How The Russia-Ukraine War Will End
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, highlighting Russia's invasion and the West's response. It details the initial Western support for Ukraine, including military aid and economic assistance, but notes a decline in enthusiasm and consistent support after October 7th, 2023. The script outlines Ukraine's military challenges, including personnel shortages and infrastructure damage, and suggests that the West may be considering a negotiated settlement, potentially leading to territorial concessions to Russia.
Takeaways
- 🇺🇦 The war in Ukraine has persisted for nearly two years, with the northeast region being heavily targeted by Russian forces.
- 🔥 Despite initial predictions of a quick Russian victory, Ukraine has managed to resist and push back Russian forces in many areas.
- 🔄 The conflict has deep historical roots, dating back to the early 1990s and the expansion of NATO, which has been a point of contention.
- 🌐 The West, led by the US, has provided significant military and financial aid to Ukraine, but this support has been inconsistent and sometimes delayed.
- 📉 Western support for Ukraine began to wane after October 7th, 2023, with aid becoming less consistent and raising doubts about Ukraine's chances of total victory.
- 🚨 Ukraine has faced significant military setbacks, including shortages of personnel and ammunition, and has struggled to counter Russian advances.
- 💥 The war has taken a heavy toll on Ukraine's infrastructure, with energy facilities being targeted, leading to widespread power outages.
- 📉 The Ukrainian economy has been severely impacted by the war, further complicating its ability to sustain the conflict.
- 🤝 There have been discussions about potential French military involvement in Ukraine, but it's unclear how this would affect NATO's response.
- 🏳️🌈 The situation suggests that Ukraine may have to negotiate a settlement that concedes some territory to Russia, indicating a decline in Western influence.
Q & A
What was the initial Western prediction regarding the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022?
-The initial Western prediction was that Ukraine would fall within just a few weeks due to Russia's overwhelming numbers and superior firepower.
What was the surprising outcome for Ukraine after the initial invasion by Russia in 2022?
-Contrary to initial predictions, Ukraine not only survived the initial onslaught but also pushed most Russian forces back to their own borders, except in the Donbas region.
What was the role of NATO in the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine?
-NATO played a significant role by admitting nations from Central and Eastern Europe, increasing its presence in Eastern Europe, and providing military and financial aid to Ukraine.
Why did the US increase its intelligence sharing and consultations with allies in late 2021?
-The US increased its intelligence sharing and consultations with allies due to reports of significant Russian military buildups near Ukraine's border, which were seen as potential signs of an invasion.
What was the total figure of congressionally approved aid for Ukraine since February 2022 mentioned in the script?
-The total figure of congressionally approved aid for Ukraine since February 2022 is around 175 billion.
What has been the impact of Western support on Ukraine's ability to resist the Russian invasion?
-Western support, while substantial, has been inconsistent, with key military aid arriving late or not at all, leading to Ukrainian military setbacks and a struggle to counter Russian advances effectively.
What challenges has Ukraine faced in terms of personnel and military resources?
-Ukraine has faced severe shortages of personnel and military resources, including ammunition and equipment, which has been exacerbated by the need for extensive Western military assistance to train new recruits.
How has Russia's targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure impacted the country's war effort?
-Russia's targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has led to widespread power outages, straining Ukraine's military logistics and overall war effort, as well as disrupting civilian life.
What are the potential scenarios for French troop deployment in Ukraine mentioned in the script?
-The potential scenarios include defending strategic locations like Odessa and establishing safe zones along Ukraine's border with Belarus to deter further Russian advances.
Why might the deployment of French troops in Ukraine not automatically trigger NATO's Article 5?
-The deployment of French troops in Ukraine without NATO's collective decision would not automatically trigger Article 5 because it requires a consensus among NATO members, and given the divided political stances, achieving such consensus is unlikely.
What does the script suggest about the future of the conflict in Ukraine and Western support?
-The script suggests that Ukraine's prospects in the conflict are not looking good, and it appears that the West might be willing to negotiate a settlement that involves ceding territory to Russia, indicating a decline in Western hegemonic power and inconsistent support.
