Late Kick Live Ep 545: Chaos Is Coming | GT Stuns FSU | New JP Poll | Herbie Haters | NCAA vs Mich
Summary
TLDRIn this episode, the host discusses the unpredictability of college football, highlighting Florida State's surprising loss to Georgia Tech and its implications on team rankings. He introduces the JP Poll, a power rating model for teams, and shares early season bets on the Ramen Noodle Express. Additionally, he comments on Michigan's NCAA allegations and the impact of the upcoming Connor Stallions documentary, emphasizing the sport's ever-changing dynamics.
Takeaways
- 🏈 The speaker emphasizes the unpredictability of college football, using Florida State's loss to Georgia Tech as an example of unexpected outcomes.
- 📊 Discusses the release of an updated JP poll, a power rating system for college football teams, which has undergone changes due to recent games and insights from fall camps.
- 📈 Notes that despite Florida State's loss, the team's power rating still favors them against Georgia Tech if they were to play again, indicating the complexity of the rating system.
- 🤔 Raises questions about the ACC's playoff prospects, given Florida State's loss and potential implications for other top teams like Miami and Clemson.
- 🔑 Highlights the importance of the line of scrimmage play and running game, pointing out that Georgia Tech's dominance in these areas was a key factor in their win.
- 🎥 Mentions a collaboration with an unnamed individual, hinting at a potential announcement related to game commentary or media coverage.
- 🚨 Warns against drawing conclusions too quickly, echoing the sentiment that 'the wise man makes observations, the foolish man draws conclusions'.
- 📝 Discusses the potential impact of the new expanded playoff system on the college football landscape, including the possibility of a Group of Five team with a lower ranking making it into the playoffs.
- 🎓 Reflects on the role of academics and recruiting in the success of college football programs, particularly focusing on Georgia Tech's potential.
- 📱 Encourages viewers to follow on social media for updates and to download the FanDuel app for potential benefits, showcasing a partnership between the show and the betting platform.
- 🔄 Ends with a reminder of the fluid nature of the JP poll, indicating that it will change throughout the season as games are played and new information becomes available.
Q & A
What is the main message the speaker wants the audience to take away regarding college football?
-The speaker emphasizes the unpredictability and excitement of college football, urging fans to come back with an open heart and mind, and to remember that early observations in the season should not be hastily turned into conclusions.
What was the outcome of the Florida State vs. Georgia Tech game mentioned in the script?
-Georgia Tech won the game against Florida State with a score of 24 to 21, which was unexpected as Florida State was the double-digit favorite.
What is the 'Ramen Noodle Express' presented by FanDuel?
-The 'Ramen Noodle Express' is a segment of the show where the speaker provides betting picks for upcoming college football games, presented in partnership with FanDuel.
What is the significance of the JP Poll mentioned by the speaker?
-The JP Poll is a power rating system used by the speaker to evaluate college football teams, which is updated throughout the season based on team performances and other factors.
What does the speaker suggest about the Florida State team's performance and expectations?
-The speaker suggests that Florida State's performance was disappointing given the expectations set by various media reports and insiders, indicating a potential disconnect between the team's self-assessment and its actual performance.
What is the speaker's view on the importance of the line of scrimmage play in football?
-The speaker believes that the line of scrimmage play is crucial in determining the outcome of a football game, as it can significantly impact both the running game and the defense.
What is the 'padlock stat' referred to in the script?
-The 'padlock stat' is a specific game statistic highlighted by the speaker that, if known before the game, could give a strong indication of how the game would turn out.
What does the speaker think about the role of coaching staff in a team's performance?
-The speaker implies that the coaching staff may not have a firm grasp on the team's capabilities if they misjudge their strengths, as seemed to be the case with Florida State's defensive line and running game.
What is the significance of the speaker's mention of 'wishcasting' in the context of college football?
-The speaker uses 'wishcasting' to describe a situation where media or insiders start making optimistic predictions without solid information, potentially painting an unrealistic picture of a team's capabilities.
What is the speaker's opinion on the potential impact of the new expanded playoff and the G5 auto bid?
-The speaker speculates that the new expanded playoff and G5 auto bid could lead to unexpected outcomes, such as a team ranked in the 20s making it to the college football playoff, which would be a significant shift from previous years.
Outlines
🏈 College Football Season Return and Week Zero Warning
The speaker welcomes back the audience to the college football season, highlighting the return of fans and the importance of approaching the season with an open heart and mind. A reference is made to a past mentor, MIMO, who emphasized the difference between observation and hasty conclusions. The setting is a vibrant downtown Nashville on August 25th, 2024, with a game between Florida State and Georgia Tech. The speaker alludes to a sense of impending chaos in the season and discusses the release of an updated JP poll, which is unusual before the first game has been played, reflecting the unexpected performance of Florida State.
📊 Analyzing Georgia Tech's Surprising Victory Over Florida State
This paragraph delves into the game's statistics, emphasizing Georgia Tech's significant rushing advantage and the disparity in the second half. The speaker discusses the pre-game confidence in Florida State's running game and defensive front, questioning whether the media and insiders were misled or if there was a disconnect within the Florida State program itself. The unexpected outcome is considered an alarm for the program, and the speaker suggests that the reality of the team's capabilities may have been overestimated.
🤔 Contemplating the Future of Florida State's Football Program
The speaker ponders the implications of Florida State's loss and what it means for their season. They discuss the potential for both overrated favorites and underrated underdogs in college football, using the game's outcome as an example. The speaker also praises Georgia Tech's coach Brent Key and speculates on whether the program could become a dominant force in college football, given its location and potential for recruiting.
🔄 Post-Game Reflections and the Impact on the ACC Standings
The speaker reflects on the post-game reactions, including fans feeling misled by the media and insiders' optimistic predictions about Florida State. They discuss the immediate effects of the game on the ACC standings, with Clemson and Miami now favored to win the conference. The speaker also mentions their upcoming collaboration with an unnamed individual, hinting at a potentially groundbreaking development.
🎯 The Importance of Line of Scrimmage Play and Its Implications
The focus shifts to the critical aspect of line of scrimmage play, which was a standout feature in the Georgia Tech and Florida State game. The speaker uses 'padlock stats' to illustrate the dominance of Georgia Tech in this area, suggesting that Florida State's performance was alarming and not in line with pre-season expectations. The discussion highlights the need for a collective effort from Florida State to improve and the importance of not resting on past laurels.
🤝 Sponsor Highlights and Engagement with the Audience
The speaker acknowledges their sponsors, particularly Quick Trip, for their support and the opportunity to give away free gas to the audience. They encourage the audience to download Quick Trip's app for potential savings and share their positive experiences working with the sponsor. The speaker also teases upcoming game analyses and discussions about potential chaos in the college football season.
🏟️ The Unpredictability of College Football and Its Early Upsets
The speaker discusses the unpredictable nature of college football, using the Florida State loss as a reminder that anything can happen, especially early in the season. They reflect on the impact of upsets on the perception of team strength and the potential for further chaos in the season, hinting at various scenarios that could disrupt the expected outcomes.
🛑 The Potential for Chaos in the College Football Season
The speaker speculates on various scenarios that could lead to chaos in the college football season, such as unexpected performances by quarterbacks, the potential for a non-traditional team to dominate, or the impact of an expanded playoff system. They consider the implications of these scenarios for the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 conferences.
🎓 The Impact of the NCAA's Notice of Allegations on Michigan
The speaker discusses the NCAA's notice of allegations against Michigan, timed to coincide with the release of a Netflix documentary about the program. They consider the potential outcomes, from financial settlements to more severe penalties, and the impact on Michigan's reputation and performance. The speaker also addresses the audience's reactions to the situation.
🔄 The NCAA's Strategic Timing and Its Effects on Michigan's Reputation
The speaker contemplates the NCAA's strategic timing in releasing the notice of allegations, suggesting that it may be an attempt to procedurally punish Michigan without causing lasting damage to the program. They discuss the potential for the NCAA to leak information or use the documentary's release to apply pressure, while also considering the network's influence in protecting the asset that is Michigan football.
📊 Power Ratings and the Fluidity of College Football Rankings
The speaker introduces the JP poll, a power rating system that reflects the fluctuating nature of college football teams' strengths. They explain the system's basis in data rather than emotion and discuss the preseason numbers, emphasizing the potential for significant changes as the season progresses.
🤔 The Role of Media and Public Perception in College Football
The speaker reflects on the role of media and public perception in shaping opinions about college football teams. They share personal experiences of being accused of bias and consider whether such accusations are valid. The speaker also addresses the audience's reactions to their commentary and the importance of understanding the complexities of the sport.
