Becoming a Market Wizard: Jason Shapiro's Journey to Success

Summary

杰森·夏皮罗分享了他30多年的交易经历，从年轻时的轻率交易到管理自己的商品交易顾问（CTA）基金。他强调了不与市场对抗、不盲目逆势交易的重要性，以及如何通过跟踪交易者持仓报告来避免陷入困境。夏皮罗还讲述了他如何通过纪律和过程来保持交易的一致性和成功，鼓励交易者发展自己的交易过程，并严格遵守它以实现长期盈利。

Takeaways

• 😀 贾森·夏皮罗通过分享自己30多年的交易经历，希望帮助他人避免自己曾经犯过的错误。
• 📈 他目前管理着一个商品交易顾问（CTA），也就是对冲基金，专注于期货市场，并且拥有一些理解他交易方式的机构客户。
• 🔄 他的交易策略具有与其他市场回报流零到负相关性，通过与市场大众持相反立场来实现。
• 🎓 贾森没有在常春藤盟校学习，高中成绩不佳，但在大学期间经历了人生的转折点，开始认真学习并掌握了学习方法。
• 💼 他的第一份工作在亚洲的一家商业银行，由于觉得无聊而开始交易，并在牛市中获得了成功。
• 📉 然而，在牛市结束后，他由于缺乏风险管理而失去了所有收益。
• 📚 在伦敦攻读硕士学位期间，他通过交易学习到了坐着不动比频繁交易更能赚钱的教训。
• 🌊 在泰国交易时，他因为过度自信而遭受失败，意识到不要与市场趋势对抗。
• 📊 他通过使用交易者承诺指数（Commitment of Traders, CoT）来避免过早地逆市操作，并强调了风险管理的重要性。
• 🚫 他认识到逆市交易不应该是价格上的逆市，而应该是参与度上的逆市，即与市场大众持相反立场。
• 💼 贾森曾经尝试过创立自己的对冲基金，但发现管理团队和筹集资金并不是他的兴趣所在，他更愿意专注于交易本身。
• 📝 他强调了制定交易过程、保持纪律以及跟踪交易表现的重要性，建议交易者记录自己的盈亏和交易思路，以优化交易策略。

Q & A

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到了他个人交易生涯的哪些重要阶段？

Jason Shapiro提到了他的个人交易生涯包括开始交易的早期阶段，在香港的牛市中亏损和盈利的经历，去伦敦读硕士期间的交易经历，以及后来管理自己的基金和最终管理CTA的经历。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到他管理的CTA是什么？

CTA是商品交易顾问，也就是一种对冲基金，专门在期货市场上交易。Jason Shapiro管理的CTA具有与其他大多数投资组合回报流零到负相关性的特点。

Jason Shapiro如何描述他高中时期的生活？

Jason Shapiro描述他高中时期生活为不太专注于学业，更多是玩摇滚乐队、追求女孩和制造麻烦。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到了哪些对他交易生涯有重要影响的教训？

他提到了不要与市场趋势对抗、不要仅仅因为价格高就做空或价格低就做多、学会使用风险管理工具、利用交易者承诺指数(Commitment of Traders, COT)来避免逆市操作等教训。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到了哪些个人经历对他后来的交易风格有影响？

他提到了在大学时期的觉醒、在亚洲银行工作的经历、在香港的交易经历、在伦敦读硕士期间的交易经历，以及在泰国海滩交易失败的经历等。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到他如何学会交易？

他通过阅读大量金融、经济和市场的书籍，以及实际交易中的经验教训来学习交易。他强调了理解材料而不是死记硬背，以及学会如何学习的重要性。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到了哪些因素帮助他形成了自己的交易过程？

他提到了使用交易者承诺指数(COT)、不与市场趋势对抗、等待市场确认、以及从新闻中寻找入市信号等因素。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到他如何管理自己的基金？

