Trump rocked with CRUSHING electoral news
Summary
TLDRIn this discussion, political analyst Larry Sabato reflects on the impact of debates on the polarized American electorate. He suggests that while Kamala Harris may not see a significant polling bounce, the debate's effects will be remembered by voters. Sabato also addresses the tight race in key states, the challenges of interpreting polling data, and the potential for shifts in traditionally red states like Texas and Florida. He emphasizes the importance of not becoming complacent and the influence of party identification on voter behavior.
Takeaways
- 📊 The polarization in American politics makes it difficult for any candidate to gain significant support from debates, with potential bounces being minimal.
- 🗳️ Despite Kamala Harris's strong debate performance, the impact on polling numbers is expected to be modest, typically around one or two points.
- 📉 The importance of the debate's impact is highlighted by the fact that voting is already happening and impressions from the debate will linger for many voters.
- 🔍 Larry Sabato emphasizes that polling averages are more reliable than individual polls, but still advises caution due to potential inaccuracies.
- 🚩 The transcript discusses the tight margins in key battleground states, with Harris leading in some by very slim margins, illustrating the close race.
- 📈 Sabato suggests that being slightly ahead in polls can be more beneficial than a large lead, as it prevents overconfidence and rallies supporters.
- 🌎 The discussion points to potential shifts in traditionally red states like Texas and Florida, with the possibility of them becoming more competitive.
- 📉 The script mentions the potential for Democrats to gain in states like Georgia and North Carolina, where traditionally red regions are becoming more purple.
- 📊 Sabato warns against complacency, advising campaigns to act as if they are behind even if polls show a lead.
- 🔎 The conversation also touches on the importance of party identification (DNR) in voting behavior, noting its increasing influence on elections.
Q & A
What is the potential impact of the debate on the election polls according to Larry Sabato?
-Larry Sabato suggests that Kamala Harris, despite being the clear winner of the debate, might only gain a point or two in the polls due to the polarized electorate. He mentions that people already know where they stand, and the debate might not significantly change their opinions.
How does Larry Sabato view the current state of polarization in the United States?
-Larry Sabato believes that the United States is experiencing one of the most polarized and inelastic electorates in modern history, with Donald Trump having a significant role in deepening this polarization.
What does Larry Sabato think about the importance of the debate in relation to the ongoing voting?
-Sabato emphasizes that the debate is important because voting is already happening, and the debate could influence the votes of millions who will remember something they liked or disliked about the candidates.
According to the script, which states show a lead for Kamala Harris in the polls?
-The script mentions that Kamala Harris has taken the lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina according to the four major polling averages.
What is Larry Sabato's opinion on the accuracy of polls?
-Larry Sabato expresses skepticism about the accuracy of polls, suggesting that they can be inaccurate and that one should not put too much stock in them, even when they show close margins.
What advice does Larry Sabato give regarding the interpretation of polling margins?
-Sabato advises that if one wants to estimate the true margin of error in polls, they should double the listed margin of error due to uncalculated sources of error.
What does Larry Sabato think about the possibility of Florida becoming competitive for Democrats?
-Sabato does not rule out the possibility of Florida becoming competitive for Democrats, noting that states evolve over time and can change sides, but he does not see it as a high probability at this moment.
How does Larry Sabato view the potential for Democratic gains in states like Texas, Florida, and Missouri?
-Sabato believes it's entirely possible for Democrats to make gains in these states, but he does not consider it a probability. He suggests that such shifts can happen with big events and that one should not underestimate the potential for surprises in elections.
What is Larry Sabato's perspective on the importance of party identification in voters' decisions?
-Sabato notes the strong influence of party identification (DNR) on voters' decisions, suggesting that it can lead to cognitive dissonance where voters may support candidates who hold positions contrary to their own beliefs.
How does Larry Sabato evaluate the chances of Jon Tester retaining his Senate seat in Montana?
-Sabato views Tester's chances as challenging, given the shift in Montana's political landscape towards more rigid Republicanism, and Tester has never faced a race like the current one.
What is Larry Sabato's prediction on when Texas might become a competitive state for both parties?
