Retired colonel says this move could be a sign of a rift between US-Israel relations
Summary
TLDR在MSNBC的一次采访中,美国总统拜登表示,以色列进入拉法为其划下的红线,这将是一场灾难,因为那里有超过一百万的人民避难,且无处可去。尽管拜登发出警告,以色列总理内塔尼亚胡仍表示将继续对拉法的军事行动,以根除哈马斯,并可能扩展到黎巴嫩南部。同时,以色列和哈马斯在释放人质和停火问题上的谈判陷入僵局,双方均坚持各自的立场,使得和平前景变得渺茫。
Takeaways
- 🚨 拜登总统明确表示,以色列进入拉法赫将是一条红线,因为那里有超过一百万的居民,而且他们无处可去。
- 🗓 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示,尽管拜登总统发出警告,但对拉法赫的攻势仍将继续,他认为10月7日是一个重要的日期,要确保不再发生类似事件。
- 🥊 内塔尼亚胡强调,以色列国防军(IDF)进入拉法赫打击哈马斯的行动可能需要两个月或更短的时间,且在达成协议前不会有战斗暂停。
- 💥 内塔尼亚胡还提到,可能会将军事行动扩展到黎巴嫩南部,那里已经发生了多次以色列和真主党之间的交火。
- 🛣️ 以色列正在加沙地带修建一条公路,这表明以色列试图在加沙保持一定程度的军事存在,并可能使其成为永久性的存在。
- 🏡 哈马斯领导人伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚表示,哈马斯仍愿意谈判,但指责以色列是导致谈判进展停滞的原因。
- 🕊️ 拜登总统在采访中提到,中央情报局(CIA)局长正在以色列与摩萨德(Mossad)进行会谈,但以色列和哈马斯并未公开进行对话。
- 🔥 哈马斯在开罗的上一轮谈判中退出,而以色列从未参与,因为他们认为哈马斯未能满足其最新要求,包括提供活着和死去的人质名单。
- 🏢 以色列坚持战争只会在哈马斯被完全摧毁后结束,这意味着他们可能会进入拉法赫,无论是在达成停火协议之前还是之后。
- 🚢 有消息称,用于新浮动码头的设备正在运往加沙,但五角大楼表示,完成码头至少需要一个月的时间。
- 🥢 尽管有援助物资正在运送,但目前加沙地带的居民面临的饥饿和可能的疾病问题仍然非常严重。
Q & A
美国总统拜登提到的“红线”是指什么?
-美国总统拜登提到的“红线”是指以色列进攻拉法赫(Rafah),因为那里有超过一百万的人在寻求庇护,而且几乎没有其他地方可以去。
以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对于进攻拉法赫的态度是怎样的?
-以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示,尽管美国总统拜登发出了警告,以色列仍将继续在拉法赫对哈马斯进行军事行动,他认为自己的“红线”是10月7日,并确保不会再次发生类似事件。
内塔尼亚胡提到的军事行动可能持续多久?
-内塔尼亚胡提到,以色列国防军(IDF)进入拉法赫铲除哈马斯的行动可能需要两个月,或许少于两个月,并且在达成某种协议将人质带回家之前,战斗不会暂停。
以色列和哈马斯之间的谈判现状如何?
-以色列和哈马斯之间目前并没有公开进行谈判。哈马斯退出了在开罗的最后一轮谈判,而以色列从未参与,因为他们认为哈马斯没有满足其最新要求,包括提供活着的人质和已死的人质的名单。
哈马斯对于恢复谈判的立场是什么?
-哈马斯领导人伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚(Ismail Haniyeh)在电视讲话中表示,哈马斯仍然愿意进行谈判,但他认为以色列应该为谈判缺乏进展负责,并坚持在达成协议之前不会释放人质。
美国在以色列和哈马斯之间的谈判中扮演什么角色?
-美国中央情报局(CIA)局长在以色列与摩萨德(Mossad)的同行会面,但以色列和哈马斯之间并没有公开对话,美国在这些谈判中试图促成停火和解决人质问题。
以色列在加沙地带建立的军事道路有什么战略意义?
-以色列建立的军事道路意味着他们试图在加沙地带保持一定程度的军事存在,并尽可能使其成为永久性存在。这条道路将帮助以色列军队快速进出加沙,可能用于对恐怖分子的突袭、火箭发射设施等。
目前加沙地带的人道主义援助情况如何?
