The Tragic Economy of Bosnia & Herzegovina

Economics Explained
15 Aug 202414:36

Summary

TLDRThe video script delves into Bosnia and Herzegovina's complex journey from socialism to capitalism, marked by a tumultuous past and a challenging present. It examines the nation's post-war economic recovery, the impact of the Dayton Agreement on its political and economic landscape, and the current state of its economy, including robust sectors like tourism and manufacturing. Despite progress, the country faces deep-rooted issues such as ineffective governance, unemployment, and population decline, which threaten its stability and future growth.

Takeaways

  • 🌍 Bosnia and Herzegovina has a complex geopolitical history, marked by its struggle for independence from the Socialist Federation of Yugoslavia and the subsequent conflict which ended in 1995.
  • πŸ—οΈ The country underwent a significant economic recovery and restructuring post-conflict, transitioning from socialism to capitalism with varying degrees of success.
  • πŸ“ˆ Bosnia and Herzegovina is now an upper middle-income economy with robust growth in sectors like tourism, energy production, and metal manufacturing, and maintains low public debt and high bank reserves.
  • πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί The nation was granted candidate status for the European Union in 2022, which presents opportunities for increased confidence, market access, and geopolitical risk management.
  • πŸ”„ Despite progress, the country faces deep-rooted challenges including ineffective governance, chronic unemployment, and a declining population, which are exacerbated by ethnic divisions.
  • πŸ›οΈ The Dayton Agreement of 1995 laid the foundation for Bosnia and Herzegovina's current political and economic structure, creating a highly decentralized power system.
  • πŸ“Š The economic recovery was initially driven by foreign aid, followed by pro-capitalist reforms, including privatization and the introduction of a new currency, the convertible mark, which stabilized the economy.
  • πŸ’Ό Administrative burdens and a complex political system have led to a large informal economy and discouraged business registration and entrepreneurship.
  • πŸ“‰ The 2008 financial crisis marked a turning point, with foreign direct investment decreasing and domestic investment not compensating for the loss.
  • πŸ‘₯ High unemployment and emigration rates have resulted in a shrinking labor force and population, with significant implications for the country's economic growth.
  • πŸ’‘ To improve its economic outlook, Bosnia and Herzegovina needs to reduce administrative burdens, tackle corruption, and ensure that state-owned enterprises do not hinder private investment.

Q & A

  • What is the historical context of Bosnia and Herzegovina's geopolitical situation?

    -Bosnia and Herzegovina has a complex history, having been part of the Socialist Federation of Yugoslavia, which dissolved in the early 1990s. The country's independence came at a high cost, with a brutal conflict that ended in 1995, leaving the nation with deep scars and the challenge of rebuilding from a centralized socialist economy to a market-based system.

  • What was the economic condition of Bosnia and Herzegovina after the end of the conflict in 1995?

    -After the conflict, Bosnia and Herzegovina faced a colossal task of economic recovery. The GDP had declined by 84%, and a significant portion of the population was displaced. The recovery was initiated through international aid, with a focus on rebuilding infrastructure and restructuring the economy.

  • How has Bosnia and Herzegovina's economy evolved since transitioning from socialism to capitalism?

    -Bosnia and Herzegovina has transitioned to an upper middle-income economy with robust growth in sectors like tourism, energy production, and metal manufacturing. The country has maintained low levels of public debt and high capital reserves within its banks, indicating a mixed but generally positive economic evolution.

  • What is the significance of Bosnia and Herzegovina's candidate status for the European Union?

    -The candidate status for the European Union, granted in 2022, represents a potential win-win situation for Bosnia and Herzegovina. It could benefit from increased confidence, market access, and participation in supply chains, while the EU could manage geopolitical risks by strengthening ties with a nation that has a significant pro-Russia cohort in its population.

  • What are some of the challenges Bosnia and Herzegovina faces despite its economic progress?