他提到了管理基金时需要面对的挑战，包括筹集资金、支付员工薪水和办公空间等开销，以及后来将基金转变为系统化交易的过程。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到他为什么决定关闭自己的基金？

他提到了管理基金需要花费大量时间在筹集资金和运营上，这与他想要专注于交易的愿望不符，加上个人生活的压力，因此他决定关闭基金。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到他如何重新回到交易市场？

他在关闭基金后，花了一年半的时间在农场上休息和思考，最终决定回到交易市场，因为他认为自己在这方面有专长，并且有一套能赚钱的交易过程。

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到他给交易者的哪些建议？

他建议交易者发展自己的交易过程，保持纪律，跟踪盈亏和交易思路，从错误中学习，保持交易的长期视角，不要因为短期的损失而气馁。

Outlines

00:00

😀 个人交易历程分享

Jason Shapiro在视频中分享了他30多年的交易经历，目的是帮助观众避免他曾经犯过的错误。他目前管理着一个商品交易顾问（CTA），即期货市场的对冲基金，拥有一些机构客户。他强调了个人学习的重要性，并分享了自己如何通过经历和错误来加速学习曲线。Jason提到他的交易策略具有与其他投资组合回报流负相关或零相关性，这为投资者的组合增加了价值。他还回顾了自己高中和大学时期的学习经历，以及如何从一名玩乐队、追求女孩的普通学生，转变为认真学习并在房地产办公室工作，从而学习了金融市场知识。

05:02

📈 交易生涯的起伏与教训

Jason Shapiro讲述了他早期在亚洲银行工作的经历，以及他如何开始交易并迅速获得成功，但随后在牛市结束后失去了所有收益。他强调了风险管理的重要性，并分享了在香港交易时的一些教训，包括在市场波动时保持冷静，以及如何通过阅读和学习来提高自己的交易技能。他还提到了在伦敦攻读硕士学位期间的交易经历，以及如何从每日图表中学习，并意识到坐着不动有时比频繁交易更能赚钱。

10:04

📊 交易哲学与市场理解

Jason Shapiro分享了他在泰国海滩交易时的失败经历，以及如何从Alan Greenspan关于市场非理性繁荣的言论中学到了不要与市场趋势对抗的教训。他讲述了自己在互联网泡沫期间的交易经历，以及如何通过使用交易者承诺指数（Commitment of Traders, COT）来避免过早地逆市场操作。Jason强调了不要仅仅因为价格高就做空，或者因为价格低就买入，而应该关注市场参与者的行为。他还谈到了自己如何将交易过程系统化，并最终关闭了自己的基金，以追求更符合自己兴趣的交易方式。

15:04

💼 交易纪律与个人成长

Jason Shapiro讲述了他如何重新回到交易市场，并建立了自己的交易过程和纪律。他强调了记录交易和交易思路的重要性，以及如何通过跟踪和分析这些记录来改进交易策略。Jason分享了他如何通过管理自己的业务和对客户的承诺来保持交易纪律，并鼓励观众发展自己的交易过程，即使在面对市场低迷时期也要保持坚持。他以自己的经历为例，鼓励那些可能经历过困难时期的交易者，表明即使没有哈佛学位或被认为是天才，只要有正确的方法和纪律，也能在交易中取得成功。

Keywords

💡交易

交易指的是在金融市场上买卖证券、商品、货币等金融工具的行为。在视频中，Jason Shapiro分享了他30多年的交易经历，这是理解他个人历程和交易哲学的核心。例如，他提到自己管理一个商品交易顾问（CTA），这是一种专门从事期货市场交易的对冲基金。

💡学习曲线

学习曲线是指个人或集体获取新技能或知识的速度和效率。视频中，Jason希望通过分享自己的经验，帮助观众加速自己的学习曲线，避免重复他曾经犯过的错误。这体现了他希望观众能从他的个人经历中吸取教训，更快地掌握交易技能。