Outlines
🇺🇦 War in Ukraine: The Onslaught and Western Response
The paragraph discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, highlighting the initial invasion by Russia on February 24, 2022, and the strategic targets such as Kiev and power plants. It mentions the surprise resilience of Ukraine against the invasion, pushing back Russian forces except in Donbas. The paragraph also covers the support from the West, particularly the US, in terms of military aid and intelligence sharing. It introduces the sponsor 'Aura' for data privacy and mentions the historical context of NATO's eastward expansion, which is cited by Russia as a reason for the conflict.
🔍 Skepticism and Western Military Aid
This section details the skepticism towards Russia's military buildup near Ukraine's border and the US's track record of questionable intelligence. It discusses the US's military escalation in Eastern Europe and the substantial military aid provided to Ukraine, including anti-aircraft systems, ammunition, and various weaponry. The paragraph also touches on the economic assistance from Western governments and institutions like the World Bank. However, it points out the fading enthusiasm and delays in aid from the West, raising doubts about Ukraine's chances for total victory.
🚨 Ukraine's Military Struggles and Draft Law
The paragraph focuses on Ukraine's military challenges, including territorial losses and shortages in personnel and ammunition. It describes the intense battles in the Donetsk region and the impact of Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The paragraph also discusses the new draft law passed in April 2024, which aims to increase the pool of military service-eligible men, extend service terms, and increase compensation for volunteers. This has been met with public opposition due to concerns over indefinite service and psychological impacts.
🏰 French Troop Deployment and Western Hegemony's Decline
This section explores potential scenarios for the deployment of French troops to Ukraine, including defensive strategies and the establishment of safe zones. It addresses the question of whether an attack on French troops would trigger NATO's Article 5 and explains why it would not automatically do so. The paragraph concludes by reflecting on the decline of Western influence, the inconsistency of Western support for Ukraine, and the likelihood of negotiated territorial concessions to Russia.
🌐 The Waning Western Support and Economic Toll
The final paragraph discusses the diminishing support from the West, particularly after October 7th, 2023, and the economic and infrastructure challenges faced by Ukraine. It highlights the crumbling Ukrainian defenses, the impact on civilian life due to power outages, and the West's empty promises of support. The paragraph ends with a call to support the channel through Patreon, emphasizing the need for continued backing despite the bleak outlook.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Tactical Drills
💡Full-Scale Offensive
💡Missile Salvos
💡Separatist Groups
💡Overwhelming Numbers and Firepower
💡NATO Expansion
💡Sanctions
💡Ammunition Shortages
💡Energy Infrastructure
💡Conscription
💡Article 5
Highlights
After nearly 2 years of war, the northeast of Ukraine is heavily targeted by Russian forces.
Vladimir Putin orders tactical drills as the conflict escalates to dangerous new levels.
Russia invades Ukraine on February 24th, 2022, with a full-scale offensive.
Ukraine surprisingly pushes back Russian forces, contrary to initial predictions of a quick defeat.
Ukraine's military successes include sinking major Russian naval ships and hitting targets inside Russia.
Despite initial success, Ukraine faces ongoing military defeats and shortages of supplies.
The United States and other Western nations provide significant military and financial aid to Ukraine.
Western support for Ukraine begins to falter after October 7th, 2023, with delays and reversals in aid pledges.
The European Union falls short on delivering promised shells, reflecting a lack of consistent aid.
Ukraine faces severe personnel shortages and struggles to maintain its defenses against Russian advances.
Russian missile and drone strikes target Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages.
Ukraine passes a new draft law in April 2024 to increase military conscription and address personnel shortages.
The West's support for Ukraine is inconsistent, with key military aid arriving late or not at all.
Ukraine's chances of overcoming Russia's advances appear slim due to faltering Western support and military setbacks.
The decline of Western hegemonic power is marked by the potential loss in the Ukraine conflict.
The West may have to negotiate a settlement that concedes territory to Russia, indicating a shift from initial promises of total victory.