    -Despite progress, Bosnia and Herzegovina faces deeply rooted challenges such as ineffective governance, chronic unemployment, and a steadily declining population. These issues are exacerbated by ethnic divisions and a lack of reconciliation with the difficult history of the country.

  • How did the Dayton Agreement shape the political and economic landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

    -The Dayton Agreement, signed in 1995, ended the war and established the modern political and economic powers of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It decentralized power, creating two separate entities within the country, each with control over their own tax collection, public spending, and development policies, while monetary policy and foreign trade policy remained at the state level.

  • What role did foreign aid play in the initial economic recovery of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

    -Foreign aid played a crucial role in the early years of Bosnia and Herzegovina's recovery, providing funds for the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure. The country received significant aid from the World Bank, the EU, and other international partners, amounting to $5.1 billion.

  • How did the introduction of the convertible mark contribute to Bosnia and Herzegovina's economic stability?

    -The introduction of the convertible mark in 1998 standardized the monetary system and generated financial stability by pegging it to the Deutsche Mark and later the Euro. This fixed exchange rate protected the currency from market fluctuations and attracted foreign investment, fostering confidence in the economy.

  • What are the current challenges to Bosnia and Herzegovina's economic growth and development?

    -Challenges include a high administrative burden for businesses, corruption, and an ineffective government that hinders entrepreneurship and investment. Additionally, the country's political system, with its complex power-sharing structure, slows the legislative process and impedes economic development.

  • What steps could Bosnia and Herzegovina take to improve its economic situation and attract more investment?

    -To improve its economic situation, Bosnia and Herzegovina could reduce administrative burdens for businesses, address corruption, and ensure that state-owned enterprises and public sector spending do not crowd out private investment. Additionally, leveraging the banking sector's capital adequacy ratio to increase long-term funding to key growth areas could stimulate the economy.

Outlines

00:00

πŸ›οΈ Post-War Economic Recovery of Bosnia and Herzegovina

This paragraph discusses the complex geopolitical history of Bosnia and Herzegovina, highlighting its transition from the Socialist Federation of Yugoslavia to an independent nation. The aftermath of the 1995 conflict led to a significant economic recovery effort, shifting the economy from socialism to capitalism. The country has since become an upper middle-income economy with growth in tourism, energy, and metal manufacturing. Despite these advancements, Bosnia and Herzegovina faces challenges such as ineffective governance, unemployment, and a declining population along ethnic lines. The nation's goal of EU membership, granted as candidate status in 2022, presents opportunities but also geopolitical risks due to a pro-Russia cohort within the population.

05:04

πŸ“Š Economic Transition and Challenges of Bosnia and Herzegovina

The second paragraph delves into the economic transition of Bosnia and Herzegovina from market socialism to private enterprise, following the collapse of the USSR and the Berlin Wall. The country's banking sector underwent significant reforms, including privatization and new regulatory frameworks. The introduction of the convertible mark in 1998 stabilized the monetary system by pegging it to the Deutsche Mark and later the Euro. Despite the impressive post-war recovery, characterized by an average annual growth rate of 22%, the economy faces headwinds such as a decrease in foreign direct investment after the 2008 financial crisis and high administrative burdens for businesses. The political system's complexity and ineffectiveness are also highlighted as barriers to economic development, contributing to high unemployment and an informal economy.

10:08

🌐 Bosnia and Herzegovina's Economic Prospects and EU Integration

The final paragraph addresses the future economic prospects of Bosnia and Herzegovina, emphasizing the need for job creation to stem the tide of emigration and population decline. It suggests that the banking sector, with a high capital adequacy ratio, could play a role in funding key growth areas. However, this requires reducing administrative burdens, addressing corruption, and ensuring state-owned enterprises do not overshadow private investment. The potential of EU membership is presented as a historic opportunity for increased confidence and participation in value-added supply chains. Despite recent progress, including anti-corruption laws, the journey to full EU membership is uncertain and will not be a panacea for the country's issues. The paragraph concludes with an assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina's economic standing on the National Leaderboard, noting areas of stability and growth, as well as ongoing challenges.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country in the Balkans with a complex geopolitical history and a significant backstory related to its independence and the subsequent conflict. The video script discusses its transition from socialism to capitalism and its current economic status, illustrating the nation's struggle and recovery post-war.