-目前加沙地带急需人道主义援助,美国军方正努力安装一个新的浮动码头以便船只能够抵达并提供必要的支持。同时,有一艘驳船正从塞浦路斯前往加沙,预计能够带来约200卡车的食物和其他必需品。
以色列和哈马斯的冲突对美国与以色列的关系有何影响?
-以色列的行动使得美国总统拜登在国内外面临压力,一方面需要平息阿拉伯裔美国人社区的担忧,另一方面又要展示对以色列的强力支持。这使得美国在国际论坛上或与欧洲盟友及国际公众舆论中难以为其政策辩护,可能对美以关系造成损害。
以色列和哈马斯的冲突对加沙地带平民的影响是什么?
-以色列和哈马斯的冲突导致加沙地带平民遭受严重的人道主义危机,包括食物短缺、医疗资源匮乏以及安全威胁。冲突还可能导致大量平民伤亡和流离失所。
以色列的军事行动对加沙地带的基础设施有何影响?
-以色列的军事行动可能导致加沙地带的基础设施遭到严重破坏,包括住宅、公共设施和交通网络。这将加剧人道主义危机,并对未来的重建工作造成巨大挑战。
Outlines
🌐 拜登总统谈及以色列对拉法赫的行动
美国总统拜登在MSNBC的采访中表示,以色列进入拉法赫将是一条红线,因为那里有超过一百万的居民,而且他们无处可去。尽管拜登发出了警告,以色列总理内塔尼亚胡却表示将按计划进行军事行动,声称他的红线是10月7日,并强调不会再次发生那样的事件。内塔尼亚胡还提到,以色列国防军进入拉法赫打击哈马斯可能需要两个月或更短的时间,并且在达成某种协议前不会有战斗暂停。他还暗示可能会将军事行动扩展到黎巴嫩南部。
🤝 以色列与哈马斯的谈判僵局
尽管拜登总统强调了以色列与哈马斯之间缺乏公开对话的问题,哈马斯在开罗的上一轮谈判后退出,而以色列从未参与,因为他们认为哈马斯未能满足其最新要求,包括提供活着的人质和已死的人质的名单。哈马斯坚持要求永久停火和以色列国防军完全撤出加沙。以色列则坚持战争只会在哈马斯被完全摧毁后结束,这意味着将进入拉法赫。此外,以色列还表示战争结束后,以色列国防军将在加沙拥有完全的控制权,可以自由进入任何地方。哈马斯领导人伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚在电视讲话中表示,哈马斯仍愿意谈判,但指责以色列是缺乏进展的原因,并坚持在达成协议前不会有人质获释。
🛠️ 以色列在加沙地带的军事行动与基础设施建设
CNN军事分析师、退役美国空军上校塞德里克·莱顿讨论了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡关于入侵拉法赫的评论,这可能会预示着总统与总理之间的摊牌。以色列有军事上的必要性,即在拉法赫摧毁哈马斯,因为那里似乎是集中了大量人口的南部地区。然而,由于当地居民众多,将他们撤离到安全地带将非常困难。此外,美国军方正在努力在加沙建立一个新的浮动码头,尽管需要至少一个月的时间来完成,但这是迫切需要的。美国军方需要迅速行动,以确保必要的物资能够及时到达加沙。以色列还在加沙地带建设一条公路,这表明他们试图在那里保持一定程度的军事存在,并尽可能使其成为永久性的。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡President Biden
💡red line
💡Rafah
💡Netanyahu
💡IDF
💡Hezbollah
💡hostages
💡ceasefire
💡Gaza
💡military operations
💡international community
Highlights
美国总统拜登在MSNBC的采访中表示,以色列进入拉法赫将是一条红线。
拉法赫有超过一百万的居民在避难,而且实际上没有其他地方可以去。
以色列表示将撤离拉法赫的居民,但该国其他地区几乎每个地方都在发生战斗和轰炸。
尽管拜登总统发出了不要越过红线的警告,内塔尼亚胡总理仍表示将推进对拉法赫的攻势。
内塔尼亚胡总理提到,以色列国防军进入拉法赫清除哈马斯的行动可能需要两个月或更短的时间。
内塔尼亚胡强调,除非达成某种协议以带回人质,否则战斗不会暂停。
内塔尼亚胡还提到可能会将军事行动扩展到黎巴嫩南部。
以色列北部有数万人因与黎巴嫩真主党的交火而被迫离开家园。
内塔尼亚胡表示,以色列将尽一切努力恢复安全并带回人质。
以色列和哈马斯没有公开对话,CIA局长访问以色列与摩萨德进行会谈。
哈马斯在开罗的上一轮谈判中离开,以色列从未参与,因为哈马斯未能满足其最新要求。
哈马斯坚持要求实现永久停火和以色列国防军完全撤出加沙。
以色列坚持战争只会在完全摧毁哈马斯后才结束,这意味着将进入拉法赫。
以色列表示战后以色列国防军将在加沙内部自由行动。
哈马斯领导人伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚表示愿意谈判,但指责以色列阻碍进展。
美国试图在支持以色列和满足阿拉伯美国社区关切之间找到平衡。
美国在国际论坛和欧洲盟友面前难以为以色列政策辩护。
美国军方需要迅速行动安装新的浮动码头,以支持加沙的迫切需求。
从塞浦路斯到加沙的驳船上装载的物资可能有助于缓解加沙人民的饥饿和必需品短缺问题。
以色列正在加沙地带建设一条道路,可能用于加强军事存在和快速行动。
Transcripts
President Biden, etc., an interv
on MSNBC on Saturday
that, look, his red line
would be Israel going into Rafah
which even Israel's
closest allies
and many other countries
in the international community
would be a catastrophe
because you have well
over a million people
there who are sheltering.
