Using Weekly Profiles for Daily Bias (Simplified)

Summary

Este video introduce el concepto de perfiles semanales y cómo utilizarlos para obtener un sesgo diario en el trading. El presentador explica tres perfiles semanales de alta probabilidad: la expansión clásica, la reversión a mitad de semana y la reversión de consolidación. Se enfatiza en evitar el trading los lunes y antes del primer evento de noticias de alto impacto de la semana, utilizando el calendario económico como guía. A través de ejemplos detallados, se muestra cómo identificar estos perfiles en gráficos reales y aplicar un protocolo semanal para predecir movimientos de precios, maximizando las oportunidades de trading con un enfoque sistemático.

Takeaways

• 📊 Los perfiles semanales se usan para determinar el sesgo diario analizando las velas semanales y su desglose en gráficos diarios.
• 📉 Hay tres perfiles semanales principales: expansión clásica, reversión a mitad de semana y reversión de consolidación.
• 🚫 Se recomienda evitar operar los lunes ya que no son días de expansión y suelen preceder a eventos importantes de noticias.
• 🗓️ Es importante utilizar el calendario económico para filtrar eventos de alto impacto y planificar las operaciones en torno a ellos.
• 🔍 Definir rangos de precio de descuento (PD) de cuatro horas o superiores es crucial para anticipar reversiones en el marco semanal.
• 🔄 Un cambio en el estado de entrega se utiliza para confirmar las reversiones semanales, observando tiempo, precio y cierre a través de velas opuestas.
• 📅 Los martes, miércoles y jueves se consideran los días más propicios para operar según el perfil semanal en curso.
• 📈 La expansión clásica se espera de martes a jueves, mientras que la reversión a mitad de semana y la reversión de consolidación afectan principalmente a jueves y viernes.
• 💡 Es esencial adaptar las estrategias de trading al perfil semanal identificado para aumentar la probabilidad de éxito.
• 🎓 El enfoque conservador de evitar operar antes de noticias de alto impacto y los lunes puede mejorar la efectividad y reducir el riesgo.

Q & A

¿Qué es un perfil semanal y cómo se traduce en un gráfico?

Un perfil semanal se basa en la comprensión del open, low, high, close (apertura, mínimo, máximo, cierre) de la vela semanal. Este concepto se desglosa en un gráfico diario, donde cinco velas diarias conforman lo que se considera un perfil semanal.

¿Cuántos tipos de perfiles semanales menciona el ICT y cuántos se explican en el vídeo?

El ICT ha dado seis tipos de perfiles semanales, pero en el vídeo se refinan y se explican solo tres perfiles que se consideran de alta probabilidad.

¿Qué es la semana de expansión clásica y cuándo ocurre?

La semana de expansión clásica ocurre cuando el lunes o martes forman el reverso y el precio se expande en la dirección opuesta hasta el jueves. Se caracteriza por una clara secuencia de apertura, mínimo, máximo y cierre de la vela semanal.

¿Cómo se utiliza el perfil de reversión de mitad de semana para obtener un sesgo diario?

El perfil de reversión de mitad de semana se utiliza cuando el miércoles forma un reverso y el precio se expande desde ese punto por el resto de la semana. Esto establece un sesgo diario para el jueves y el viernes, anticipando una continuación del rango semanal lejos del punto de reversión.

¿Qué es el perfil de reversión de consolidación?

El perfil de reversión de consolidación ocurre cuando el precio se revierte un jueves y se expande en la dirección opuesta hasta el viernes. Este perfil ofrece un sesgo claro para el trading del viernes, donde el objetivo principal será el lado opuesto del rango consolidado.

¿Por qué se recomienda evitar el trading los lunes bajo el marco de perfiles semanales?

Se recomienda evitar el trading los lunes porque bajo los tres perfiles mencionados, el lunes nunca es un día de expansión. Además, el lunes raramente cae antes de un evento de noticias de alto impacto, lo que significa que se anticipa acción de precio de alta resistencia, lo cual se prefiere evitar.

¿Cómo se utiliza el calendario económico en el protocolo semanal?

El calendario económico se utiliza para filtrar eventos de noticias significativos de alto impacto y evitar el trading los días antes del primer conductor de noticias de alto impacto significativo de la semana. Esto ayuda a evitar quedar atrapado en la acumulación previa al lanzamiento y favorece el trading en condiciones de alta probabilidad.

¿Cuáles son los pasos del protocolo semanal para aplicar en el mercado?

Los pasos incluyen evitar el trading los lunes, no operar los días previos al primer evento de noticias de alto impacto de la semana, definir los PDAs de marco temporal superior para enmarcar un reverso dentro de un perfil semanal definido, y observar un cambio en el estado de entrega para confirmar el reverso semanal.