🎙️ Changes to 'Lake Kick Live' and Future Announcements
The speaker announces changes to the show's name and structure, moving away from 'Lake Kick Live' to 'Josh Pat's College Football Show.' They discuss new agreements with CBS and the acquisition of full ownership of their channel and podcast feed. The speaker also teases further announcements for the upcoming week.
📅 Final Thoughts and Sign-off
The speaker concludes the session with thanks to the audience, the show's team, and a sign-off, indicating that the show will continue with its regular schedule and format.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡College football
💡Off season
💡JP poll
💡Power ratings
💡Georgia Tech
💡Florida State
💡ACC
💡Ramen Noodle Express
💡FanDuel
💡NCAA
💡Herb Street
Highlights
Welcome back to college football with a cautionary note to approach the season with an open heart and mind.
Introduction of the 'Ramen Noodle Express', a segment for games to bet on throughout the season.
Analysis of Florida State's performance and its implications on the team's ranking and expectations.
Discussion on the importance of not hastily drawing conclusions from week zero performances.
Release of an updated JP poll reflecting changes in team power ratings before the season even begins.
The impact of media hype and its potential misrepresentation of a team's capabilities, as seen with Florida State.
Georgia Tech's surprising victory over Florida State and what it says about the team's strength and potential.
The significance of line of scrimmage play and its role in Georgia Tech's win.
The potential for a 12-team playoff and the implications of an auto bid for the G5 conference.
Scenarios that could cause chaos in the college football landscape, including unexpected team performances.
The possibility of the Big 12 not living up to its reputation for chaos and what that could mean for the playoff picture.
Concerns about load management and resting starters late in the season due to auto bids in the playoff structure.
The announcement of a new collaboration with an undisclosed partner, hinting at a groundbreaking development.
The presentation of the first two picks on the Ramen Noodle Express for week one of college football.
A reflection on the nature of fan passion and its downsides, such as booing during broadcasts.
The change in the show's name to 'Josh P's College Football Show' and the announcement of new ownership and direction.
Transcripts
I want you all to be careful I want you
to have fun welcome back I know a lot of
you were back you um frankly you
selfishly recognize the off season but
that's okay we've been here the whole
time but it's okay you can come back now
a lot of folks are coming back to the
college football table but I want you to
come back with an open heart and an open
mind and I give you the same warning
that mimo used to give me all the time
mimo when speaking about week zero
actually week zero didn't exist in
meal's time meal when speaking about
week one used to always say and I'm
going to say again the wise man makes
observations the foolish man draws
conclusions we are jam-packed as
jam-packed as we could ever be we are
high top a picturesque downtown
Nashville Tennessee Sunday night August
25th the year of ourl 2024 Florida State
wow Georgia Tech
wow same word very different meaning
there uh do you think that this season
is giving off some pretty big chaos
Vibes we're not even into week one yet
but already I'm getting the sense we
kind of found out some stuff about
Florida State the only difference
between Florida State and several of our
other top 10 top 20 top 25ish teams as
we're about to find out about them
there's some posers out there amongst us
and who knows who they are well
hopefully we'll try and pick through it
tonight I got an updated JP poll
unprecedented I am releasing a second
edition of the JP poll before 98% of you
have even played a game but I thought it
was necessary because one of our top 10
teams was not and that's the way it goes
power ratings are not rankings but
sometimes you can fall pretty quickly
down the power ratings if you um well if
you do what Florida state did yesterday
so I've got that I've got two not one
two additions to week one's Ramen Noodle
Express tonight welcome back to the
ramen noodle Express presented by
FanDuel now they're watching us in
Oxford Mississippi they're watching us
in Silsby Texas Spring Hill Florida
Seattle Washington I would recommend you
guys just Mosey on over to the socials
and make sure you're following me at
Lake kick Josh you know some news broke
yesterday some Rumblings turned into
reports that um I'll be collaborating
with someone tomorrow I believe we're
going to record it later tonight and
look I don't want to drop any names I
mean you'll probably hear him with Gus
Johnson this weekend calling whichever
game fox has I don't want to drop any
names but I think it I think it could be
pretty groundbreaking and so that'll be
fun you find these things out if you're
following on Instagram or Twitter at
Lake kick Josh okay let's dive into the
show um I want to be responsible this is
our first game breakdown of the year so
I want to be very responsible the way we
do it around here is a little different
so Georgia Tech what does this say Colin
24 Florida State 21 so the double digit
favorite seols go down in Ireland it
counts even if it's in another country
you got to have your head on a swivel
this time of year uh there are beliefs
and then there are just these working
theories and I've always been of the
opinion that even though we go through
all of spring and we go through all of
Summer and you go through media days and
you go through fall Camp the best you
can hope to have on these teams are
really these loose sets of working
theories for instance there was a strong
working Theory out there in the college
football ether that am I reading this
piece of paper right Florida state had
the best defensive line in the country
well that was one way to look at it the
other way to look at it is the view that
Georgia Tech had yesterday and they said
no I H not so fast this was a Greg
Maddox special of a game for those of
you who weren't around Greg Maddox used
to routinely get him out of there in
under two hours and then make a 930 uh
dinner time if they were on the road or
whatever Greg Maddox wasted no time Greg
Maddox didn't even seek the strikeout
Greg Maddox wanted you putting the ball
in play the first two or three pitches
of theat CA that just gets the game over
quicker that gets him back to the Dugout
quicker listen to this our first paper
pop stat of the Year 14 total drives in
this game seven drives were four plus
minutes only two drives were less than
two minutes now I'm about to hit you
with the first padlock stat of the Year
FSU in the final 21 minutes and 19
seconds of this
game one drive final 21 minutes 619 to
go in the third quarter from that point
on FSU touch the ball one time the rest
of the game 67 runs 43 passes in this
game so the most glaring aspect of this
to me was line of scrimmage play I think
most of you who watch this game you
think the same thing you oh man Georgia
Tech really put him on skates yeah yeah
that's part of what stood out but that
wasn't the alarming part that was just a
football game we'll see that happen
every week this year to varying degrees
uh you want a padlock stat number two
and then I'll tell you what alarmed me
padlock stat number two Georgia Tech
imagine seeing this stat for those of
you who are new around here the padlock
stat is if I were to tell you this stat
the day before the game you'd pretty
well know how the game was going to turn
out Georgia Tech 190 to 98 rushing
Advantage Georgia Tech 89 to 20 89 to 20
they outrushed Florida state in the
second half
um that wasn't supposed to happen now
here's the alarming part those are just
stats that's just a football game the
alarming part is the closer you got to
this Florida State program over the past
last month the more confident folks
sounded about their running game and the
more confident folks sounded about their
impenetrable defensive front maybe my
word not theirs but we heard Pete thill
on game day yesterday you think P Pete
thill didn't make that up Pete thill was
regurgitating Intel that was given to
him probably from inside the program
folks around the FSU program folks on
the FSU beat folks working for different
team websites they were getting drug
over the hlls last night their members
in some cases asking for refunds why
because they felt misled because a lot
of folks who report on this team misled
me you told me that we were going to be
good and then I saw us and we weren't
and so this could be one of two things I
have my suspicions as to which one it is
sometimes a collective media beat around
a team will just get caught wishcasting
wishcasting is absent any real
information you just start making it up
as you go and you end up painting a
picture of a team that ends up further
and further away from what the reality
of that team is now the reason I don't
think that's what this was was because
most time if coaches if they're any
anywhere near smart enough to Reign it
in if they start to sense that the hype
bubble around their program is getting
too big they'll go pop it themselves
they'll read an article they'll look at
a gallery on a message board they'll go
look at a a segment we do whatever the
case may be and they'll reach out and
say Hey you might want to pump the break
now pump it just a little bit you're
going to make me look terrible because
you're going to build us up to be
something we aren't and then week one's
going to come and we're going to
disappoint everyone and folks are going
to be mad at me because of the hype you
built so sure the folks around Florida
State and the media beat there they
could have been wishcasting Pete thill
could have been wishcasting he could
have just decided on the flight over to
Dublin you know I'm going to go on
national TV and I'm going to say I think
this team's got the best defensive line
in the country yeah that's one Theory
the other Theory the one I happen to
prescribe crib
to is they were just regurgitating Intel
that people inside the program gave them
now that is a little more alarming
because that means folks inside Florida
State thought they had the best
defensive line in the country folks
inside Florida state folks who you know
do football for a living those folks
thought that they were going to dominate
UPF front those folks thought that line
of scrimmage and Run game were going to
be their bread and butter here and if
DJ's not great if DJ can't stretch the
field vertically that's okay we'll just