💡风险管理

风险管理是指识别、评估和控制可能导致损失的风险的过程。视频中，Jason提到了他年轻时由于缺乏风险管理而亏损的经历，以及他后来如何通过使用风险管理工具来改善自己的交易策略。

💡期货市场

期货市场是一个金融交易市场，交易者可以买卖期货合约，这些合约是在未来某一特定日期以特定价格买卖某种资产的协议。Jason目前管理的CTA就是在期货市场上进行交易的，他通过这种交易方式为客户提供与大多数其他投资组合负相关的回报流。

💡效率前沿

效率前沿是现代投资组合理论中的一个概念，表示给定风险水平下可能获得的最大预期回报的投资组合集合。Jason提到，通过将他的回报流加入客户的投资组合，可以推动效率前沿，从而在相同风险水平下获得超额回报。

💡纪律

纪律是指遵循既定规则或过程的自我控制能力。在视频中，Jason强调了纪律在交易过程中的重要性，他提到自己如何通过坚持交易过程和记录交易来提高自己的交易表现，并建议观众发展自己的交易过程并严格遵守。

💡市场确认

市场确认是指市场行为与交易者预期一致的情况，作为交易决策的依据。Jason在视频中提到了等待市场确认的重要性，例如他提到的Alan Greenspan关于市场“非理性繁荣”的评论，以及市场对此的反应，都是市场确认的例子。

💡交易者持仓报告

交易者持仓报告（Commitments of Traders Report）是一种公开的报告，显示市场中各类交易者的持仓情况。Jason发现这个报告帮助他避免了过早地逆市操作，并成为他交易过程中的一个重要工具。

💡对冲基金

对冲基金是一种使用多种策略来实现正回报的投资基金，通常面向特定的投资者群体。Jason曾经尝试过创立自己的对冲基金，但后来因为管理压力和个人原因而关闭，转而专注于更小规模的交易和资金管理。

💡市场心理

市场心理是指影响市场参与者决策的心理因素，如恐慌、贪婪、自信等。Jason在视频中提到了市场心理对交易决策的影响，比如他年轻时由于过度自信而导致的亏损，以及后来如何通过理解市场心理来改进自己的交易策略。

💡交易过程

交易过程是指交易者用来识别交易机会、做出交易决策、管理风险和评估交易结果的一系列步骤。Jason强调了发展和遵循一个有效的交易过程的重要性，这是他从自己的经历中学到的一个关键教训。

Highlights

Jason Shapiro分享了他30多年的交易经历，强调个人经历可以帮助加速学习曲线，避免重复他犯过的错误。

他目前管理着一个商品交易顾问（CTA），即一个在期货市场交易的对冲基金，拥有一些了解他操作方式的机构客户。

他的交易策略具有与其他大多数回报流零到负相关的特点，通过与大众持仓相反来实现。

Jason没有上过常春藤联盟学校，高中成绩不佳，但大学时期开始认真学习，通过实践学会了如何学习。

他强调理解材料的重要性，而不是死记硬背，这对他的交易学习有重要影响。

Jason的第一份工作在商业银行，他因交易更刺激而开始涉足交易领域。

在90年代初的牛市中，他因高杠杆操作而赚得盆满钵满，但最终在市场转向时失去了所有收益。

他在香港的经历教会了他风险管理的重要性，并开始更加注重交易策略和技术分析。

Jason提到了在伦敦攻读硕士学位期间的交易经历，以及如何通过市场验证来确认交易决策。

他强调了坐着不动比频繁交易更能赚钱的教训，以及不要与市场趋势对抗的重要性。

在泰国交易时，他因过度自信而遭受失败，这教会了他不要自视过高，要更加关注市场信号。

Jason讲述了他如何使用交易者承诺（Commitment of Traders, COT）数据来避免过早逆市操作。

他强调了逆市交易者应该关注市场参与者的持仓情况，而不是仅仅因为价格高就做空或价格低就做多。

Jason分享了他创办自己的对冲基金的经历，以及如何从管理基金的压力中解脱出来。

他讲述了自己如何通过简化交易过程，专注于系统化策略，来提高交易效率。

Jason最终决定关闭基金，休息一段时间，重新找回交易的热情，并以更小规模的方式重新开始。

他强调了制定交易过程、保持纪律以及如何通过跟踪盈亏和交易来改进交易策略的重要性。

Jason鼓励交易者即使在困难时期也要保持积极，通过发展和遵循交易过程来实现长期盈利。

Transcripts

foreign

[Music]

