taken out to scare the
option
wrers so since the beginning of this
month 25,000 put and 26,000 call they
both had the highest open interest they
have scattered 25,000 fo you know in
between the market men to
24800 and now who knows they may scare
the people who are selling the call
option at
26,000 but we still have four more
trading
sessions now particularly this time one
big change you know until last week or
we can say before the Fed rate uh cut
the defenses were doing well
it was doing well fmcg was doing well
and Pharma was doing well but now after
the Fed rate cut the probably the
cyclical May pick up so that is what
reflected from the bank Nifty and
shooting up 2,000 point in six trading
sessions and then f are pumping in
14,000 CR when the market is at alltime
high and the bank Nifty hits alltime
high right so that's how F behave
so uh if you look at this week the
coming week I do expect Nifty to trade
between 25500 and
26,000 uh maybe it's a very small range
uh the reason is that you know in the
last two weeks Nifty has already rallied
on two trading sessions one trading
session about uh 400 Point another
trading session about 300 plus points so
logically at least for next few trading
s
Nifty will have to
consolidate so that is the reason why
I'm
expecting 25500 on the downside and
26,000 on the high side and moreover if
you look at the
options 26,000 call option still has the
highest open interest but on the
downside because the rally was so
powerful on Friday uh even 25700 put
option added huge open interest so 25700
25600 25500 all you know but you can't
take this as The Benchmark you know
probably those people would have sold
call options earlier say for example
somebody was sold 25 800 call option by
thinking that'll be the resistance now
Market is going to 25800 so they might
be selling more put options aggressively
so that you know uh that break even will
be
better so otherwise you know 25500 to
26,000 should be the reasonable range
for the coming week last week of the
expiry so definitely the markets will be
very very volatile the GMA effect will
be kicking in and you know usually you
know if the markets are very very
volatile the last week will be even more
volatile so I expect Nifty to move about
250 to 300 points in the next 400 four
trading sessions but we don't know
whether it is on the upside or down side
or it can be both sides also so anyway
so let us see but even if it moves 200
Point higher you know uh the time value
will help option sellers to make some
money so anyway so next series is going
to be more interesting because it's a 5
we series and luckily the September is a
4 we series and very very volatile
series but it was a huge rally because
of the US Fed rate cut
so there are no more important uh news
because these are last week people will
be focusing more on positioning in fendo
rather than the data but US GDP data is
there so but now because the FED has
already cut the rate 50 basis point and
already indicated another 50 basis point
cut by the end of this calendar year so
the people may not worry too much about
that uh uh uh GTP data also so here you
know some manufacturing pay my data I
know like India is not a data dependent
market so there's nothing to worry much
about it so let us see whether the
market consolidates so my view is that
market will consolidate with a positive
bias in case if any intraday uh fall
that is an opportunity to sell more put
options 25,000 and Below uh now I feel
that even for the month of October
25,000 should be a support but there are
a few events in October like you know
Kashmir and harana state elections you
know there might be some nature
creaction so that we will see later so
we will pass this xer first so that's it
for now hope you enjoyed watching this
video thank you for watching
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)