How Much Money Do You Need to Start Arbitrage / Positive EV Betting?

Summary

This video script discusses the financial requirements for starting arbitrage and plus EV betting in sports. It advises beginners to start with a small bankroll, like $100, to learn the ropes and avoid significant losses. The speaker recommends a minimum of $1,000 to $2,000 for practical purposes, emphasizing the importance of maximizing expected value and return on investment. The script also introduces Odds Jam, a software for finding arbitrage opportunities, and touches on the Kelly criterion for calculating bet sizes to balance risk and reward. The speaker warns against betting too much to prevent bookies from restricting accounts and suggests using multiple bookie accounts to capitalize on opportunities and deposit match offers.

Takeaways

• 💡 The minimum recommended starting bankroll for arbitrage and plus EV betting is $100, but for practical purposes, $1,000 to $2,000 is advised.
• 📈 Starting with a small bankroll allows beginners to learn and minimize losses from mistakes.
• 🚫 Avoid betting more than $500 on a single bet to prevent bookies from potentially canceling bets or restricting accounts.
• 📊 Arbitrage opportunities can offer a guaranteed profit, albeit usually at a lower percentage (around 1-2%).
• 💰 The expected profit increases with the size of the bets placed, but it's crucial to balance risk and reward.
• 🔍 Using tools like Odds Jam can help identify arbitrage and positive EV betting opportunities from various bookies.
• 💼 The Kelly criterion is a strategy to determine bet sizing based on maximizing expected returns while minimizing bankruptcy risk.
• 📈 Positive EV bets can offer higher expected returns, sometimes up to 19%, but they come with more risk and require careful calculation.
• 🔗 Having multiple bookie accounts with funds is essential for capturing arbitrage and positive EV opportunities as they arise.
• 💸 Bookies often offer deposit match bonuses, which can be capitalized on with a larger starting bankroll to gain extra funds.

Q & A

What is the minimum bankroll recommended for starting arbitrage and plus EV betting?

Theoretically, you can start with as little as $100 or even $50, but practically, it is recommended to start with at least $1,000 or ideally $2,000 as your starting bankroll.

Why is it suggested to start with a small amount in arbitrage and plus EV betting?

Starting with a small amount allows beginners to learn without significant risk. It helps in understanding the process and minimizing losses from mistakes like betting on the wrong market or outcome.

What is the potential risk of betting too much money on a single bet according to the script?

Bookies may not allow large bets to go through, potentially cancelling them or restricting the account, which could lead to significant losses in potential profits.

What is an arbitrage opportunity and how does it work?

An arbitrage opportunity is a situation where you can bet on all possible outcomes of an event and guarantee a profit regardless of the result. It involves placing bets with different bookmakers to cover all outcomes and lock in a profit.

How does the script suggest using software like Odds Jam for arbitrage and plus EV betting?

Odds Jam is recommended for finding arbitrage and positive expected value opportunities by getting odds from different bookies and calculating the best bets to maximize profits.

What is the Kelly criterion mentioned in the script, and how does it help in betting?

The Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize expected value while minimizing the risk of bankruptcy. It calculates the percentage of the bankroll to bet based on the potential return and risk.

Why is it important to have multiple bookie accounts for arbitrage and plus EV betting?

Having multiple bookie accounts allows you to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities and positive EV bets that may not always be available on the same bookmaker. It also enables you to capture deposit match offers for additional funds.

What is the significance of the 'edge' in plus EV betting as discussed in the script?

The 'edge' in plus EV betting refers to the percentage advantage a bettor has over the bookmaker. A higher edge indicates a greater expected return on the bet, which is crucial for long-term profitability.

How does the script suggest managing your bankroll when starting with arbitrage and plus EV betting?

The script suggests starting with a bankroll of at least $1,000 to $2,000, adjusting bets according to the Kelly criterion, and updating the bankroll as profits are made to increase potential profits over time.

What is the potential daily profit from arbitrage and plus EV betting as discussed in the script?

The potential daily profit from arbitrage is around 2% of the bankroll, while for plus EV betting, it could be as high as 7% of the bankroll, depending on the opportunities and the effectiveness of the betting strategy.

Outlines

00:00

💰 Starting Capital for Arbitrage and Plus EV Betting

The speaker addresses the common question about the required starting capital for arbitrage and plus EV (expected value) betting. They clarify that while theoretically one could start with as little as $100 or even $50, practically, they recommend a minimum of $1,000 to $2,000. This amount is suggested to maximize potential net profits and to learn the ropes without risking significant capital. The speaker emphasizes the importance of starting small to understand betting mechanics and avoid costly mistakes. They introduce 'Odds Jam', a software for finding arbitrage and plus EV opportunities, and provide a discount code for the audience. An example of an arbitrage opportunity is given, demonstrating how even a $1 bet can yield a small profit, and the potential for larger profits as the betting amount increases.