Transcripts
[Music]
after nearly 2 years of war in Ukraine
the northeast of Ukraine is being
pounded by Russian missiles and bombs
dangerous new levels as Vladimir Putin
orders Russian troops to begin tactical
new
[Music]
drills February 24th 2022 Russia invades
Ukraine by launching a full-scale
offensive strategically important areas
such as keev power plants and other
major infrastructure are attacked with
missile salvos infantry pours in from
the north east and south including
amphibious Landings in the critical port
cities of Odessa and maripo Russia's
overwhelming numbers and Superior
Firepower LED most observers to predict
that Ukraine would fall within just a
few weeks
however much to everyone's surprise
Ukraine not only survived the initial
Onslaught they pushed most Russian
forces back to their own borders except
in the donbas where the two strongest
Russian Allied separatist groups operate
despite this initial success and notable
instances of Ukraine achieving gains
thought impossible such as sinking
several major Russian naval ships and
hitting targets inside Russia Ukraine
has been on the back foot suffering
military defeats shortages of critical
supplies and Munitions political
instability and the increasingly falter
ing United States is Ukraine on the
verge of defeat but before we answer
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first some history and clarification
this war didn't start in February of
2022 it began in the early 1990s during
negotiations over the reunification of
Germany when US Secretary of State James
Baker and German Chancellor Helmont Cole
promised Soviet president M gorbachov
that NATO would not expand eastwards
these discussions were revealed through
Declassified documents and part of a
broader diplomatic effort to integrate a
unified Germany into NATO without
exacerbating reasonable Soviet security
concerns however these assurances were
never codified by formal agreements of
any kind which allowed the US to ignore
their promise entirely in the late 1990s
and early 2000s NATO began to admit
nations from Central and Eastern Europe
and now encompasses nearly all of the
former Eastern block except bellus
Ukraine and Georgia though not for lack
of trying fast forward to 2014 in
Ukraine after the orange Revolution the
donbas region in eastern Ukraine
characterized by a significant Russian
speaking population and Industrial base
perceived the outing of Russia friendly
president Victor yanukovich as a direct
threat to its economic and cultural
interests the subsequent Russian
annexation of Crimea in March 2014
following a controversial referendum
further raised tensions and set the
stage for a violent conflict local
actors in Donas including former members
of the security forces aligned with
Russian interest to oppose the new
Ukrainian government Russia conducted
overt and covert operations aimed at
destabilizing Ukraine to prevent it
joining NATO and their support for the
separatist in donbas included military
equipment and strategic guidance
Ukraine's response to the crisis only
exacerbated the issue and the state's
weakness evident in its inability to
integrate diverse Regional interests
particularly those of the East
significantly worsened the
conflict Ukraine began receiving
warnings from the US about a Russian
invasion in November of 2021 reports
emerged of significant Russian military
buildups near Ukraine's border which led
the US to significantly increase its
intelligent sharing and consultations
with allies
the NATO Secretary General asked Russia
to clarify its military activities near
Ukraine's border pointing to an abnormal
concentration of approximately 90,000
troops a number that Rose to roughly
100,000 by early February in late
January the US cautioned bis against
supporting any Russian military
initiatives since Bellis was hosting a
separate large contingent of 127,000
Russian troops for so-called military
exercises despite these forboding signs
of Al looming Invasion there remained
understandable skepticism based on
previous instances where similar Russian
military buildup did not lead to open
conflict to add to the confusion the US
track record of lying about intelligence
to further a policy agenda isn't great
to put it lightly concurrent with all
this the US escalated its own military
presence in Eastern Europe by deploying
an additional 1,000 troops and several
fighter jets to enhance its air defenses
in Romania and Poland aside from
bolstering the defenses of neighboring
NATO allies the US of course stepped in
to supply Ukraine with the arms it
needed to resist the invasion once it
began we can't give you an exhaustive
list of everything the US has pledged or
sent to Ukraine but here's just a sample
of what was included in the $800 million
package from March 2022 800 Stinger
anti-aircraft systems 2,000 Javelin and
1,000 light anti-armor weapons over 20
million rounds of small arms ammunition
drones grenade launchers rifles pistols
machine guns and shotguns body armor and
helmets and Myriad other pieces of
equipment another Security package worth
250 million included high impact
military equipment such as air defense
