First I was in disbelief. Now I'm just laughing.
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the speaker recounts their trip to Colorado, highlighting a hike on the South Park 600 square Lakes Trail and an unexpected detour due to weather. They also discuss the market's reaction to interest rate hikes, arguing that these are misunderstood as fiscal expansions that can fuel economic growth. The speaker critiques the market's fear of rate hikes and emphasizes the positive impact of growth forecasts, suggesting that current selling is misguided. They conclude with personal hiking anecdotes and a broader perspective on the global economic system's transformation due to recent geopolitical events.
Takeaways
- ๐๏ธ The speaker returned from a trip to Colorado and plans to share pictures and videos at the end of the video.
- ๐ค๏ธ They experienced a lucky escape from a thunderstorm and hail by delaying their hike due to a flight diversion.
- ๐ The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for the third quarter is up to 2.6%, indicating strong or decent growth.
- ๐ค There's a fixation on interest rates, but the speaker argues that growth, not arbitrary interest rate levels, is what drives the economy and stock market profits.
- ๐ฐ The speaker points out that rate hikes are a form of fiscal expansion, contrary to popular belief that they are negative.
- ๐ The rate hikes are leading to an increase in government transfers to income and a significant boost to investors holding government securities.
- ๐ The speaker finds the market's reaction to rate hikes comical, as they believe it's a misunderstanding of the positive impact of growth.
- ๐ The market is going down despite economic growth forecasts, which the speaker sees as a major opportunity for investors.
- ๐ฆ The speaker predicts that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will lead to negative cash flow, which may attract congressional scrutiny.
- ๐ The global economic system is undergoing a fundamental transformation due to sanctions and the creation of new financial structures.
- ๐ช The speaker encourages viewers to be patient and strong, emphasizing that current challenges are part of a larger, positive shift in the global economy.
Q & A
When was the trip to Colorado taken?
-The trip to Colorado was taken on Friday and continued through the weekend, with the video being recorded on Tuesday, September 6th.
Why was the plane diverted to Salt Lake City?
-The plane was diverted to Salt Lake City due to bad weather in Denver.
What happened to the people who did the hike on the day of the thunderstorm and hailstorm?
-People who did the hike on that day got caught on the mountain and were pelted by hailstones the size of golf balls.
What was the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for the third quarter?
-The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for the third quarter was 2.6% growth.
What is the speaker's view on the fixation on interest rates?
-The speaker finds the fixation on interest rates comical and believes that the focus should be on economic growth instead.
How does the speaker describe the impact of rate hikes on the economy?
-The speaker describes rate hikes as a form of fiscal expansion that fuels economic growth and provides an income boost to investors holding government securities.
What is the speaker's opinion on the market's reaction to rate hikes?
-The speaker believes that the market's negative reaction to rate hikes is misguided, as they are actually beneficial for economic growth.
What is the current federal funds rate according to the speaker?
-The current federal funds rate is two and a quarter percent, with expectations that it will be increased to three percent.
What is the speaker's view on the distribution of benefits from rate hikes?
-The speaker believes that while the benefits of rate hikes may initially flow to a select few, they eventually circulate throughout the entire economy.
What is the speaker's advice for investors during this period of economic change?
-The speaker advises investors to be patient and strong, not to panic, and to see the current period as an amazing opportunity for investment in the stock market.
What is the name of the trail the speaker hiked in Colorado?
-The speaker hiked the South Park 600 Square Lakes Trail near Georgetown, Colorado.
Outlines
๐๏ธ Colorado Trip and Market Insights
The speaker returns from a trip to Colorado and shares their hiking experience, which was postponed due to a thunderstorm and hail. They mention posting pictures and videos at the end of the video. The speaker then transitions to discuss the stock market, criticizing the fixation on interest rates and emphasizing the importance of economic growth. They highlight the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for Q3 and explain how rate hikes can lead to fiscal expansion and increased government transfers, benefiting investors worldwide.
๐ Market Reaction to Rate Hikes and Economic Data
The speaker mocks the market's reaction to rate hikes, arguing that the focus should be on economic growth rather than the arbitrary level of interest rates. They discuss the impact of rate hikes on government securities and the income boost investors will receive. The speaker also addresses the Fed's potential negative cash flow due to increased interest payments on reserve balances and anticipates political scrutiny as a result.
๐ Global Economic Transformation Amid Conflicts
The speaker discusses the broader implications of the ongoing conflict, particularly the sanctions' destabilizing effects and the resulting transformation in the global financial system. They highlight the creation of new financial structures and trading arrangements as a long-term bullish factor. The speaker encourages viewers to see the big picture and maintain a positive outlook despite the challenges.