¿Qué es un cambio en el estado de entrega y cómo se identifica?

Un cambio en el estado de entrega se identifica por tiempo, precio y un cierre a través de velas cerradas opuestas. Es el momento en que el flujo de órdenes de marco temporal superior está cambiando dentro de la semana y se utiliza como confirmación para los reversos.

¿Cómo se determinan los objetivos semanales según el vídeo?

Los objetivos semanales se determinan utilizando el entendimiento de los perfiles semanales y el análisis del calendario económico para predecir la expansión del precio después de eventos de noticias significativos, y luego observando un cambio en el estado de entrega para confirmar la dirección de la expansión.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Uso de perfiles semanales para determinar el sesgo diario

Este video introduce el concepto de utilizar perfiles semanales para establecer un sesgo diario en el trading, explicando los fundamentos de los perfiles semanales a través del análisis de velas semanales y cómo se descomponen en un gráfico diario. Se presenta una simplificación del sistema a tres perfiles semanales de alta probabilidad: expansión clásica, reversión a mitad de semana y reversión de consolidación, cada uno con características y estrategias de trading específicas. Se enfatiza en la importancia de comprender estos perfiles para mejorar la eficiencia en la obtención de un sesgo diario, junto con un recordatorio de recursos adicionales para una comprensión más profunda.

05:01

🗓️ Protocolo semanal para aplicar perfiles semanales

El segundo segmento del video detalla un protocolo semanal paso a paso para aplicar los perfiles semanales en el trading en vivo, comenzando con la recomendación de evitar el trading los lunes. Se destaca la importancia de utilizar el calendario económico para filtrar eventos de alto impacto y cómo esto informa los días propicios para el trading, evitando los días previos a estos eventos significativos. Este enfoque conservador busca asegurar condiciones de trading de alta probabilidad y evitar ser atrapado en la acumulación previa al lanzamiento de noticias de alto impacto. Se concluye con ejemplos prácticos en gráficos para identificar perfiles semanales y determinar el sesgo de trading, subrayando la importancia de la observación de un cambio en el estado de entrega como confirmación del sesgo semanal.

10:02

🔍 Aplicación práctica del protocolo semanal

El último segmento profundiza en la aplicación práctica del protocolo semanal, presentando ejemplos detallados de cómo observar y confirmar reversales semanales mediante la identificación de cambios en el estado de entrega. Se enfatiza en la secuenciación de tiempo, precio y cierre a través de velas opuestas para confirmar estos cambios, proporcionando una estrategia clara para anticipar y actuar sobre movimientos expansivos en los días específicos de la semana. Este enfoque sistemático ilustra cómo los traders pueden utilizar una metodología estructurada para mejorar su precisión y eficacia en el mercado, concluyendo con un resumen de los pasos clave del protocolo y un llamado a la acción para los espectadores para aplicar estos conceptos en su trading.

Keywords

💡Perfiles semanales

Los perfiles semanales son una herramienta analítica utilizada para entender la acción del precio en una base semanal, desglosando una vela semanal en acciones diarias. Este concepto es central para el video, ya que se utiliza para determinar el sesgo diario en el trading. Por ejemplo, se menciona que una sola vela semanal alcista se descompone en cinco velas diarias, lo que constituye el perfil semanal.

💡Sesgo diario

El sesgo diario se refiere a la tendencia o dirección prevista del mercado para un día específico, basada en el análisis de perfiles semanales. En el video, se destaca cómo los perfiles semanales ayudan a determinar este sesgo para tomar decisiones de trading más informadas.

💡Expansión clásica

La expansión clásica es uno de los tres perfiles semanales de alta probabilidad mencionados en el video. Describe una semana en la que el lunes o martes marca el punto de reversión y el precio se expande en la dirección opuesta hacia el jueves. Se utiliza para predecir el comportamiento del precio y establecer un sesgo de trading para los días específicos.

💡Reversión de mitad de semana

La reversión de mitad de semana es otro perfil semanal destacado, que ocurre cuando el precio invierte el miércoles y se expande en la dirección opuesta durante el resto de la semana. Este perfil proporciona un sesgo para el trading del jueves y viernes, anticipando una continuación del rango semanal.

💡Reversión de consolidación

Este perfil se presenta cuando el precio invierte el jueves y se expande en dirección opuesta el viernes. Es crucial para establecer un sesgo de trading para el viernes, anticipando una expansión hacia el lado opuesto del rango de consolidación identificado.