systems artillery and anti-tank weapons
but these packages worth over a billion
dollars combined are just a drop in the
bucket direct Aid aimed at assisting
Ukraine tops $17 billion and the total
figure of congressionally approved Aid
since February 2022 is around 175
billion non-military financial support
has also been crucial with Western
governments and international
institutions like the World Bank
providing significant economic
assistance for example the World Bank
committee $1 13 billion to stabilize
Ukraine's economy and support
reconstruction efforts however as with
all such help it comes with the catch of
Western neoliberal reforms and
anti-corruption measures supposedly
meant to address long-term economic
challenges initial us support for
Ukraine against Russian aggression
emphasized quote the preservation of
global democracy and a rules-based
international order one major reason for
the enthusiasm early in the war was
Ukraine's significant progress in
resisting Russian advances using Western
military Aid suggesting this was a
viable strategy for Western
Powers unfortunately for Ukraine this
overwhelming support would begin to fade
on October 7th 2023 for some reason
anyway since whatever happened on that
date Western governments have displayed
significant apprehension with numerous
instances of delays and even reversals
of Aid pledges reflecting serious
uncertainty about Ukraine's prospects
for total Victory a completely unified
Ukraine Western Nations have struggled
to maintain consistent aid for example
the European Union promised to deliver 1
million shells by March 2024 and fell
short only delivering 30% of that the
Biden regime went from indefinite
support to suggesting that the US will
provide assistance as long as we can and
in a report titled scenarios on the
Russian war in Ukraine for 2024 and 2025
they outline scenarios where Western
fatigue leads to a negotiated settlement
with Western Partners pushing Ukraine
towards a compromis due to a lack of
visible military breakthrough Slovakia
while advocating for Ukraine's EU
membership and recently witnessing an
attempted assassination of their prime
minister has shown hesitance in fully
supporting sanctions against Russia due
to its dependence on Russian energy
France has sent weapons to Ukraine but
has been non-committal about an energy
embargo and has kept the details of its
military aid opaque Germany heavily
reliant on Russian gas reversed its ban
on weapons transfers but continues to
avoid an eu-wide oil and gas embargo in
a bid to safeguard future Aid Western
allies are considering moving the us-led
Ukraine defense contact group under NATO
control to ensure a steady flow of arms
irrespective of political changes within
individual Nations to add to this
uncertainty a severe lack of timely and
adequate shipments of Weaponry have
significantly impacted Ukraine's ability
to counter Russian advances effectively
crucial systems like F-16 fighter jets
that were needed in 20123 will only
become operational in 2024 by which time
Ukrainian officials say Russia will have
adapted its strategies to counter them
Western failures such as the shortage of
ammunition and delayed support have
directly contributed to Ukrainian
military setbacks Ukrainian military
officials estimate that an additional
quar million shells per month are needed
just to keep Pace with Russian
forces so overall Ukraine's prospects
aren't looking good and the West is at
risk of losing yet another War here are
just a few of the problems they face the
hotk region has been a recent focal
point of Russian advances despite Fierce
resistance Ukrainian forces have
struggled to hold their positions
notable Russian advances have occurred
near crina and borova where Ukraine was
unable to Halt the momentum of the
Russian 20th combined arms Army and
other units intense bombardments
including a significant increase in
Glide bomb strikes further crippled
Ukrainian defenses in harak oblast the
battle for bakut presents one of the
most intense and costly for Ukrainian
forces elements of the seventh
reconnaissance and assault Brigade and
the 331st vdv regiment have been
particularly active in attempting to
advance towards kinva Northeast of bakut
the sustained Russian assaults have led
to incremental territorial gains for
Russia in the region Ukraine has also
faced severe shortages of Personnel in
the southern region Russian forces have
advanced in doneto Blast capturing key
positions West and Northwest of bakut
including banka and parts of chuar a
major defensive stronghold due to its
elevation elements of the Russian 998th
Airborne Division supported by the 11th
separate vdv Brigade and 150th motorized
rifle division have been particularly
aggressive in their attacks near Ivanka
and east of chuar the Ukrainian military
has also faced severe shortages of
personnel efforts to staff new units
have been hampered by the need for
extensive Western military assistance to
train new recruits meanwhile there's
strong pressure from Russian advances
which necessitate continuous
replenishment of Manpower and material
something Ukraine just cannot balance at
the moment to address this Ukraine