πŸ’‘Socialist Federation of Yugoslavia

The Socialist Federation of Yugoslavia was a historical political entity in the Balkans that included several republics, including Bosnia and Herzegovina. The script mentions the high cost of independence from this federation, indicating the beginning of Bosnia and Herzegovina's journey towards statehood and the conflicts that arose from this separation.

πŸ’‘Economic Recovery

Economic recovery in the context of the video refers to the process Bosnia and Herzegovina underwent post-conflict to rebuild its infrastructure and restructure its economy. The script highlights the nation's efforts to transition from centralized socialism to a free-market capitalism, which involved significant foreign aid and internal reforms.

πŸ’‘Capitalism

Capitalism is an economic system based on private ownership of the means of production and the creation of goods and services for profit. The video discusses Bosnia and Herzegovina's transition to capitalism, which involved privatization of state-owned enterprises and the introduction of market reforms, marking a shift from its previous socialist economic structure.

πŸ’‘European Union (EU)

The European Union is a political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The script mentions Bosnia and Herzegovina's candidate status for the EU, indicating the country's aspirations for closer integration with Europe, which could bring economic benefits such as increased market access and participation in supply chains.

πŸ’‘Decentralization

Decentralization refers to the distribution of powers from a central authority to local or regional authorities. The Dayton Agreement, mentioned in the script, led to a highly decentralized political and economic system in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with two entities having control over their own economic policies, which is unique for a country of its size.

πŸ’‘Privatization

Privatization is the process of transferring ownership of state-owned enterprises to private entities. The script discusses the privatization of large state-owned enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina as part of the economic transition, which opened opportunities for foreign investment and the introduction of new banking regulations.

πŸ’‘Currency Peg

A currency peg is a monetary policy where a country's currency is fixed to the value of another single currency or a basket of other currencies. The script explains how Bosnia and Herzegovina introduced a new currency, the convertible mark, which was pegged to the Deutsche Mark and later the Euro, providing financial stability and attracting foreign investment.

πŸ’‘Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Foreign Direct Investment refers to an investor or a company from one country investing in business or production in another country. The video script notes the importance of FDI in Bosnia and Herzegovina's economy, particularly in banking and manufacturing, and how it has contributed to the country's modernization and development.

πŸ’‘Administrative Burdens

Administrative burdens refer to the costs and time associated with complying with regulations and bureaucratic procedures. The script points out that Bosnia and Herzegovina has high administrative burdens for businesses, which discourages entrepreneurship and investment, affecting the country's economic growth and development.

πŸ’‘Emigration

Emigration is the act of leaving one's country to live in another. The script discusses the significant emigration from Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly of its working-age population, which has led to a decline in population and a reliance on remittances, posing challenges to the country's economic sustainability.

Highlights

Bosnia and Herzegovina has a complex geopolitical history and has transitioned from socialism to capitalism with mixed success.

The nation experienced robust economic growth post-conflict, particularly in tourism, energy, and metal manufacturing.

Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted candidate status for the European Union in 2022, offering potential benefits in market access and geopolitical risk management.

Despite EU relations, the country faces deep-rooted challenges including ineffective governance, unemployment, and population decline.

The Dayton Agreement of 1995 laid the foundation for Bosnia and Herzegovina's modern political and economic structure.

The country's decentralization is unique for its size, with entities controlling their own economic policies except for monetary policy and foreign trade.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's GDP took until 2003 to recover to pre-war levels, with an average annual growth rate of 22%.

Post-war recovery was significantly aided by international foreign aid, including $5.1 billion from the World Bank and the EU.

Economic reforms included privatization of state-owned enterprises and the introduction of a new regulatory framework for the banking sector.

