Mercadolibre: A Great Buy-&-Hold Growth Stock Opportunity $MELI

Summary

このビデオでは、Corey Kramerが、国際成長株に投資する戦略について話しています。特に、Marcato Libreという企業を例に挙げ、その株価が大幅に下落した後、再び上昇し始めた時期に彼が購入した経緯を説明しています。Marcato Libreは、成長が期待でき、評価が合理的であり、長期的な保有が適していると評価されています。また、そのビジネスモデルとデータの潜在力が、将来の成長につながると述べています。

Takeaways

• 😀 コアリー・クレーマーは、サイクリックルインバーズクラブのYouTubeチャンネルで、特別な株を分析しています。
• 🌐 「Marcato Libre」という国際成長株を分析し、その株はリクエストによって取り上げられました。
• 📈 コアリーは、Marcato Libreを2年近く保有しており、それがサイクリックルインバーズクラブで購入している株の典型的な例だと述べています。
• 🌟 Marcato Libreは、最近の環境下で購入している国際成長株の1つであり、その株は目立たないながらも価値があるとコアリーは考えています。
• 📊 コアリーは、2020年から2022年にかけてのIPOブームを分析し、その中から優良な成長株を見つけ出す戦略を持ちました。
• 💹 Marcato Libreは大きなビジネスであり、コアリーはそのような企業が長期にわたって安定した収益成長を遂げられると予想しています。
• 🚀 Marcato Libreは、コアリーが保有する他の株と比較して中間的なパフォーマンスを示しており、その株は長期的な保有が想定されています。
• 📉 購入後すぐに株価が30%下落したが、コアリーはそれが長期的な保有戦略であるため気にしないと述べています。
• 🌐 Marcato Libreは米国以外の企業であり、コアリーはそのような企業が多様性を持ったポートフォリオの良い追加になると考えています。
• 📝 コアリーは、Marcato Libreが現在も購入の対象であると評価し、その株の評価は適切であると述べています。

Q & A

コアリー・クレイマーはなぜMarcato Libre株を分析するビデオを作成しましたか？

コアリーは、Marcato Libreがサイクリックルインベストメントクラブで購入している国際成長株の典型例であり、リクエストがあったため、通常のS&P 500以外の個別株分析とは異なり、ビデオを作成しました。

コアリーはなぜMarcato Libre株を2年間保有していますか？

コアリーは、その株がポストパンデミック時代の環境下で購入する価値がある国際成長株のタイプであり、長期的な成長の可能性があると見なしているためです。

コアリーが所有しているMarcato Libre株は、どのような業績成長を期待していますか？

コアリーは、Marcato Libreが今後10～15年間で平均15％の利益成長を遂げられると期待しており、それが株価の評価を正当化すると考えています。

コアリーはどのようにして早期段階の成長企業を評価する戦略を開発しましたか？

コアリーは、2020年から2022年にかけてのIPOブームの中で、多くの企業が公開されたことを見たが、その中には傑出した企業もいたと洞察し、それに基づいて早期段階の成長企業を評価する戦略を開発しました。

コアリーが所有するMarcato Libre株は、どのような評価指標に基づいて購入されましたか？

コアリーは、Marcato Libre株が大きな高値から50％下落した時点で購入し、その時点での評価指標として160倍のPERを参照し、成長の可能性があると判断した上で購入しました。

コアリーはなぜMarcato Libre株を長期保有する戦略を取っていますか？

コアリーは、Marcato Libreが安定した大きなビジネスであり、長期的な成長が見込まれるため、購入後は基本的に保有し続ける「バイアンドホールド」戦略を取っています。

コアリーはどのようにして新しい投資機会を特定していますか？

コアリーは、市場の動向や企業の財務報告を定期的に監視し、また、パフォーマンスが低い銘柄をリストから外して新しい投資機会を特定しています。

コアリーはMarcato Libre株が今後どうなるかの見込みはありますか？

コアリーは、Marcato Libreが今後数年間で利益が35％成長すると予想しており、長期的な成長の可能性があると評価しています。

コアリーはどのようにして国際成長株を探していますか？

コアリーは、評価が合理的であり、市場での知名度が低いが潜在的な成長がある国際企業を探しています。また、そのような企業が主流の投資対象から外れていることも好ましいと考えています。