💡Evitar el trading los lunes

Una regla clave del protocolo semanal es evitar operar los lunes, ya que este día nunca es considerado un día de expansión bajo los perfiles mencionados. El video enfatiza que los lunes suelen ser para movimientos falsos, consolidación o reversión, sin datos suficientes para determinar el perfil semanal probable.

💡Calendario económico

El uso del calendario económico es vital para filtrar eventos de noticias de alto impacto y planificar la estrategia de trading semanal. El video instruye sobre cómo usar Forexfactory.com para identificar estos eventos y evitar el trading en días previos al primer evento significativo de alto impacto de la semana.

💡Arreglos de descuento y prima PD

Los arreglos PD (Precio Descuento y Precio Prima) se refieren a zonas de valor donde el precio es probable que invierta. En el contexto del video, estos arreglos se utilizan para identificar puntos de reversión potenciales en combinación con los perfiles semanales para establecer un sesgo de trading.

💡Cambio de estado de entrega

Este concepto se utiliza para confirmar una reversión semanal, basándose en el tiempo (día de la semana), el precio (interacción con arreglos PD) y un cierre a través de velas cerradas opuestas. Es un criterio para confirmar la anticipación de reversión según el perfil semanal identificado.

💡Objetivo semanal

El objetivo semanal se refiere al punto de precio anticipado al que se espera que se expanda el mercado, basado en el perfil semanal identificado. En el video, se menciona como parte del proceso de determinar dónde se espera que el precio se mueva durante la semana, ayudando a definir los objetivos de trading.

Highlights

Introduction to using weekly profiles for daily trading bias.

Explanation of weekly profile concept based on weekly candle patterns.

Breakdown of weekly candles into daily charts for profile analysis.

Efficient daily bias determination using three specific weekly profiles.

Description of the 'Classic Expansion Week' profile.

Analysis of bullish and bearish weekly candles in Classic Expansion Week.

Introduction to the 'Midweek Reversal' weekly profile.

Detailed explanation of bullish and bearish midweek reversals.

Overview of the 'Consolidation Reversal' weekly profile.

Analyzing bullish and bearish scenarios in the Consolidation Reversal profile.

Protocol for applying weekly profiles in live market trading.

Avoiding Monday trading and significance of high-impact news.

Using an economic calendar to filter significant news events.

Protocol steps for applying weekly profiles, including news event analysis.

Defining high time frame PD arrays and identifying weekly objectives.

Importance of observing changes in state of delivery for confirming reversals.

