FVGs Don’t Work Unless You Use THIS - Ep. 14

Summary

The video analyzes the key differences between winning and losing trades, explaining that the underlying factor is time and volatility. It outlines how economic news events create market volatility on higher timeframes, while session open/close times drive volatility on lower timeframes. Checking the economic calendar and planning trades around major news events can improve probabilities. It also covers trading session guidelines - when volatility typically occurs for indices vs forex. Ultimately, time must agree with price for a trade setup to have a higher probability of playing out successfully.

Takeaways

• 😊 The key difference between a winning and losing trade is the presence of time/volatility to move price. Without energy/volatility, price will not move to take profit.
• 📈 Higher time frame volatility comes from high impact news events like CPI, FOMC, NFP. Avoid trading the day before/of, but fine afterwards.
• ⏰ Lower time frame volatility comes from sessions - 9:30-4pm for indices, 2-10am for forex. Lunch time dips still tradable if setup is valid.
• 📰 Other red folder USD news besides big 3 can be traded before/during/after the news release.
• 😎 Winning trades need agreement between time and price - time brings volatility for price to move. Reliable volatility makes strategy profitable.
• 📊 Trading revolves around probabilities. Clean setups can play out without news, but trading with news has higher probability.
• 📉 Losing trades happen when time disagrees with price - no energy for price to continue direction.
• 🗓 You can trade crosses like AUD/CAD if no suitable USD news for the day.
• ☝ Asia session still tradable for Asia pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
• 🎯 Time is the differentiator between winning and losing setups that otherwise look similar in terms of price action.

Q & A

What is the underlying factor that makes a winning trade versus a losing trade?

The underlying factor is time and volatility. Winning trades have volatility and energy from news events, economic calendar releases etc. to push the price towards take profit. Losing trades lack this energy and volatility to sustain the move.

What are the big three news events to avoid trading around?

The big three news events to avoid are: CPI, FOMC meeting minutes, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). It's best to avoid trading the day before and the day of these events.

Can you trade other USD news events besides the big three?

Yes, you can trade other USD red folder news events like PPI, Consumer Sentiment etc. before, during and after the releases. Only the big three require avoiding the surrounding days.

What brings volatility to the lower timeframe?

Kill zones, which are essentially volatility sessions, bring energy to the lower timeframes. For indices, the main kill zone is the 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM New York session. For forex, volatility comes more from economic news versus sessions.

Why do some fair value gaps hold while others do not?

Fair value gaps hold when time and volatility aligns with the gap. If volatility dries up, gaps are likely to fail even if price action looks similar across gaps.

Can you trade forex pairs during the Asia session range?

The Asia session is usually seen as a low volatility consolidation period. However, Asia-centric pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD can be actively traded.

What is the launch time in forex and is it tradable?

The launch time is 5 AM - 7 AM NY time. It can be traded if volatility and momentum supports the price direction despite being between two sessions.

Why is trading based on probabilities and not certainties?

No setup or trigger will have 100% accuracy. Trading is probabilistic with certain conditions skewing the odds favorably but not guaranteeing an outcome. Risk management is key.

How can you call price action live with a high accuracy?

Through practice and having a trading strategy that incorporates the key elements covered - higher timeframe context, volatility, kill zones etc. But accuracy will still involve probabilities.

What discount and premium rates refer to in trading?

Discount rate refers to periods of decreased volatility and ranges where price may be cheaper to enter. Premium rate refers to higher volatility directional moves where price is extended.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Difference between Winning and Losing Trades

The paragraph discusses that there is an underlying factor that differentiates winning and losing trades despite their similar price action. This factor relates to time and volatility that makes the market move to hit take profit. There are two types of time - higher timeframe news events like economic calendar and lower timeframe sessions that bring energy and volatility.