コアリーはMarcato Libre株を購入した時点で、どのようなリスクを意識していましたか？

コアリーは、Marcato Libre株を購入した時点で、株価がさらに下落するリスクや、利益成長が期待に達しないリスクを意識していました。しかし、長期的な成長の可能性があると判断して購入しました。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Marcato Libre株の分析

Corey Kramerは、Cyclical Investors ClubのYouTubeチャンネルでMarcato Libre株について話しています。Marcato Libreは、非S&P 500株で通常はPatreonやSeeking Alphaのフルサービスでのみ扱うが、この動画では特別に分析しています。Marcato Libreは、最近の環境下で購入している国際成長株の典型例であり、Coreyは約2年間保有しており、その分析方法を説明しています。また、Marcato Libreは大きなビジネスであり、長期的な利益成長を期待できる株のカテゴリーに分類されています。

05:01

📈 投資戦略と株の評価

Coreyは、IPOブームの後期に始まった2020年代の株を分析し、その中から優良な成長株を探しています。Marcato Libreはそのような株の一つであり、2022年の利益予想が良好で、株価は50％オフの時に購入しました。購入時には160のPERだったが、成長の可能性があるため合理的な評価だと考え、長期的な利益成長を期待しています。また、株価は購入後60％増加していると報告されており、上昇トレンドが見られると述べています。

10:01

🌟 顧客データの潜在力

Marcato Libreは大きなオンラインリテーラーであり、顧客データを活用して多角化や新ビジネスへの転換が可能と見なされています。AIの進歩により、そのようなデータの潜在力は高まり、企業は新しいトレンドに素早く対応し、競争他社を排除できるようになります。Marcato Libreは大きなビジネスでありながら、まだ成長の余地があり、米国以外の市場にも拡大する可能性があります。

15:03

📊 投資ポートフォリオの多様性

Marcato Libreは、米国の平均的な退職者が知らないブランドであり、そのような株は通常は良い価格で購入できます。Marcato Libreは、そのような株の良い例であり、長期的な保有が推奨されています。株価は現在も購入の候補であり、評価は適切であるとCoreyは述べています。また、投資ポートフォリオにこのような株を加えることで、多様性と潜在的な成長の機会を得ることができます。

Keywords

💡サイクリカルインベストメントクラブ

サイクリカルインベストメントクラブとは、ビデオの主題を掲げる投資コミュニティです。ビデオでは、コアイ・クレイマーがこのクラブのメンバー向けに、特定の個別株の分析を提供しています。このキーワードは、ビデオの中心となる投資アプローチとコミュニティの価値提案を示しています。

💡マーカトー・リブレ

マーカトー・リブレはビデオ内で分析される特定の国際成長株です。コアイ・クレイマーは、この企業について長期間保有しており、その株価の動向と潜在的な成長可能性について話します。このキーワードは、ビデオのメインテーマである個別株の分析と長期的な投資戦略に関連しています。

💡国際成長株

国際成長株とは、世界中の成長市場で利益を拡大し、投資家の関心を集める企業の株式です。ビデオでは、コアイ・クレイマーが、このような株式を探求し、その分析方法と長期的な価値を語っています。この概念は、ビデオの中心的な投資テーマと直接結びついています。

💡評価調整

評価調整とは、株価が高すぎたり低すぎたりした後に市場が行う自然な修正プロセスです。ビデオでは、マーカトー・リブレが過去に高評価から大幅に下落した後、評価が適切になったとコアイ・クレイマーが指摘しています。このキーワードは、株価の合理化と投資のタイミングに関するビデオのメッセージに関連しています。

💡買い取りと保有

買い取りと保有は、特定の個別株を購入し、長期的に保有する投資戦略です。ビデオでは、コアイ・クレイマーがこの戦略を採用し、マーカトー・リブレのような企業の長期的な成長を期待しています。このキーワードは、ビデオの中心的な投資哲学とアプローチを表しています。

💡収益成長

収益成長とは、企業が利益を増加させる能力を指します。ビデオでは、コアイ・クレイマーが、長期的な収益成長の可能性がある企業を選ぶ理由を説明しています。収益成長は、個別株の潜在的な価値と投資の成功に直接関係しています。