05:02

📈 Scaling Up with Arbitrage and Plus EV Betting

This paragraph delves into the practical aspects of scaling up betting with a focus on arbitrage and plus EV betting. The speaker advises against betting too small, as it may not cover operational costs, and too large, as it could lead to bookies canceling bets or restricting accounts. They suggest a sweet spot of $100 to $500 per bet. The speaker discusses the average percentage edge for arbitrage, which is typically not very high, and introduces the Kelly criterion as a tool for calculating optimal betting amounts to maximize returns while minimizing bankruptcy risk. 'Odds Jam' is highlighted again for its ability to integrate the Kelly criterion into its betting tool. Examples are given to illustrate how different bets with varying edges affect the recommended betting amounts and expected returns. The speaker also touches on the importance of having a sufficient bankroll to capitalize on multiple betting opportunities and the benefits of updating the bankroll as profits accumulate.

10:03

🔗 Closing Remarks and Call to Action

In the final paragraph, the speaker wraps up the discussion with a call to action, encouraging viewers to like and subscribe for more sports betting content and money-making tips. They remind viewers of the 'Odds Jam' discount offer and express well wishes for the audience, indicating the end of the video.

Keywords

💡Arbitrage

Arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of price differences of the same asset across different markets to make a profit. In the context of the video, it refers to betting on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers to ensure a profit regardless of the result. The video mentions starting with a small amount for arbitrage to learn the ropes, such as placing a $1 bet to demonstrate the concept.

💡Plus EV Betting

Plus EV (Expected Value) Betting refers to making bets that have a positive expected value, meaning that over the long run, the bets are expected to yield a profit. The video discusses this as a more complex method than arbitrage, involving more risk and mathematical calculations, and it's where the Kelly Criterion comes into play.

💡Bankroll

A bankroll in betting refers to the total amount of money one has available to wager. The video emphasizes the importance of starting with a bankroll of at least $1,000 to $2,000 for practical purposes, as it allows for maximizing expected returns while managing risk.

💡Odds Jam

Odds Jam is described as arbitrage and plus EV calculator software used in the video to find betting opportunities. It is used to demonstrate how to identify arbitrage opportunities and calculate bets based on the Kelly Criterion, highlighting its utility for US-based bettors.

💡Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithm of wealth. In the video, it's used to calculate the percentage of the bankroll to bet on each opportunity to maximize expected returns while minimizing the risk of bankruptcy.

💡Bookmakers

Bookmakers are individuals or companies that take bets on various events, often sports. The video discusses the importance of having accounts with multiple bookmakers to be able to take advantage of arbitrage and plus EV opportunities as they arise.

💡Deposit Match Offers

Deposit match offers are promotions by bookmakers where they match the amount deposited by a customer up to a certain limit. The video mentions these as a way to increase one's bankroll and capture additional funds for betting.

💡Profit on Turnover

Profit on turnover refers to the percentage profit made relative to the total amount wagered. The video uses this term to illustrate the guaranteed profit from an arbitrage bet, such as making a 6.08% profit on a $1 bet.

💡Risk-Free

Risk-free in the context of the video refers to betting opportunities where the outcome is guaranteed to result in a profit, as in the case of arbitrage. This is contrasted with plus EV betting, which is not risk-free but has a positive expected value.

💡Edge

Edge in betting refers to the advantage a bettor has over the bookmaker, usually expressed as a percentage. The video discusses the edge in arbitrage opportunities and how it generally isn't very high, but with a consistent edge, even a small one can lead to significant profits over time.

💡Betting Tools

Betting tools are resources or software that assist bettors in making informed decisions. In the video, Odds Jam's betting tools are highlighted for their ability to calculate positive EV bets and integrate with a bet tracker for better management of betting activities.

Highlights

Theoretical minimum starting bankroll for arbitrage and plus EV betting is as low as $100 or even $50.

Practically recommended starting bankroll is at least $1,000 or ideally $2,000 for beginners.

Starting with a small bankroll helps maximize expected value or return in net profits.

For complete beginners, starting with one-dollar bets is suggested to learn without significant risk.

Odds Jam is recommended as a tool for finding arbitrage and plus EV opportunities in the US.

Using a $1 bet as an example, the potential profit from an arbitrage opportunity is demonstrated.

Scaling up the bet size from $1 to $10 increases the potential profit from 13 cents to $1.31.

