Steve Kornacki: 2024 polls show a 'significant' gender gap
Summary
TLDRThe script discusses the gender gap in the presidential race, highlighting that in 2020, Trump won among men but had a 12.2% lead over Biden in pre-debate polls. Biden, however, won women by 13%. The current gender gap stands at 18 points nationally, with Trump leading men by 7% and trailing women by 9%. The script questions whether state-specific events or issues like abortion politics in battleground states might be influencing these gaps, suggesting that further observation is needed to understand if these state-specific gender gaps will persist or grow.
Takeaways
- 📊 In 2020, Trump won among men but had a 12.2% lead over Biden in the months before the election, which has since decreased to 7%.
- 🔍 Men tend to lean more Republican, whereas Biden won women by 13% in the month before the debate, with that lead decreasing to 5%.
- 🌟 Harris has seen an increase in support among women, leading by 9 points in the months since the debate.
- 🚹 Trump currently leads men by an average of 7 points, and women by 9 points, creating an 18-point gender gap nationally in 2020.
- ❓ The script raises a question mark over the gender gap in battleground states, suggesting that what is happening nationally may not be reflected there.
- 📈 In Michigan, Trump leads men by 20 points, with a 30-point gender gap, indicating significant differences in political preferences by gender.
- ⚠️ The script cautions that there could be statistical noise in the data, as seen in Pennsylvania where the gender gap is barely noticeable.
- 📉 The numbers can fluctuate, and the script suggests looking for state-specific events or issues that might be influencing the gender gap.
- 🤔 The discussion ponders whether abortion politics in certain states might be affecting the gender gap in voter preferences.
- 🔎 The script concludes by questioning whether we need to see more data to determine if state-specific gender gaps are significant or approaching the scale of the national gap.
Q & A
What was the gender gap in the 2020 presidential race according to the script?
-In the 2020 presidential race, the gender gap was 18 points, with Trump leading men by 7 points and Biden leading women by 13 points.
How did the gender gap change in the months leading up to the debate in 2020?
-In the months before the debate, Biden's lead with women decreased from 13 points to 5 points, while Trump's lead with men decreased from 12 points to 7 points.
What is the current average gender gap in the polls as mentioned in the script?
-The current average gender gap in the polls is 18 points, with Trump leading men by 7 points and Harris leading women by 9 points.
What is the significance of the gender gap in Michigan as per the script?
-In Michigan, Trump had a 20-point lead among men, which is a significant gender gap of 30 points when compared to Harris's 24 points among women.
Why might there be a cautionary note about the gender gap numbers in the script?
-There could be statistical noise in the gender gap numbers, as indicated by the script, which suggests that the numbers can fluctuate and may not be entirely reliable.
What is the situation regarding the gender gap in Pennsylvania according to the script?
-In Pennsylvania, the script mentions that there is barely a gender gap at all, indicating a more balanced distribution of support between men and women.
What factors might be affecting the gender gap in battleground states as discussed in the script?
-The script suggests that state-specific events, abortion politics, and other local issues might be affecting the gender gap in battleground states.
What is the question raised by the variations in the gender gap across different states?
-The script raises the question of whether there are state-specific factors causing variations in the gender gap, and whether these factors are significant enough to warrant further investigation.
Why is it important to monitor the gender gap in state-specific polls according to the script?
-Monitoring the gender gap in state-specific polls is important because it can reveal trends and potential shifts in voter preferences that might not be visible at the national level.
What does the script suggest about the necessity of seeing more data on the gender gap?
-The script suggests that more data is needed to determine if the observed state-specific gender gaps are consistent and significant, and to understand their implications for the election.
Outlines
📊 Gender Gap in the Presidential Race
This paragraph discusses the gender gap in the presidential race, focusing on the differences in polling numbers between men and women. In 2020, Trump won among men, but recent polls show a narrowing lead with Biden. Men tend to lean more Republican, while Biden won women by a significant margin. The gender gap is highlighted by comparing Trump's lead among men with his deficit among women. The paragraph also points out variations in this gap across different states, suggesting that state-specific events or issues like abortion politics might be influencing these numbers. The discussion raises questions about the consistency and impact of these state-specific gender gaps on the election.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Gender Gap
💡Polling
💡Battleground States
💡Statistical Noise
💡Abortion Politics
💡National Trends
💡State-Specific Events
💡Swing States
💡Voter Preferences
💡Polling Data
💡Political Candidates
Highlights
The gender gap in the presidential race is a significant factor to consider.