The introduction of the convertible mark in 1998 stabilized the currency and attracted foreign investment.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's economy has been affected by a decrease in foreign direct investment following the 2008 financial crisis.

The country has high administrative burdens for businesses, ranking poorly for ease of doing business and construction permits.

Political complexity and a tripartite leadership structure contribute to an ineffective government and slow legislative process.

Unemployment rates have declined, but this is attributed to a shrinking labor force as workers emigrate for better opportunities.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's banking sector has the capacity to increase funding to growth areas but requires administrative and corruption reforms.

State-owned enterprises and public sector spending may be crowding out private investment, which needs to be addressed for economic growth.

Progress towards EU integration has been noted, with new anti-corruption laws and recommendations for advanced negotiations.

EU membership is not a guaranteed fix for the country's issues and Bosnia and Herzegovina must strive for more than compromise.

Bosnia and Herzegovina scores an average of 4 out of 10 on the Economics Explained National Leaderboard, reflecting its economic and political challenges.

Transcripts

play00:00

This is Bosnia and Herzegovina, a nation that is home to perhaps the darkest geopolitical

play00:04

backstory in all of Europe, which is saying a lot. For many, the all too recent memories

play00:08

of conflict represent the high cost of independence from the Socialist Federation of Yugoslavia,

play00:13

a large state in the western Balkans that no longer exists. The end of the conflict in 1995

play00:17

triggered the beginning of a colossal economic recovery effort, which not only sought to physically

play00:21

rebuild Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also sought to restructure the economy away from centralized

play00:26

free markets. Almost 30 years on and the nation has transitioned from socialism to capitalism

play00:32

with mixed success. Now an upper middle income economy, Bosnia and Herzegovina is experiencing

play00:36

robust growth in tourism, energy production and metal manufacturing whilst maintaining low

play00:40

levels of public debt and high capital reserves within its banks. What's more, the country has

play00:44

had a clear goal to work towards having been formally granted candidate status for the European

play00:48

Union in 2022. This is potentially a win-win situation, with Bosnia and Herzegovina benefiting

play00:53

from increased confidence, market access and participation in supply chains, whilst the EU

play00:57

manages geopolitical risks by befriending a nation with a significant pro-Russia cohort in its

play01:02

population. But regardless of its relationship with the EU, Bosnia and Herzegovina has a number

play01:06

of deeply rooted challenges, which have, if anything, worsened since becoming an independent

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state following the war. Ineffective governance, chronic unemployment and a steadily declining

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population are adding tension to a nation divided by ethnic lines, who, it is felt by many,

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are still not reconciled its difficult history. So, how did the newly independent nation bounce

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back from war and genocide? Why has the economic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina stagnated?

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And finally, what opportunities and challenges lie ahead for the nation? After we've done all

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of that, we can put Bosnia and Herzegovina on the Economics Explained Leaderboard.

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For better or more likely worse, it's impossible to understand the modern economy of Bosnia and

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Herzegovina without at least a cursory understanding of its all too recent history. In the late 1980s

play02:32

and early 1990s, a wave of national sentiment rose across Yugoslavia which consisted of six

play02:36

federations with their own cultures and identities. After Slovenia and Croatia broke away from Yugoslavia,

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Bosnia and Herzegovina held an independence referendum in 1992. The outcome was in favour

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of independence which was largely welcomed by Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats but rejected by

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Yugoslavia and Bosnian Serbs who made up 33% of the population. Conflict broke out shortly after as

play02:56

the different ethnic factions fought for territory in an escalating struggle that eventually led to

play03:01

NATO bombing and UN peacekeeper troop deployment. In total almost 100,000 people died, 2.2 million

play03:07

people were displaced and GDP declined by 84%. After international efforts for a peaceful solution,

play03:13

the war ended in 1995 with the signing of the Dayton Agreement and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base