-Sabato does not predict a complete 'flip' to Democratic control in Texas but suggests it is turning 'purple', meaning it will take time for the state to become competitive for both parties in various elections.
Outlines
📊 Impact of Debates on Polling and Electorates
Political analyst Larry Sabado discusses the limited impact of debates on polling numbers due to the highly polarized electorate. He suggests that despite Kamala Harris's strong debate performance, the increase in her support might only be marginal, possibly one or two points. Sabado emphasizes that people's political stances are already set, and the debate's influence will be more about reinforcing existing opinions rather than changing them. He also highlights that the debate's effects will build on the foundation laid during the Democratic convention and that there are over 50 days left in the campaign for these effects to play out.
🔍 Close Race and Polling Inaccuracies
The conversation continues with a focus on the tight race between the candidates and the inaccuracies inherent in polling. Sabado points out that even a one or two-point lead in the polls could significantly impact the election outcome, but he cautions against over-reliance on polls due to their potential inaccuracy. He mentions historical examples, such as the 2000 and 2016 elections, to illustrate the unpredictability of polls. Sabado also discusses the importance of not becoming complacent, even when ahead in the polls, and the potential for shifts in traditionally red states like Florida.
🗳️ The Role of Party ID and Close Elections
The discussion explores the strong influence of party identification on voters and the potential for close elections in states like Florida. Sabado suggests that while it's unlikely for a state to completely change its political leaning, significant events can lead to fundamental shifts. He also touches on the impact of having a referendum on the ballot in Florida and how it might affect voter turnout and the election outcomes. The conversation also includes the challenges faced by Democratic candidates in offensive races and the importance of not taking any race for granted.
🌐 Texas's Political Shift and Future Predictions
In the final paragraph, the focus is on the changing political landscape in Texas and the potential for it to become a competitive state in future elections. Sabado discusses the historical context of one-party rule and the issues that can arise, such as corruption. He also addresses the possibility of Texas turning 'purple' rather than 'blue' and the implications this has for future elections. The conversation concludes with Sabado's thoughts on the unpredictability of election outcomes and the importance of continued vigilance and effort from political candidates and their supporters.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Polarization
💡Electorate
💡Debate
💡Bounce
💡Margin of Error
💡Lead
💡Momentum
💡Overconfidence
💡Realignment
💡Offensive Races
💡Defensive Race
Highlights
Impact of the debate on polling is limited due to the polarized electorate.
Kamala Harris might gain only a point or two in the polls despite debate win.
People's political positions are already set, making significant poll shifts unlikely.
Debate performance builds on the foundation laid at the Democratic convention.
Voting is already happening and will accelerate with each week.
Millions will remember debate moments, influencing their vote.
Kamala Harris has taken the lead in key battleground states according to major polling averages.
Leads in states like Nevada and North Carolina are very slim.
Polling inaccuracies are significant, and one should not rely too heavily on them.
Margin of error in polls should be doubled for a more accurate estimate.
Morning Consult poll shows significant leads for Kamala Harris in several states.
Momentum for the Harris campaign could continue, but complacency is a danger.
Florida's political landscape may be shifting, with the state becoming more competitive.
Abortion referendum on the ballot in Florida could impact election outcomes.
Strong party ID influences voting behavior, even when it conflicts with personal beliefs.
Montana's Senate race is a defensive race for Democrats, with Tester currently behind.
Texas is trending less red, but a complete flip to blue is not expected.
Long-term one-party rule can lead to corruption, as seen in Texas.
Ted Cruz has many enemies, which could affect the Texas Senate race.
Larry Sabato invites people to follow his work at Sabato's Crystal Ball for more insights.