Rock fight this thing early and then
we'll we'll give our offense time to
round into forum and that is a little
more alarming because that paints a
picture of a coaching staff that may not
have a firm grasp on what the football
team was I don't know which the case is
I just know collectively a lot of folks
got Hoodwinked on this and um I'm not as
close to the program obviously as like a
lot of other people were talking about
but even I watched it and I said whoo
this does not at all match up with what
I heard and what I thought I should
expect here so the other side to that is
maybe maybe it's not quite as bad as it
seems because I was texting back and
forth with uh Danny canel yesterday he's
still alive um I'm not going to go as
far as to say he's okay but I can
confirm he's still with us this is not a
Daniel canel Memorial show just yet but
I was texting back and forth with him
and look honestly it's my job to nurse
him back to health emotionally in times
like these and so I did say Daniel now
one of the big mistakes that people make
I I didn't necessarily mean this but one
of the big mistakes people make is
sometimes when there's an upset early in
the year everyone talks about how the
favorite was overrated but hardly anyone
takes time to acknowledge maybe the
underdog was underrated maybe Georgia
Tech's just a whole lot better I think
there's a healthy dose of both in play
right now but I will say um solid solid
golf clap for Brent ke and Georgia Tech
we've always asked the show we've always
the question on this show who's who's
going to figure out how to harness
Atlanta Texas A&M is the biggest
sleeping giant program in the sport I've
always thought Arizona State's up there
and there are a couple of other North
Carolina like if North Carolina ever got
right I think they could be a really
really solid program Georgia Tech's
pretty high on that list they always
have been for me I grew up in Georgia
grew up hours south of Atlanta always
had a I thought a pretty good read on
the program I thought uh Jeff for
example I thought there was a half
decent chance he'd come in there and
he'd do that a lot of stuff happened
that I didn't necessarily expect and it
didn't end up being Jeff Collins so now
um Brent key takes over and what if I
told you well first off we have a
Post-It pop here Boom the first Post-it
pop of the Year Georgia Techs all of a
sudden 5 and0 versus ranked ACC teams
under Brent key hello that stat kind of
snuck up on a lot of you I'm not done uh
they've completely remade the program
most of you found that that out for the
first time yesterday they had listen to
this now they had five scoring drives
all of last year that were 10 plays and
six plus minutes or longer all of 2023
they had five scoring drives that were
10 plays six minutes or longer they had
three of them yesterday three of them in
one afternoon so who can harness Atlanta
well maybe it's maybe it was Brink key
after all harnessing Atlanta just simply
means do you understand how inexcusable
it is that we for a long time have had a
major power four power five program at
the intersection of the SEC and the ACC
which is Atlanta Georgia right there in
the heart of the hottest geographical
recruiting bed in the South um and it's
been irrelevant Georgia Tech hasn't even
been the biggest name in their own City
in college football for a long time I
always looked at it and I said why and
all people could ever tell me is well
academics and I I used to always tell
them um you're you're telling me that's
the only place I mean this is right
smack dab in the middle of David Shaw
dominating at Stanford by the way you're
telling me that's the only place it's a
little tough to get into you're telling
me that you can't find 20 to 25 kids any
given year that are qualified to get
into Georgia Tech that can also do a few
things on the football field I always
thought that was stupid it is it has
been stupid for a long time so George
Tech man let's see what they do this
year I'm going to show you where they
are in the JP poll a little bit later
where does Florida State go from here is
a question that I'm not asking tonight
only because I've seen it asked
everywhere else today so it's semantics
I'm not I'm not um not taking a shot at
anyone but I want to ask you guys now
who are big expansionists out there do
you really believe in this 12 team
playoff or not CU some of the same folks
out there who sold me on one game not
being the end of the world for a team
because you can afford to lose are
painting it as the end of the world
because Florida State lost Florida State
may lose four games this year for all I
know or they may never lose again for
all I know but what's next for Florida
State well you get back to work and you
go play Boston College as best I can
tell that's what's next for Florida
State it's not like they lost a boxing
match and their next one's a year and a
half from now it's it's not like they
had their soul sucked out of them well
they better not have but everybody's
piling on DJ ouang for being basically
the quarterback he's been his entire
career that was the least surprising
thing to me yesterday that that DJ OU
angal didn't take over the game he's not
a guy who takes over games uh he is a
guy who probably needs help from his
Supporting Cast and didn't get enough of
it and look if I didn't know any better
and I watched that game yesterday it's
almost like watching that Bama team back
in 2021 where Bryce young had to go
herob ball on every play because it
seems like after the ball gets snapped
everyone just Waits on him to do
something well that this is not the cat
to do that so it's going to have to be a
collective effort there at Florida State
but
man three tackles for loss and zero
sacks for that defensive front meanwhile
Georgia Tech racks up seven tackles for
loss they're that much better than you
are you serious you got to have some
pride in that defensive line room it it
takes more it takes more than just going
into spring and then everyone writing
positive articles about you and then you
just kind of surf it's like ride a wave
into the season the rents due every day
you don't get to do some things and then
rest on those Laurels you guys haven't
done anything by the way you're not last
year's team you haven't done anything so
you got a spear on the side of your
helmet cuz they thought you were good
enough to wear
it that's not how football works like
that's not how being a big-time team at
Florida State works so now the ACC
picture just to give you some updated
odds courtesy of our friends at FanDuel
Clemson is now favored to win this
conference Miami is right on their heels
second Florida State and NC State are
tied for having the third best odds and
Florida State just lost conference game
and Louisville and Virginia Tech are
what one two 3 4 fifth and sixth
respectively uh Rett Lashley and the
boys barely escaped Nevada last night
with a win they're at plus 1200 so now
all a sudden one two three four five six
we got two four we got seven teams plus
12200 are better odds we got six teams
in these singled digigit odds which just
means the ACC all of a sudden looks like
a Richard man's version of the Big 12
and in a sense that you got a bunch of
teams that perception could make a move
I also thought Brad Crawford had a
really good point today and he pointed
out that Florida State's got a
conference loss now so down the road
they don't play Virginia Tech they don't
play NC State so both of those teams
could lose a game as long as they beat
Georgia Tech and both of them play
Georgia Tech they'd have a tiebreaker
over Florida State just to give you an
idea of the eightball that Florida State
kind of put themselves behind now
Florida State wins every one of their
remaining games they'll go to the AC
championship game can they win those
games what are they going to look like
against Boston College we shall see we
are going to be in Gainesville Florida
this I'll get down there Friday I think
wo it's red in here cane Vibes Colin wow
I should we should get the Flames so I'm
going to be in Gainesville and I'm going
to be there courtesy of quick trip
because the whole new Saturday tour is
powered by quick trip and I know a lot
of you are watching right now like we
got five or 6 thousand folks watching
live a lot of you are new we do this
every week of every college football
season now Quick Trip has hopped on
board as our presenting sponsor for this
but I go
to most of the time the biggest game in
the country every time the game I choose
to go to every week and so we try and
get to as many of them as we can we're
going to be down there Friday uh Friday
night lines will emanate from
Gainesville in some hotel room somewhere
in Florida this Friday night more on
that later but we're looking forward to
this we have given away dozens and
dozens and dozens of gallons multiple
tanks Tai I guess the plural of Tanks of
free gas this week alone you know how
fun that is when you partner with a
major gas station Corporation and they
just say just go give away a bunch of
gas what are the rules there are no
rules just give away the gas really well
I've had fun with that and a lot of you
guys have too now my advice download
their app download their app because
it's going to help you even if I don't
give you free gas it's going to lower
the cost of your gas anyway there's a QR
code on the screen right now but you can
just go download their app on your own
if you're not watching if you're
listening on podcast uh quick Trip's
been awesome to work with it's almost
like one of our staffers left us went to
quick trip and then immediately
partnered with us that's the kind of
synergy we've had with them that's been
fun and the season hasn't really even
started yet so we're looking really
forward to getting on the road with them
this fall meanwhile speaking of this
fall yesterday fairly chaotic I mean I
think a lot of you were at least
surprised if not outright shocked by
what you saw so Colin here's a good
endpoint for you Florida state fall into
Georgia Tech double- digigit favorite
not the biggest upset we've ever seen
But since it was the first thing you saw
this year I think it grabbed a lot of
You by the shoulders and just violently
shook you and you reminded you that this
is college football doesn't really
matter what your preview magazine says
and by the way I've got I've got pick
six previews right here in front of me
thank you Brett doesn't matter even what
that says uh it it matters that anything
could happen in this sport especially
early on so I got the thinking okay
Florida State we've already seen them
surely there'll be more upsets in week