05:02

📆 Higher Timeframe Analysis with Economic Calendar

The paragraph explains how to analyze the higher timeframe using the economic calendar. It states that major news events like CPI, FOMC and NFP have a one-day spread to avoid consolidating price action. Other red folder USD news besides the Big 3 are tradable before, during and after. Examples are shown of losing and winning trades based on supporting/lack of USD news.

10:03

⏰ Rules for Trading Around Big 3 News Events

The paragraph provides rules around trading major news events. It states to avoid trading the day before and day of CPI, FOMC and NFP due to extreme volatility. The day after is fine to trade. For other USD news, trade before, during and after. Crosses can also be traded when no USD news. Checklist summarizes rules.

15:06

📈 Lower Timeframe Analysis with Kill Zones

The paragraph distinguishes lower timeframe analysis using kill zones. For indices, trade between 9:30-4 pm NY time on equity open volatility. In forex, volatility comes more from news, not kill zones. Forex kill sessions are provided - London, NY, London close, Asia. Rules specified for trading each session.

20:06

⏩ Next Steps and Invitation to Masterclass

The paragraph concludes time is the differentiator, not price action. It invites interested viewers to enroll in the limited-seat masterclass opening March 1st to learn live trade calling, directing them to social media for more details.

Keywords

💡Fair value gap

A fair value gap refers to an area on the chart where price has moved sharply away from the overall trend, creating a gap between current price and the expected 'fair' value. The video discusses fair value gaps as potential trade entry points, for example if price retraces back to fill the gap. Fair value gaps indicate volatility and a continuation of the overall trend.

💡Entry confirmation

An entry confirmation provides evidence that an intended trade entry point is valid. The video looks for entry confirmations after identifying initial trade setups like fair value gaps. Confirmations reduce risk by verifying that the market is moving as expected.

💡Order block

An order block is a price zone or area on the chart where significant buying or selling interest happened previously. The video discusses entering trades at order blocks when they align with things like fair value gaps, as order blocks tend to act as support and resistance areas.

💡Take profit

The take profit is the price level at which an open trade will close for a profit. The video explains that for a trade to hit its take profit level, price needs to move favorably with enough volatility. Trades fail when there is insufficient volatility and momentum to reach take profit.

💡Stop loss

The stop loss is the price level at which an open trade will close to limit losses. The video contrasts stop losses to take profits - if price stalls and lacks volatility, it will likely hit stop loss rather than take profit.

💡Risk reward (RR)

Risk reward refers to the ratio between the potential profit of a trade (reward) and the loss risked if it fails (risk). The video explains that a strategy needs a high enough risk reward ratio across many trades to be profitable despite losing trades.

💡Economic calendar

The economic calendar contains major scheduled news events and data releases that impact currency and asset valuations. The video examines the economic calendar to understand what is driving market volatility and hence trading opportunities.

💡Higher time frame

The higher time frame refers to wider interval charts such as the 1 hour or 4 hour charts. The video contrasts the higher time frame, which reveals overall market direction and momentum, versus lower time frames like the 5 minute chart that show potential trade entry points.

💡Lower time frame

The lower time frame refers to narrower interval charts like the 5 minute or 15 minute charts. According to the video, lower time frame charts provide trade entry signals but require confirmation that the higher time frame supports the overall direction.

💡Kill zone

Kill zones indicate time periods when the market is most actively traded. The video looks at US equity market kill zones between 09:30 am and 04:00 pm as optimal times for volatility and trend continuation. Outside kill zones, momentum may stall.

Highlights

The underlying factor that makes a winning trade is time and volatility, which provides the market energy and movement.

Volatility comes from news events on the economic calendar, specifically US dollar red folder news like CPI, FOMC, and NFP.

Avoid trading the day before and day of CPI, FOMC, and NFP due to increased consolidation and volatility.

It's fine to trade the day after CPI, FOMC, NFP and other red folder USD news events.

Besides the big 3 news events, other USD red folder news brings volatility for potential trade setups.

Trade cross pairs like AUD/USD or NZD/USD when no USD news is upcoming.