passed a new draft law on April 11th
2024 that aims to address the urgent
need for more soldiers the new law
mandates that all eligible men aged 18
to 60 register for military service it
removes defined service terms that is
limiting service to a defined time
period And it increases compensation for
volunteers the law also includes
Provisions allowing individuals with
certain criminal convictions to serve
and mandates local government and police
support in the conscription process
these changes have sparked significant
public opposition due to concerns over
indefinite duration of service human
rights and the psychological iCal impact
on conscripts and their families Russian
missile and drone strikes have targeted
Ukraine's energy infrastructure
significantly disrupting the country's
thermal power plants and leading to
widespread power outages Russian forces
have damaged or disrupted roughly 80% of
electricity generation at these plants
exploiting the degraded Ukrainian air
defense umbrella to collapse the
country's energy grid this has further
strained Ukraine's military logistics
and overall war effort as the energy
Grid's degradation has compounded
operational difficulties and disrupted
civilian life all in all Ukraine's
prospects don't look good it appears the
West is willing to sell it for parts of
peace and allow Russia to keep the land
they took during their military
operation so
[Music]
appeasement French president Emanuel
macron has indicated the possibility of
deploying French troops to Ukraine this
potential deployment includes several
scenarios aimed at bolstering Ukrainian
defenses and deterring further Russian
advances one scenario involves defending
strategic locations like Odessa in the
event of significant Russian advances a
strong French contingent could be
deployed to secure the Strategic Port
City ensuring Ukraine's access to the
Sea another scenario considers
establishing safe zones along Ukraine's
border with Bellis securing critical
areas and freeing Ukrainian troops for
combat operations in the East thus
preventing new Russian offensives one
question we should address is if Russian
troops were to kill French troops in the
Ukrainian theater of war would that
automatically trigger Article 5
thankfully no and the key word here is
automatically first French troops
deployed in Ukraine without NATO's
collective decision would not
automatically trigger Article 5 France
would need to convince other NATO
members that the attack constituted an
attack on NATO itself second since
Article 5 requires a consensus among
NATO members each member would need to
agree that the circumstances warrant a
collective response and given the
divided political stances within NATO
achieving such consensus is unlikely
especially for a deployment not
officially sanctioned by NATO and third
historically NATO has been cautious
about direct military involvement in
non-member countries to avoid escalation
with Russia so even if French troops
were attacked NATO might respond with
non-military measures such as more
sanctions rather than direct military
retaliation Ukraine's plate and likely
eventual loss in this war marks another
chapter in the decline of Western
hegemonic power despite some surprising
victories early in the conflict
Ukraine's chances of overcoming Russia's
relent advances now appear slim the
West's support while substantial has
faltered key military aid arrives late
or not at all and vital support systems
are either inadequate or delayed leaving
Ukraine to fend off a superior force
with inferior dwindling resources while
NATO's Eastward expansion despite
assurances to the contrary sowed the
seeds of this conflict we want to be
clear that this does not justify
Russia's Invasion it's simply the
explanation given by Russia and it's our
job to report that regardless the
initial shock of Russia's invasion was
met with global condemnation and a rush
of military aid to Ukraine but as the
conflict dragged on and successes became
fewer and farther between enthusiasm
began to wne this shift became starkly
evident after October 7th 2023 when the
West's Focus suddenly diverted for no
conceivable reason causing Aid and
support to Ukraine to become
inconsistent meanwhile Ukrainian Ground
Forces faced severe shortages of
Manpower and ammunition compounded by
Relentless Russian bombardments
targeting critical infrastructure cities
like har and regions in donet oblast
have seen Fierce battles with Ukrainian
defenses crumbling under sustained
Russian pressure the war has also taken
a toll on Ukraine's economy and civilian
infrastructure leading to widespread
power outages and further complicating
their defense efforts the promises of
unyielding support from the West the US
in particular have proven empty as
always with key allies showing
reluctance to fully commit to Mere
sanctions it's looking increasingly
likely that Ukraine and the West will
have to negotiate a set M that seeds
territory to Russia only time will tell
the specifics but what is now abundantly
clear is that the United States Promises
of total Victory will not come to
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