Pourquoi la bourse US est-elle si chère ?

Summary

The transcript discusses the high valuation of the American stock market, attributing it to a historical high Price-to-Earnings (PER) ratio. It explores various factors contributing to this phenomenon, including the technology sector's growth, low-interest rates, fear of bonds post a significant bond market crash, and a global savings glut. The role of ETFs and the 'Americanization' of investment portfolios is also highlighted. The speaker ponders whether the current high valuation is temporary or structural, and invites viewers to share their thoughts.

Takeaways

• 📈 The U.S. stock market is considered expensive due to a high Price-to-Earnings (PER) ratio of over 20, which is historically high.
• 🔄 Market valuations have fluctuated between bubbles and bursts, with a general upward trend since the early 2000s.
• 💡 The rise of technology companies with new and durable business models has significantly impacted market valuations.
• 🌐 Global savings, particularly those accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic, have increasingly been directed towards the stock market.
• 📊 The fear of bonds, especially following the significant bond market crash, has led investors to prefer stocks as an investment.
• 💰 The abundance of savings chasing a relatively stable number of publicly traded companies has led to higher valuations.
• 🌐 The 'Americanization' of investments, with a global shift towards U.S. stock market indices, particularly through ETFs, has increased demand for U.S. stocks.
• 🔄 The rise in technology stocks and their impressive fundamentals has led to high valuations, but their sustainability is uncertain.
• 📈 Despite temporary factors like market optimism and bond fears, the structural shift in investment patterns, especially among younger generations, suggests a lasting impact on stock valuations.
• 🤔 The speaker is uncertain whether the current high valuations are a temporary phenomenon or indicative of a new era of investment.
• 💬 The speaker invites listeners to share their opinions on whether the current market conditions are a bubble or a sign of a structural change in the investment landscape.

Q & A

Why is the American stock market considered expensive?

The American stock market is considered expensive due to its high Price-to-Earnings (PER) ratio, which is historically above 20. This is not just about reaching historical highs in stock prices, but rather how much a dollar of profit is valued on the stock market.

What is the significance of the PER ratio in evaluating the stock market?

The PER ratio is a valuation metric that shows how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company's earnings. A high PER ratio, like over 20, indicates that the market is expensive as investors are valuing profits at higher prices.

What are the historical fluctuations in the American stock market's valuation?

Historically, the American stock market has experienced cycles of bubbles and crashes. Since the early 2000s, there has been a general trend of increasing valuations, with periods of high PER ratios followed by corrections.

How has the technology sector impacted stock market valuations?

The technology sector has introduced new business models that have never been seen before, leading to impressive and sustainable growth with significant competitive advantages. This has resulted in high valuations for tech companies, contributing to the overall high valuation of the stock market.

What role do low-interest rates play in stock market valuations?

Low-interest rates have contributed to higher stock market valuations as they reduce the cost of borrowing and increase the present value of future earnings. Investors may also prefer stocks over bonds when interest rates are near zero.

Why has there been a shift towards investing in stocks over other assets?

There has been a shift towards investing in stocks due to a fear of bonds following a significant bond market crash. Additionally, real estate prices are high, and cash holdings are not attractive, leading investors to prefer stocks as an alternative.

How has the savings behavior of the population influenced the stock market?

The savings behavior, particularly increased saving during the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to more money being available for investment in the stock market. This increased demand has contributed to higher stock valuations.

What is the impact of ETFs and DCA on stock market valuations?

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategies have made investing in stocks simpler and more accessible, leading to more people investing in the stock market. This increased demand can contribute to higher stock valuations.

How has the Americanization of investments affected stock market valuations?

The Americanization of investments refers to the global trend of investing in American stocks, particularly the largest companies listed on the S&P 500. This has led to a significant increase in demand for these stocks, driving up their valuations.

What are the implications of the increasing foreign ownership of American stocks?

The increasing foreign ownership of American stocks indicates a growing global demand for these assets. This can lead to higher valuations as more investors compete for the same number of shares, creating a supply and demand imbalance.

How do the valuations of the S&P 500 compare to smaller and non-US companies?

The S&P 500, which includes the largest US companies, has higher valuations compared to smaller and non-US companies. This is reflected in the higher PER ratios of the S&P 500 compared to the average and smaller capitalizations.

What are the potential future trends in stock market valuations?

The future trends in stock market valuations will depend on various factors, including the continued growth of technology companies, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on savings behavior, and the normalization of interest rates. It remains uncertain whether the current high valuations are a new norm or a temporary phenomenon.