one surely there'll be a whole lot more
chaos how chaotic could this season be
see a lot of you start re me included
not just a lot of you a lot of us watch
that Florida State upset and it's not
just Florida state gets beat it's
Florida State got beat is that the last
time they're going to lose this year
Florida State got beat wow who's the
favorite in the ACC now Florida State
got beat by Georgia Tech how good could
Georgia Tech be so there's this big
ripple effect off of everything that
happens in this sport some more chaotic
than other and I'm asking myself what
are the real chaos pivot Points this
year what are the things that if they
happened it would just blow the entire
sport up and we'd be on the fast track
to 2007
2.0 if you don't know look it up kids so
I got to thinking and I've got some
scenarios here but I'd love to hear from
you guys as well uh there is this chance
since we have the new expanded playoff
and there's an auto bid for the G5 you
know everyone's everyone's record and
everyone when they project it me
including I put Memphis in there I had
Memphis going like 11-1 or something
like that and I thought they'd get in
over an undefeated Liberty but hey what
if it doesn't happen like that what if
the highest ranked G5 conference champ
is ranked in the 20s but they get a spot
just because some rule says they get a
spot now that sounds crazy it's not
crazy at all uh last year Liberty at the
end of the year was the highest ranked
G5 conference champ they were 23rd so if
if nothing else besides last year gets
copied and pasted here we're going to
have a team ranked in the 20s put in the
college football playoff just because
someone said they deserve a shot to Lane
the year before number 16 they're in so
yeah there could be a situation where
someone's ranked eighth and they get in
and it makes perfect sense there could
also be a situation where someone's
ranked 24th and they get in and it's at
that point you guys look around and
realize oh that's what that means that's
what the G5 Auto bid means so that's the
that's the first thing at the end of the
year that happen but I'm thinking like
what if the ACC loses more week one
games so Florida State lost to Georgia
Tech but then we get into week one this
coming week we'll predict these games
Tuesday night Miami goes to Florida it's
a really big game for the ACC uh Clemson
plays Georgia what if the ACC goes 0
and2 there what if by the time the dust
settles on week one Florida State Miami
and Clemson all have losses
now that doesn't derail your conference
Championship hopes in fact these two
Clemson and Miami don't even play
conference games in week one but what
we'd be talking about already before
week two even gets here we'd be talking
about how the ACC is only going to be
able to get one team in the playoff and
it's just I I rub my temples already
thinking about how we're talking about
the playoff and who how many conference
Spots You're going to have um couldn't
be me but it may be so that could happen
but also hey hey in the meantime the
conference race would be wide open
you're looking at the odds to win this
thing again this year
Louisville Virginia Tech NC State SMU
would be even more in the thick of it
and that's before we know what Georgia
Tech does Syracuse floating around out
there with one of the most workable
schedules this year that right there if
we have Miami and or but especially if
we have Miami and Clemson fall in week
one and then Tennessee plays NC State
the next week uh that could be really
really bad really really quickly or it
could be a huge huge like momentum shift
for the ACC if they win them quarterback
play in the Big 10 I'll tell you what
would cause a true chaos situation what
if the quarterbacks just aren't good in
the Big 10 this year I'm talking about
all of them I'm talking about what if
Will Howard is average at best at Ohio
State and we're all watching them play
and it's one of the most talented teams
we've ever seen except it's very obvious
the relative weak link is quarterback
and we're all waiting for the
inevitability that they need to win a
shootout in the playoffs and it's not
there what if we have that what if Kade
mamera is what most folks expect him to
be and nothing more at Iowa what if Alex
orgy is average and nothing more at
Michigan Dylan Gabriel at Oregon Dylan
Gabriel I have a hard time picturing him
not having a good year but what if Dylan
Gabriel's the kind of guy where you're
watching him and Ohio State goes up
there in week five or week six and that
secondary just shuts him down and you
figure well this is a guy who's going to
rack up a lot of stats but is he really
going to be there at the end of the day
what if all that happens well a couple
of things number one it would um it
would probably put a a pretty low
ceiling on the big 10's odds comp post
season but number two I didn't mention
USC for a reason Lincoln Riley is going
to get good quarterback play always has
always will so there is no world where
to me Miller Moss is bad Miller Moss is
well below expectations so they may not
be able to stop molasses in December
like that's what remains to be seen
about USC but if the rest of the
conference is down at the quarterback
position and Lincoln Riley's USC is not
then that's how USC is in the Big 10
Championship picture that's how USC
could all of a sudden boom I mean like
Tyler van djk is at Wisconsin what if
will or what if Drew all does not take
any kind of Next Step whatsoever at Penn
State all of this is is for seeable like
that could actually happen and the other
one is Nebraska Nebraska what if what if
Matt rule in the midst of a lot of
mediocrity pulls a really good freshman
year out of Dylan riola that is chaotic
in the Big 10 what if we go to the
SEC and we look at all these playoff
odds and we look at the rankings and the
JP poll included which is not a ranking
and they're all these SEC teams up there
what if none of these SEC teams are
Elite that would be chaotic what if
Georgia's really not all that much
compared to Georgia teams in the past
upfront what what if they get bitten by
how inexperienced they are in their
secondary what if that happens what if
for example LSU really is not improved
defensively uh what if Jaylen milro does
not mesh with that kayin debor offense
what if injuries test Alabama's depth
early and it's just not there at
especially in the secondary on
defense a lot of a lot of wh ifs there
that could actually happen you know
Texas at running back what if that
really is a terminal flaw a flaw in the
overall balance and functionality of
their
offense well then you have a recipe for
a couple of things happening you have
the next tier of teams that could easily
jump up in the mix you know like I
didn't mentioned Tennessee there well if
some of those teams are down and
Tennessee just is what you expect them
to be you know they pop against NC State
early they all of a sudden inject
themselves in the conversation Miami
against Florida what if Florida ends up
winning that thing no one's going to
expect anything from Florida because of
the schedule but Florida could at least
be a nightmare for other teams to play
what if Texas A&M beats Notre Dame by 13
in week one and all of a sudden
everyone's saying Mike Elco a contender
well that could happen the other thing
is we're going to know pretty quickly
you know you you were watching Florida
State
yesterday and it's a closer game than
you expect and maybe you're sitting
there live betting the game and you
still you expect Florida State to pull
away but it's just not happening and
you're sitting there you're second
guessing everything you thought you knew
about about this team that early in the
year well what if you're watching Bama
versus Wisconsin in like week three and
you're already questioning Alabama what
if the week before Texas is at Michigan
and Texas has got 12 points on the board
late in the third quarter and they're
just getting stoned what if Clemson is
in a dog fight with Georgia in the
fourth quarter and that one's really
ugly and it's like 23
all then all of the sudden everyone is
looking and saying well maybe there's
not a big gap between any one of these
teams in the rest of that field and
that's how Missouri's shark fin just
gets bigger and bigger offshore that's
how old misss shark fin just gets bigger
and bigger offshore Old Miss shark fin
actually comes on land
sometimes that would be chaotic in the
SEC and then uh the the conference that
is known for chaos the actual chaos path
in the Big 12 would be what if there
isn't a whole bunch of it what if
instead of of the usual eight or nine
Team Deep League of teams capable of
winning it you're looking at the FanDuel
Lodge right now we got to go all the way
down to Texas Tech 2 four 6 eight we got
nine teams with plus 1,800 odds are
better to win the thing well what if
Kansas State separates themselves Utah
separates themselves and let's just pick
one more TCU there's a world TCU is
extremely underrated by the way I had
talked about him all summer and I'm mad
about it because we got him as a top 30
team in in the JP poll and I haven't
spoken a word about him so there's a
world where Kansas State Utah and TCU
could all go 11-1 or 12-0 cuz they don't
all play each other so what if that were
to happen because that's not what anyone
expects what we expect is a jumbled mess
and an inferior conference and you get
one team which is your conference champ
in the playoff but what if that's not
the case what if all of a sudden we look
and we say no there's there's three
teams actually and they keep winning
every week you remember a couple of
years ago for example you never would
have thought a team could afford to lose
the Big 12 championship game and still
make it in the playoff but they did TCU
did TCU didn't win the conference uh
Kansas state did and then TCU still had
a good enough resume where they get in
so um what if this year you get down the
line and you're thinking all of a sudden
wow the Big 12 could have an at large
bid here maybe the Big 12 gets a couple
of teams in because instead of a
convoluted MCH yes there was some
separation which may not be great for
entertainment sake but it's great for
the conference's viability of getting
more than one team in is the reputation
already baked in a lot of folks have
already convinced themselves the Big 12
is getting one team in well does the
committee feel that
way could there be chaos elsewhere that
makes it even more obvious that we got
some pretty clean resumes here in the
Big 12 um and then there's this other
nightmare scenario for everyone this
isn't even chaos this is a nightmare to