💡評価指標

評価指標とは、株価と企業の収益や売上などの財務指標との比率を示す数字です。ビデオでは、PE比率（純資産益率）が頻繁に言及され、コアイ・クレイマーが株価が合理化されたかどうかを判断するのに使われています。評価指標は、個別株の購入判断に不可欠なツールです。

💡パフォーマンス

パフォーマンスとは、投資が期待された収益をどのように達成したかを示す指標です。ビデオでは、マーカトー・リブレのパフォーマンスが評価され、コアイ・クレイマーがその株価が過去2年間で60%増加したと述べています。このキーワードは、投資の成果と成功の尺度を提供します。

💡市場キャップ

市場キャップとは、企業の市場価値を示す指標で、株の価格と発行済み株数の積で計算されます。ビデオでは、マーカトー・リブレの市場キャップが83億ドルであると述べられており、企業の規模と成長の可能性を示す指標とされています。

💡多角化

多角化とは、異なる業界や地域に投資を分散させることでリスクを軽減する戦略です。ビデオでは、コアイ・クレイマーが、マーカトー・リブレのような米国以外の企業への投資が多角化の利点をもたらすと語っています。このキーワードは、リスク管理とポートフォリオの構築に関するビデオのテーマに関連しています。

Highlights

Corey Kramer introduces a special stock analysis for Marcato Libre, a stock requested by viewers.

Marcato Libre is an example of international growth stocks that have potential in the current market environment.

Corey has owned Marcato Libre for almost two years, showcasing it as a typical stock he looks for in his investment strategy.

Marcato Libre is a larger business with potential for 15% average earnings growth over 15 years.

Corey discusses his growth strategy focused on post-pandemic era companies, including IPOs and SPACs.

The strategy aims to identify companies that may have been oversold, offering potential for significant returns.

Marcato Libre's purchase was made when the stock had a PE ratio of 160, which has since compressed to under 60.

Corey's investment approach is primarily Buy and Hold, with a focus on long-term growth rather than short-term valuations.

Marcato Libre's earnings have more than doubled since Corey's purchase, aligning with his strategy of valuing earnings growth over time.

The potential for Marcato Libre to achieve 20% average earnings growth over 10 years justifies its current valuation.

Corey explains the risks of PE ratio compression and how it's factored into his long-term investment decisions.

Marcato Libre's position as a larger business with a market cap of $83 billion is discussed in the context of growth opportunities.

The benefits of investing in non-US companies for diversification and potential currency advantages are highlighted.

Corey shares his views on the value of customer data and the competitive advantages it provides to companies like Marcato Libre.

Marcato Libre is identified as an under-the-radar investment, less popular among average retirees, offering potential for better deals.

Corey's strategy includes setting aside 30% of his portfolio for high-growth, potentially high-reward investments.

Marcato Libre is recommended as a long-term Buy and Hold investment, with the current valuation being on the edge of Corey's buy criteria.