๐ Reflecting on the Colorado Hike and Staying Positive
The speaker concludes by sharing personal anecdotes from their Colorado hike, including the challenges of altitude sickness and sunburn. They emphasize the importance of staying positive and patient in the face of negative news and market fluctuations. The speaker also mentions the potential risks of escalating global conflicts and ends with a reminder to enjoy the shared pictures and videos from the trip.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กInterest Rates
๐กEconomic Growth
๐กFiscal Expansion
๐กAtlanta Fed
๐กStock Market
๐กFederal Reserve
๐กMarket Sentiment
๐กGlobal Economic System
๐กSanctions
๐กInvestment
๐กAltitude Sickness
Highlights
The speaker has returned from a trip to Colorado and plans to share pictures and videos at the end of the video.
A fortunate decision was made to delay a hike due to weather conditions, avoiding a thunderstorm and hailstorm experienced by others.
The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for the third quarter has increased to 2.6%, indicating strong or decent growth.
The speaker criticizes the fixation on interest rates, arguing that growth is more important for the economy and stock market profits.
Rate hikes are seen as fiscal expansions, contrary to the common belief that they are detrimental to the economy.
An increase in government transfers to income through the interest channel has been observed due to rate hikes.
The national debt discussion is highlighted, with 24 trillion owned by the public and 6 trillion owned by the government.
Investors holding government securities will receive an income boost from rate hikes, affecting the global economy.
The Fed's monetary policy is discussed, with the potential for negative cash flow due to increased interest rates.
Political implications of the Fed's financial situation are considered, with the possibility of congressional scrutiny.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the broader economic impacts of fiscal policies.
A call for patience and strength in the face of market fluctuations and economic news.
The ongoing conflict and sanctions are forcing a transformation in the global financial system.
New financial structures and trading arrangements are being created as a result of the current geopolitical situation.
The speaker encourages a positive outlook despite the challenges, highlighting potential long-term benefits.
The personal experience of hiking in Colorado, including an encounter with altitude sickness and intense sun exposure.
A description of the South Park 600 Square Lakes Trail hike and its location near Georgetown, Colorado.
The speaker reflects on the physical impact of the hike and the importance of being prepared for such activities.
Transcripts
yo what's up everybody it is Tuesday
uh September 6th I'm back from my trip
to Colorado I'm gonna post up some
pictures and a couple of videos at the
end of this video so stay tuned keep
watching until the end we had a really
nice hike it was a beautiful day
actually we were lucky because
we flew out on uh Friday night was
supposed to land in Denver
on uh well around uh 11 30 p.m local
time there but our plane got diverted to
[Music]
um
Salt Lake City because of weather and
then we flew out on Saturday
to get back to Denver and then we when
we got to Denver it was late we decided
ah we're not going to do the hike today
and it's lucky we didn't because in the
afternoon there was this big
thunderstorm and hail storm with big
hail pellets it's funny because then I
was reading comments of people who did
the hike that we were going to do they
did it that day and they got caught up
on the caught up on the mountain and got
pelted by you know golf ball-sized uh
hailstones anyway the next day we did it
on Sunday and it was beautiful it was
beautiful
but I'll post some pictures at the end
let's talk about the market
I thought we could see a bounce today
um
actually there's a lot I gotta talk
about here and it's kind of for me at
this point it's getting it's getting
comical
it's getting comical
um and the reason is this there is this
insane fixation on interest rates okay
and I understand that that's that's been
just pounded into everybody's brain that
when rates go up
um it's bad all right
first of all
I just saw that the Atlanta feds GDP now
forecast for the third quarter is now up
to 2.6 growth GDP growth in the third
quarter that's kind of like what I was
talking about you know back in July I
said we're going to see strong growth or
decent growth coming out of the you know
the negative to two quarters negative
we're going to see Positive Growth you
know decent growth that's kind of like
um the average growth rate over the last
like 30 years been like two and a half
to three percent I mean under Trump
two and a half to three percent the
stock market was on fire
so like it's not about some arbitrary
level of interest rates it's it's about
growth
growth means the expansion in the
economy it it leads to the expansion in
income profits I mean that's ostensibly
that's why we invest in a stock market
for profits I mean it's just I Gotta
Laugh at this I mean yeah we have seen
interest rates go up to where are they
now uh two and a quarter percent on on
the FED funds rate and they're gonna
they're gonna Jack it up to three you
know at their meeting on the 21st
but it's the arbitrated some arbitrary
level of interest rates is meaningless
it's about growth if the economy and and
I gotta add another thing here guess why
we're having
um growth forecasts ratcheted up