For indices, focus trading between 9:30AM-4PM New York time when equities open brings volatility.

Indices rely less on USD news and more on equity open times for volatility unlike forex.

Lunch times in forex often still see volatility if price is already trending strongly.

Asia pairs like AUD/USD and USD/JPY are fine to trade during the Asia session.

Fair value gaps hold when time (news and sessions) agrees for continued price movement.

Price patterns alone don't determine if a trade will succeed - time is the differentiator.

Being able to predict price action comes from understanding time and volatility.

Focus is on when to trade based on higher and lower timeframe time analysis.

Understand when time provides the energy and probability for your trade setups.

Transcripts

can you see the difference between this

winning trade right here and this losing

trade right here probably not right and

that's exactly my point because there is

no difference when we look at Price

action overall it's very similar it's

almost the same and here it is not about

price so what makes the winning trade a

winning trade there's an underlying

factor that is extremely important to

understand to increase your win rate and

to increase your overall profit

and that underlying factor is exactly

what we are going to go over today so

first steps first what is that

underlying Factor what am I talking

about well here on this losing trade we

see this gray box which is fair value

Gap we have fair value gaps going higher

right there we have some type of an

entry confirmation right there entry on

the order block and on the fair value

gaps itself why do those fair value gaps

not hold and ultimately why is this a

losing trade when in comparison to this

very similar price action we again the

gray box is fair value Gap after that we

have fair value gaps higher fair value

gaps higher again the entry confirmation

entry of the order block right there why

does this gray box that fa value Gap

actually hold whilst price action is

almost the same and of course I

understand yes there are slight

differences in price action but that's

not the most important part because

there's always going to be a slight

difference in price action and price

here in the winning trade and losing

trades they are always going to show you

something there's always going to be

some kind of setup some kind of trade ID

every single day but what makes a trade

a winning trade well in order for this

trade right here to hit take profit what

does it need to do it needs to move

higher to hit take profit and I know

that sounds extremely stupid but think

about it if price doesn't move then your

trade will never hit take profit Prof it

it will always be closer to my actual

stop loss right there so then the

question becomes well why does the

market actually move and the market

moves because of time but not the fancy

word time that most Traders think about

no we are actually going to dissect this

fully time is often times used as a

marketing word it's a buzz word whilst

it doesn't have to be that difficult

because time is simply said volatility

and volatility makes the market move and

even volatility to me is always a liit

of a vague word it's not that clear what

it actually means where I like to refer

to it as energy when you have energy for

example most likely you would want to

move you want to do something right and

the opposite is also true when you don't

have a lot of energy what do you want to

do you probably want to sit down want to

sit on the couch want to sleep a little

bit that's why we go to bed in the first

place because we're tired we don't have

energy so when we have energy we like to

move when we don't have energy we don't

like to move that's the same exact thing

in the market so what then brings that

energy to the market well there's two

types there is higher time frame time

and lower time frame time we first need

to go over the higher time frame time

higher time frame time is when we want