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in Ohio USA and it's this agreement which founded the modern politics and economic powers of Bosnia

play03:22

and Herzegovina to this day. Obviously that's the incredibly oversimplified summary of an endlessly

play03:27

complex issue but the takeaway was that this was a bad set of circumstances to begin the process

play03:32

of nation building especially since a lot of these core issues never truly went away. Founded on a

play03:36

compromise in power sharing, the Dayton Agreement effectively split the state into two geographically

play03:41

separate entities. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the central, south and west of the

play03:46

state which is controlled by the Bosniaks and the Bosnian Croats and the Republic Serbs go in the

play03:50

north and the east of the state controlled by the Bosnian Serbs. Because of the Dayton Agreement,

play03:54

power in Bosnia and Herzegovina is highly decentralized with both of these entities in

play03:58

complete control of their own tax collection, public spending, development policies and welfare

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programs. The only economic powers that lie at a state level are monetary policy which is managed

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by the central bank, foreign trade policy and macroeconomic coordination. This level of decentralization

play04:12

for a relatively small country is what makes Bosnia and Herzegovina unique and it was a requirement

play04:16

for the piece that was desperately needed to enable the economic recovery that followed. It took

play04:20

until 2003 for the GDP of the nation to eventually recover back to levels last seen in 1990 requiring

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an average annual growth rate of 22% following the end of the war. And yes, much of this growth

play04:32

derives from redeployment of huge spare capacity in the labour market but even when these factors

play04:36

are accounted for there's no denying that a 22% average annual growth rate over almost an entire

play04:40

decade is an impressive feat. So how did this recovery actually happen? In the first years of

play04:46

peace a lot of the recovery can of course be attributed to the vast sums of post-war foreign

play04:50

aid that Bosnia and Herzegovina receive from the international community for reconstruction of

play04:54

damaged and destroyed infrastructure which includes $5.1 billion from the World Bank, the EU

play04:59

and partner donors. As time went on however the economic growth became increasingly driven by

play05:04

the pro-capitalist reforms that constituted the nation's transition from market socialism to

play05:08

private enterprise. To be clear this transition of economic systems was not as extreme as other

play05:12

countries across central and eastern Europe following the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the

play05:15

dissolution of the USSR. As part of Yugoslavia Bosnia and Herzegovina was already using free

play05:20

markets to allocate production and exchange with enterprises either being state-owned or

play05:24

worker-owned and managed. In the later half of the 1990s and early 2000s large state-owned

play05:28

enterprises started to be privatised which signalled opportunity to European banks who

play05:32

started to provide liquidity and management expertise to the country's newly reformed banking

play05:36

sector. Insolvent banks were closed, state-owned banks were privatised and new regulatory framework

play05:41

was introduced to drive return on investment and manage systemic risk. Additional private property

play05:46

laws were also introduced alongside the establishment of key institutions such as

play05:49

two stock exchanges and the central bank. After the war many different currencies were circulating

play05:54

with no generally accepted standard of payment and so a key factor of the recovery was the

play05:58

introduction of a new currency the convertible mark in 1998. Not only did it standardise the

play06:03

monetary system but it also generated financial stability since it was pegged to the Deutsche

play06:07

Mark and eventually the Euro in 1999. A currency as payment has a fixed exchange rate to another

play06:12

currency. The value of the currency is not affected by supply and demand in the foreign

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exchange market against the peg because the central bank cancels out large movements by

play06:19

counteracting the market when it needs to using its reserve holdings of both currencies.

play06:23

When there's excess demand for the domestic currency on the market the central bank will

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sell some of this domestic currency reserve to match the success. On the other hand if there's

play06:30

excess supply of the domestic currency on the market the central bank will buy the excess using

play06:34

its reserves of the peg currency. This ensures balance in the markets preventing the currency

play06:38

from deviating from the currency it's pegged to and as a result the Bosnian Herzegovina economy

play06:42

benefits from the stability that the Euroback currency brings. Now it's worth noting that peg

play06:46

currencies don't always work in practice and there is some risk involved. Take for example the

play06:51

Russian ruble in 1998 which was pegged to the US dollar. Investors were selling the ruble hard and

play06:56

fast which forced the central bank of Russia to buy the ruble using US dollars to defend its currency

play07:00

value. After selling 27 billion of its US dollar reserves in under a year the central bank ran

play07:05

out of US dollars and the peg finally broke. The ruble devalued by two-thirds in just over a month