Transcripts

foreign

what's going on everyone welcome back to

another video and this one I'll be

talking about a simple process of using

weekly profiles to get your daily bias

just to mention I will be sharing

everything you need to know on weekly

profiles in this video but if you want a

really detailed explanation you can go

down below and click the linked PDF in

the description and that's going to go

even farther in depth on this topic with

that being said we can start by

answering the question of what is a

weekly profile and how does it translate

on an actual chart the basis of this

concept is framed around the

understanding of the open low high close

and open high low close of the weekly

Candle on the left we have a single

bullish weekly candle which is open low

I close and on the right we have a

single bearish weekly candle which is

open high low close when you break the

single weekly candle down into a daily

chart these five daily candles are what

we consider a weekly profile using this

understanding of how the weekly candle

prints on a chart and the three profiles

will be showing you in the next part of

this video we're able to get really

efficient daily bias just as a quick

disclaimer yes ICT has given six types

of weekly profiles which you can find in

the core content videos but I ever find

my system down to only three profiles

which I consider high probability so

that's what I'll be sharing with you

here the first weekly profile to

understand is the classic expansion week

this is one Monday or Tuesday form the

reversal and price expands in the

opposing Direction into Thursday on the

left here we can see a bullish classic

expansion week with the clear open low

high and close of the weekly candle as

previously mentioned here on the daily

chart either Monday or Tuesday for May

load of the week at a four hour or above

discount PD array and price expands off

that point through Thursday into the

weekly objective same idea here on the

right but this is a bearish classic

expansion week with the Open high low

and close of the weekly candle on the

daily chart we expect Monday or Tuesday

to trade higher into a four hour premium

array to form a high of the week and

expand to the downside of that reversal

through Thursday into the weekly

objective from the point of reversal

this profile offers bias for Tuesday

Wednesday and Thursday's trading as for

Friday using the understanding of the

TGIF setup we do not anticipate a

continuation of the weekly range on this

day I have a video going over the

function of the TGIF setup if you are

not already familiar with it and I will

also have that video linked down below

the next profile we're going to cover is

the midweek reversal this is when

Wednesday forms a reversal and price

expands away from that point for the

remainder of the week on the left here

is an example of a bullish midweek

reversal the weekly candle is an open

low high and close but the anticipation

that the closing price will be near or

at the high of the week looking at a

daily chart Monday or Tuesday can either

be Consolidated or offered to down close

candles away from the weekly draw which

can be considered a Judas swing on

Wednesday price makes a move down into a

four hour or above discount array and

expands off that price point into the

weekly objective same idea here on the

right but this is showing a bearish

midweek reversal the weekly candle is an

open high low and close with again the

anticipation that price will close near

or at the low of the week here on a

daily chart Monday or Tuesday will

either be two up close candles

considering a Judah swing or will be

relatively Consolidated near the opening

price on Wednesday price will trade up

into a four hour or above premium array

and expand off that price point to the

downside into the weekly objective under

the midweek reversal profile we have

established daily bias for both Thursday

and Friday where we anticipate a

continuation of the weekly range away

from the reversal point in the form of

expansion the third and final weekly

profile is the consolidation reversal

this is when price reverses on a

Thursday and expands in the opposing

direction through Friday on the left

here is an example of a bullish

consolidation reversal the weekly candle

is an open low high and close and just

like the midweek reverso we are

anticipating the closing price to be

near or at the high of the week looking

on the daily chart Monday through

Wednesday will be Consolidated around

the opening price of the week on

Thursday price manipulates the external

low of the Consolidated range and

expands off that price point through

Friday into the weekly objective and

again on the right we are seeing a

bearish consolidation reversal the

weekly candle is an open high low close

with the closing price being near or at

the low of the week moving to a daily

chart again Monday through Wednesday

will be Consolidated near the opening

price in the internal range Thursday

price manipulates the external high of

the Consolidated range and then expands

away towards the weekly draw through

Friday this profile offers clear bias

for Friday's trading where the main

target will be the opposing side of the

Consolidated range now that you

understand the basics of the three

weekly profiles and how they offer daily

bias for specific days we can go over

the actual protocol that you can follow

each week to apply this in a market

that's trading live the first step of

the protocol and one of the most

important is to avoid trading on Mondays

under the three profiles I previously

mentioned Monday is never an expansion

day it is only ever a Juda swing a

consolidation or a reversal number two

significant high impact news never falls

on a Monday with the understanding that

Monday will always fall before a high

impact news event in the week we can

anticipate High Resistance price action

which we're going to want to avoid the

third and final reason is if you were to

attempt to trade Monday when relying on

a weekly profile framework you have no

data for the week to determine what the

profile is likely going to be the only

profile which Monday sometimes plays a

significance in is a classic expansion

week if Monday happens to trade into a

higher time frame PD array to reverse

price considering each of those factors

it's highly in your favor to avoid this

day of trading and simply keep your

charts closed the next step of the

weekly protocol is to take advantage of

the economic calendar if you search

forexfactory.com calendar this is the

page you'll be taken to this is where

you can find the news events which are

taking place throughout the week across

all asset classes our first step here is

to filter out the noise of all the

unnecessary news events as all we're

concerned about are the significant high

impact news events which are taking

place during the week if we press filter

in the top right we get this drop down

of all these options under expected

impact we want to remove the orange

yellow and gray folder we can keep each

event type and under currencies you're

going to want to select the one which is

correlated with the pair you are trading

I'm using indices as an example so I

will select USD once I click apply

filter you can now see that our list

only contains red folder USD news now

that your economic calendar is properly

filtered we can go into the question of

how do you actually use this to your

advantage the main rule under this

framework is to avoid trading the dates

