Astrophysicists keep finding things that “shouldn’t exist”. I think I know why.

Summary

The video discusses why astrophysicists frequently make predictions that turn out to be wrong when new astronomical observations are made that reveal objects like unusually massive black holes or early galaxies that formed too quickly. The main reason is the complexity of astronomical systems compared to elementary particles in physics - galaxies have unique detailed histories so predicting their properties is extremely difficult. This situation leads to questionable observations and prevents progress, so the speaker predicts we'll continue seeing headlines about things that 'shouldn't exist' until astrophysics as a field makes an effort to consolidate data and refine predictions.

Takeaways

• 🌌 Astrophysicists continue to find cosmic objects that challenge existing theories, suggesting a need to reevaluate our understanding of the universe.
• 🔭 The inability to conduct experiments in astrophysics, unlike in other scientific fields, limits our understanding and relies heavily on observation.
• 🌟 The complexity of astronomical objects like galaxies and black holes, which are far more variable than subatomic particles, adds to the challenge in astrophysics.
• 📡 The unique characteristics and formation histories of galaxies make them difficult to study and compare, unlike elementary particles.
• 📊 Discrepancies between theoretical predictions and observational data in astrophysics often lead to debates rather than swift paradigm shifts.
• 🔬 The limitations of telescopes and the variability in their capabilities can significantly affect the interpretation of observational data.
• 💡 Before discarding a theory, scientists examine other factors such as observational errors, data analysis methods, and model assumptions.
• 🧠 The discussion in astrophysics is often stagnant due to uncertainties in data, observations, and the lack of comprehensive simulations.
• 🔄 The persistent issue of predictions not aligning with observations in astrophysics indicates a need for more robust data consolidation and prediction-making.
• 🎓 Skillshare is recommended for learning and improving productivity skills, offering a wide range of classes to support creative and work-related growth.

Q & A

Why do headlines often claim that certain astronomical objects shouldn't exist?

Headlines claim that certain astronomical objects shouldn't exist because it attracts attention. Scientifically, it's because these objects do not align with astrophysicists' predictions based on existing theories.

What types of astronomical objects are typically cited as not fitting with current astrophysical theories?

Objects typically cited include overly massive black holes, galaxies that formed too quickly in the early universe, abnormally large galaxy clusters, and unusually large structures or atypical galaxies.

Why don't unexpected findings in astrophysics lead to immediate paradigm shifts?

In astrophysics, unexpected findings don't lead to immediate paradigm shifts because the field relies on observations rather than experiments. Additionally, the complexity and uniqueness of astronomical objects necessitate ruling out other variables before questioning underlying theories.

How does the inability to perform experiments impact astrophysical research?

The inability to perform experiments limits astrophysicists to observing phenomena as they naturally occur, which can introduce variables and uncertainties that are difficult to control or replicate, unlike in experimental sciences like particle physics.

In what way is astrophysics similar to fields like sociology and biology, according to the script?

Astrophysics is similar to sociology and biology because all these fields deal with complex, variable-rich systems where outcomes can be influenced by numerous untracked and interdependent factors.

Why are galaxies considered unique, and how does this affect astrophysical studies?

Galaxies are considered unique due to their different formation times, locations, star compositions, and evolutionary histories. This uniqueness complicates studies as it makes it hard to generalize findings across different galaxies.

What is a common problem in astrophysics related to telescope data?

A common problem in astrophysics related to telescope data is that different telescopes have varying capabilities and biases, affecting how and what they observe. This makes it challenging to compare and interpret observations uniformly.

Why do astrophysicists prefer to question the observational data or analysis methods before doubting the underlying theories?

Astrophysicists prefer to question observational data or analysis methods first because these elements are more prone to error or bias than the well-established theories, which are generally supported by substantial evidence.

What does the script suggest is necessary for progress in astrophysics amid conflicting observations and theories?

The script suggests that consolidating data and adopting a more rigorous approach to making and testing predictions are necessary for progress in astrophysics amid conflicting observations and theories.

How does Skillshare relate to the script's discussion on astrophysics?

Skillshare relates to the discussion by providing a platform for learning and improving skills, including productivity and creative disciplines, which the narrator recommends for enhancing work in fields like astrophysics or content creation.

Outlines

00:00

🤔 Why Do Headlines Keep Saying Things Shouldn't Exist in the Universe?

This paragraph discusses why astrophysics headlines frequently claim things shouldn't exist in the universe. The main reasons are: 1) catchy headlines get attention, 2) predictions often disagree with observations, 3) astrophysics deals with complex, unique objects unlike particles in physics, 4) many missing details make interpretations uncertain. More headlines are predicted since astrophysicists likely won't consolidate data/predictions.

05:03

😕 Astrophysics Productivity Issues Prevent Progress

This paragraph explains why astrophysics struggles to make progress. There are many ingredients to compare predictions and observations: theory, models, simulations, instrumental biases, analysis, etc. Scientists are reluctant to discard theories and instead question all other ingredients first. This lack of definitive conclusions prevents the field advancing despite regular disagreements between predictions and observations.