to know if a day is actually ready to

continue higher or continue lower so if

the day itself will actually have good

movement and if the day itself will

actually have high probability of

showing this trade for example a winning

trade and that is done through news the

economic calendar the economic calendar

makes the market move makes the higher

time frame move which of course then

hand inand makes the lower time frame

move as well the lower time frame is

what we're going to go over later on in

this video now to make it easy I want to

focus on the economic calendar for the

US dollar I am by the way using Forex

Factor no affiliation or whatsoever this

has always been my go-to economic cender

the most reliable in my opinion then if

we take a look at this losing trade that

we had we had this 1 hour for Val Gap

right there then going into the one

minute we again saw one minute fors

going higher absolutely perfect new one

minute for up going higher there as well

which in itself again could be a great

entry But ultimately why did this 1 hour

F Gap right there not hold why did it

not push higher right there for us to

hit take profit well look at this day

right here which is by way a Sunday 18th

of February we're going to count this as

a Monday so Sunday to Monday where both

of those days we don't have any news

besides US Dollar Bank holiday here

we're trying to trade Euro US dollar so

ideally we want some US dollar news and

which exact news is exactly what we're

going to go over well if we look at the

winning trade we have this 4our forup

right there that actually helped that

pushed prize higher right there which on

the five minute had a beautiful

confirmation to actually push higher and

make the winning trade possible why is

this well looking at the economic

calendar again and if we go to the

previous week then on the previous week

right here we see this winning trade was

taken during Friday the 16th of February

Friday the 16th of February we had core

PPI and we had prelim consumer sentiment

right there two red folder us dollar

news and that is the exact difference

but just trading rap folder News will

not do it because that will also cause

you to lose a lot of trads because

there's something called The Big Three

and the big three is US dollar CPI fomc

and

NFP those three news events have a onday

spread what do I mean by that well here

for example on this last week we see CPI

core CPI for the US dollar whenever you

have a big three news event so again CPI

fomc and NFP you want to avoid the day

before right there because even though

we have US dollar orange Fuller news

that means nothing the chances of

consolidating are increased right there

why is that because the big three takes

up so much volatility that ahead of that

price action we are more likely to

consolidate and then afterwards we will

explode towards one side or first take

out one side to then move to the other

side to avoid Traders from being a part

of that move to then make the real move

this happens the day before CPI and also

we see 8:30 so the 8 hours and 30

minutes before CPI as well after that

news release it is perfectly fine to

trade when it then comes into your PD

Ray then shows your entry pattern for

example like we see right here on this

EU trade on that Friday we see PPI PPI

right there was just the C Catalyst for

this setup why we were always expecting

to move higher from this 4our Vaga which

we even mentioned in the previous video

live then before we even hit the 4our V

Gap there is no reason to go into the

lower time frame just yet to look for

our entry confirmation so once we hit

that 4our Gap then we can go into the 5

minutes and when we are in the 5 minutes

then PPI right here this huge candle

that 830 candle is where the volatility

again comes in and that is simply said

where eventually the entry presents

itself because the time and the fair

value right there are in agreement but

then right here we also have at 10 a.m.