can you guess
yeah it's exactly because of the rate
hikes rate hikes as I've been telling
you
their fiscal expansions they fuel the
increase in government transfers to
income
through the interest Channel
I think I put up or I mentioned
something in a prior video that uh
interest on Treasury Securities that the
government pays
we have seen over a 20 billion swing
from negative early this year you know
like March April
um to a positive year-over-year flow
okay 20 billion just in a few months
positive flow and if you look at the
discount on T bills right because
t-bills don't have a coupon they're just
sold at a discount and that discount is
effectively the interest rate
that added over 30 billion so far since
uh March compared to last year so I mean
the impact has been huge and there's
something else that I think everybody
ought to know
right we hear so much about all the
national debt the national debt 30
trillion oh my God actually 24 trillion
is owned by the public 6 trillion is
owned by the government some of that
including the FED right so 24 trillion
24 trillion of government securities in
the hands of you know investors
throughout the world
they're gonna receive a big income boost
with these rate hikes that's going to
flow to every corner of the world
basically okay so here's the thing about
rate hikes and here's why right now I
gotta tell you I'm just I just sit here
and laugh like yeah the Market's going
down
I mean sell
if you think that's what's you know the
thing to do then go ahead and sell and
good luck with that because you're
selling into expanding economic growth I
mean think about this
growth is gonna be at 2.6 even with the
rate hikes and I shouldn't say like I
said before not be not even with the
rate hikes but as a result of the rate
hikes
I mean
the investors have this so backward and
again I completely understand it because
it's been so pounded into their heads
this is all they hear all rates rate
hikes are bad rate hikes are bad rate
hikes are bad
I mean this is a major fiscal expansion
that is happening right now it's a
stealth expansion because nobody
understands this I mean it's real and I
see this I see this selling this you
know just Relentless selling on the
slightest by the way today we had some
economic data
I forget off the top of my head there
were some numbers that came out today
much stronger than the forecast one of
the headlines I saw which you know kind
of uh correlates to what I just been
telling you a couple of minutes ago one
of the headlines where you know
the market is down because there was
Stronger economic data
I mean think about that for a second
it's like the same thing they remember
they sold the market down uh on the July
job report when we had like a 530
000 payroll increase and then last week
we added 300 that also beat so like
cell growth if that's your thing
if that's your thing
then I'm saying to you here right now
cell growth go for it just go for it all
right and you can post up whatever
comments you want about how I've been
wrong about it go for it sell growth if
that's your thing
and let's see how that's going to work
out all right and again if you don't
understand
that
rate hikes
are
fiscal expansions that there's 26
trillion in the hand of government
securities in the hands of investors
throughout the world that are going to
receive a big huge income boost and by
the way that's not even I'm not even
talking about what the FED is going to
have to pay to the banks on their
Reserve balances because every time the
FED jacks up interest rates the FED is
on the hook to pay on reserve balances
and I talked about that there's what
like 5.6 trillion in reserves you know
if they Jack it up to um
three percent was that like 168 billion
that's more than the FED earns right now
the FED is in negative cash flow
territory which uh I predicted a long
time ago I said there was going to come
a time when the feds own monetary policy
would put it into negative cash flow not
that that's a big deal I think the fed
you know can can easily continue to
operate like that but it will call
attention
uh from Congress there's no question
it's going to be some yahoo you know
Congress man or woman or Senator who's
gonna say like hang on a second
back to New York Folk
um who's gonna say like hey what's going
on here you guys are run you guys are
running negative cash flow you guys are
broke you're gonna probably have Rand
Paul Rand Paul would be the perfect guy
to do that right or that uh what's his
name Senator Kennedy from Louisiana
you guys are running a you know a scam
show here
you got negative cash flow
you're taking the money at taxpayers
taxpayers on the hook that's what's
gonna happen over here I can't wait
until that happens I cannot wait that's
going to be great that's going to be
fantastic all right
um you're running a rat ship here a
vessel for sea going snitches I love
that movie uh Scent of a Woman
all right so cell growth
go for it go for it all right
um big income boost going on big big big
income boost going on and again if you
say to me well I didn't I don't own
those and that's uh I I get it and
that's a political that you know the
structure of all that how it's set up
you know that's all political and it's
been that has evolved over decades and
decades and decades and I'm I'm with you
on that a hundred percent
I'm not into free money for Millionaires
and billionaires and financial
institutions but you have to understand
that that all flows back into the
economy right that's the swimming pool
analogy that I always use