Keywords

💡Astrophysics

Astrophysics is the branch of astronomy that employs the principles of physics and chemistry to ascertain the nature of astronomical objects, rather than their positions or motions in space. In the video, astrophysics is described as a field that faces unique challenges due to its reliance on observational data rather than experimental data. This distinction is important because it frames the discussion around why astrophysicists are often finding objects that defy their current understanding or predictions about the universe.

💡Catchy headlines

The term 'catchy headlines' refers to the practice of creating attention-grabbing titles for articles or videos. In the context of the video, it's mentioned as a reason why the media often reports on astronomical objects that supposedly 'shouldn't exist.' These headlines are used to attract viewers or readers, even though the scientific basis for such claims often involves complex and nuanced explanations.

💡Paradigm shift

A 'paradigm shift' refers to a fundamental change in the basic concepts and experimental practices of a scientific discipline. The video references Thomas Kuhn's concept of paradigm shifts to question why, despite numerous discoveries that contradict existing predictions, there isn't a widespread reevaluation or dramatic change in the theoretical foundations of astrophysics. It suggests that the field is cautious about revising its underlying theories, even in the face of seemingly contradictory evidence.

💡Observational science

Observational science is a category of science where researchers gather evidence through observations rather than controlled experiments. Astrophysics is highlighted as an observational science in the video, underscoring the challenges faced by astrophysicists who must rely on natural experiments provided by the universe. This contrasts with fields like particle physics, where experiments can be designed and controlled in laboratory settings.

💡Galaxies

Galaxies are massive systems of stars, interstellar gas, dust, and dark matter, bound together by gravitational forces. The video discusses galaxies as examples of complex astronomical objects that can defy predictions, such as being too large or forming too quickly based on current understanding. This serves to illustrate the diversity and complexity of objects in the universe, which can challenge existing astrophysical models.

💡Instrumental bias

Instrumental bias refers to the systematic errors or biases introduced by the limitations or characteristics of the observational instruments used in research. In the context of the video, instrumental bias is a factor that complicates the interpretation of astronomical data, as different telescopes might produce varying observations of the same phenomena. This concept is crucial for understanding why discrepancies between predictions and observations in astrophysics may not always lead to immediate revisions of theoretical models.

💡Data analysis

Data analysis in astrophysics involves processing and interpreting the vast amounts of data collected by telescopes and other observational instruments. The video emphasizes the complexity of this process, noting that assumptions about theoretical models often influence the analysis. This complexity is part of why astrophysicists are cautious about drawing definitive conclusions from data that appears to contradict existing theories.

💡Computer simulation

Computer simulations are computational models that simulate complex systems or phenomena, often used in astrophysics to predict the behavior of astronomical objects. The video mentions simulations as a step in comparing theoretical predictions with observations. The accuracy of these simulations, and their alignment with observational data, is a critical aspect of testing astrophysical theories.

💡Theory testing

Theory testing in science involves comparing theoretical predictions with empirical observations to validate, refute, or refine those theories. The video describes the process of theory testing in astrophysics as multifaceted, involving comparisons between theoretical models, simulations, and actual astronomical observations. This process is complicated by factors like instrumental bias and data analysis methods, which can introduce uncertainties.

💡Skillshare

Skillshare is mentioned in the video as an online learning community offering courses on various subjects, including creativity and productivity. The reference to Skillshare highlights the importance of continual learning and skill development, even in fields unrelated to astrophysics. It serves as an example of how individuals can expand their knowledge and skills outside traditional academic or professional settings.

Highlights

Astrophysicists had predictions for what they expected to find, and those predictions didn't pan out.

Astrophysics deals with very big, complex objects like stars, black holes, and galaxies that are all unique.

The problem with astrophysics is similar to sociology - you'd need to track many parameters not captured in research.

Throwing out the underlying theory is the last resort. Scientists first look for problems with observations, data analysis, models, etc.

Something is clearly wrong because predictions constantly disagree with observations.

Astrophysicists need to consolidate their data and get more serious about making predictions.

There will likely be more headlines about things that supposedly shouldn't exist.

Skillshare is a great place to learn creativity, design, filmmaking, productivity skills.

Skillshare learning paths help build knowledge from beginner to expert.

The course teaches productivity skills like generating ideas, time management, project breakdown.

Workflow and management are key to creativity and productivity.

Skillshare is the best place to expand creative skills.

The first 500 people get a free 1-month trial of Skillshare.

Go check out Skillshare and the special offer.

See you tomorrow.

Transcripts

We’ve seen a lot of headlines in the past  years saying there are things in the universe  

that supposedly shouldn’t exist. You may  have been wondering how many things can  

astrophysicists possibly find that supposedly  shouldn’t exist until concluding that maybe  

something is wrong with their ideas of  what should exist in the first place? 

Yes, I’ve been wondering about this, too.  And in this episode I want to explain why I  

think these headlines keep appearing and why I’m  pretty sure they’ll continue to keep appearing. 