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which meant the price of import a good sword causing inflation and huge drops in real living

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standards. So far however the Bosnian Herzegovina and central bank has successfully maintained

play07:19

the pegged exchange rate which has fostered confidence in the currency and attracted significant

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amounts of foreign investment. This rewrote the nation's narrative from one of post-war recovery

play07:27

to one of rapid modernization and development. The large inflows of foreign direct investment

play07:31

generated employment improved infrastructure and helped to establish key export sectors in the

play07:35

national economy such as electricity and metal manufacturing. This was a pretty standard and

play07:39

promising development path for a country with close access to both markets in the east and the west

play07:44

but it didn't last forever. Fast forward to the present day and foreign direct investment

play07:48

still makes up a huge portion of the economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina particularly in banking

play07:53

and manufacturing. The latest statistics value the total stock of FDI to be worth about 9.3 billion

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US dollars. However net inflows decreased significantly after the 2008 financial crisis which like so

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many other nations appears to be a turning point for the trajectory of the economy.

play08:07

Private investment from within the country has not picked up this slack either and the reason for

play08:11

this is that Bosnia and Herzegovina has some of the highest administrative burdens for business

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not just across Europe but across the entire world. In 2020 the World Bank found that there are only

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six countries in the world where registering a new business is more difficult. The country is also

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ranked 173rd for ease of doing business with construction permits and 141st for paying taxes.

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Although most recent data is a few years old now and the country ranks slightly better for other

play08:35

ease of doing business metrics this is clearly discouraging for both foreign and domestic

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investors who may not have the time and legal know-how to properly administer their business

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operations in such a complicated regulatory framework. This explains why Bosnia and Herzegovina

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has a large informal economy which is a whole other problem itself. These issues are largely

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caused by the political system within Bosnia and Herzegovina which to put it frankly is overly

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complex, fragmented and ineffective at taking action to drive economic development. While the

play09:01

date and agreement was heralded as a success story of international peace brokering in the

play09:05

modern era during the 1990s you were thinking ahead to the implications that power sharing

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would have on the overall functioning of the government in the long term once this piece was

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achieved. The political complexity begins right at the top with a tripartite political leadership

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structure. Every four years three presidents are elected who represent each of the ethnic

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constituents of the nation Bosniaks, Bosnia Croats and Bosnia Serbs. These three presidents rotate

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every eight months until the four year term is over and each one has veto power to block decisions

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which they believe are against the interests of their ethnic group. This high degree of power

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sharing has embedded political friction into the government from the top down preventing

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political solutions and slowing the legislative process. So whilst this political structure

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has undoubtedly helped sustain peace it has created an ineffective government that's unable

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to foster entrepreneurship. This has reduced investment causing spare capacity in the labour

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marker where the unemployment rate is 10.7%. This has dropped significantly since 2015 where the

play09:57

rate was 27.7%. Taking these statistics at face value you might think the declining unemployment

play10:03

rate would be a positive sign but the reality for Bosnia and Herzegovina is that this has been

play10:07

driven by a shrinking labour force as working age adults leave the country to find employment elsewhere.

play10:12

The scale of the issue is demonstrated by the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina has one of the

play10:15

largest emigrant to population ratios in the world causing a reliance on remittances for

play10:20

economic growth rather than investment into its own economy. Perhaps even more concerningly emigration

play10:25

is leading to population decline with the total population having already decreased by 23% since

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2000. So given such a steep decline of fundamental economic factors is there any hope for the future?

play10:37

In order to reverse or at the very least slow the exodus of productive workers Bosnia and Herzegovina

play10:42

needs to improve its economic offer to its citizens by increasing the quality and quantity of jobs

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available. Ask most macroeconomists and they will say that investment is the key to achieving this.