before the first significant high impact

news driver of the week while each of

these events show red folders they're

each weighed differently in their amount

of significance the one rule of thumb to

follow to know which news events are

significant on the market is to note

either fomc press conference or any red

folded news event that is released at 8

30. using that rule on this current week

we would consider this fomc press

conference at 2 30 on Wednesday as the

first significant high impact news

driver of the week that would mean

regardless of the price chart we would

be avoiding trading Monday and Tuesday

another example here shows the first

significant high impact news driver on 8

30 on Monday but if we recall the first

rule is that we don't trade Monday so we

will look to Tuesday as the first day of

the week and that has an 8 30 high

impact news driver so we consider

Tuesday as the first day of potential

trading moving on to another example

it's clear to see here that there is no

significant high impact News until CPI

which is 8 30 on Thursday that would

mean we consider Monday Tuesday and

Wednesday as a low probability

conditions and we would not be seeking

trades until Thursday the logic of the

economic calendar is that the days prior

to a high impact news event of the week

it is likely to be Consolidated or

accumulated the high impact news event

is when volatility is released into the

market and the following days can be

expansive well this may seem like a

conservative approach to the market it's

a sacrifice being made to ensure that

you're trading in high probability

conditions that are like likely to offer

expansion instead of being caught up in

pre-release accumulation with the first

two steps of the weekly protocol covered

we can move to a price chart and

continue on with a real example here on

the chart this vertical line is noting

the weak open rule number one as already

mentioned is avoiding Monday's trading

now that Monday is traded the next step

is to look at the economic calendar to

see which day has the first high impact

news release on the screen now you can

see that 8 30 unemployment claims on

Thursday is the first significant news

driver of the week that means that we

will continue to avoid price through

Wednesday now that Monday through

Wednesday has traded we now have the

advantage to use those three days as

data for the weekly profile it makes it

easier to predict the following days

this now takes us into the third step of

the weekly protocol which is defining

the higher time frame PD arrays four

hour and above for price to reverse from

and the opposing weekly objective here

on a four hour chart using a really

simple 50 FIB anchoring from low to high

the dealing range we can see prices were

tracing into a discount fair value gap

on the opposing end you can see we have

relative equal highs which is acting as

a draw and can be used as the weekly

objective this simple framework here is

good enough to anticipate a move to the

upside on our weekly objective

considering it is in line with one of

our three weekly profiles which would be

a midweek reversal

the fourth and final element of this

weekly protocol is to observe a change

in state of delivery to confirm the

weekly reversal on the left we have a

graph showing a bullish change in state

of delivery the three parts to defining

a change in state of delivery are time

price and a close through opposing

closed candles on the left here we have

an example of a bullish change in state

of delivery the element of time is the

day of week we are anticipating a low

being formed within a defined weekly

profile price is pairing the day of the

week with a four hour or above discount

PD array lastly we look for price to

close above the down close candle or

candles which engage the hard time frame

discount array so this candle here would

depict a change in state of delivery

same ID here but for a bearish change in

state of delivery time is the day of

week we are anticipating a reversal

under a defined loopy profile price is

the four hour above premium PD array the

price is engaging and finally we have a

close below the up close candle or

candles that ran into the premium this

outlines the moment that higher time

frame order flow is Shifting within the

week and is used as a confirmation for

reversals now moving back to our

previous chart example ideally we want

to be looking for a change in state of

delivery on the hourly chart but this is

a good example when the hourly chart

isn't as clear we can move down to the

30 minute to get a more refined view on

price on a 30 minute chart it's much

easier now to see the consecutive down

close candles which engage our hard time

frame discount array remembering the

previous criteria of a change in saved

delivery we have time which is price

reversing on a Wednesday which falls

under a midweek reversal we are pairing

time with price on this reversal with a

four hour discount fair value Gap and

here on this candle we have a close

above the consecutive down close candles

with each part of our weekly protocol

being met we now have daily bias for

Thursday and Friday and can anticipate

an upside expansion on both days

to cover one more example using this

weekly protocol we'll move on to the

following week again step number one is

avoiding Monday's trading now that

Monday is printed we want to go to the

economic calendar and note the first

significant high impact news driver of

the week with the pop-up on the screen

again you can see that Thursday 8 30

unemployment claims is the first

significant high impact news driver of

the week so that means that we will be

sitting out Monday through Wednesday

using Monday through Wednesday price

action as data to identify the current

weekly profile it's clear to see that

the market is in a consolidation so what

we want to do is Mark out the external

High and the external low of that range

now we wait for time and price to line

up to see if the market will engage

either side of the external range on a

Thursday which will confirm a

consolidation reversal profile observing

Thursday's price action we can confirm a

consolidation reversal profile and now

have daily bias for Friday's trading

anticipating a continuation of upside

expansion time is the reversal taking

place on a Thursday price is the

engagement of the external consolidation

low and here we have a close above the

consecutive down close candles which ran

into the low which is a bullish change

in state of delivery as anticipated

under the consolidation reversal profile

price expands higher on Friday through

the opposing end of the consolidation

range

link down below you can find a nine

minute live walkthrough of my executions

on this trade

to do a quick recap of what I've covered

in this video the four weekly protocol

steps are number one avoid Monday's

trading number two no trading days prior

to the first significant high impact

news release of the week number three to

find four hour and above PD arrays to

frame a reversal within a defined weekly

profile and number four observe a change

in state of delivery ideally on the

hourly chart the beauty of this way of

operating is that you don't have to be a

master analyst on these charts you

simply need to follow a system and

that's what I've given you here this is

Baseline for weekly profiles and should

be simple enough for anyone to apply if

they wish that's all I have for you in

this video I hope you enjoyed and I will

see you in the next one

thank you

[Music]