me because I'm a regular season guy guy
over the
playoff there is it's got to be like a a
specific situation but there are some
situations out there where some really
uncomfortable conversations about load
management happens late in the year and
resting starters happens late in the
year now I will admit to you number one
I hate this conversation number two I
think it's unlikely to happen number
three it's not impossible let me paint
you a couple of
scenarios
so let's say
you have a team that begins and ends
their season with non-conference games
USC is a good example Clemson is a good
example so USC and Clemson uh USC plays
LSU week one Clemson plays Georgia week
one they're both dogs in the game so
they could both lose they could both be
0 and one but that's okay because it's
not a conference game all right so then
let's say USC and Clemson start off 0
And1 but they both go through their
regular season they lose one more game
it's a conference game they lose one
more game but they're good enough to
where they get to the end of the road
they don't play conference games in the
final week of the year so they know
they've got a trip to the conference
title game locked up all right and
especially in Clemson's case let's say
the accc's down this
year so they go into the South Carolina
game they're already a two- loss team
and before they even go to South
Carolina they know their only shot of
making the playoff is is the next week
winning the conference title game
doesn't even matter because the only
shot they have is the auto bid they
would get from winning the conference
otherwise they're not going to be in how
do they handle the South Carolina game I
know what you guys are thinking to
yourselves up in South Carolina or over
in South Carolina you're thinking this
would never matter in a in a rivalry
game like this the sanctity and
integrity of that rivalry game is worth
more than it is to me I agree with you
is it worth more than that to head
coaches is it worth more than that to
people with incentives in their contract
is it worth more to universities that
know they stand to substantially
financially gain from punching their
ticket to the postseason winning a
conference title Etc it is it is an
outlier of a scenario but if you don't
think that you could have a a what would
it be a 9 and2 Clemson I'm using Clemson
as an example 9 and2 Clemson and they're
going into the South Carolina game and
you already know regardless of the
outcome of that game your postseason
hopes are riding on the next week
because you're already in a watered down
ACC looking at a situation where only
the conference Champ's going to get in
there is no at llarge Hope for you you
could you could beat Clem you could beat
South Carolina into a coma if you go
lose a third game even if it's your
conference title game you're not going
to get in how you handling your rotation
there for the South Carolina game uh
Utah Utah goes to UCF the last week of
the regular season what if what if Utah
already has a spot in the Big 12
championship game locked up and
everyone's already come to realize the
Big 12 is going to get one spot in the
playoff it's going to be for the
conference champ do they rest starters
on the road even if it's conference game
if they know they're already locked in
it's irrelevant totally irrelevant
so uh we're in a situation now where we
get Auto bids and that's how we
determined seeding and that's how we
determined first round buys and doesn't
matter if you got six losses somehow if
you want a conference you get in that
could create some really interesting and
compromised positions for head coaches
at the end of the road hope it doesn't
happen could cause chaos though Academy
Sports and Outdoors not known for chaos
they are known for well everything else
let me tell you what this company's done
for me pretty much everything they bring
the show to you free of charge however
because of Academy Sports and Outdoors
and standing in line there I was
reminded that Big League 2 still exists
I used to survive on that stuff I used
to watch like Will Clark former
Mississippi State Bulldog playing for
San Francisco and he have that that huge
Chew in the side of his mouth and I'd
say Dad can I get some and say no you're
six you can't have tobacco products and
we we don't use it anyway kids but you
can have big leag CH all right so I was
six then well the thing about it is I
never really grew out of wanting to have
Big League Chew in my mouth but I grew
out of knowing where to find it until I
go to Academy Sports and Outdoors where
you can find pretty much everything you
need in life Sporting Goods outdoor
camping equipment biking grilling but
you can also find big leagu in the
checkout line this story is going
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League Chew dm'd me and they asked my
favorite flavor and I said yes and they
said say no more we're sending you a
whole bunch and I gave this company my
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they could be Somalian hackers for all I
know but they they hacked the right
account because I will I will open my
doors any day week for big leag CH which
came because of Academy Sports and
Outdoors so you guys are going back to
school right now you guys are going back
to sports right now most of you are
going to a game this fall I know you're
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these folks are like tailgating
headquarters everything that you could
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need you got it at Academy I mean what
is a Saturday morning on campus without
looking across a sea of Academy chairs
and and grills and Tents and Academy
doesn't make their own Grill but they
carry Pit Boss and Trager and charboy
they carry all of them so we appreciate
them all right let me put some chapstick
on or some uh lip balm whatever that
stuff's
called it's about to get really serious
here appreciate you guys
watching I see a lot of people saying
they don't have an academy in their
backyard in the chat
academy.com you don't have one in the
DMV I know you guys got internet up in
Maryland so check out academy.com thank
you for your feed
feedback
so it's time to release the week one
edition of the JP poll the JP poll is
not actually a poll you guys are right
I'm just not changing the name because
the name JP pole is very catchy and it
is a marketing slogan and if you don't
like it I don't really care that's
disrespectful I care but just not enough
to change it the JP poll is a power
rating no different than if we were an
oddsmaker and we ran our sports book
over here these would be the raw numbers
we use to generate point spreads that's
how Washington kept winning last year
that how Washington beat Oregon last
year but stayed beneath Oregon doesn't
mean they're necessarily incapable of
beating Oregon again in fact they did
two times the Dirty Little Secret around
Vegas is last year Washington would have
been a dog a third time if they faced
Oregon and if you disagree with these
you you get to go bet on them that's
fine but by and large a power rating
model I have a lot more fun with than a
ranking model because your wins and
losses don't matter here necessarily you
aren't what your record says you are
necessarily it is about a little bit
different way to view teams so I've got
our own model here and it's got
everything you could possibly have
plugged into it uh these are preseason
numbers so they are as Loose as we will
have in the numerical format all year
this stuff fluctuates a whole lot you
got to be if you're going to be Resolute
behind this stuff you've also going to
be willing to Pivot on a dime so I'm
about to show you because we got Florida
State's new rating baked into this so
I'll show you how far they fell so let's
start off Jesse and let Colin let's roll
through this let me give you a little
idea of the gap between teams as as well
I see the disclaimer on the screen I
appreciate that number one through five
is unchanged so Georgia Ohio State
Oregon Texas and Alabama are the first
five that's the same as it was a month
ago now all I've done is I've talked to
as many people as I can from Fall camps
injuries have been baked in here Texas
even with the running back injuries it
wasn't enough to drop them below Alabama
just to give you an idea of the Gap here
we would have Georgia favored by about
6.75 points against Alabama right now so
they're close to a touchdown Gap one
through five now 6 through 10's where it
gets interesting you would think Penn
State being the number six team is
really high I think it's a little high
too not absurdly high but if I were to
rank these teams I'd have a few of these
teams ahead of Old Miss or ahead of Penn
State but the model is like Skyhigh on
Penn State Penn State's the new Texas
apparently uh the model was high on
Texas forever and now everyone's high on
Texas so the model had to find a new pet
project and apparently it's Penn State
uh here's what's
interesting there's not a whole lot of
drop off between Bama and Penn State the
drop off is between Penn State and Old
Miss there's a two-point drop off
between number six and number seven
which just means on a neutral field the
model would favor Penn State by two over
Old Miss then all of you would proceed
to go bet Old Miss plus two I know that
uh this is what the model thinks and we
all know I've I've always been right on
this if anything was ever wrong it was
the model's fault that it was wrong so
old misses number seven Notre Dame is
number eight virtually unchanged they
dropped one spot they I think changed
places with Old Miss
Michigan I bumped them up to had them at
11 they're at nine now A&M bumped them
up three or four spots I think something
like that uh that was just due to Camp
Intel didn't change him a lot I mean to
get bumped up one or two spots you
probably get bumped up a quarter of a
point on your power rating so that's
just a good oldfashioned camp Intel bump
there number 11 through 15 what do we
see here Camp Intel bump from Tennessee
which is interesting because they had a
big injury to their Nickel in Fall camp
but in the aggregate heard enough things
that Tennessee I think got a half a
point bump not huge but it's enough to
bump you up three spots Oklahoma's 12
Miami pretty good bump there uh better
depth and versatility in the offensive
Back Field than I thought they had uh
Elijah a Royo really good player and so
um I also think think that they got some
they got some young DBS with with a fair
amount of Hope there especially one
corner so uh they're up five spots
they're at number 13 Miami's at 13 LSU
is at 14 LSU a little too much talk