February 25th 2023 I'm Jason Shapiro

with crowdedmarketreport.com

today I was going to talk a little bit

about my personal journey through this

whole trading thing over the years with

the idea that

hopefully some of my experiences both

good and bad can help you to accelerate

your learning curve and you won't have

to make the same mistakes I made

obviously traditionally most people

don't learn like that most people have

to learn for themselves and go through

their mistakes just like I had to go

through my mistakes but you know at the

very worst as you go through them maybe

you can you know listen to this video

and see that there are other people that

have gone through that and and it can be

relatable and that you can get through

those which we all need on bad days and

after bad runs in the market you know

we're all pretty similar as it is so

we're all going to go through the same

learning experiences it's all just a

question of how you come out the other

side so on that note let me start at the

end I guess which is where I am now I'm

55 I've been trading just over 30 years

I currently for the last six years

manage a CTA which is a commodity

trading advisor which is a hedge fund

that trades in the Futures markets and I

have a handful of institutional clients

who understand what I do and allocate me

money

for that I work by myself no employees

out of my house which is somewhere I

always wanted to be and while it's great

that I'm here now I can tell you that it

was a 25-year journey to get here and

not an easy one and just to get into it

the reason that my clients give me money

is I manage a process that if you have

listened to sort of my other videos and

how I do things you know I create a

return stream that has zero to negative

correlation to most other return streams

out there and the reasons for that are

pretty obvious you know I'm essentially

going opposite Mass positioning so if

everybody's short and I'm getting long

and everybody's long and I'm getting

short then over time clearly my

correlation to them is going to be

mostly negative and clearly zero and if

I can make positive returns

and have no to negative correlation to

other return streams in somebody's

portfolio then you know that obviously

adds value to their portfolio what it

does to get into Financial theory is it

it'll push out the efficient Frontier of

their portfolio which means that for

equal amount of risk that they're taking

they can get excess return in their

portfolio by putting my return stream in

there and that's what I do now and like

I say it's been a long 25-year journey

to get here so let's go through that I

first of all I didn't go to any kind of

Ivy League school or anything like that

I think that my GPA when I came out of

high school was 1.8 which was not very

good I don't remember even once bringing

a book home from school all I used to do

was you know play in a rock band and

chase girls and and get into trouble

that was my high school life and just as

an aside my uh in my yearbook they did a

page of you know teachers quotes that

were like funny little quotes from the

teachers that were supposed to epitomize

who they were and the vice principal of

my high school who was a disciplinarian

his quote was in capital letters Jason

what an exclamation point so that's who

I was right I ended up going to the

University of South Florida which I like

to refer to as the Harvard of the Tampa

Bay area and when I got there I

continued to fool around my freshman

year you know first time away from home

and all the freedom in the world to go

and do all kinds of stupid things and at

a certain point early in my sophomore

year I with a bunch of my a group of my

drunk friends uh got arrested and thrown

a overnight in jail and I came out of

there and that was sort of the wake up

moment for me you know I decided that

this is not what I want my life to be

like it's time to get serious and from

that point on I got I got very serious

you know I started doing well in school

I worked three days a week full-time job

in a real estate office where I learned

a lot about you know the corporate world

and how to work in an office and I used

to read a lot I used to spend days at

the Barnes and Noble reading books about

Finance economics markets everything I

could get my hands on and what that

period I thought really taught me if

anything was how to learn which is very

important like in school it wasn't like

I was coming home every night and

reading my textbooks all night it was

more like I made sure I went to class I

listened to the professors and I made

sure I understand what they were talking

about if I didn't understand what they

were talking about I would raise my hand

and ask and if I still didn't understand

I would go to their office hours and I

would ask and have them take me through

it and make sure I actually understood

the material I wasn't really memorizing

things but I wrote I was trying to

understand the material

um and since month it was math you know

um that could be done right and so then