Transcripts
now we've got political analyst the
founder and director of the center for
politics at the University of Virginia
and one of my go-to sources for all
things polling and ratings Larry sabado
thank you so much for taking the time
happy to be with you Brian and
congratulations on all that you do I
don't know how you get through so many
things every week well thank you do it
you're young and energetic that's it
well trying to cling on to what youth I
have uh politics makes it tough okay so
so let's start here um so as not to bury
the lead what kind of an impact do you
think that the debate is going to have
as far as polling is concerned knowing
full well that we have one of the most
polarized and inelastic electorates in
modern American history the polarization
makes it almost impossible for kamla
Harris who was the clear overwhelming
winner of the debate to gain very much
you know a point or two maybe three I'd
kind of say one or two which has been
the norm uh recently even for
conventions you get either zero bounce
or maybe one or two points and that's
because people already know where they
stand and particularly because of Donald
Trump uh people have been polarized for
a long time but he has polarized people
Beyond any realization I don't think we
ever knew we would be quite this
polarized but uh what it means is and
and this is really important because I
have seen so much commentary since the
debate saying well she's not going to
gain very much from it and a uh a debate
in early September isn't going to have
much impact on the on the vote no the
vote is already happening it's going to
accelerate with each additional week and
while people forget things quickly they
don't forget things that quickly there
will be a very sizable portion Millions
who will remember something from the
debate that they either liked or
disliked in most cases liked that KLA
Harris did and disliked that Donald
Trump did so this Builds on the
foundation that she created at the
Democrat
convention uh and that Foundation filled
in a lot of blanks there are plenty more
to go but there also more than 50 days
of the campaign to go now You' mentioned
a bounce of maybe one or two or even
three points if you look at the four
major polling averages KLA Harris has
now taken the lead in all of them in
Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania Nevada
and North Carolina but the leads that
she's enjoying especially in States like
Nevada and North Carolina in 538 for
example are .1% 2% in split ticket it's
4 and .5% for silver bulletin it's. 2
and .1% so so first of all wouldn't a a
a bounce of an entire point of an entire
two points have a a massive impact on
the outcome of this race well it could
and should except that polling is so
inaccurate that I wouldn't put too much
stock even in these averages the
averages are better than most individual
polls and I never trust one poll even
the New York Times Sienna College poll
believe believe it or not that is not
the one poll that should be looked at
necessarily but when you've got a margin
this close all we have to do is remember
both the 2000 election the gore Bush
election and of course 2016 when Hillary
Clinton won by three million votes and
two full percentage points and still
didn't wi and Trump still got over 300
electoral votes so people have a lot of
work to do they shouldn't fool
themselves just because uh the elites
including us uh say that the Comm Harris
did extremely well at the convention and
extremely well at the debate that
doesn't guarantee anything they have to
work hard now how much weight are you
putting on on these polls in terms of
impacting your ratings at Crystal
Ball we put less emphasis on the of
polls and we used to look polls can do
one of three things
they can either tell you that candidate
a is way ahead and is going to win or
that candidate B is ahead by a solid
margin and it's very likely to win or
that it's too close for a poll to tell
right and this may this you know Brian
that a lot of your viewers will not know
uh and it's shocking the good research
on polling suggests that if you want to
really estimate the margin of error you
should double the listed margin of error
because there are all kinds kind of
sources of error that cannot be
calculated and included in that uh
traditional margin of error that
accompanies every poll so when you you
think about a poll that has a threo
margin of error well that's plus or
minus three and so it's really plus or
minus six you've got if you got a poll
with a candidate up by a fraction of 1%
you know not only don't take it to the
bank I wouldn't take it outside yeah
yeah well I do want to point your
attention to one more slate that was
just released that I think has turned a
lot of heads and that is the morning
consult polling um which is a high-rated
poster and and they're showing KLA
Harris with leads in Wisconsin
Pennsylvania Michigan tide in Georgia
Nevada and North Carolina so this is
part of a broader Trend that we're
seeing in which the Harris campaign is
gaining momentum do you think that these
numbers remain or do you think that the
the momentum you know continues and and
and Donald Trump continues to relinquish
this lead that he previously
enjoyed well if
tens of millions of Voters are rational
then I would say yes I don't understand
how anyone could watch that debate and
think that Donald Trump is okay or that
he still has uh all of his brain