Transcripts

hello everybody and welcome to the

cyclical investors Club YouTube channel

my name is Corey Kramer and today we

have kind of a special stock that I'm

going to take a look at for everybody U

Marcato Libre this one came in By

Request um down in the comment section

of one of my other articles and normally

for s for non S&P 500 stocks I keep

those exclusive to patreon or the full

cyclical investors Club service over on

Seeking Alpha but I've decided to kind

of make an ex ception for Marcato Libre

because I've been talking a lot about

buying International growth stocks in

this environment that we've been in

lately um and I've owned Marcato Libre

for a long time almost exactly two years

now and since somebody asked about it I

thought this is really a perfect example

of the type of stocks that we're we've

mostly been buying in the cyclical

investors Club um we have been buying

some actual cyclicals too

but this is kind of the type of stock

that um where I think you can pick some

value out kind of around the world in

various places that are going a little

bit under the radar but marcot Libre is

Big I've mentioned that I owned it

before in various places and so I

thought well this will be an actual good

example of like what I can show of

really what I'm looking for when I'm

looking for an international growth

stock and the types of pattern and kind

of thinking behind um the other stocks

that we're buying in the full cyclical

investors Club service so the link to

the full service will be down in the

description over on Seeking Alpha if you

join patreon at the $5 tier month

level um you can get a big discount if

you ever decideed to join the full

cyclical investors Club service so that

will be down there too and um I also

have a 25% off link for fast graphs if

anybody wants to try fast graphs they

have free trials and stuff you so you

can try it out see if you like it um and

I'm going to be using that in this video

as always um this is not individual

investing advice this is just how I

analyze stocks and this is going to be

really how I think about I'm not going

to get into the specific details of my

strategy because that is exclusive to

the service but I'm going to get you

like 80% of the way there because it's

really more

about how I'm thinking about it um the

structure the type of

strategy uh the type of approach that

I'm just generally

taking so little bit of History I'm

going to shrink this down a little

bit maybe there we go um I'm really

focused on kind of the post-pandemic

um era here or time period because we

had really kind of a IPO boom during

right after the pandemic starting in mid

2020 through like

2022 were literally thousands of IPOs

and spaxs and um other sort of companies

went public in various ways

and most of those are junk a lot of

people have figure that out now but

amongst all those thousands were some

pretty good stocks and then there were

also some good companies that were

already public like Marcato Libre they

got bit up to like really high levels

and then they crashed so the opportunity

that I saw coming I didn't even have a

growth strategy

until um uh around 2021 because I could

see that this crash was coming or likely

to come and I figured there's probably

some good companies that are going to be

good growth companies that are going to

be in this mix and I didn't really have

a strategy for early stage growth

companies I most my other strategies are

pretty

conservative um but I saw an opportunity

there that if I could come up with a

good strategy of selecting the one in

100 really good

companies um that were likely to

overshoot to the

downside um that I could potentially

really benefit from that and there were

some other Ben so really I'm trying to

capture 5x 10x type returns over the

next 10 15 years with these type of

picks now Marcato Libra is on the big

side I generally think of these in terms

of can they do 15% earnings growth on

average for 15 years in a row um and

doesn't have to be in a row but on

average over the next decade and a half

if they can do that with lots of

confidence and it's not like a small a

small cap or particularly speculative

business you know if it's pretty big

stable business um like Marcato then um

that's a kind of a one category of these

stocks and the other ones are much

smaller smaller businesses and those

ones are offer potentially bigger

returns but um also potentially bigger

losses too the a growth strategy you

have to if you're really talking about

more earlyer stage growth companies

um especially the ones that are just

came public since 2020 um you're going

to have a higher failure rate the idea

is that the winners are you get some

huge winners in there that make up for

those failures so that's kind of the

mentality behind it and then the other

mentality

is this is a Buy and Hold strategy so

and it's actually kind of nice because

so basically I set aside 30% of my

portfolio um for this particular

strategy and when those 30 positions I

take half% positions now too so I guess

technically it'd be like 60 positions

but potentially but a lot of them are 1%

positions so once those that 30% is full

then if I select a new one I take the

worst performer off of that um whatever

I'm holding I've been holding for a

couple years and I definitely have you

know five or six that are really poor

performers so haven't quite filled this

strategy out yet over the past 3 years

it's just been kind of a slow addition

um but we're getting close so before too

long when I add something new I'll be

getting rid of one of the losers as I

add it so but once the stock is

purchased unless it ends up becoming one

of the losers that gets replaced by

something new down the road um it's Buy

and Hold so I really don't

even unless it's like an accounting

thing I mean there are weird things that

come up sometimes or I made a clear

error of some kind usually some kind of

