Bank Term Funding Program Blows Up In Final Minutes...
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve Bank's term funding program, which attracted arbitrage from banks seeking to profit from the borrowing rate spread. As the program's end approaches, questions arise about its legitimacy and the banks' reluctance to use the discount window due to stigma. The Fed's push for banks to utilize the discount window is met with resistance, and the recent increase in BTFP usage at the last minute raises concerns about the banking system's stance on the discount window and potential liquidity issues. The conversation highlights the challenges faced by banks in managing their liquidity and loan portfolios amidst economic uncertainty and the potential implications for the Federal Reserve's policies and the banking system's stability.
Takeaways
- 🏦 The Federal Reserve Bank's term funding program (BTFP) was a controversial emergency measure that attracted arbitrage from banks seeking to profit from the borrowing rate spread.
- 💰 Banks were borrowing from BTFP and leaving their reserves with the Fed to earn interest, raising questions about the legitimacy of their need for funding.
- 📉 Despite the Fed shutting down arbitrage opportunities, there was a sudden increase in BTFP usage just before its termination, indicating banks might still be in need of funds.
- 🚪 The Fed and bank regulators are pushing for banks to use the discount window as a primary source of funding, aiming to remove the stigma associated with it.
- 🔄 There's a concern that banks are avoiding the discount window due to its negative perception, despite the Fed's efforts to promote it as a viable option.
- 📈 The total balance in the Fed's primary credit or discount window is significantly lower than the increase seen in the BTFP, suggesting a preference for the latter.
- 🤔 The sudden increase in BTFP usage at the last minute raises questions about the banks' reluctance to use the discount window and potential underlying issues.
- 🏥 The banking system may still be in a precarious state, with banks continuing to need more funds rather than paying back existing loans.
- 💡 The Fed's insistence on banks using the discount window could be an attempt to address the stigma and ensure banks have access to funds in times of need.
- 🌪️ The next few months will be crucial in determining the outcome of the banking system's liquidity challenges and the effectiveness of the Fed's policies.
- 🌐 The economic backdrop adds to the uncertainty, with recent statistics suggesting a shaky economy and potential risks to the banking sector.
Q & A
What was the Federal Reserve Bank term funding program (BTFP) and why was it controversial?
-The BTFP was an emergency measure implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank to provide funding to banks. It was controversial because it attracted arbitrage from banks seeking to profit from the spread between the borrowing rate offered by the BTFP and the rates they could earn by leaving their reserves with the Fed. Additionally, there were concerns about how many banks were using the BTFP as a legitimate source of funding rather than as a means for arbitrage.
Why did the Federal Reserve prefer banks to use the discount window instead of the BTFP?
-The Federal Reserve preferred banks to use the discount window because it is a more traditional and transparent method of providing liquidity to banks. The use of the discount window was seen as a way to reduce the stigma associated with it and to encourage banks to use it as a regular source of funding in both good and bad times, thus eliminating the negative perception that the discount window was only for banks in severe distress.
What was the increase in the BTFP loans in the final week before the program was shut down?
-In the final week before the BTFP was shut down, there was an increase of $3.4 billion in additional loans. This increase occurred despite the Fed's efforts to discourage arbitrage by setting the lending rate to equal the borrowing rate, suggesting that banks were still seeking funding from the Fed rather than from other sources.
How did the total balance in the Fed's primary credit or discount window compare to the increase in the BTFP loans in the same period?
-The total balance in the Fed's primary credit or discount window was just $2.3 billion, which was smaller than the increase in the BTFP loans of $3.4 billion during the same period. This indicates that the demand for funding from the Fed was higher in the BTFP than in the traditional discount window, even as the BTFP was being phased out.
What challenges do banks face in repaying the one-year loans from the BTFP that are coming due?
-Banks face challenges in repaying the BTFP loans as they may not have sufficient funds or collateral to do so. The reluctance to use the discount window due to stigma or lack of eligible collateral could force banks to seek alternative sources of funding or to negotiate new terms with the Fed, potentially leading to a crisis of confidence if they are unable to meet their obligations.
What was the role of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) in providing advances to banks during the 2008 financial crisis?