about turnovers with nus in Fall camp
for me to just remain unchanged on them
so they dropped four spots which means
they dropped three quarters of a point
not a huge deal Missouri's at 15 let's
continue oh by the way by the way as
Colin rolled the slide there just to
finish on that Miami's 13 I'm going to
show you in a second we've got Florida
at 21 Miami goes to Florida which means
we have to bake in HomeField the model
has Miami minus one and a half Miami
winning by one and a half this Saturday
which is close to what the point spread
is so in other
words it would not be at all shocking
and it would not invalidate anything in
the model's eyes if Florida at home as
the number 21 team beat Miami however I
know what's coming if Florida wins that
thing 24 to2 this Saturday I will get
inundated with people who call Miami
overrated and it was a farce and where's
your JP poll now and don't worry we'll
be right back here Sunday to defend
ourselves as only we can but just just
understand if that happened it's not too
far out of line with what the model
would expect with these teams rated
where they are now number 16 through 20
Kansas State 16 same as they were Utah
17 as they were hearing some half decent
things on USC some people and it's been
hard to get out there for fall camp but
there are some people who have been able
to see some
practices USC may be just a little bit
better maybe just a hair better than the
old model thought they were so we bumped
them up two spots Clemson is the same
there's Florida state Florida State
plummeted Florida State fell all the way
to 20th that was a three and 3/4 Point
drop
pretty substantial pretty substantial
now there are some who will look at this
and say why is Georgia Tech not ahead of
Florida State well that's because
Florida state would still be favored
against Georgia Tech if they played
tomorrow um by a pretty healthy amount
by six or seven points probably so um th
this is where you figure out whether
this makes sense to you or not there is
no oddsmaker in his right mind that
would favor Georgia Tech on a neutral
field against Florida State if they
played tomorrow even though they just
played on a neutral field and Georgia
Tech won the football game which they
fully deserve to and if I were ranking
the teams I would have Georgia Tech
ahead of Florida State but this is not a
ranking it is everyone a power rating so
that's the difference Josh what well
what sense does it make to power rate if
it doesn't make sense to you this is not
the video for you it's it's very simple
I like to do this because it's a
different kind of exercise and it's a
lot more datab based and not so emotion
based that's why 21 through
25 Florida's number 21 unchanged
Oklahoma State 22 Wisconsin 23 Iowa 24
dropped him down two spot simply because
their projected starter at quarterback
actually is starting for them which
disheartens me a little bit and Iowa
State's at 25 I just tweeted the JP poll
out even though I'm live on air as we
finish the segment just because I want
to see my phone light up over here to my
immediate left as The Show Goes On so
there you go now my promise to you a lot
of fluidity in these numbers so my
promise to you there will be movement
Georgia plays Clemson this Saturday Ohio
State plays akan oh prayers for akan
early running for Sarah mcglaughlin
special akan getting 50 and a half
against Ohio State Oregon plays uh I
can't remember who Oregon plays Texas
Bama so probably won't have any upsets
in the top five unless Clemson pulls one
off against Georgia and by the way man
if that happened if Clemson were to beat
Georgia again not biggest upset in the
world just remember we did the most
talented teams thing the other day
Clemson at least if you believe the 247
Sports Talent composite fifth most
talented roster in the country getting
nearly two touchdowns against Georgia
the number two most talented roster in
the country let us move on let us move
on oh by the way Colin did I show you
this let's see how this Pops in here so
the good thing about running your own
store is you get the early
prototypes uh I think that the patches
on the hats look great so if you're
listening on podcast oh it smells great
too uh I think that we're about to
reopen the P state store and these hats
are sweet I think we're going to sell
roughly 75 million of these so they're
going to sell out whenever we put them
up Pate material.com it's not open yet
I'll let you know when it's opening but
these these things right here I'd wear
this now I'd wear this all kind of
different colors talked to a certain
outdoor camo company today about a
partnership so yeah I list listen to
your feedback and a lot of the products
you have asked for and longed for will
be in there big week coming up around
here got I got a bigger announcement
than that before the show goes off the
air actually huge week around here
anyway let's dive back in So reports
today as we sit here on Sunday whatever
this is the 25th of August reports
Michigan receives NCAA notice of
allegations well well well the NCAA can
be sloppy about every other thing under
the Sun but they will not be slopp about
timing because friends this is also the
week that the Connor stallions Netflix
documentary drops they don't care about
that I promise you these are the most
fragile vain people on the face of the
Earth the NCAA very much cares they
probably got a countdown clock in their
facility to the Connor stallions Netflix
documentary I don't care if that thing
has nothing in it or if it's loaded with
Bombshells these people very much care
so what's happening here well at nothing
probably quickly because Michigan gets
this thing and that's standard operating
procedure if you've got a an NCAA
investigation into you they wrap up the
investigation then they send you a
notice of allegations basically here's
what we think you're guilty of you've
got 90 days to respond most of the time
that's just code for okay now the
lawyers can go to work so uh the reports
are that pretty much what Pete thill and
Dan Murphy put out a couple of weeks ago
is what is in this thing which is just
brilliant because the word from the NCAA
in their statement today
was for the sanctity and respect for
integrity of the investigation we're not
releasing any details uh mainly because
we already leaked them a few weeks ago
very convenient anyway so the NCAA is
not accidental about this timing I am in
wait and see mode on this I've gotten
some very fiery responses from you guys
because I told you well me personally
based on what I've heard so far I've
heard definite evidence that Michigan
had wrongdoing and they cheated I've
told you that there's a certain
threshold you know beyond which the
allegations have to go for me to view
their title is Tainted thus far it
hasn't gone beyond that okay I had some
really good emails sent to me a couple
in particular you know who you are of
people arguing the opposite of people
arguing that well it all becomes
relative once you allow for an ounce of
it you you allow for an ocean of it
because once you start down the slippery
slope there 's no coming up and you're
not wrong you're not in fact a lot of
you made really really good points that
I thought candid were better than
mine having said that okay let's say
you've got your opinion on this I've got
mine my point has been I'm in waitand
see mode on this I'm not team Michigan
I'm not team anti- Michigan I'm looking
at it I saw him win the title last year
it's my personal feel that what I saw
was pretty pretty legitimate and
authentic uh you can disagree with that
that's fine reasonable Minds can
disagree but I'm in waight C mode
because there is a world where some
stuff comes out of this that you and I
had never heard of before there is that
world there's a world where the craziest
most fanatical rumors that have ever
seen the light of a message board
actually come true there's another world
where it's pretty procedural and the
NCAA just wants Financial restitution um
but there is a there's a third thing
that I'm looking at here and I'm looking
at that documentary coming out this
week um
couple of approaches all right let me
get to the documentary in a second I
wouldn't put it past the NCA to know the
endgame here and the end game is we
don't bring the hammer down on anyone
even if we did they'd crush us in court
because we stay getting crushed in court
so we know this is going to end with
them agreeing to a financial settlement
with us and we're going to find them and
Chiron Moore is going to sit out a
meaningless game and that'll be it and
we'll be able to say look we got one and
michig will be able to say
all so that's probably how they know
this ends but if they know it ends that
way and they know Michigan Chuckles
walking out the door what you can do is
you can punish them procedurally and
what that means is if you know you're
really not going to get the Maze and
blue scalp on the wall that you want you
can just drag them through all kinds of
mud in the process for example you can
leak reports ahead of a documentary or
you can serve a notice of allegations
checks watch the week of their first
game to distract as much as you could
possibly try and distract so you know
you don't really have them at the end of
the day you can just make their life as
miserable as you can in the Aggregate
and maybe that's a little bit of um
maybe that's the pound of Flesh that you
want to exact now as for this
documentary a couple of you when this
news came out today and I just all I
tweeted out I think was nothing about
this timing is
coincidental couple of you said theaa
don't care anything about that Connor
stallions documentary yeah they
do they care about it
they care about it uh because they're
probably a little more aware of some of
the stuff that could be in it than the
average Joe now this documentary could
be a clown show could be an in fact I
expect elements of it to be a clown show
it is not it's not going to be the most
hard-hitting piece of Netflix journalism
that you've ever been slapped in the
face with uh so what I expect this week
when I watch that thing is I expect to
laugh a lot I expect to say what in the
world is this dude doing on camera a lot
but I also expect to say hold on rewind
that hold hold on he's got what they got
what now that's the kind of documentary
you're probably in for not the most
revealing piece of content that you've
ever seen in your life however uh
normally I would understand you guys
when you'd be saying well the NCAA
doesn't care what's in this documentary
well they care about what's in the
documentary if they're in the
documentary and I think they may be in