right there we had that US dollar

consumer sentiment that we saw is that

tradable yes everything besides the big

three can be traded before during and

after and the reason for that is again

big three CPI fomc and NFP are so

extremely volatile that in live

conditions not demo conditions like your

your favorite Guru might show you nfb

profits but actually life conditions if

that goes against you and it moves

against you it does not fill you at your

stop loss it fills you way below that

because in that small time period there

is no one trading brokers deactivate

trading during that actual period they

are not obligated in any shape or form

to fill your stop loss at that moment in

time during those heavy news events so

if your stop- loss gets hit then it

doesn't get hit and you get filled way

below that so for example here if we

were to trade this during actual CPI and

we enter on the exact moment CPI happens

and where to come to our stop loss if

for example we took a short right there

then we would not get filled right there

yes if you're trading demo absolutely

you might but live conditions you might

get filled right there losing double

triple four four times five times the

amount you actually risked so then you

are essentially trading in negative RR

conditions meaning that's not risk

management that's not trading that's

just purely gambling why is it gambling

well if there's no risk management

involved then right there in order to

avoid blowing your account you would

need to have a 100% win rate or even

close to 100% win rate to pull this off

no one is going to have a 100% win rate

absolutely nobody if they're telling you

you they have 100% win rate it's

absolutely so even if you lose

that one time and that one time might

blow your account even then you are

unprofitable might as well go to casino

and put everything on red constantly so

we don't want to trade ahead of that CPI

and ahead of that F fomc and ahead of

that NFP but after it how does that work

well again like we show right after CPI

fomc nfb is perfect fine to execute 100%

and the one day spread we talked about

where you want to avoid the day ahead of

it you can perfectly find trade the day

after it so even though on that

Wednesday we do not have red folder US

dollar news it is perfectly fine to

trade that day the Thursday also

perfectly fine to trade Friday Also

perfectly fine to trade then if we look

at the next week and we just go over

multiple weeks to ingrain this into your

mind Monday right here do you want to

trade no Tuesday do you want to trade no

also because it doesn't have US dollar

redf news but more importantly because

it has fomc the next day so avoid

Tuesday then also avoid Wednesday until

after fomc then right here Thursday is

perfectly fine tradable Friday is it

tradable no Friday we don't have red

fold news so I want to avoid it so

before I give you the full checklist

right there to go over so that you fully

understand this it's important to

understand again these are all

probabilities right so will you have

clean setups and nice trades that play

out when we don't have news supporting

the ID right there yes 100% you will if

during that 10day period you were to

take one trade each single day let's say

you lose eight out of those 10 days and

you win two of those 10 days you would

need to catch nine RR combined over

those two winning days to actually be

profitable whilst if we look at the

higher probability thing when we do have

news supporting the ID let's say five

out of 10 days are now clean and that's

again taking it very easy not

overexaggerating taking very easy let's

say five out of 10 days five winning

days five losing days you would need a

combined six RR in a total of five days

to be profitable well that's a lot

easier right it's a lot easier to do so

seeing people say well this day had no

new sporing the ID right there but it

still had beautiful trades yes you don't

understand how trading actually works

which is again it's all based on

probabilities now the checklist you want

to go over for your higher time frame

time before we move into the lower time

frame time the big three is what you

want to avoid the day before and the day

itself the time before that after that

it's perfectly fine to trade the day

after no matter what it's also perfectly

fine to trade besides the big three if

we have red folder US dollar news like

we're seeing on this Thursday right

there that is perfectly fine to trade

that perfectly fine to execute before

during or after that news release and

when I refer to fomc I refer to fomc

meeting minutes right there when I refer

to CPI I refer to CPI right there US

dollar and when I refer to NFP I refer

to nonfarm employment change right there

and then your question might be well

arel in a week like this do you then

just don't trade like what do you do

well of course there are multiple pairs

out there besides the US dollar which

are also called the crosses so if we

take a look at the list right here on

the right side of our screen and the

Forex Majors right there is something I

would avoid until we have had the big

three news event which is the fomc

meeting minutes but if we move to the

crosses which is this list for example

we have Australian dollar news we have

canadi Ian dollar news GBP news Euro

News a bit of New Zealand dollar news so

Australian dollar Canadian dollar

Australian dollar CHF GBP Australian

dollar for example are all perfectly

fine tradeable because that is where the

volatility is going to be so higher time

frame checked off right there lower time

frame we can reveal that right now

because now we need to understand the

following things what brings the

volatility to the lower time frame that

is where kill zones now come in or

another word a fancy name for sessions

so for example if we want to understand

if a fair value Gap is actually going to

hold right there then the fair value Gap

itself like we saw on the higher time

frame time is not enough we also need to

understand if time is agreeing with