I could show up to the test if I knew I

understood everything they were talking

about in class I could show up to the

test and I could do very well because I

knew what they were talking about so

really it was a question of learning how

to learn since I hadn't done that up to

that point so from there uh given that

Goldman Sachs or any of these Wall

Street houses were not pounding down my

door to recruit me out of the University

of South Florida I moved to Asia my

first job was with a bank a Commercial

Bank and it was not really great for me

it was pretty boring and I started like

a lot of people to trade because it

seemed a little more exciting and it

seemed like a more exciting way to try

and make money and I think like a lot of

people out there I started trading and

what was a bull market this was like the

early 90s in Hong Kong and over the next

I don't know three or four years the

market in Hong Kong doubled so I started

trading and from the long side like most

people will and you know I was very very

leveraged because I was very young it

just seemed to make sense to me you can

make a dollar why not make 10 right you

never thinking about risk when you're

that young or that an experience and I

did turn like I don't know 30 grand

until I got on a four or five hundred

grand over a three year period

and I went out and did the typical thing

that a stupid kid like that will do you

know I bought a sports car and all that

and once the bull market ended I lost

all that money and didn't even have

enough money to put gas in my sports car

so there I was right and then I kind of

startled over and started trying again

this time trying to use wrist man more

risk management tools you know I was

reading a lot about trading and

technical analysis and I read the market

wizard book which had just come out um

at that point and I started learning

about you know things like you can't

lose all your money otherwise it's not

going to last very long so started doing

okay made some money trading a little

bits here and there and after a few

years I quit my job and I went to school

to get my Master's Degree in London and

traded that whole year and there was an

important lesson during this year which

was that this was pre-internet so every

day my broker was faxing me like the

daily chart of the Hang Seng Index and I

was trying to figure out where I was

going to make money tomorrow over the

next day or two that was kind my range

one to three day type of thing and I was

putting around and I was doing okay I

was positive I was making money and then

I had a trade and I'm sorry if some of

this stuff was already in the market

Wizards book but these are the most

important lessons so it's worth

repeating I guess but um I had a trade

where I was long the Hang Seng Index I

was bullish for whatever reason and I

was going away for a month during my

Christmas break to Africa where I was

not going to have any access this was

pre-cell phone days and I said to my

broker look put a stop here

otherwise I'll call you in a month and

see where we are and I called him in a

month and the market was like I don't

know 20 higher and I made a bunch of

money on that trade and the key lesson

there for me which was a big lesson was

I made more money in that month of

sitting than I had made the whole year

of trying to trade around you know which

I thought I was kind of good at right

and trust me that during that month

there were days when the hangsy index

was down but I didn't know about them so

I couldn't panic I couldn't you know

freak out about it there was nothing I

could do because I didn't even see it

but net net over the period I made a

good amount of money more than I made

trading around and that was an important

lesson to me you know the money is made

in this sitting catch these big moves

catch it 10 15 20 move over a period of

time rather than try and job the market

all day and all night and you know just

drive yourself crazy and not really get

very far so that was a big lesson for me

and that sort of started to build into

my trading process of trying to catch

bigger moves over time which means you

have to sit through days when the market

goes against you clearly because it's

not going to go in your favor every

single day and then I finished school

and I I moved to Thailand and started

trading from the beach of Thailand and

of course I was 27 years old and I

thought that I was you know the smartest

guy on Earth because look at me

everybody's working and everyone's

putting on their suit every day and here

I am you know on my shorts on the beach

trading the markets and what a hero I am

and so of course it took me about eight

months to blow out on on that with that

kind of attitude you know feeling

invincible and the way I blew out there

was

the U.S stock market was going up a lot

and me trying to be Mr contrarian I was

shorting it and I can specifically

remember Alan Greenspan who was the

chairman of the Federal Reserve at the

time came out one day and said you know

the market could be suffering through