the documentary is all I'm saying so HST
amongst us knows what any of that means
but uh I don't think this timing is a
coincidence so another one of you asked
me today hey are they going to drop the
hammer on Michigan or what no no
dropping the hammer is is very much a
bygone metaphor for what the NCAA used
to do punitively to programs the
conference is not going to allow that
the networks are not going to allow that
at this point some of my Michigan
viewers are saying are you kidding me
the conference didn't stand up for us at
all during this investigation well
that's because you as an asset really
weren't hurt last time I checked
Michigan ran the table and won the
national title last year viewership was
through the roof you as an asset were
not hurt last year if they were to strip
you of scholarships if they were to try
to impose a bowl ban on you and all that
sort of thing and a a postseason ban
will that hurt you as an asset all of a
sudden Michigan football in my content
portfolio is not worth what they used to
be worth that's not an option NCAA
doesn't run this sport networks do and
so if a network or conglomeration of
them in the big 10's case look and say
hold on these folks in Indianapolis
think they're about to do what that's
not happening whatever backro dealings
and phone calls need to be made will be
made that's not going to be allowed to
happen so it is very very very likely
that dropping the hammer incaa style in
2024 just means we're going to hit you
financially you know the the other the
other member institutions are no friends
of Michigan right now make no mistake
about it they they they're no friends of
them but they know that in a roundabout
way Michigan's worth is tied into their
worth so they're not going to allow them
to be damaged as an asset what they
would allow is they would allow them to
be hit individually financially which is
probably the end game here so my
followup as it relates to this season on
the field is is the NCAA about to do the
same thing again are they about to arm
Michigan again CU last year that team in
that program bottled that whole deal up
about as well as anyone could in an us
against the world moment and uh they won
versus The World by the way are they
doing that again this year will it even
matter does that stuff even matter do we
make too much of that they've play
Fresno State this Saturday in the big
house they play Texas two weeks from now
in the big house that'd be a pretty good
game to go to imagine being there
they're watching us in Lawrence Kansas
aworth Georgia van bu Arkansas and
Trinidad Colorado thank you guys so
much question question for the room here
got a lot of you watching live do me one
favor as you're watching live I know a
lot of you have come back to college
football welcome back happy to have you
do me a favor and check and make sure
you're subscribed to the channel and the
podcast some of you think you are but
check anyway because it's at this moment
you realized oh wait I'm not subscribed
do me a favor it cost you nothing it
does nothing there's no no string attach
it's a favor to us subscribe to the
channel or the podcast and that's it
that's my request okay John hit me up
from Glendale Arizona he said could you
rank the top quarterbacks this season
yeah I could I think Carson Beck's the
best quarterback in the country to come
into this season 72.4% completion guy
last year 281 passing yards per game 24
to6 touchdown to interception does all
that carry over sometimes it doesn't I
think it will he was in a top five
scoring off offense last year don't have
any reason to believe that would drop
off he is an nil gift Carson Beck is not
playing college football this year if it
were 2014 instead of 2024 nil has made
it possible for a lot of these late
first early second round type talents to
come back instead of testing the waters
so it's not all the Devil he's got an
elite offensive line good pass catchers
here tight end even without Brock Bowers
one of the best tight end rooms in the
country again I just think sometimes we
need to pause and understand we just
said we watched a truly a generational
tight end Talent overused word but not
in Brock Bower's case we watch him go to
the NFL and the room he vacated is still
one of the top tight end rooms in the
country wow Dylan Gabriel I struggled
with where to place him here he couldn't
ask for more man from a surroundings
standpoint will Stein is one of the
hottest Rising offense coordinators in
the country he will probably have the
best onew receiver combo to deal with
he's got an all conference tight end to
throw the ball to he was top 10 last
year at Oklahoma in completion
percentage uh pass yards per game pass
touchdowns the NFL guys I I talked to a
number of NFL scouting types to get
their read on college players Dylan
Gabriel does not project to some
Superstar at the NFL level he is a star
at the college football level uh
probably like lower tier arm strength
size Etc it's it's not like he's Cam
Newton 2.0 or anything like that but at
the college level the guy can win a
National Championship I look so forward
to seeing him and there were only a
couple of these tests coming per year
but like against Ohio State secondary of
of having to thread it and having to zip
it in a window that's a lot tighter um
all due respect than the ones he had to
fit it in in the Big 12 look forward to
that but he's up there cam Ward at Miami
is up there now the difference with Cam
Ward is last year he's fourth in pass
yards per game he's number one I think
Jesse amongst quarterbacks who returned
25 to7 touchdown to int ratio last year
that was up at Washington State so he
comes down to
Miami maybe he'll hit the ground running
my feel around Miami and like cam
the offense is I actually expect a
little bit of clunkiness in the early
part of the Season just sort of working
Kinks here and there out I think event
maybe week one maybe week five he is
right up here with the best quarterbacks
in the country and their offense is up
there with one of the best offenses in
the country it'll be very balanced
they've got really good talent and
versatility in their running back room
but also I mean again Elijah aroyo tight
in waited for him last year got hurt in
the preseason uh he is not hurt now and
so I look for him to be one of the best
weapons along with you know Restrepo the
brown kid they got from Houston a lot of
good players there Jackson Dart where
would you put Jackson Dart because I
came to this part Jackson Dart Quinn ERS
you know which one goes goes where
Jackson Dart is the by far the best dual
threat on this list 23 to five touchdown
to int last year through the air but he
also ran for eight touchdowns and he's
got just weapon after weapon out wide he
is the unquestioned leader I think of
that offense they have got I think in
ulysis Bentley an elite running back
Talent so it's not on his shoulders he's
a guy who could take it on his shoulders
but the entire weight of the load is not
on his shoulders uh Quinn yers I just
mentioned him at Texas this is the guy
who has the biggest year on his hands
because I've seen it from some of these
other guys I've seen it I have not seen
Quinn y's top end game I don't think I
have if I have then we've overrated him
a little bit he was top 12 last year in
completion percentage and passing yards
per game um top 12 okay that's great but
we're we're trying to talk top five or
top six here is he that is he that he's
got the same system for a third year in
a row same program same coordinator so
the consistency is around him it's a
familiar environment they did as good a
job as they possibly could losing those
pass catchers to go
backfill um he's got it to do he's
workable schedule he's got it to do
still some work to be done to be a top
five in the country
and then there's just the other list of
guys like milro could be in here shador
I mean shador you know I looked at this
and if I put shador Sanders on any of
these teams shador Sanders is a lock to
be a top five quarterback so it wasn't
strictly like a power rating system of
quarterbacks I did take that into
account but I also took your
surroundings into account and who knows
man maybe shid will be that regardless
but Brady cook at Missouri Drew Aller at
Penn State cam Rising back for his 19
season at Utah faf out at Arizona
wouldn't be surprised at all to see him
pop up there Garrett nus I know I said
that maybe turnovers have been a bit of
an issue in Fall Camp that's fall Camp
man you work that out maybe he just
comes out and throws for four touchdowns
against USC and Garrett nusers
immediately in the conversation all that
could happen all that could
happen
um big moment in the show here so f a
couple of things I need to tell you the
first thing I need to tell you col let
me make sure I'm where I need to be yes
I am so the first thing I need to tell
you is I'm about to give you the first
two picks on the ramen noodle Express
this year which means I need to explain
to a lot of you who are new around here
what the ramen noodle Express is way
back in the day I'll explain more about
this on Tuesday because on Tuesday night
I'm going to do an entire explainer on
all the inside jokes and nomenclature of
the show everything that's on the show
that makes no sense to you I'll do it
all at the end of Tuesday night show
I'll just explain it all in the
meantime uh the ramen Express because of
times that were more impoverished for me
down in Columbus Georgia is the name of
our segment for the games that we move
on and we bet every week and I it could
come at any time it is imperative that
you're following on social at Lake kick
Josh because during the week normally
I'll just tweet these out at random
because I'm looking at the lines over at
FanDuel and when they move where we want
them we move it's not always when I'm
live on air in fact most times it's not
when I'm live on air so at Lake kick
Josh make sure you're following but
since we're back to college football and
since it's Sunday night and we got the
week one lines pretty well hammered out
to where they're going to be I figured
we'd go ahead and move on a couple of
these first pick of the year who do you
think is going to be there's a drum roll
for you who you think it's going to be
gonna be Bama is it gonna be USC is
going to be Kentucky no it's going to be
Kent State plus 24 and a half against
pit in week one that line is available
boom I'm looking at it right now at
FanDuel Kent State plus 24 and a half
next up on the ramen noodle Express
powered by FanDuel
everybody seems to be warning Colorado
about this week one game against North
Dakota State this is a time in history