Higher bet sizes lead to higher expected profits, but also higher risks.

Arbitrage opportunities typically offer a lower percentage edge, around 1-2%.

A $2,000 bankroll is sufficient for most arbitrage opportunities and minimizes the risk of significant bankroll damage.

Bookies may restrict accounts for large bets, so a sweet spot of $100 to $500 per bet is suggested.

The Kelly criterion is introduced for calculating optimal bet sizes to maximize returns while minimizing risk.

Odds Jam includes a feature for the Kelly criterion to help with bet sizing in plus EV betting.

A higher bankroll allows for larger bets and higher expected returns in plus EV betting.

An edge of 7% in plus EV betting with a $2,000 bankroll could yield an expected profit of $140 per day.

Having multiple bookie accounts with funds is necessary for capturing arbitrage and plus EV opportunities.

Deposit match offers from bookies can be capitalized on with a larger starting bankroll.

A $2,000 starting bankroll is recommended to justify the time spent finding and placing bets.

Transcripts

how much money do you need to start

arbitrage and plus ev betting this is a

question i get asked very commonly and

like most things on this channel i can

explain the answer to this question

mathematically but i have to break it to

you first arbitrage and plus ev betting

can be a little bit of a grind it's not

as simple as

putting a few dollars on a 10 leg multi

that your friend says is a guaranteed

and hoping that it goes and wins i'm not

going to beat around the bush so i'll

just give you guys the answer straight

away theoretically you can start off

with as little as 100 or even a 50

bankroll if you just want to learn in

fact for those completely new to

arbitrage or plus ev betting i actually

recommend you just start off with a very

small amount however practically i'll

recommend you start off with at least

one thousand dollars or if possible two

thousand dollars as you're starting

bankroll which is actually what i

recommend for my sports betting course

any more than that and it's probably not

necessary i'll explain in detail the

logic behind this number in a little bit

but the main idea of it is to try to

just maximize the expected value or

return in net profits that you can

potentially make let's see how we can

learn with a small starting bank roll

first you might actually have no idea

what a bet even is or how to place a bet

so instead of sizing up right away let's

start off small

and because you probably don't know what

you are doing start off with like just

one dollar bets and you can see what

kind of things will happen if you make a

mistake such as you bet on the wrong

market or bet on the opposite outcome

instead then there's no biggie the

maximum you're risking is just one

dollar worst case scenario let's say you

make 50 of these mistakes in a row which

really shouldn't happen but even with

that you've only really lost just 50

so let's take a look at an arbitrage

opportunity and see how much money we

can make with just spending a single

dollar to demonstrate i'm using odds jam

which is a great arbitrage and plus ev

calculator software for those in the

united states which gets the odds

straight from all the different bookies

out there and finds the arbitrage and

positive expected value opportunities i

can confidently recommend odds jam to

anyone who is residing in the us and is

keen to start off with their betting

journeys to get 25 off your first month

you can either use the link in the

description down below or in the card

somewhere up here and enter in the code

shane25 to be able to get 25 off for

your first month so this is an example

of an arbitrage on their site

so let's take a look at this example on

atlanta braves this is pittsburgh

pirates

it's a baseball band game with an

arbitrage opportunity on zak thompson um

number of strikeouts can be over 3.5 or

under 3.5 we can cover all the outcomes

in this match

so let's see if we put one dollar on

each of them

so if we bet one dollar on over 3.5 on

the first bookmaker with the odds of 116

then if it wins and we make 2.16 back

we would also need to cover the other

outcome to get the arbitrage opportunity

we would bet a dollar and three cents

it's being recommended

and if that wins we make 2016 cents but

lose the dollar so either way we've

deployed two dollars and three cents

we're guaranteed to get two dollars and

16 cents back so we get an overall

profit of 13 cents

and that is a 6.08

um

profit on turnover as shown here

in this percent icon

so that was for a one dollar bet

now let's say we could do ten dollars

instead of the one dollar that we had

initially while we're not making only 13

cents now we're making a dollar 31 with

a total stake of 10 times what we had

before

if we put 100 then we make a 13

guaranteed profit

if we put 200 then we make a guaranteed

profit of 26.

