A New War in Ukraine || Peter Zeihan

Summary

In this update from Geneva Basin, Colorado, the situation in Ukraine is discussed with four main developments. The Ukrainian offensive into Russia's KK Province has caused significant Russian casualties and disrupted logistics. The sinking of Russia's last rail ferry has severed Crimea's fuel supply. Proletariansk's fuel depot is ablaze, further crippling Russian capabilities. Meanwhile, the Russian assault on the Ukrainian city of Prr is a major concern, as its fall would disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and force a multi-front defense strategy, indicating a highly dynamic and critical phase in the conflict.

Takeaways

• 🇺🇦 The Ukrainian offensive into Russia's KK Province has triggered a war of movement with heavy casualties on both sides.
• 🌉 Ukrainian forces have destroyed bridges across the S River, cutting off support for Russian forces south of the river and north of the Ukrainian border.
• 🚀 Ukrainians have brought long-range strike capabilities close to the border, targeting logistics infrastructure up to 100 miles away in the southern and western parts of Kerser Province.
• 📍 The northern front of Ukraine has moved into Russian territory, significantly changing battlefield dynamics.
• 🛳️ Ukrainians have sunk Russia's last rail ferry, disrupting the primary supply route to Crimea and affecting fuel delivery to the Crimean front.
• 🔥 A major fuel depot in Proletarskoye has been severely damaged by fire, with a third of the tanks destroyed and the rest at risk.
• 🚧 The loss of the rail ferry and the fuel depot could permanently affect the Russian supply chain for Crimea and the southern front.
• 🏙️ The city of Proletarskoye is a critical fuel depot, and its potential loss poses a significant challenge for the Russian forces.
• 🛡️ The Russian assault on the city of Prr is intense, with daily meat assaults indicating a high-priority target for them.
• 🚂 The city of Prr is a rail nexus, and its capture by the Russians would complicate Ukrainian supply efforts and require a rerouting of forces.
• 🔄 The situation is highly dynamic with potential for significant changes in the front line in the coming months, affecting the strategic balance.

Q & A

What is the current situation described in the Geneva Basin area?

The Geneva Basin area is behind the speaker, and they are standing on the crest of Geneva Mountain, discussing the developments in Ukraine.

What is the significance of the Ukrainian offensive into Russia's KK Province?

The offensive has triggered a war of movement with the Russians, resulting in heavy casualties on both sides, especially for the Russians due to the destruction of bridges across the S River, which has cut off support for their forces.

How are the Ukrainians utilizing their long-range strike capabilities?

The Ukrainians have brought their long-range missiles, mortars, and drones close to the border, launching strikes on logistics infrastructure up to 100 miles away in the southern and western parts of Kerser Province.

What impact has the Ukrainian offensive had on the northern front of Ukraine?

The northern front of Ukraine has now been relocated into Russian territory, marking a significant change in battlefield realities and potentially allowing the Ukrainians to cut infrastructure between K City and Belgrad City.

What was the importance of the rail ferry that Ukraine sunk?

The rail ferry was the primary means for Russia to supply their forces in Crimea after the Kerch Strait Bridge's cargo function was shut off. Its sinking has severely impacted Russia's ability to ship fuel to the Crimean front.

What is the current state of the fuel depot in Proletarsk, and what does it mean for the Russian forces?

The fuel depot in Proletarsk has been severely damaged by an attack, with a third of the tanks destroyed and the fire spreading. This poses a significant risk to the Russian forces' fuel supply for the Crimean front.

What is the strategic significance of the city of Proletarsk in the conflict?

Proletarsk is a major fuel depot, and its destruction could significantly hinder the Russian forces' ability to maintain their positions and operations in Crimea.

What is the situation in the city of Prr, and why is it critical for both sides?

Prr is under heavy Russian assault, with numerous attacks against Ukrainian forces. Its capture would be a major problem for the Ukrainians as it is a rail nexus, complicating their ability to concentrate forces and supplies.

How is the situation in Prr affecting the broader conflict dynamics?

The potential fall of Prr could force the Ukrainians to reroute supplies and reinforcements from multiple points, making it more difficult to maintain a cohesive defense.

What are the implications of the current conflict for the Ukrainian and Russian forces' maneuverability?

The Ukrainians have been able to maneuver freely without minefields, but the potential loss of Prr and the need to hold the front in multiple places could complicate their operations. Conversely, the Russians may be less able to defend Crimea due to fuel shortages.

What does the speaker suggest about the near future of the conflict?

The speaker suggests that the situation is very dynamic, with decisive changes in the front line expected in the coming month, possibly more than in the last couple of years.