where you have to sort of kind of lay a
little bit of a premium to bet
Colorado actually I'm doing that in week
one I think Colorado is going to beat
North Dakota state by double digits so
I'm laying nine and a half with the
Buffs that line has come down and I
think it probably is on its way back up
we're comfortable with the line where it
is so Colorado minus 9 9 and a half Kent
State plus 24 A2 those are the early
Best Bets on the ramen noodle Express
this week do not bet money you don't
have on
this um don't be parlaying these that's
my advice FanDuel would be happy to take
your parlay action my advice is these
are not meant to be parlayed
also um don't be
um don't be looking at these and
thinking well okay I'm going to pick out
the ones that I agree with him on but
I'm not going to bet the ones I don't
agree on my advice is BET them all or
don't bet any of them if you're going to
just cherry pick you might as well bet
the games that your gut tells you to bet
so that's all that's always it seems to
be a winning strategy I know I used to
do it I used to subscribe to the T
sheets when I was in high school and say
now wait a second if I bet what that guy
tells me to but I only filter it through
what I agree with I'll I'll hit 60% no
problem no you won't you'll hit the
exact percentage you always would have
hit so right now at FanDuel and I want
you to listen up I want you to listen up
if you can't afford to bet this stuff
don't even be going to sign up but if
you want to have some fun and you can
afford to responsibly this fall you can
go over there and sign up right now
couple of things new signups right now
you bet $5 it doesn't matter if the BET
wins or loses they're going to put
another 200 in your account welcome to
FanDuel um that's guaranteed no matter
the outcome by the way so if you're a
new user that's for new users you can
use this link FanDuel
/ CFB promotion that helps us that lets
them know we sent you fanduel.com
CFB promotion or if you're watching
right now you just click on that QR code
so FanDuel they're powering the ramen
noodle Express uh they're they're
powering the odds entirely on this show
and we appreciate them so much uh last
question and then I got to get out of
here because I have other chores to tend
to tonight Colin you got that herb
Street question very rare that we do a
segment like this Mike hit me up and
said hey lol how awesome was it hearing
NL fans boo Herby every time he spoke on
game
day not all that awesome I guess was the
the kind of secret that no one wanted to
tell you guys yesterday it sounded kind
of lame I'm all for you doing it that's
fine with me I've I've always loved the
will muschamp quote I'd much rather have
to tell a horse whoa boy than have to
constantly tell a horse gidy up he was
talking about football players I feel
the same way about fan bases so if the
worst thing a fan base does is act
overly passionate and enraged because
they perceive a wrongdoing fine by me I
had it directed at me not to the degree
herb Street did I mean there are people
who paint herbstreet as like the face of
the deep state of college football now
shockingly he is not but I know a lot of
you believe that and you you couldn't be
told otherwise we experienced it though
remember because I did my little
flip-flop on Florida State last year and
I at one time said no matter if Jordan
Travis is hurt or if he's playing if
Florida State's undefeated they belong
in the playoff but then at the end of
the day I said I thought Alabama should
have gotten in so that sounded
hypocritical that sounded like a
flip-flop so then everyone came after me
as well and um let me let you guys in on
a little something I know a lot of you
orchestrated going and down voting the
videos and the podcast that actually
helped us so I would appreciate you to
continue doing that my advice if you're
trying to hurt us is probably find
another way um just just a little friend
piece of advice that actually helped us
that actually boosted us a lot I don't
know how but it did so there was really
no reasoning like it didn't matter at
that point for me to explain myself
there was no reasoning but the tradeoff
for people being passionate is sometimes
this stuff happens so if herb Street
gets booed on game day he's an adult he
can take it he can get on his private
jet and fly home I mean what a life to
live right so I did see him fire a tweet
off probably somewhere over the Atlantic
and it was it was it takes a big man to
tweet that he didn't he didn't address
it he didn't address the booing he just
said a tough loss for the Noles and I
looked at it and I smiled and I said I
know what he's doing I know what he was
doing but here's the thing about it I
used to traffic in this stuff real talk
I grew up in Atlanta Braves fam and I
used to swear to you that ESPN was out
to get the Braves you could never tell
me otherwise and I would cherry-pick
where they got placed they're in the C
block of sports center whereas the Mets
are in the B Block even though the Mets
are 15 games out of first place and the
Braves are right in thick of it
I had no shortage of evidence just like
you guys have no shortage of evidence
that there is a grand media conspiracy
and was last year around FSU uh I got
inside the media business here's what
changed my opinion of it number one I
kind of saw behind the scenes and I
realized yeah most of that stuff's fake
and then the other thing is I got
accused of a lot of it and I know me if
nothing else I know me I know how I feel
about Florida State I know uh you know
how I feel about any given matter in
this Sport and so I like I get accused
of I get accused of homerism all the
time being a hater sometimes of the same
teams but I remember having a
conversation with Jesse and management
and I actually said you know what's
dawned on
me these people are accusing me of the
same stuff I used to accuse like ESPN of
and I know I'm not guilty of it I laugh
at most of it so I'm sitting here
knowing me and then I started asking
wait a second was I wrong about that
stuff all those years and then
furthermore are are most of these Grand
media conspiracies just that grand media
conspiracies so let me go back just a
second um to to flip it back to Herb
Street y'all can boo herb Street all you
want to all he did was sit on TV and
give you his opinion mroy did the same
thing you came after him I did the same
thing you came after
me how many of you went after Bill
Hancock I'm not suggesting any of you go
after anyone by the way let me state
that very clearly for the record Mean
Tweets should be the extent of you going
after anyone
here's where I flip-flopped for a little
refresher course you want to know why I
sounded like a hypocrite you want to
know why I flip-flopped it's because for
this entire
process I was of the opinion I was under
the notion even that we were taking the
most deserving teams in the playoff I
just thought that was the language I
thought that was what they always had
done let me take you back to November
28th the week of rivalry week last year
Bill Hancock on his way out the door I
believe the chair of the playoff
committee said quote most deserving is
not in our
lexicon we're taking the best teams he
didn't have to say that he voluntarily
said
that so then I listened and I thought
well if that's your criteria that's
totally different if we're taking the
best teams I think bam would beat
Florida State at the end of the day when
I compare their resumes and I think
they're the better team all of a sudden
I didn't change status quo herb Street
didn't change status quo maroy didn't
change status quo they looked at the guy
with the playoff sticker on his lapel
and listen to what he said at least this
is what I did and I said whoa that's a
game changer we did two segments on it
on the show I said Bill Hancock said
what now at the 11th hour he said what
so I got to the end of the finish I got
to the finish line and I said I think a
couple of things I think they got the
right four teams based on their state
criteria and I think they screwed
Florida state which was perceived by
some to be fence riding no it wasn't I'm
telling you based on my understanding of
the thing from the whole time that
Florida State should have gotten in they
changed the language at the 11th hour
and all of a sudden they say it's not
about deserving which I thought it had
always been about no so so they changed
the score So based on that yeah I
thought Bama should have been in but
that was like five minutes old cuz I'd
never heard anyone talk like that before
so yeah congrats you boo herb Street and
and um then you got beat as a double
digit favorite so he still looks the
same today you don't I'm not sure who we
declare the winner there how about this
you have just watched the last episode
ever of Lake kick live do you realize
that no you don't because I have not
told you this we're not going anywhere
we'll be fine we'll be here Tuesday
night same as always but I'm kind of
tired of the name Lake kick and honestly
for those of you who forget the title of
the show you probably go on Google and
search Josh Pat's College football show
anyway so we're just going to change the
name of the show to Josh Pat's college
football show you should also know that
I wrapped up negotiation with CBS last
week and we've entered into a new deal
with them that deal has seen us take
complete ownership of this channel take
complete ownership of our podcast feed
that's ours now that's ours we own it
we're changing the name of it to what it
is which is Josh P's college football
show I know that just indicates my name
it's ours we own it I just had for SEO
purposes to put my name in there so
here's what's up uh Tuesday night we're
predicting all the games that's what we
do every Tuesday night Thursday night I
hate to tell you this this far ahead of
time but yet cold cuts will be back on
Thursday night I'm gonna bring CU in but
instead of just pandering and asking him
questions we're just going straight to
the live chat it'll be like the last
part of the Thursday
show I've got uh probably a couple of
more announcements to give you this week
so we got a a lot changing around here
but yet the thing that's going to remain
the same is the show we're going to
remain the exact same there so I got to
go because we have got another
commitment tonight I appreciate you guys
so much last Edition pop the champagne
for late kick live it lasted four years
Josh Pat's college football show live
Comes Your Way Tuesday night until then
for direct Colin for producer Jesse
thank you guys so much take care and God
bless for
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