some irrational exuberance here

and I was like there you go me and Alan

Greenspan are the only people that

understand what's going on here and that

day the stock market closed up it was

down like three percent on the open it

closed up on the day and that was

telling you something right the tape

obviously was telling you something this

is where I really started paying it much

much more attention to the tape right

and at the time I felt like I couldn't

get long because I've been shorting this

thing for so long and losing money that

how could I get along here now I'm going

to get long and it's going to go down

I'm going to not only miss the down move

that I've been seeing coming but I'm

going to lose money on it so I couldn't

do it I was stuck and this is where a

lot of people get right especially from

the short side which I talked about in

last week's video and therefore I never

made the money back but the lesson was

there to me the important lesson was

don't fight the tape which everyone

always says but I had to learn myself

don't fight the tape When Alan Greenspan

is saying there's a rash on Zoo run so

the Market's closing up well then maybe

it's not time to be short right so I

kind of picked that lesson up there

um and after that after I blew out there

I kind of started over again it was

working and went to work for various

Prop Shops and hedge funds to remember

my next big thing that went into my

trading process was the end of the last

half of 1999 which was the internet

bubble as we know it now as we knew

again it was the internet let's make

everyone a millionaire very quickly

Market but I knew then we were in one of

these shoeshine boy markets right the

shoe shine boy was giving stock tips and

they were working and that couldn't last

very long and we all know that's true

everybody was walking around all day

just talk about how much money they're

making the stock market we all know that

that's not going to last everyone's not

going to become a multi-millionaire in

the stock market and it was just a

matter of time but I started shorting at

the second half of uh 1999 which the

market went up another NASDAQ went up

like another 50 percent in the second

half of 99 so I was good enough at that

point to be stopping out and not losing

a lot of money but I certainly was not

making any money and what happened was

eventually the market did top out in Jan

January of 2000 and had a real nice bear

Market from there in the NASDAQ in

particular but I was way too early and

what I found then was the commitment to

Traders data which showed if you had

followed the until the speculators were

very long before actually getting short

to stock indices you wouldn't have

gotten short all the way until January

of 2000 and that struck a chord with me

here's something right and to this day

since then I used the commitments of

Traders Port extensively and what I find

it does is it's not necessarily the

Panacea that calls every Market top and

bottom and this and that but more than

it does help me do that but more than

anything else it keeps me out of trouble

like in that situation it would have

kept me from getting short that whole

second half of 1999 so it keeps me out

of trouble when I'm trying to be

contrarian this is very important

especially for someone who's trying to

be contrarian right because you can get

run over being contrarian yes in August

of 1999 the short was the contrarian

trade because everyone in the world

including the shoe shine boy was getting

long but before months to really you got

run over right you wouldn't even have

been around for the 2000 top and that

gets to my next point which is that I

find and what I have learned and the way

I trade now is contrarian should not be

contrarian price just because

something's gone up a lot does not mean

you want to short it and just because

something's gone down a lot does not

mean you want to buy it contrarian

should be contrarian participation if

everybody's long you want to short it if

everybody's short you want to buy it and

just because the Market's going up a lot

doesn't mean everybody's long okay and

you see that on the commitment to

Traders data right so that's sort of the

lesson I learned through that period

contrarian participation not contrarian

price otherwise you can get destroyed

trying to be contrarian and trying to be

a wise ass okay

so that was a big lesson then so then I

went on and you know worked for uh some

hedge funds and and started to develop

my process using the commitment as a

Traders report using don't fight the

tape using this sort of news failure

Market confirmation entry and I started

to have some some good success with that

and time went on and and I started my

own fund which was always seems like the

big dream hey start your own hedge fund

and be the next you know whoever George

Soros or whatever and what I found was

it wasn't really my big dream because I

had a bunch of people working for me

um and everybody that worked for you

wants to make a lot of money and so what