-During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) provided advances to banks as a form of emergency funding. However, their role was not intended to be that of a lender of last resort, but rather to help banks put together mortgage securities and foster home ownership. The FHLB has since clarified that their advances are not meant for general liquidity needs and should not be used as such.
Why did the FHLB change its stance on providing advances for non-traditional purposes?
-The FHLB changed its stance because it recognized that its role in providing secured advances must be distinguished from the Federal Reserve's financing facilities, which are designed to provide emergency financing for troubled financial institutions facing immediate liquidity challenges. The FHLB does not have the capacity to serve as a lender of last resort for troubled members with significant borrowing needs over a short period of time.
What economic indicators suggest that the US economy may not be as robust as the mainstream narrative suggests?
-Recent economic indicators such as downward revisions to payroll reports, declining retail sales, and an increase in credit card delinquencies and foreclosures suggest that the US economy may be facing challenges. These indicators point to potential risks in consumer spending, the real estate market, and the banking sector's loan portfolios, contradicting the narrative of a robust and resilient economy.
How might the banks' reluctance to use the discount window and the increase in BTFP loans reflect on the overall health of the banking system?
-The banks' reluctance to use the discount window and the increase in BTFP loans suggest that the banking system may still be facing liquidity challenges and that there is a continued need for external funding. This could indicate that banks are not confident in the economic recovery and are cautious about extending new loans or repaying existing ones, which could signal underlying risks and vulnerabilities within the system.
What is the potential impact of the banks' funding challenges on the broader economy?
-The banks' funding challenges could lead to a tightening of credit conditions, reduced lending to consumers and businesses, and a slowdown in economic activity. If banks are unable to secure sufficient funding or repay their debts, this could result in financial instability and potentially lead to a broader economic downturn, especially if it coincides with other negative economic indicators.
What does the future hold for the banking system and the Fed's efforts to normalize the use of the discount window?
-The future for the banking system and the Fed's efforts to normalize the discount window use is uncertain. It will largely depend on how banks manage their liquidity needs and whether they can find alternative sources of funding. The Fed's success in encouraging banks to use the discount window without stigma will be a key factor in determining the stability of the financial system and the overall health of the economy.
Outlines
🏦 Controversy Surrounding the Federal Reserve Bank's Term Funding Program
This paragraph discusses the controversy around the Federal Reserve Bank's Term Funding Program (TBFP), which was an emergency measure that became more contentious over time. It highlights the arbitrage activities of banks seeking to profit from the spread between the borrowing rate from TBFP and the Fed's lending rate. The paragraph also raises questions about the legitimacy of banks using TBFP as a funding source and the preference of the Federal Reserve for banks to use the discount window instead. It mentions the increase in TBFP loans just before its shutdown, suggesting that banks might still prefer this option over the discount window despite the Fed's stance.
💸 Banks' Reluctance to Use the Discount Window and the Impact of Collateral
The paragraph delves into the reasons behind banks' hesitance to use the discount window, despite regulators' push for its use. It highlights the issue of collateral, as banks that lack sufficient collateral might have previously turned to TBFP. The discussion includes the challenges faced by banks like Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and First Republic, which were not viable without collateral and thus could not access the discount window. The segment also touches on the potential implications of the Federal Home Loan Banks' reluctance to provide advances in emergency situations, which could further limit banks' options for emergency funding.
📉 Economic Uncertainty and Banks' Struggle with Loan Repayment
This section focuses on the economic uncertainty and the challenges banks face in repaying loans. It discusses the lack of improvement in the banking system's condition, as evidenced by the lack of growth in lending and the contraction in commercial industrial lending. The paragraph raises concerns about the banks' ability to repay TBFP loans and the potential for a crisis of confidence in the Federal Reserve. It also touches on the narrative of economic robustness versus the reality of economic indicators and the impact of high unemployment claims on banks' loan portfolios.