functions at the age of 78 headed toward
82 and he would be older than Joe Biden
is now at the end of uh of that term how
can anyone do that now let's get
realistic he's got tens of millions of
votes in his his pocket and he's going
to get within you know two or three
percentage points of winning even if he
doesn't win so uh you know I it's hard
for me to say except I should add this
to what I said earlier it's always
better to be a little ahead than a
little behind right because it does
enthuse your supporters in fact I think
being a little ahead is actually better
than being ahead by quite a lot that's
when overconfidence sets in that's when
people say well they don't need my extra
$50 that's when you say I want to go to
a movie tonight instead of going door
too when it's this close they'll put in
the extra effort they'll contribute the
extra money I think the the danger here
is any sense of complacency and that's
that's you know I always make that
caveat when I talk about polling even if
we are ahead you act like you're Five
Points behind um you'll also notice in
the morning console poll that Donald
Trump is down two in Florida now Florida
has been trending red since 2000 do you
think that this might just be an out or
the polls that we're seeing now showing
them close are an outlier or might we
actually be seeing some type of
realignment that suggests that Florida
could be in play for Democrats well I'm
not going to rule that out because one
thing I know from my historical studies
over many many decades is that if you go
back to post Civil War or even to the
turn of the 19th to the 20th century
almost every state has changed sides at
least once this happens regularly you
know a state uh just like a human being
or a family evolves over time uh
everything isn't stationary and so it's
it's possible and Florida is a good
example of a state that has a strong
party base for both sides that would
suggest that fundamental shifts can
happen with big events so I don't rule
it out I don't think it's the
probability but it also isn't true that
the probability here is 80 or 90% I'd
say you know 55 45 something like that
and uh over time Florida will become
more competitive if only because they
get tired of one party winning
everything and then the corruption sets
in yeah well an Emerson poll I believe
it was had Debbie muker Cel Powell tied
with Rick Scott what do you think the
prospect of her unseating him is or or
or Democrats winning in any of these
offensive races this cycle which include
Texas Florida and Missouri oh I think
it's entirely possible I wouldn't call
it a probability but don't we normally
have at least one real shocker uh in the
Senate not every single election but
most of them there are things that can't
be predicted and the polling averages
just simply can't reveal the truth in
advance about all these races so sure
it's it's a possibility I don't know
whether these polls are outliers or not
you only know once you see a long series
of polls or you get the actual election
result but look Rick Scott is is not
exactly
uh you know the Jolly Green Giant
Florida politics he won by a sliver when
he first was elected governor 2010 he
won by another sliver when was reelected
in 2014 in 2018 he got that senate seat
by 10,000 votes against a friend who is
I think was an excellent Senator and is
a wonderful NASA administrator Bill
Nelson so uh Laura can have very close
elections I don't know if you were
around in 2000 but I was down there
watching the 500 37 votes that elected a
president of the United States well
right now Florida is engaged in like
door-to-door um voter contact over PE o
over the prospect of keeping the
abortion ballot on on the November
ballot the the abortion referendum on
the November ballot they're doing the
same thing or try they tried to do the
same thing in Missouri the Missouri
Supreme Court weighed in and said that
they that that against the wishes of the
Secretary of State Ashcraft that
question would remain on the ballot
there is it true that having this
referendum on the ballot of an otherwise
safely read State could have such an
impact that it does put at risk the the
Republicans keeping control of the seats
there yes it could that's the only fair
answer uh the problem is of course it's
lower on the ballot and the Florida's
now revised its ballots so you don't
have butterfly ballots that can do
strange things but it's further down so
you already will have voted for
president president for Senator for
House member uh and I believe that's
when the referenda are listed the uh the
second thing is you got a lot of
pro-choice Republicans uh who may
satisfy themselves by voting for The
referendum or knowing they're going to
go into the polls and do it but still
vote Republican somehow giving Trump a
pass for effectively eliminating roie
way again I don't understand how people
can think that way the the uh brain
process is is a little bit odd yeah it's
a it's a strong cognitive dissonance at
play where you reward the person who has
a position that is directly antithetical
to the position that you want you reward
them with with a promotion or another
job while also kind of doing apologia
for the actual positions that they have
yeah that's exactly what happens and
that tells you how strong party IDE is
today I often say the the two most
powerful influential letters of the
English language are
DNR and they're determining more and