if we put 500 we get a guaranteed profit

of 65. we will need to deploy 1014

and so on

so we can see the more we're betting the

more expected profit that we can expect

to make

and we can see for new york these are

all the arbitrage opportunities out

there

some are very good five percent or six

percent but generally they're around

close to one point nine percent or

sometimes a bit higher than two percent

and new ones will come in each day some

of these might the bookies might change

their pricing and disappear but you can

generally find a lot of these

opportunities for at least two percent

so this is a great way to wrap your head

around the mathematics and play around

with things with just a small dollar

amount of cash now personally i wouldn't

recommend putting more than 500 ever on

a single bet bookies can play very dirty

if your bet is too big they could

potentially not let your bet go through

and say it's pending or just cancel your

bet or even worse they could even

restrict your account and that's going

to cost you a lot more in potential

profits in the long run so you don't

want to be betting too small as you're

going to be making less than the

electricity actually takes to run your

computer but you don't want to be

betting too much either so around 100 to

maybe 500 is probably the sweet spot if

you're able to find a few of these

opportunities each day which is very

likely then your 2 000 in bankroll is

more than sufficient to cover all of it

now we can see the percentage edge for

arbitrage is generally not that high if

we have an edge of 2 on average and we

deploy our entire 2k each day then our

expected profit or in this case it's

actually guaranteed and risk-free then

we're still only going to be making

forty dollars of profit each day two

percent might not sound like a lot but

it's two percent each day not two

percent per year like most savings

accounts out there but still what if we

want to make more we could go with the

plus ev method but it does become a

little bit more complicated as there's a

bit more risk and mathematical

calculations that become involved

luckily there is something called the

kelly criterion which helps us to

calculate exactly how much we should be

betting on every positive ev opportunity

that we find it calculates the

percentage of our bankroll to bet based

on maximizing the expected returns we

are going to be getting but also

minimizing the risk that we will end up

being bankrupt if we bet too much of our

bankroll each time luckily this is also

built into odds jam so let's go through

an example so the first thing i have to

do is set my bankroll so if i go to my

profile if i go to bet settings i will

see a starting bankroll let's say i have

two thousand dollars and i just keep it

simple and set my kelly multiplier to

one

so now instead of the arbitrage section

we can go to betting tools and go to the

positive ev tab

now you can see the percentage or

expected return or edge we have

is a lot higher now we're no longer

making about two percent on average

we can get opportunities all the way up

to nineteen percent and there's a plenty

of opportunities above five percent and

around ten percent

so let's take a look at this calculator

i have my kelly multiplier set to one

and this is the bet that is positive

expected value with a nineteen point

seven percent edge

it's recommending me to bet 145.89

or 7.29 percent of my bankroll this

means if i'm betting 145.89

then my expected returns in the long run

are

145.89 times 19.7 percent

which is close to about 30 dollars for

this positive ev bet

if i go to this one i can see it's

recommending me to bet less because the

opportunity is not as good and the odds

are higher so it's only recommending me

to bet 114 dollars and 80 cents and

therefore my expected return on this one

is 114 times 11.49

or

around 12 dollars

it also has a neat feature of just

straight up adding this to the pet

tracker if you want to do the bet which

you can track over here on your bet

tracker bets tab so the key takeaway is

if my betting bankroll was less then

each time i would be needing to bet less

to minimize the risk of a significant

damage to my bankroll and so because i'm

betting less i would expect to make less

in the long run now let's say we deploy

our 2k bankroll each day this time on

positive ev opportunities which has an

edge of generally let's say seven

percent then our expected profit is two

thousand times seven

and that gives us a expected return um

not guaranteed this time of one hundred

and forty dollars per day this is a lot

better now and as we make more money say

we make 500 in our first week then we

can update our bankroll to 2500 and this

will allow us to slowly size up our bets

more and more as we make more and more

one thousand dollars two thousand

dollars is just the amount you will need

to get your expected potential profits

up to the amount where you can justify

spending the roughly one hour or so each

day finding and placing these bets

another reason i recommend two thousand

dollars is that to arbitrage

successfully or even find positive ev

opportunities which might not always

appear on the same bookie you will need

to have multiple bookie accounts open

and have funds across all of them so you

can jump on an opportunity when it

arises which means you can't just have a

few hundred dollars sitting in one

bookie and that's it very commonly

bookies might attempt new customers or

even existing customers with deposit

match offers like this one here from

ladbrokes so if you only have 50 you're

not going to be able to capture the

offer in its entirety and you'll be

missing out on an extra 50 of free money

odds jam has a detailed list of all the

bookies offering these special deposit

matches in the united states so you can

just make some free money right away

just by depositing once again you can

check out odds jam in the link in the

description below or in the card that

should appear somewhere here and you can

get 25 off your first month by entering

in shane 25 in check out if you enjoyed

this video then make sure to give it a

big like down below and subscribe to

this channel to not miss out on my other

sports betting content and money making

tips that i have lined up for you guys

as always take care and i'll see you

guys in the next video