🚨 The Impending Reckoning for Banks and the Future of Lending
The final paragraph discusses the impending challenges for banks as TBFP loans need to be repaid and other funding options are limited. It highlights the banks' reluctance to approach the discount window due to stigma and lack of collateral, and the potential for increased delinquencies and foreclosures. The segment also considers the impact of economic indicators on banks' willingness to lend and the potential for a toxic mix of risks in both loan portfolios and funding. The paragraph concludes by looking ahead to the next three months as a critical period for understanding how these issues will play out.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Federal Reserve Bank
💡Term Funding Program (BTFP)
💡Arbitrage
💡Discount Window
💡Stigma
💡Liquidity
💡Collateral
💡Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB)
💡Repo Market
💡Economic Uncertainty
💡Credit Card Delinquencies
Highlights
The Federal Reserve Bank's term funding program, known as BTFP, was a controversial emergency measure.
Banks engaged in arbitrage by borrowing from BTFP and leaving reserves with the Fed to earn interest.
The Federal Reserve prefers banks to use the discount window and is shutting down BTFP.
Despite BTFP's shutdown, there was a significant increase in loans from the program in its final week.
The total balance in the Fed's primary credit or discount window was much lower than the increase in BTFP loans.
Bank regulators are pushing for the use of the discount window, almost as if they want to take the Fed back to its earliest days.
Banks are reluctant to use the discount window due to the negative stigma associated with it.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bar emphasized the importance of banks using the discount window without stigma.
The banking system may still be signaling its reluctance to use the discount window despite BTFP's last-minute surge.
Banks may face challenges in finding collateral for the discount window, as was the case during the 2008 crisis.
Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) have become closer to a lender of last resort than the Federal Reserve.
FHLBs are now discouraging advances for anything more than expanding mortgage books, limiting emergency funding options for banks.
The Fed's emphasis on the discount window suggests there may be underlying issues not being addressed.
Banks are not taking up the Fed's invitation to use the discount window, including those considered 'good' banks.
The repayment of BTFP loans is uncertain, and banks continue to need more money, contradicting the narrative of a stable banking system.
Economic indicators, such as retail sales and foreclosure rates, suggest a shaky economy and potential risks for banks.
Banks may be forced to use the discount window as other funding options diminish, creating uncertainty about the terms and conditions.
The situation could lead to a crisis of confidence in the Fed as banks avoid it as a lender of last resort.
The Fed may have to cut rates to help banks sell upside-down assets and raise cash, despite not wanting to.
The unfolding situation over the next few months will be crucial in determining the stability of the banking system and the economy.
Transcripts
the Federal Reserve Bank term funding
program a controversial emergency
measure that became more controversial
as its life went on toward the end it
had attracted all sorts of Arbitrage
from banks that were seeking to profit
from the spread the borrowing rate that
they could get from btfp and then just
leaving their reserves on with the fed
and getting paid
Ro however there was always the question
about how many banks were actually using
the BT FP as legitimate source of
funding that maybe they couldn't get in
the marketplace well that question is
likely to be answered in the months
ahead and as it is as we're asking that
question the Federal Reserve has said
they prefer that Banks use the discount
window one of the reasons why they're
shutting down the btfp in addition to
this the bad press related to the
Arbitrage they want everyone to use the
discount window and they're not the only
ones Bank Regulators all across the
federal government are pushing discount
window discount window discount window
almost as if they want to take the the
FED back to the
1910s in its earliest days well just
recently the banking system sort of said
we don't want to use the discount window
because even though the Federal Reserve
shut down the btfp as of this past
Monday March 11th their statistics show
that during this past week which would
have been just Monday March 11th 3.4
billion in additional loans were made in
the btfp now that couldn't have been the
Arbitrage because the FED shut that down
back in January making sure that they
were charging a lending rate that
equaled I therefore there's no Arbitrage
free money there which raises the
question who was actually looking to the
btfp at the last minute in order to
engage in more lending from the fed and
it wasn't just the final week the week
before there was an increase in the btfp
a smaller one of 548 million but still
as this thing is being shut down
suddenly there's Banks rushing to it and
by the way the total Val total balance
in the fed's primary credit or discount
window as of this latest week was just
2.3 billion so there was a bigger
increase increase at the btfp than there
is in the total outstanding at the
discount window as the FED is shutting
down the btfp so Steve Steve vaner help