price if time is agreeing for that F Gap

to actually hold where right here we see

this F Gap does not actually hold

because we come below this swing low

right there before we actually continue

higher so why does that fair Val Gap

right there not hold for indices and

here we are on NASDAQ currently it's

important to understand the following

Kill Zone focus on your trades between

9:30 a.m. and 400 p.m. New York local

time lunch times all that stuff doesn't

really matter and I'll explain to you

why so right here if we want to wait for

that 9:30 open again for that 9:30 Kill

Zone to start then right here we see at

9:30 that's exactly where the volatility

comes in time often tells you whatever

price wants to do meaning once time is

sort of activated time right there comes

into the market we have equities open

for example like we have right there at

9:30 that stinks into a discount array

into a 1H Hour Discount array in the

form of That Swing Low that then shows

our entry pattern in the form of that 5

minutes for higher so then we have time

and price in agreement where it is that

simple trust me it is that simple right

there where time telling you what it

wants to do because simply said it

stinks into your PD shows the entry

pattern that's it where that entry is

perfectly fine but this entry again why

does this entry lose right there we

don't have time supporting the ID now

for indices it's also important to

understand it's less reliable on US

dollar red folder News why is that

because the indices are already

extremely volatile with equities open so

every equities open which is again 9:30

that's the start of the Kill Zone until

400 p.m. that is already extremely

volatile by itself where in Forex it's

the opposite because in Forex you are

almost reliable on those US dollar red

folder News kill zones in Forex and I

might get a lot of comments towards my

head but for my experience it's very

true and from the data as well in my

trading it is very true kill zones in

Forex are less relevant than ind's kill

zones and again I'll explain why because

kill zones in Forex just generally don't

bring in the amount of volatility in

comparison to an equi open where the

volatility for Forex truly comes from

that economic cender not So Much from

the kill zones where the kill zones in

general for Forex right here is you have

London open London open is from 2:00

a.m. to 5:00 a.m. New York local time

again everything I mentioned is New York

local time

after that you have 7 a.m. towards 10:00

a.m. New York open or the New York Kill

Zone then from 10: to 12 you have London

close and then from 8 until 12 again so

making the full circle is where you now

have the Asia range but there's a lot of

factors going into this then what about

the period between 5:00 a.m. and 7:00

a.m. because that is known as the launch

time can we execute during the time for

your Forex Pairs and for your Forex

Majors so the I have on the right right

there it is perfectly fine to execute

between 2: to 10: a.m. because let's say

price is moving higher right here it is

having a PD in the form of that fair

value Gap right there and we have launch

time which is actually true at that

moment time we have 6:00 a.m. right

there and 65 until 7:00 a.m. but we can

see this lunch time is more volatile

than whatever London open was doing

right there why is that well that simply

is because because price there is ready

to continue higher and what do I mean

with that it's again showing the

discount rate showing the entry pattern

so it's willing to continue hire if you

are about to have lunch and you are in

the middle of a project and you're about

to finish it I think nine out of 10

humans it's sort of this human nature

that you want to finish the task first

before you go to lunch it's just a

better feeling that's the same in the

market why would anyone go to lunch

right there if it has a jum to fulfill

meaning moving from the discount rate

towards the premium rate right there and

2 until 10:00 a.m. in general is true

but what about the Asia range the Asia

range is not a range if it's an Asia

pair from 8:00 p.m. until 12 a.m. it's

called the Asia range and Asia range is

where usually it is taught that it's a

range it's a consolidation you want to

avoid that price action right there but

again that is also extremely General

because if we look at Australian dollar

US dollar that's actually very active

during the Asia range so during Asia

it's perfectly fine to execute on

Australian dollar US dollar the same

goes for New Zealand dollar US dollar

the same goes for US dollar JPY what do

they have in general Asia pairs JPY New

Zealand dollar and Australian dollar for

those pairs it's perfectly fine to

execute during Asia as well so why does

this gray box right there hold why has

this fair value Gap right there held as

well pushing price higher why are these

fair value gaps and every fair value Gap

that we see after right there not hold

as in has not created a new fa value Gap

off of that and has not been respected

time it's not because of price itself it

is because of time so if you've watched

the previous episodes of Mark Mastery

everything I told you right there and

every concept we have gone over is all

invalid for me if time is not supporting

the ID price is always going to show you

something time is the differentiator now

if you are interested in a shortcut and

you are willing to learn how to be able

to call this price action live like we

have been consistently doing then again

the spring enrollment the first of March

is opening up for the master class

limited spots available not everyone

will be able to get in you can apply and

after that you will also still have a

chance to get in so please if you are

interested in that pay close attention

to my social media when 1 of March is

approaching as well and if you don't

believe my word then again you can go to

ar. where you will see other people say

the exact same thing where again the

results are also speaking for itself all

right perfect thank you