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Fortunately for the nation there looks to be capacity for ramping this up. Currently the capital

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adequacy ratio of the banking sector which controls the level of risk and the ability to protect

play11:00

depositors sits at 19.5%. This is well above the regulatory minimum of 12% which means the

play11:06

domestic banking sector could increase long-term funding to key growth areas in the economy such

play11:10

as energy, metal manufacturing and IT. To do this however three things need to happen. First the

play11:15

discouragingly high administrative burdens of operating a business need to be reduced to

play11:18

incentivise entrepreneurship. Some efforts have already been taken to address this through the

play11:22

digitisation of tax filing and customs declarations for trade but more widespread reforms are needed

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to significantly reduce administration and encourage entrepreneurship. Secondly corruption

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in the political system in the banking sector needs to be addressed in order for capital to be

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more effectively deployed in the economy. Thirdly the government must ensure that state-owned enterprises

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and public sector spending are not crowding out private investment. This final point is particularly

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important since the state is a huge economic power with fiscal revenues making up 44% of GDP

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and state-owned enterprises having a presence larger than they do in any other country in the

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western Balkans. Clearly Bosnia and Herzegovina's transition to a market economy only went so far

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with the state still having significant ownership states in over 550 enterprises.

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This is also likely to be an important point of future discussions on advancing its membership

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prospects with the European Union. This represents a historic opportunity for the nation that would

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increase confidence and enable more participation and value added supply chains. So far the nation

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has made good progress towards EU integration since becoming a candidate in 2022 especially having

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introduced new anti-corruption laws. In light of this progress the European Commission has

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recommended that advanced negotiations begin with Bosnia and Herzegovina to plan and agree on a pathway

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to its full membership. While this is promising it's not likely that the nation will become a

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member for many years to come. It took Croatia eight years from this stage to become a member

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whilst Turkey has been in negotiations for almost 20 years. Point being there's no guarantee of

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becoming a member once the nation gets to this stage and with the range of political and economic

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challenges that Bosnia and Herzegovina possesses the weight could be won to test the limits of

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political patience. What's more is that EU membership alone will not fix the country's

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issues. Just ask Greece Spain and Portugal. Bosnia and Herzegovina has immense potential

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but it has to do more than just strive for compromise to get there.

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Okay now it's time to put Bosnia and Herzegovina on the Economics Explained National Leaderboard.

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In terms of size Bosnia and Herzegovina has a GDP of 27 billion US dollars which means

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most national economies are larger. It ranks amongst Trinidad and Tobago and Zimbabwe giving

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it a 2 out of 10. That is spread across a population of 3.2 million people which means the GDP per

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capita is 8,426 US dollars which puts it below the global average and a long way away from the EU

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average giving the economy a 4 out of 10. Stability and confidence is a mixed picture. While the

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central bank has maintained the currency peg with the euro and the public debt levels are low the

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declining population and ineffective government are weakening the confidence in the economy.

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On top of this ethnic divisions are beginning to stir up again as political leaders from the Serb

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territory of the nation increasingly challenge the legitimacy of the central government and call

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for their own independence. In light of this it gets a 5 out of 10. Growth is steady averaging 3%

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since 2000 but it is all bit stagnated since the 2008 financial crisis so it gets a 5 out of 10.

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And finally industry. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a solid manufacturing base especially in metal

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and electricity production. However the economy remains a net importer and there is room to

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further develop its industry and increase productivity and exports. It gets a 4 out of 10.

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Overall this gives Bosnia and Herzegovina an average score of 4 out of 10 putting it down here on

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the leaderboard. If you liked this video then you'll also like the video we did on the economy of

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Turkey which covers similar themes of how different political and economic systems affect production,

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inequality and growth. Thanks for watching mate. Bye.

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Related Tags
Economic RecoveryPost-War BosniaYugoslaviaMarket TransitionEuropean UnionCapitalismSocialismGeopolitical RisksEthnic DivisionsInvestment ClimateBanking Sector