me make sense of this here the FED says
we're not going to use the btfp and then
suddenly in the last possible second a
bank or several Banks show up and say
3.4 billion more please you know Jee
this is setting up a crisis of
confidence because the FED is supposed
to be the lender of Last Resort and what
happened a year ago in March is they
weren't the lender of Last Resort
because everyone said there's such a
Negative stigma of getting money from
you we're going to go everywhere else
even to places what maybe we shouldn't
and those places said well we really
don't want to lend you but gosh given
what's going on right now we have no
choice and this doesn't look good for
the FED at all because here you have
their banks that they regulate going
everywhere else for money except them
and now they're trying to clean that up
and say look we're okay to go borrow
from forget those Decades of things that
we said to make you think that this is a
bad place in fact it should be
considered a good thing if you if you
need money well just come to us there's
no negative stigma but the problem is as
you know Jeff there is a massive Nega
stigma in the marketplace and the banks
do not want to go there the challenge
now is we knew a year ago that these
were all one-year loans from the bank
term funding program we knew they were
going to come due the Fed was betting
that somehow some way of course the
economy would recover things would
change and you could just take bad loans
and cover them up with new loans for
somewhere else the issue we have now is
the banks don't have the money we know
that they don't want to go to the fed
and so here we have a problem the
balance is or the payments are coming
due what are the banks going to do
that's a good question because Federal
Reserve Vice chairman bar last December
December 1st he gave a speech which
basically said discount window discount
window we want everybody to go to
Discount window and I know you've
mentioned this before in some of your
videos too the FED has said we're going
to force Banks to use the discount
window whether they like it or not
whether they want to use it or not we're
going to make sure that they use it the
quote that I have from bar is Banks need
to be willing to use the discount window
in good times and bad in other words
they should be there all the time
therefore there would be no Stigma if
everyone was using it so the question I
have is that this btfp use at the last
possible minute is that the banking
system saying yeah there's still stigma
we don't want to go to the discount
window just yet or are there other
issues beyond that with maybe collateral
because the discount window requires
posting collateral that's in their
experience last year during the banking
crisis Signature Bank Silicon Valley
Bank and First Republic they did not
have the collateral to go to the
discount window because if they did well
they wouldn't need to go to the discount
window in the first place you go to repo
Market but either way they didn't have
the collateral which is why they were no
longer viable Banks so the question is
this this this really curious increase
in the btfp at the last possible minute
is that the banking system in your
opinion Steve still saying we don't want
to go to the discount window or is there
something else there yeah Jee I I think
it's saying they don't want to go to the
discount window in fact I think the
banks are still hemorrhaging I think
they've got it stabilized and and I'm
going to say that in a nice way to say
they're still in the hospital they still
got things plugged into them and
connected to them but for the moment
they're breathing and everyone says well
it could it can't get any worse but now
they know these payments are do there's
nothing about the banks that have gotten
better it's not like lending is
increased where we've seen them create
you know more Revenue more deposits in
fact we're seeing commercial industrial
lending contract that's not a good sign
here so the challeng is for the banks is
where do you get the money to pay these
loans well if you don't want to go to
the discount window because either you
don't have the collateral or you don't
want the stigma you go to the one last
place you can get it and you squeeze
every last drop out of it and hope that
maybe something changes that's the
question here that's going to happen is
when it doesn't work and as you
mentioned in the of your show what
happens over the next three months is
going to determine a lot because maybe
the banks can fake it for a few weeks or
maybe a month or so then the only other
issue is if that doesn't work this has
to set up a case where the FED is forced
to cut when they don't want to only
reason is to take some of these upside
down assets the banks have so they can
go out and sell in the market raise cash
that may be the only answer Jeff and a
lot of people don't believe the FED
could get back to zero but that may be
the only way out for the banks well
that's true too because one of the the
the uh government institution that
actually is closer to the lender of Last
Resort than the Federal Reserve is the
federal home loan Banks they were that
way in 2008 in fact in 2007 Banks all
across the United States went to their
fhlb and got advances now the fhlb
advances aren't really meant to be a
last resort liquidity they're supposed
to help Banks put together mortgage es
and to Foster more home ownership that's
their original Mission however during
the last 16 years since then the fhbs