In 2020, Trump won among men, but Biden was ahead in polling before the debate.
Trump's lead among men was 12.2 points above Biden in the months before the debate.
Currently, Trump's lead among men has decreased from 12 to 7 points.
Men tend to lean more Republican, while Biden won women by 13 points before the debate.
Harris has now increased her lead among women to 9 points in the months since the debate.
The gender gap is 18 points in 2020, with Trump leading men by 7 and Biden leading women by 9.
There is a significant gender gap in Michigan, with Trump leading by 20 points among men.
In Pennsylvania, the gender gap is barely noticeable, indicating state-specific differences.
State-specific events and issues, such as abortion politics, may be affecting the gender gap.
The gender gap in battleground states may not necessarily reflect the national trend.
Statistical noise could be present in the polling data, affecting the interpretation of the gender gap.
The need for more data is raised to understand the gender gap's consistency across states.
Further observation of state-specific gender gaps is necessary to draw conclusions about their scale.
The gender gap's impact on the election outcome is a critical area of focus for political analysts.
Transcripts
CLOSELY. GREAT CONVERSATION. WE
APPRECIATE IT, THOUGH.
AND THE ALL-IMPORTANT GENDER
GAP OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE.
>> YEAH, KRISTEN.
TWO WAYS TO LOOK AT IT
NATIONALLY.
LOOK AT IT THIS WAY IN 2020.
TRUMP WON AMONG MEN.
BUT IN THE POLLING, IN THE
MONTHS BEFORE, 12.2 SEE HERE
ABOVE BIDEN. IN THE AVERAGE OF
ALL OF THE POLLS, NOW TRUMP IS
DOWN A BIT FROM WHERE IT WAS
WITH BIDEN.
DOWN FROM 12 TO 7. MEN, MORE
REPUBLICAN THAN WOMEN.
TRUMP ON AVERAGE -- BIDEN WON
WOMEN BY 13.
IN THE MONTH BEFORE THE DEBATE,
HE STILL LED WITH WOMEN.
DOWN TO FIVE POINTS.
HARRIS HAS NOW SWITCHED IN THE
MONTHS SINCE UP TO NINE POINTS.
SO WHAT DO YOU HAVE?
YOU HAVE TRUMP ON AVERAGE
LEADING MEN BY SEVEN, MEN BY
NINE.
THAT IS A GENDER GAP.
18 POINTS IN 2020. THIS IS WHAT
WE'VE COME TO EXPECT NATIONALLY.
SO WHERE IS THE QUESTION MARK?
IT'S HERE.
THIS IS ALL ONE POSTER.
AND THIS IS OFTEN LAST WEEK.
CHECK SOME OF THESE OUT.
MICHIGAN, TRUMP BY 20 AMONG MEN.
THAT IS A POLL OF 48 POINTS.
TRUMP, 17, HARRIS 24.
30 POINT GENDER GAP.
CAUTIONARY NOTES, THERE COULD
BE STATISTICAL NOISE HERE.
JUST LOOK AT PENNSYLVANIA.
BARELY A GENDER GAP AT ALL.
THESE NUMBERS CAN BOUNCE AROUND.
THIS IS THE THING TO LOOK FOR.
IN SOME OF THE BATTLEGROUND
STATES, IT'S NOT NECESSARILY
HAPPENING NATIONALLY.
ARE THERE STATE SPECIFIC EVENTS?
THEY GET THINGS HAPPENING IN
SWING STATES. MAYBE THAT'S
AFFECTING THE GENDER GAP.
ARE THERE ABORTION POLITICS IN
SOME OF THESE STATES?
THOSE ARE THE UESTIONS RAISED
BY THIS.
DO WE NEED TO SEE MORE?
DO WE KEEP SEEING STATE PACIFIC
BASHED SPECIFIC GENDER GAPS OF
ANYTHING APPROACHING THAT SCALE?
BECAUSE IF WE DO, IS NO, IS
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