mathematical error or something um

unless it's something weird like that

it's mostly a Buy and Hold strategy I

don't I don't sell any of these based on

valuation after I buy them so once they

get bought I kind of just ignore them

and if they get overvalued I just assume

look way down the road if as long as

they keep growing you know it all work

itself out so it's it's a nice strategy

in that respect in that I have hardly

looked other than doing regular earnings

updates and so forth I haven't really

looked at Mar a libr since I bought it

but so here's what it looked like when I

bought

it um it had come off this giant high

and then it had form the bottom here

earnings were I didn't know they were

going to be this good this year in the

year in

2022 but earnings were still growing so

it looked like earnings were okay it was

just a valuation adjustment and then the

stock looked like it had made a bottom

and started to rise and actually it was

August 5th 2022 so it was about 50% off

it's high is when I bought

it but and and if you look at the

valuation at the time it traded at 160

PE

ratio

so it it wasn't like super cheap but the

growth potential was there over the long

term and usually what I assume is 20%

growth um earnings growth or Revenue

growth or whatever some kind of profit

metric um over the next 10 years is kind

of what I'm looking at so I don't really

assume much more growth than that but

typically if they can do that um the

valuation looks reasonable so up here

the valuation at 4,000 times did not

look reasonable to me um but when we got

down here it looked reasonable and all

the other chips that I look at all the

other factors I look at look good so

basically I bought it and as soon as I

bought it the stock fell like 30% or

something but um again you just it's

just a Buy and Hold I place my bet see

what happens and the overall trend even

though it initially fell down and I

certainly didn't buy it exactly at the

bottom you know is up like 60% over 2

years which is great you know like 30% a

year or something like that

and the upward trend is looks pretty

much in place so what I now I the stock

is actually still a buy um so that's

another reason why I thought I would

make a video because it's kind of right

on the borderline of of where I would

buy it right now it is a bigger business

so I don't know it's really needs to be

like a long-term thing but you can see

that from the time I bought it the

multiple was like 160 now it's only

60 um under 60 actually and earnings are

still expected to grow if we pull

forward this year like 35% a year for

the next couple years so you could see

how okay maybe they can grow 20% a year

for the next um 10 years and that would

justify a 60p

um especially if they can actually hit

these two years of like 35% growth now

the danger is eventually at some point

that PE is going to compress down to at

least 30 so you know somewhere baked in

there um you got like a 50% compression

that's going to happen but we don't know

when that's going to happen just like

when I bought it here

um the the earnings have you know more

than doubled since so it's man not only

have you gotten stock price appreciation

but the PE has compressed along with it

so that's like ultimately what you want

you want the earnings to grow quite fast

and to compress that PE for you but you

know if earnings slowed to 25% in 2025

instead of 35% that's still great stock

price would probably trade down quite a

bit at that particular time and the idea

is I just say I don't know when those

are going to happen um and I'm so I'm

just making a long-term bet and then if

it does slow down well maybe that means

they can keep a steady earnings growth

going and not super high but maybe they

can grow longer you know I just don't

try to predict that with these I just

say the elements are in place for very

long-term growth I would also say that

when you have uh when you look at like

Amazon we can see a model there where

when you get all this customer data like

from online Reta from a big online

retailer um and you have all these

eyeballs and these people that are using

your

service um there's a lot of data there

that you can do a lot of different

things with that are really hard to

predict now we have ai and so forth um

and the more of those things that you

have the more valuable that data and the

way that you can use it and the

adjustments that you can make um so

there's a lot of intangibles there in

the future that I where I really like

pretty much all platforms for that

reason the big ones you know whether it

be

so I'm long meta too but and I um you

know obviously Google's a good one

Amazon I don't own those yet but um when

you have so much money and data you can

you can maneuver pretty quickly into new

trends and things like that save off

competitors relatively easily or at

least you have a little bit of an

advantage I guess to be able to hold

that longer term rather than if you

compare it to like a

small medical device company or

something like that I mean it's just a

different type of thing I think there's

a little bit more of a moat once you get

like a big um business like marcot

libbre has but even though they're big I

mean what's their market cap like it's

even though they're big it's still only

83 billion right um what's Amazon just

for

reference I think they're in the

trillions two Trill we'll call it two

trillion so that's 20 times bigger right

so they're big but there's growth

opportunities there I also like that

it's outside of the US you know if we

get a weaker dollar at some point you

could potentially get a Tailwind for

that if nothing else you get like

diversification um so there's all these

kind of benefits I think that go along

that would be a good addition it's under

the radar of a lot most of most kind of

retire retirees kind of older like

Americans um

they are leaning more into businesses