more now to some degree it may be a good
thing it's always been a symbol to
people who don't know much but uh this
is
disturbing it's determining more
elections than it
should and I think that's such a good
point and it's why by the way former
lieutenant governor of Georgia Jeff
Duncan when he came onto the stage at
the DNC he didn't say that Republicans
should become Democrats because it's not
going to happen I mean to to to
um relinquish such a big part of your
identity is the likelihood of that
happening is so slim but he did say it
doesn't make you a Democrat to vote for
Democrats it makes you a patriot and so
he's appealing to another part of their
identity without forcing them to
relinquish something that is so closely
held as whether whether you see yourself
as a democrat or a republican no that's
absolutely true and Duncan and Brad
raffensberger and some of the other
people there uh have been pretty
courageous now they have positions that
you and I might disagree with vehemently
a lot of them probably but you know it
takes a special kind of courage to stand
up against your party and maybe end your
career as my appointee here at the
center for politics our our professor of
practi as Liz Cheney did it's not easy
to end your career to give up everything
you've worked for for years it isn't and
so you have to admire that even if you
disagree with them on every other issue
right uh we had spoken about the
offensive races Texas Florida Missouri
one defensive race for Democrats that's
worrisome is obviously Montana I believe
the only poll that we have is an ARP
poll showing tester down by six points
can you speak on Democratic prospects at
retaining that seat how do you feel um
about Democrats hanging on to Montana
montanans used to be so
independent uh and the independence
actually LED them to the Democrats more
than the Republicans I'm so old I
remember when the Democrats could
regularly controll the governorship in
both US Senate seats well that air is
gone and there are so many uh Rock
ribbed Republicans living in Montana now
some of them come here from other states
of escaping California I hear is a is a
big thing there uh that it's going to be
really tough for tester he's never had a
race like this maybe it's a miracle that
he's been in the senate for 18 years he
got three terms under difficult
conditions maybe he can do it for a
fourth but but the polls the surveys and
even the soundings outside polling are
not encouraging right
now we've seen Texas's margin at the
presidential level shrink for
Republicans virtually every year since
2000 um they used to enjoy around 60%
support now it's down to 52 do you think
based on these Trends first of all that
it's an inevitability that Texas flips
blue and if so when do you think that
that will happen well when you say flip
blue it suggests that you're saying
Texas is going to go back to being
heavily Democratic that's an
impossibility to me it's not turning
blue it's turning purple and it's going
to take a while for that process to work
its way through now when voting a purple
means that in some elections it's going
to vote Democratic whether it's for
president or Senator or or other
Statewide offices and look after a while
as I was saying earlier the corruption
sets in
and what's happening in Texas corruption
right corruption right we're seeing
we're seeing their attorney general get
uh get uh face impeachment and
prosecution we've seen we've seen uh the
the power grid fail numerous times over
and over because there's this is what
happens with with one party rule in a
state that does value corruption that's
that's exactly right so when is it going
to happen of course I don't know I I
always say to people who ask me it's
going to happen in 2050 because I know
for sure I'll be long dead and nobody
will remember I said it uh but it will
take a while now an upset is not
completely ruled out in the Texas Senate
race Ted Cruz has accumulated an amazing
number of enemies even on the
conservative side of things they just
don't like him very much and sooner or
later that hurts you although again
people can survive a long time based on
their their letter the letter that goes
next to their name letter where can
people uh see and hear more from
you oh well they could come to
Charlottesville uh don't come if you
have any affiliation with the neo-nazis
please we've already been through that
yeah yeah if if you have if you're
broadminded we would welcome you at any
time but the center for politics has a
political Outlet that's free this the
crystal ball uh you can just Google
sabados crystal ball or just crystal
ball it will pop up give us an email any
email be a junk email we never give give
out or sell the the email addresses and
twice a week sometimes three times a
week you'll get uh our latest newsletter
in which uh great analysts like Kyle
condic and Miles Coleman will put
together some interesting facets of the
elections you probably haven't thought
much about but which which will enrich
your cocktail party
chatter well thank you so much for the
work that you and everybody on your team
does and uh again for everybody watching
right now please make sure uh to give
Larry and his team of follow uh and
Larry thank you so much for taking the
time today and Brian thank you and
congratulations on all you do and keep
it up you've got a long time Horizon
we're depending on you thank you
[Music]
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