These objects that supposedly shouldn’t  exist aren’t all of the same type,  

so let’s first have a closer look at what  we’re talking about. We have black holes  

that are too heavy, galaxies in the early  universe that got too large too quickly,  

galaxy clusters that are too large after  a collision, structures larger than galaxy  

clusters which should never have formed. And  then every once in a while there’s a galaxy  

that’s too dark or small or faint or whatever.  But most of the things that shouldn’t exist seem  

to be issues of being too big. It’s like  the universe has its own obesity problem. 

The reason for why the headlines say  these objects shouldn’t exist is, well,  

that it’s a catchy headline and yes, of course  I’ve done it myself. But the scientific reason  

is that astrophysicists had predictions for what  they expected to find, and those predictions  

didn’t pan out. So if they have all these  many predictions that turned out to be wrong,  

why aren’t they panicking? Why aren’t there any  paradigms shifting, to use Kuhn’s expression?

The first thing that might spring to your mind  is that astrophysics is a peculiar research area  

because we can’t carry out experiments. We  can only observe what has happened. And yes,  

that puts limits to what we can do. But as  a scientific discipline, astrophysics isn’t  

unique in this regard. If you’re digging  up dinosaur bones it’s a similar story,  

except possibly that dinosaur bones tend to  not go supernova which is a shame really.  

So yes, this is one of the reasons why  astrophysics is much more difficult than,  

say particle physics where we  can make dedicated experiments.

But there is another reason that makes  astrophysics more difficult than particle  

physics. It’s that it deals with very big  objects. Stars, black holes, galaxies,  

galaxy clusters, the entire universe.  And these objects are dramatically  

more complicated than the small, individual  particles we deal with in particle physics.

You see the protons in your body and  the protons in my body are for all we  

currently know identical, except for their  location. I could swap out my protons with  

yours and it wouldn’t make any difference.  But galaxies are not elementary particles. 

Yes, galaxies come in different types like  spiral galaxies and elliptical galaxies,  

and dwarf galaxies, and so on. But no two  galaxies are really alike. They were born  

at different times in different locations, they  have different stars and a different gas content,  

they came about by different mergers and have  undergone different collisions and live in  

a different neighbourhood. Each galaxy is unique.

In some sense I think, and I hope  astrophysicists will forgive me for saying that,  

the problem with astrophysics is similar to  the problem with sociology. In sociology,  

study results depends on who asks what  and how at which time and whether the  

study participants already had lunch and  what the result of the football game the  

night before was and so on. That is to say, if  you wanted to understand sociology, you’d need  

to keep track of a lot of parameters which are  currently just not captured in the literature.

You also have this in medicine and biology,  when they use “animal models” as they now put  

it. But animals aren’t models, they’re living  creatures. Whether a mouse is doing well can  

depend on all kinds of things, how much  sunlight they get, how big the cages are,  

whether their human caregivers talk to them,  whether they see their compatriots dying and  

god knows what else. If you wanted to make  sense of the mouse model data you’d have to  

keep track of all sorts of things that currently  aren’t being kept track of. And that’s why in  

sociology and biology it’s so difficult to  draw conclusions from conflicting studies.

And that returns me to astrophysics. Because in  astrophysics it’s a similar story. In most of  

the analyses for the things that supposedly  don’t exist the issue that it’s not clear  

what the observations say to begin with.  There’s just too much information missing.

A typical problem in astrophysics is for example  that there are hundreds or so of telescopes that  

have scanned this or that part of the sky  or this or that era. But every telescope  

is different. How much you can see with it, and  how well you can see it depends on the telescope. 

The data in and of itself can’t be interpreted  without knowing how it was collected. There is  

also the issue as we have discussed in an earlier  episode that sometimes the data analysis already  

contains assumptions about the theoretical  model. If you take for example the issue of  

the galaxies that got big too fast, you might  ask, how do we really know how old they are?

Basically in astrophysics, if you want to  compare the predictions with observations,  

you have a lot of ingredients. On the one side  you have the theory that you want to test. From  

that you create a model for the situation at  hand, say, a galaxy. Then you use a computer  

simulation and make a prediction. On the other  side, you have the observations themselves,  

the instrumental bias, the data analysis,  and then you compare that to the prediction.

And the thing is now that throwing  out the underlying theory is the  

last resort. Scientists will first look for  problems with all of the other ingredients,  

the observations, the instrumental bias, the data  analysis, the model, the computer simulation.

And this I think is why there is so much  discussion in astrophysics that isn’t  

going anywhere. Each time someone says this  thing shouldn’t exist, someone else says,  

reasonably enough, actually we can’t  tell because we don’t know this,  

or we haven’t observed that, or our  computer simulation is missing that.

That’s a pretty bad situation because it  prevents the field from making progress.  

It’s very clear that something is wrong because  you know, it’s not good if predictions constantly  

disagree with observations. But I  really think astrophysicists need  

to consolidate their data and maybe get a  bit more serious about making predictions.

But since I don’t actually think  they’ll listen to what I say,  

I predict that we’ll see more headlines  about things that supposedly shouldn’t exist.

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Thanks for watching, see you tomorrow.