that they're that they know that are

like domestic or it's just an S&P 500

type of a thing so if you can move and

they have a lot of money like a lot of

investable money like most of it really

um so if you can find something that's

that hasn't been picked over like a

million times that isn't like super

popular that nobody's going to sell and

give you like a cheap price on ever um

that has future growth that's a little

bit off of the mainstream like radar um

uh I mean to me that's a really good

like portfolio addition so um another

benefit so this is kind of the

quintessential example of a big bigger

business that that I like um but you can

take this pattern and if you shorten it

up a little bit you know to maybe just

before the

pandemic and you go out you can find

smaller businesses that have the same

thing where they IPO they sell off like

80% or something but and maybe they

weren't even earning money earning money

at the time but now they're maybe

they're starting to earn actually earn a

little bit of money the stock prices

maybe bottomed a little bit um it looks

like their business is pretty decent

it's maybe pretty small with a larger

adjustable Market um maybe it's outside

of the US so it has a little bit of

diversification but nothing too crazy

I've I don't I haven't been investing in

China um so when I say outside of the US

is pretty much X China for um I have a

whole video on it if you want to go look

it up you can um so but so it's not like

I'm actively necessarily looking for

outside of the US but these are the

they're they're coming up on my radar

because they're cheap like relative to

the potential growth and then I just

kind of like having that extra

diversification when I can find it it's

like a little bit of a bonus I think um

and I'm finding that they kind of fit

like a pattern every now you know to

some

degree where you can tell oh well this

isn't like a brand name everybody in the

US you know every 60-year-old in the US

knows you know it's not McDonald's Coke

Nike Disney um you know all the ones

that everybody grew up with and the

brand names that they know

Walmart um and so it's a little less

comfortable just a little less a little

bit more under the radar for just kind

of the average retiree who's looking to

invest safely you know to feel good

about their retirement these aren't the

type of stocks where they're really

aggressively kind of

looking um and so they seem to be better

deals I mean time will tell if they turn

out to actually be better deals but um

there I've definitely have some evidence

like Marcato i' I've had some losers for

sure um but Marcato Libre is not the

best performer of these growth stocks

that I've been able to find it's kind of

right in the middle of of where they are

some are you know 100% returners in a

year or two and then I have some

especially when I first started doing it

because I started buying right in here

actually a little yeah H before kind of

the bottom of this um I started getting

in a little bit early but we made some

adjustments and really since like 2020

the past like two years have been pretty

solid um a lot more big winners and a

lot fewer losers

so um so it's going pretty well and

they're still there and with the

volatility we're seeing right now or we

could even see a little bit more I think

we're going to keep seeing a few of

these opportunities I um last month or

two months ago I think we bought more

stocks I don't buy very many stocks

honestly you've seen on this channel

like one per quarter as what I've been

sharing from SP 500 but um I think I had

more in May than I had since March 2020

in a single month maybe at least since

2020 in a single month so and it wasn't

like a ton but it's like when you're not

really finding anything and then you're

starting to get like a trickle of you

know they're starting to trickle in a

little bit more you know you can you can

kind of see that that that they're out

there um so if you're interested in

checking some of those out I have a

spreadsheet that have has them all in it

so you can go look at them see which

ones look good and do some research and

see if any of them look good for you um

all right that's it uh Mar uh marcata

Libre I consider it a buy Here long-term

Buy and Hold the valuation is right on

the dot Edge right here today when I

just looked at it in my spreadsheet so I

thought and then I looked at my

whiteboard and it was next on the list

and I thought you know I'm just going to

make a video for everybody with a real

example of a real stock to show what

these where I think the most of the

value is in the market right now and so

this was a good example all right if you

found this useful hit the Subscribe

button hit the like like button if you

have a request let me know I still have

a few left on this list but I'm getting

pretty low and then I think I'm going to

start adding some new types of content

to the channel too but I just haven't

figured out exactly how I'm going to do

yet um but we'll have some fresh stuff

coming in I've I've had almost a year

now in October it'll be a year where I

90% of what I'm putting out is

individual stock analysis I really

wanted that to be the base of the

channel because I think a lot of

channels lack that there's a lot of the

more inter in stuff is always

macro but I find that the macro people

are lose people the most money most of

the time because they they don't know

how to do like a basic valuation of a

stock a lot of times um but they are

very entertaining and popular to listen

to I like listening to them and hearing

people's different views on bigger

picture things but I always feel like

what's lacking is like an actual basis

in valuation instead of just stories and

narratives so I try to flip that around

and start with the

valuation then we can talk about big

picture things and kind of layer that on

top so some of that's coming up um and

I'll see you everybody later bye