And frankly,
there is nowhere for them to go.
Israel has said
that they would evacuate them el
but there is fighting and bombin
taking place in virtually
every other part of the country.
And yet, despite
that warning from President Bide
of not crossing that red line,
we have Prime Minister
Netanyahu saying that
that offensive in Rafah will, in
go ahead, saying that his red li
is October 7th
and making sure
that that doesn't happen again.
And he
he said that
an IDF incursion
into Rafah to root out Hamas
there
could take two months,
perhaps even less than two month
and that there would be no pause
in the fighting
until there is
some kind of a deal made
to bring the hostages home.
He also left open
the possibility
of expanding
military operations
into southern Lebanon,
where, of course,
there have been many back and fo
fires firing between Hezbollah
and the Israelis.
In fact, you have hundreds
or you have tens of thousands of
who've been forced to leave thei
in northern Israel.
And this is what Netanyahu said
about ensuring those people
can go back home. Listen.
So we'll do whatever
we can to restore security for t
and bring them home.
And I hope we can do that
if we have to do it with a milit
means will do so.
If there's a diplomatic way
to achieve it, fine,
but ultimately will do it.
It is worth pointing out, Erica,
that that Hezbollah, excuse me,
is a much more formidable fighti
that really dwarfs
the capabilities of Hamas.
The Israelis themselves
estimate, at least
before the war, estimated
that there were hundreds,
maybe thousands of rockets
stored in people's
private homes
near the border
within firing range of Israel.
When it comes to the negotiation
to get those hostages
back, the hostages back in
any kind of a potential cease fi
the hopes of that happening
any time soon are pretty
dim at this stage of the game. Y
President Biden pointing out
that the CIA director was in Isr
to meet with his Mossad counterp
But the problem is
that the Israelis
and Hamas
are not actually talking to each
at least not publicly.
You had Hamas leaving
the last round of talks
in Cairo on Thursday
and the Israelis were never ther
in the first place
because they say that
Hamas has failed
to address its latest demands,
which include
providing a list of hostages
which are alive
and which hostages are dead.
I mean,
Hamas says that it cannot provid
Hamas is also digging in
on its key demands
of a permanent cease fire
and a full withdrawal of the IDF
from Gaza.
Both things
that are going to be very diffic
for the Israelis to agree to
because they continue to insist
that the war will only end,
as you heard the prime minister
saying there,
until Hamas is completely destro
And that means going into Rafah,
whether that's
before or after any kind of a ce
deal is made.
And they also say that
the day after the war,
the IDF will have full control,
free rein to go wherever they wa
inside of Gaza.
And the IDF will also continue t
the borders of everything
going in and out of the territor
We also heard from the Hamas
leader, Ismail Haniyeh,
who gave a televised address say
that Hamas is still open to talk
but he says that
it is Israel
who is to blame
for the lack of of progress.
And he also insisted
that there would be no hostages
until there's a deal. Erica. Wow
And as we watch all of that,
a lot of really important
developments tonight.
Scott, appreciate it. Thank you.
I want to bring in our CNN
military analyst, retired U.S.
Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighto
Colonel, always good to see you.
First, I'd just love to get your
as we start to Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's comments
about invading Rafah,
which, of course,
come on
the heels of what we heard
from President Biden in
that interview yesterday.
