Thyssenkrupp Aktie unter 3 Euro – wo sind die Chancen?

Tipp Checker

10 Sept 202412:56

Summary

TLDRIn this financial discussion, the focus is on the struggling steel industry and the stock performance of TÜSSEN Group. The conversation revolves around the company's challenges, including management shake-ups, economic downturns, and plummeting steel prices. The speakers consider the potential of a reverse bonus certificate as an investment opportunity, speculating on the likelihood of the stock recovering within a set timeframe. They also touch on the broader implications of the industry's troubles, including the impact on the German economy and the possibility of a shift towards green steel production.

Takeaways

📉 The discussion revolves around the declining stock price of TÜSSEN Group, with a focus on the company's steel division.
🔍 The speaker suggests that the stock price, which has been falling, should eventually rebound, but current charts show a continued downward trend.
🏗️ The company is facing significant challenges, including a management shake-up, weak global economic conditions, and reduced demand for steel.
🌐 There's mention of a Czech investor interested in the steel division, but the situation is complex due to guarantees and negotiations.
🏭 The core issue is the steel division's overcapacity and the need to reduce production, which is exacerbating existing tensions within the company.
💡 The speaker considers the possibility of a turnaround with the company focusing on green steel production, which could be a profitable niche in Germany.
📈 The current steel price is very low, and there's a lack of demand, which is reflected in the company's stock price and the broader industry's production forecasts.
💼 There's skepticism about the ability of new management to quickly resolve the company's issues, given the complexity and history of challenges in the steel industry.
📊 The speaker discusses a financial product called a 'reverse bonus' that could offer returns if the stock price does not rise above a certain level within a set period.
⚠️ There's a clear risk warning about the potential for total loss with such speculative investment products, emphasizing the importance of understanding the risks involved.

Q & A

What is the main concern regarding TÜSSENGRUPP's stock discussed in the script?
-The main concern is the significant drop in TÜSSENGRUPP's stock price, which is attributed to various factors including management issues, economic downturns, and weak demand for steel.
What recent changes in TÜSSENGRUPP's management are mentioned in the script?
-The script mentions the departure of Sigma Gabriel and the need for new personnel to be appointed, which adds to the uncertainty and challenges faced by the company.
What is the current state of the steel market according to the script?
-The script describes the steel market as being in a weak state with a significant drop in steel prices, influenced by factors such as a global economic slowdown and reduced demand from major steel consumers like the automotive industry.
What is the proposed plan for TÜSSENGRUPP's steel division mentioned in the script?
-The script discusses a plan to spin off the steel division and have a Czech investor join, who is expected to bring substantial capital but also demands guarantees and a significant say in the company's operations.
What is the significance of the reverse bonus mentioned in the script?
-The reverse bonus is a financial product that pays out if the TÜSSENGRUPP's stock price does not rise above a certain threshold within a specified period. It's seen as a speculative investment based on the expectation that the stock will not recover significantly.
What is the barrier price for the reverse bonus product discussed in the script?
-The barrier price for the reverse bonus product is €3.90. If the stock price stays below this level for the next 100 days, the bonus is paid out.
What is the potential return on the reverse bonus product if the conditions are met?
-If the conditions are met, the potential return on the reverse bonus product is 10% of the investment within 100 days, which translates to approximately 38% annualized.
What is the maximum potential loss with the reverse bonus product if the stock price recovers?
-The maximum potential loss with the reverse bonus product is the full amount invested, as the product becomes worthless if the stock price exceeds the barrier price.
What is the speaker's opinion on the likelihood of TÜSSENGRUPP's stock price recovering significantly in the next few months?
-The speaker expresses a pessimistic view, suggesting that the probability of TÜSSENGRUPP's stock price recovering more than 34% in the next few months is quite low due to the complex issues the company is facing.
What advice does the speaker give regarding investing in TÜSSENGRUPP or similar speculative products?
-The speaker advises caution, recommending that one should only invest in what they understand and not put in more money than they can afford to lose, especially with speculative products like the reverse bonus.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Stock Discussion and Market Analysis

The speaker begins by discussing a stock recommendation they made that morning, suggesting a potential downturn and the need for discussion. They mention a 'reverse bonus' strategy and express skepticism about the stock's recovery based on recent charts. The conversation then shifts to the performance of 'tüsseng Grup,' with a focus on the steel industry's struggles, including management changes, economic downturns, and weakening demand from the automotive sector. The speaker highlights the existential threat to the steel division of tüssengrp, with plans to reduce production and the challenges of corporate management amidst political and union pressures. They also touch on the potential for a green steel future and the importance of hydrogen solutions for production, suggesting that Germany could still compete in this niche market.