you know if you put water in one end of
the pool where a few people are and they
get you know the the the water pouring
in on top of them and they're rejoicing
in that and they're splashing around and
that eventually the water you know
circulates around through the rest of
the pool so indirectly
you know we the little people receive
some of that benefit now would I like it
to be different would I like it to be
structured different absolutely
absolutely and if I was in charge I
would set it up differently but I'm not
in charge if I was like a benevolent
dictator I would set it up differently
but I'm not in charge
but anyway that's what happens
and you know as hard as it may seem it
may be to you know keep that framed
correctly in your head you really have
to try to do that that's number one
okay number two is
you know you gotta be patient
and you gotta be strong
because it's very easy to look at what's
going on and freak out and panic
you got to be patient and you got to be
strong I'm telling you this right now I
am absolutely pounding the table on this
that we will look back at this period if
I'm still doing the videos or whatever
and we will say this was one of the the
most amazing opportunities to be
investing in the stock market as long as
I'll just add as long as we don't end up
in World War Three I mean I haven't
spoken about that in a long time but the
escalation uh in this horrible you know
Ukraine war it just continues and that's
a real uh concern let me tell you that
is a real real concern and it's it's no
laughing matter and it's no joking
matter you know if I can put that aside
for a second
I have to say one thing about you know
not necessarily the war but one of the
the outgrowths of the conflict and we
are seeing now
a fundamental
transformation in the global economic
system I mean it's really really
incredible what is going on because of
all the sanctions that have been applied
um yes they were very destabilizing and
they continue to be destabilizing but
they have forced a change in the Global
Financial system where new Financial
structures are being created okay like
Russia and these countries working
around Swift and new trading
arrangements are being forged and this
is very very bullish long term all right
you have to understand this is something
you really have to step back
from and see it in the big picture it's
very destabilizing you know now in the
near term when it's happening but we're
already starting to see a transformation
I mean historians are going to look back
on this and the world is going through a
change that you know I mean you
basically have to go back to over 150
years I would say to when the it was
really the British Empire in control of
everything and then you know the United
States took the the the the mantle uh
took the Baton over after uh you know
World War one and two and now like but a
complete and utter transformation is
going on new Financial structures new
trading Arrangements I mean the world's
economy is completely completely
changing and once it you know once
everything gets in place and there's
progress on that now there's progress
happening on that now
all right so be positive look I I know
people it's very easy to be negative I I
think that is implanted in people I I
have the same problem
it's very easy to fall into that
negative trap
very very easy I mean we're bombarded
non-stop 24 7 365 days a year with
terrible horrible headlines
I mean so it's very easy to fall into
that negative trap you're gonna be
strong
all right
that's it for the update
um I'm gonna uh post up some pictures
here and maybe a couple of videos on my
Colorado trip for those who are
wondering
um
uh the hike was called this the the
South Park 600 square Lakes Trail you
could look that up on
um old Trails which is if you like
hiking you probably already know there's
an app called all Trails the South Park
600 square Lakes Trail
um near Georgetown Colorado all right
Georgetown was where I was if you
remember last year last November I hiked
up with my son Mount bierstadt which is
a 14 000 it was like 14 032 feet we did
our first 14er this hike that I did on
Sunday uh we the top we were about
twelve thousand three hundred
um and my hiking partner she she got a a
bad case of uh altitude sickness and
also like it was an intensely sunny day
you'll see in the pictures and we were
just walking but we got fried we got
sunburned she got sunburned really
really bad I didn't know this but for
every thousand feet of altitude that you
go up uh the the sun rays intensifies by
like some crazy percent like 40 or
something like that so like at 12 in
over 12 000 feet with not a cloud in the
sky it was like one of those perfect it
was like you know Desert Sun
glaring down you know and we were just
out there shorts and a short sleeve
shirt and um
yeah so uh it was pretty intense and the
next day I woke up and I'm you know I'm
in pretty good shape I work out seven
days a week I lift weights I run stuff
like that but my legs everything was was
fried I think even worse than the the
14er that I did I don't know for some
reason
all right that's it just stick around
watch my uh take a look at my my
pictures and my videos and I'll see
everybody tomorrow bye
here we are right on the lake
a couple of pit bulls
pit bull in a some kind of Collie
and then that little thing
not you baby
I was like that little thing
sometimes walking down is harder than
walking up
you're gonna watch where you're stepping
I could trip and fall
but I still rather be going
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