Yeah, Eric, I think this is
really setting things up
for a showdown between President
and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
It looks as if both sides, both
side and the Israeli side,
are basically digging in
in their respective positions.
The Israelis
have that military imperative
of basically destroying Hamas
and doing it at Rafah
because everybody seems
to be concentrated
in that area there in the southe
part of Gaza.
The problem with that, as Scott
pointed out in his reporting, a
plus people are right there
because they had to flee to that
and to get them out of there,
to get them out of harm's way
is going to be really difficult
to do under the best of circumst
And in these conditions,
those circumstances are certainl
quite difficult.
So it's one of those areas
where
we're going to see a lot of diff
a lot of problems.
And this could portend a rift in
Israeli relations,
at least to some extent,
and that could be really dangero
for any peace prospects for this
Were you surprised at all
at how far we saw
the president
go in those comments yesterday
saying that Rafah would be a red
when asked about other specific
red lines?
He was a little less committal,
if you will,
but said there can't be another
another 30,000 Palestinian
civilian deaths,
for example,
the fact that the rhetoric is no
ramping up.
And to your point,
the impact that this could have
moving forward,
especially given the US role
in these talks, in these efforts
to try to get to a cease fire,
to try to get some of the hostag
How damaging could this be at th
This could be very damaging.
It could be damaging
for the Israeli hostages
that are still being held by Ham
It could be damaging
for all of the Palestinian civil
that are
caught in this in Gaza,
especially in Rafah.
And, you know,
from a political standpoint,
I think what you're seeing here
is, on the one hand, domesticall
President Biden is trying very h
to placate concerns
from the Arab American community
And on the other hand,
he still wants to show himself
as being a strong supporter of I
But the things that Israel is do
that make it very difficult for
to, in essence, sell
those policies or defend those p
in international forums like the
or with European allies in the E
Union
and with international public
opinion at large.
And so this is where the United
finds itself,
and it's going to be really diff
for them to work with the United
to be in lockstep with Israel
at this particular juncture.
Let's talk about the aid situati
Some news today
that some of the equipment
for this new floating
pier is actually on its way to G
So the Pentagon has said
that pier is going to take
probably at least a month to con
It would require as many
as a thousand troops
to get that completed.
That's a long timeline.
When we look at just
how acute the needs are today,
what do you make of that timelin
Well, it's certainly a long time
I do think that it is possible
to do some things.
I a lot quicker than that timeli
For example,
we know that there is a barge
that's on its way from Cyprus
right now to Gaza,
or at least
it's supposed to be on its way.
Sometime today.
If that is the case,
then that will help alleviate
some of the things that are
that are plaguing the population
in terms of hunger and possible
But the fact is that the militar
the U.S.
military is going to have
to move very quickly
to install this floating pier
and to make sure
that the requisite number of shi
can actually come in to provide
the kind of support that's neces
I think
it is
something that
should have been done a bit earl
but sometimes we just know
how difficult the situation is o
IT situation is
until we start seeing the pictur
from places like us.
One country
official said that
this new Marine corridor
would bring some 200 truckloads
via barge from Cyprus to Gaza ea
Do you think that is a realistic
I did a little quick math just b
how many containers can fit on b
and how many
shipping containers can fit on t
And it does seem a realistic pos
assuming that
all of the flows from places lik
are going to be uninterrupted
and they're not going to be
any security issues
once everything gets to Gaza.
So assuming all of that works pe
it is realistic
that somewhere
around the order of 200 truckloa
of foodstuffs
and other necessary equipment
can get into Gaza using this met
Of course,
the other thing is,
I think
when before
this crisis
occurred on the 7th of October.
I read
somewhere around 400 to 500 truc
that were needed just to sustain
the population.
So this is about
a little less than half of
what they really need in order
to sustain themselves.
Really quickly,
before I let you go,
we have a CNN
analysis of satellite images whi
Israel building this road
that runs across the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli military has said
that route will help
to establish
an operational foothold in Gaza.
What does that say to you?
Well, it says to me that the
Israelis are going to try to mai
some degree of presence
of military presence in Gaza,
and they're going to make it
as much of a permanent presence
as they possibly can.
Basically,
this road will facilitate them
getting in and out very quickly.
And it may facilitate
the idea of lightning raids agai
terror cells,
you know,
installations of that type,
possibly rocket launch
facilities, things like that.
They're building it for military
and they want to continue
to have a say in Gaza
and basically the security situa
there and do want to try
to protect themselves
from Hamas at this point.
Colonel Cedric Leighton,
always appreciate your insight
and your expertise. Thank you.
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