05:02

🔍 In-Depth Analysis of tüssengrp's Stock and Market Conditions

The discussion continues with an in-depth analysis of tüssengrp's stock, focusing on the company's challenges and market conditions. The speaker notes the stock's decline and the lack of recovery signs, despite a proposed 'reverse bonus' strategy. They delve into the complexities of the steel market, including overcapacity, falling steel prices, and the impact of global economic conditions. The conversation also considers the potential for government intervention and the likelihood of a turnaround in the company's fortunes. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the speculative nature of the investment and the risks involved, suggesting caution and a thorough understanding of the market dynamics before making any investment decisions.

10:04

🚫 Cautionary Advice on tüssengrp Investment

In the final paragraph, the speaker advises against investing in tüssengrp due to the company's precarious situation and the falling steel prices. They discuss the potential for political non-support and the escalating issues within the company, suggesting that the likelihood of a significant stock price increase within the next three months is very low. The speaker reiterates the speculative nature of the investment, highlighting the risks of total loss and the importance of understanding the product and its potential outcomes. They emphasize the need for caution, suggesting that investors should only invest what they can afford to lose and should be well-informed about the complexities of the market and the specific investment product.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡ThyssenKrupp

ThyssenKrupp is a German industrial conglomerate known for its steel production. In the script, the discussion revolves around the challenges the company is facing, particularly its steel division. The company's restructuring, leadership changes, and financial struggles are central to the conversation.

💡Steel Division

The Steel Division of ThyssenKrupp is a key focus of the video, where concerns about its financial health and operational sustainability are highlighted. The segment emphasizes the declining steel prices and overcapacity issues, making it hard for the company to recover in the short term.

💡Reverse Bonus

A Reverse Bonus is a type of financial product discussed in the video. It offers returns if the underlying asset, in this case, ThyssenKrupp's stock, does not exceed a certain threshold. The script explains how this product can generate profit even if the stock does not significantly recover.

💡Stahlpreis (Steel Price)

The price of steel, a major factor impacting ThyssenKrupp’s performance. The script describes how steel prices have been in free fall due to weakened demand and overproduction, particularly in China. This has a direct effect on the profitability and recovery potential of ThyssenKrupp’s steel division.

💡Barriere (Barrier)

In the context of the reverse bonus product, the barrier refers to the price level (3.90 €) that the ThyssenKrupp stock must not exceed for the investment to pay out. The script uses this as a key point in explaining how this financial instrument works.

💡Grüner Stahl (Green Steel)

Green steel refers to steel produced using environmentally friendly methods, particularly with hydrogen. The script mentions ThyssenKrupp's investment in green steel as a potential long-term solution, positioning it as an opportunity for the company to align with future environmental standards.

💡Existenzbedrohende Lage (Existential Threat)

This term describes the dire financial situation of ThyssenKrupp's steel division. The script explains how the combination of declining demand, leadership issues, and political complications create an existential threat to the company’s future.

💡Puffer (Buffer)

Buffer refers to the margin in the reverse bonus product that protects the investor. In the video, it is described as the 35% difference between the current stock price and the barrier level, providing a cushion against stock fluctuations.

💡Turnaround

Turnaround refers to the potential recovery of ThyssenKrupp, particularly its steel division. The script expresses skepticism about whether the company can overcome its complex challenges, including internal management issues and the global steel market conditions, in the next few months.

💡Totalverlust (Total Loss)

Total loss is the risk associated with the reverse bonus product if ThyssenKrupp's stock rises above the barrier. The script warns investors that there is a risk of losing the entire investment if the stock surpasses certain thresholds.

Highlights

A reverse bonus product was suggested as a speculative investment option, with a cap on potential gains and the risk of total loss.

Thyssenkrupp's steel division faces significant challenges, including the replacement of key management positions, economic downturns, and low steel prices.

Steel prices in Europe are plummeting, currently in free fall, with demand weakening significantly.

Thyssenkrupp's steel division is planning to reduce production from 11.5 million tons to 9 million tons due to overcapacity.

The future of green steel, which uses hydrogen solutions for production, could be a game-changer for Thyssenkrupp.

Despite political tensions and management changes, there's a possibility that green steel could allow Germany to compete in high-cost production environments.

The reverse bonus certificate discussed has a 35% buffer, with a barrier at €3.90, offering a 9.59% annualized return if the stock stays below this threshold.

The risks associated with this investment are high, with a chance of total loss if Thyssenkrupp's stock price exceeds certain levels.

The market conditions and internal challenges at Thyssenkrupp make a significant stock recovery unlikely in the next few months.

The political and labor union complications within Thyssenkrupp's management make a fast turnaround of the steel division improbable.

The investor discussed sees a reverse bonus product as a more viable strategy than directly investing in Thyssenkrupp stock, given the risks.

Thyssenkrupp's difficulties are compounded by the global economic slowdown and reduced demand from key sectors such as the automotive industry.

Steel prices are projected to remain low, with a negative outlook for the next few months.

The product discussed offers a maximum return if the stock price remains below €3.90 within the next 100 days, even if Thyssenkrupp stock stabilizes slightly.

China's production capabilities add to the downward pressure on global steel prices, negatively impacting Thyssenkrupp's recovery.