I had to do was raise a lot of money

because first of all I had a big expense

base with these people's salaries and

everything and office space and all that

stuff so I had to raise money to get

fees to cover that and then I had to

keep raising more money to get more fees

so that these people could you know

hopefully make the the amount of money

that they wanted to make so I spent a

vast amount of my time you know raising

money from people going to meetings

talking to these people and uh that was

not how I wanted to spend my time I

wanted to be trading and as an aside

because we were marketing and because I

had to raise money most of the people or

a large percentage of the people who

allocate to

teachers Traders are looking to allocate

to systematic processes right so we took

this whole cot thing and and turned it

into 100 systematic and what that ended

up doing

of course was

the the returns start to degrade right

they weren't as good right which kind of

pissed me off because I had spent many

years trying to learn how to do this and

lost many dollars uh during my lessons

and I didn't want degrading returns I

wanted the best returns I could get so

after a few years I kind of you know I

got divorced and was all stressed about

all this stuff so I just shut it down

and I took about a year and a half off

and I kind of moved out to a farm and

tried to live the Thoreau life and chop

wood and get my head back together and

found you know over time that I want to

be back involved trading the markets

because that's what I had done for a

long time and that's what I felt that I

was good at and I felt that I had a

process that could make money and add

value to people so I I got back into it

this is about six or seven years ago you

know I went and raised a little bit of

money from some people that I knew and

started managing it and slowly built up

the track record and then you know got a

few other institutions involved and got

to the point where I was more than happy

with the amount of money I was managing

and and that's what I do now and so

that's sort of the quick history of

of what's gotten me here and what I hope

we can do is that you can take away some

of these lessons first of all about not

fighting the tape about not being

contrarian on price just because

everyone's long and you think it's going

to go down or whatever the reason is

Right waiting for Market confirmation

and I also hope this can be somewhat of

uh of an inspiration to people who maybe

have gone through a tough period

especially those who kind of started off

like I started off which means they

started off after covet Market was going

straight up everything they bought made

money they figured that they were

Geniuses and they were going to and we

see these stories all in the Press now

and then last year you know all these

kind of high-flying stocks that major

hundreds of percent who went down 80 90

you lost all your money and now you're

like what am I going to do right

well it can be done is what I'm trying

to say

I'm no Harvard graduate I'm no genius

okay but you have to come to the

conclusion

of process you have to have a process

right first and once you have that

process you have to stay disciplined to

that process now the discipline part has

become a lot easier for me simply

because I run a business I tell these

people what it is that I do and what is

to be expected from me and therefore if

I follow that process that's what's

going to give them that if I stop

following that process it's not going to

give them that and they're not going to

want me to manage their money anymore so

that helps me very much with my

discipline if you're trading your own

account it's a lot harder to have that

discipline because you don't have to

answer to anybody so to speak You're

just thinking you're just trying to make

as much money as you can but the

important thing to do is track your p l

and track your your trades and track

what you were thinking behind those

trades and you'll be able to start to

eliminate the bad ideas over time

and keep the good ideas over time and

develop those good ideas into a process

that you will follow and then be very

disciplined about following it with the

eye on the fact that making money over

time is what you want to do you don't

necessarily have to make money today you

don't necessarily have to make money

this week or even this month or even

this quarter everybody has bad days bad

weeks bad months bad quarters and 99.9

percent of the people have down years

okay but you can't let them kill you

they got to be small so that you'll be

alive for the good times right which

means you have to stay disciplined

develop a process track that process if

it's not working you got to come up with

a new process if it is working great use

that as motivation to stay disciplined

to that process and not do any of these

other stupid trades right and that's

kind of what I would say here I hope

that that helps I'm more than happy to

hear any questions or comments and I

hope everybody has a good week thanks