have become closer to the to the lender
of Last Resort that the Federal Reserve
supposed to be this discount window is
supposed to be but the fhlb is now
saying we don't want to do this anymore
in fact they put out a report last year
late last year called focusing on the
future and what they said was fhlb fhl
Bank members use advances to support
business operations specific liquidity
needs which allow them to better serve
their communities however has has been
made clear by a number of Market events
since 2008 a number of Market events not
just one or two the role of the H fhlb
banks in providing secured advances must
be distinguished from the Federal
Reserves financing facilities which are
set up to provide emergency financing
for troubled financial institutions
confronted with immediate liquidity
challenges the fhl bank system does not
have the functional capacity to serve as
a lender of Last Resort for troubled
members that could have significant
borrowing needs over a short period of
time when there's a question I mean what
happened last year because more than the
btfp more than the fed's discount window
Banks went to the fhlb and got advances
and the f fhlb is now saying we don't
want to give you these advances in
emergency situation so the fhlb banks
are are taking away an important and
really a significant source and a
significant Outlet of emergency funding
from the banking system as all of this
is coming down which is kind of it's
it's odd how much the FED has been
putting this emphasis on the discount
window which seems like there has to be
something else behind it yeah that's
what's interesting Jee it's like the
fed's getting some pressure maybe it's
just back door meetings with Congress we
don't know to say look you need to get a
hold of your own institutions that you
regulate you know when they have
problems they go to everyone but you and
that problem of course as you noted
stems from the fact that the FED says if
you're going to the FED if our discount
window it's because things were really
bad and boy if you go there it's not
just a slap on a hand at all in this
case now we have to change the tune that
hey you should be going to us well like
you said Jeff in Good Times hey you need
a little bit of money no problem just
give us some collateral and that way it
becomes an Oculus to the investing
public oh the banks just going to the
discount window well that's where Banks
go so why would it be a big issue
there's still some stigma there that
we're going to find out that the public
doesn't like now how the fed's going to
handle that well they're simple well
we'll just close all the other doors
we'll make calls to a federal Home Loan
Bank and everyone else that gives the
banks money said stop doing this change
your policies don't do it send them our
away what will the banks do in this case
that is a mystery here that I don't
think we have an answer to but the
problem is I think we're going to find
an answer but not in the way we'd like
to find one yeah that's a level of
uncertainty and a kind of uncertainty
that is uncomfortable to say the least
because as you're saying Steve the
discount window balance has been
basically flat it hasn't really moved
anywhere so it's not like as the as the
banking system has been prodded and
poked repeatedly by Regulators go to the
discount window go to the discount
window they're saying no we're not going
to the discount out window and so as far
as the banks seem to be concerned
they're not not taking this invitation
and that includes any of the good banks
that you would got to believe like in
2007 the Federal Reserve has all sorts
of informal conversations with the quote
unquote good Banks I'm in 2007 one of
the first things the FED did when the
crisis erupted it got on the phone with
Deutsche Bank and City group and Bank of
America and said hey go borrow from the
discount window so that you you show
everybody that hey this is fine and they
got these Banks to borrow a couple
hundred million each it wasn't much but
they did it in the first stage of the
crisis they had all these big Banks
borrow from the discount window which
didn't really help at all but that at
least they did that and you have to
wonder are those conversations being had
now because the FED continues to push
the discount window and it doesn't if
the conversations are being had it
doesn't seem like it's bearing any fruit
because nobody's using the thing and as
you're saying Steve it's it's it's
coming to the point where we're we're
getting to the Collision where 79
billion in btfp loans have to be repaid
in the next four weeks the fhbs are they
aren't shutting down the advances but
it's clear they're frowning on using
them for anything more than expanding
your mortgage book going back to the
original um the original Mission of the
fhlb banks so yeah as everybody's heard
in the discount window the banks keep
saying we don't want to go to the
discount window there is potential for a
little bit more than uncertainty well
Jee and of course it has to be
uncertainty here because as we've talked
about on your show before if indeed
things were getting better for the banks
what would they be doing is paying back
some of these loans now granted you
could make the case where okay they they
got in an Arbitrage situation so why
would you pay that back but they should
be paying back these loans and in a big
way because they wanted to tell their
depositors hey look you know what things
were not good back in March last year we
we screwed up we made some bad decisions
we're s sorry but look we learned from
our mistakes we're actually coming back
stronger than ever you can bring your
deposits back you can trust us but what
we continue to see is just the opposite
of that is they continuously need more
and more money to now to the point where
the fed's just kind of like standing out
there with flags saying come here to the
you know discount window and borrow from
us the problem that nobody seems to be
really addressing Jeff is why aren't the
banks paying this back because if
they're not paying it back then this no
Landing or soft Landing scenario that
we're going to hear next week from Fed
chair drone Bal Champion again just like
he did on 60 Minutes seeing that we've
stuck this Landing we nailed it we did
it is not true at all and that's the
what's dangerous here what I'm so
concerned about yeah there's that
economic sort of background element to
all this uncertainty too because yes
while the narrative in the mainstream is
that the US economy is robust and
resilient recent statistics don't seem
to agree with that at all even in the
latest payroll report as we've covered
useum here um where the establishment
survey looked good in the latest month
of course it was revised heavily
downward uh the previous months and then
the household survey sent some
substantial recession signals we got
more data this week retail sales in the
United States again more downward
revisions to previous estimates and then
a lackluster bounceback in February
suggesting that consumer spending may
just have hit that wall that everybody's
been waiting for and now that the
economy looks increasingly shaky in some
of these real important hard data
statistics not just in the pmis though
the pmis don't look good either maybe
that's part of this too because banks
have to you know you're sitting back as
a bank thinking I gotta lend it to this
real economy I don't care what GDP says
I don't care what J Powell says I got to
look at these borrowers in the shape of
borrowers I mean the Dollar Tree and a
Family Dollar in Dollar General the
major dollar store said they just this
week our customers can't afford to shop
at our dollar stores so the banks are
not going to be like yeah let's go out
and make a lot of loans it also puts
them as you're saying Steve on the spot
because they also that also considers is
a major consideration in their liquidity
management strategies as well so maybe
they're just sticking at the btfp
because it's the best or the least worst
option let's put it that way least worst
option right now and that the as that
rolls off and the btfp gets shut down
banks have to really do take a hard look
at the discount window because there
really isn't a whole lot of options
which is the real big Point here yeah
Jee I think banks are going to be forced
there um under what terms yet we don't
know because we don't know at what point
where the banks are going to be
screaming so loud that that's that's our
only option but we can look at the
credit card data we can see that
delinquencies and defaults are starting
to rise there banks are noting that and
just today I saw some data that says us
foreclosures are up 8% over a year ago
so you start to think about from the
banks perspective here if the economy
was indeed healing if we did stick this
soft Landing or no Landing or whatever
Landing you want to call it we should be
seeing the opposite Trend we should
start to say hey you know what these
numbers were rising of delinquencies
foreclosure but now they're trending
down and yeah okay maybe the banks need
some cash to buffer you know maybe for
the next year or so through this until
everything normalizes but we're seeing
the data go in the wrong direction and
with continued claim staying you know up
around 1.8 million which historically as
you know Jeff it's actually low but not
low when you're coming off a very low
level of claims it suggests that longer
these people are unemployment the less
money they have to make payments on
their debt that becomes a challenge for
the banks and I think that's what we're
hearing here the ultimate question is
how does this all play out well we'll
find out over the next three months as
you said yeah it's one of we can
continue to move in the same direction
however slowly where it's no longer just
risks to the US economy because the
banks have to lend into this real system
they have to look for these borrowers
and say you know they don't look like
they have enough of income prospects to
make it worth doing so and at the same
time now they have to worry about their
liquidity profile and their management
it's a pretty bad mix here it's it's not
it's not condu I mean it would be one
thing if the Soft Landing was was
actually unfolded
and the banking system would be
corroborating that inin their activities
when they're saying risks everywhere
risks in our loan portfolios risks on
the liability side with funding we don't
see the same Market funding that we got
or at least that we would expect in this
type of environment it really is as you
said Steve it really is a pretty toxic
mix so we we'll see how this works out
moving forward looking ahead looking
much farther head at more optimistic
monetary stuff the crypto Revolution the
real one it just had a really good
conversation with Andy Bromberg about
just that and that's the video linked
below as always I thank you very much
for joining me huge thank you your doity
members and subscribers and until next
time take
care
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