Lumulubog na ba ang Maynila? | Need To Know

Summary

Metro Manila, home to nearly 15 million Filipinos, faces the alarming threat of sinking due to rapid sea-level rise exacerbated by climate change. The city's vulnerability is heightened by land subsidence caused by over-extraction of groundwater and natural geological factors. With sea levels in the Philippines rising seven times faster than the global average between 2015 and 2020, the potential for parts of the city to sink by 2030 poses a significant economic risk, estimated at over $39 billion. The Philippine government and international efforts, such as the Paris Agreement, are crucial in mitigating this environmental crisis and its far-reaching impacts.

Takeaways

• 🌊 Nearly fifteen million people live in Metro Manila, which is at risk of sinking due to rising sea levels.
• 📈 Manila's sea level rise from 2015 to 2020 was recorded to be more than seven times faster than the global average.
• 🌍 Climate change contributes to sea level rise, with global temperatures and glacier melts adding to ocean levels.
• 🏙️ Parts of Metro Manila are experiencing land subsidence, which is different from areas that are not sinking.
• 💧 The over-extraction of groundwater is a significant cause of land subsidence, leading to enhanced compaction.
• 🌡️ The Philippines is expected to see an annual sea level rise of 5.7 to 7 millimeters based on data from 1993 to 2015.
• 🌊 Manila Bay's water level is estimated to be rising at 13.24 millimeters per year, directly affecting the city.
• 🏛️ Dr. Fernando Sirinan indicates that areas connected to bodies of water like Manila Bay are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise.
• 💼 The potential sinking of parts of Metro Manila by 2030 could impact an economy worth over $39 billion.
• 🌳 The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has tools to monitor and predict areas at risk of sinking.
• 🏙️ Planners should consider the implications of a rising population and water supply issues in Metro Manila, especially with the risk of land subsidence.

Q & A

How many Filipinos reside in Metro Manila?

Nearly fifteen million Filipinos reside in Metro Manila.

Why is Metro Manila considered at risk of sinking?

Metro Manila is at risk of sinking due to the rapid rise in sea levels, exacerbated by climate change, and the potential for land subsidence due to natural causes and over-extraction of groundwater.

What is the global sea level rise reported by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?

Since 1993, global sea levels have been rising by three millimeters per year according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

How does the rate of sea level rise in the Philippines compare to the global average?

Between 2015 and 2020, the rise in sea levels in the Philippines was recorded to be more than seven times faster than the global average.

What is the connection between the West Philippine Sea and Manila Bay in terms of sea level rise?

If the water in the West Philippine Sea rises, Manila Bay, being connected to it, will also experience a rise in water levels.

What are the two main factors contributing to rising sea levels as mentioned in the script?

The two main factors contributing to rising sea levels are the expansion of water as oceans become warmer due to climate change and the melting of glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic, which add to the water in the oceans.

What is the potential economic impact of parts of Metro Manila sinking by 2030 according to Greenpeace East Asia?

The potential economic impact of parts of Metro Manila sinking by 2030 is estimated to be worth more than $39 billion.

What is the estimated annual rise in water level in Manila Bay?

The water level in Manila Bay is estimated to be rising at 13.24 millimeters per year.

How does the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) monitor sea levels and predict areas at risk of sinking?

PAGASA uses an app to monitor sea levels and predict which areas of the country could sink due to rising water levels. They also release reports such as 'Observed Climate Trends and Projected Climate Projection' to analyze climate data.

What role does the extraction of groundwater play in land subsidence in Metro Manila?

The over-extraction of groundwater contributes to land subsidence by causing enhanced compaction and loss of soil composition, such as water.

What is the Paris Agreement's goal regarding the rise in global temperatures?

The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit the increase in global temperatures to only 1.5 degrees Celsius, to prevent further environmental degradation.

What is the Climate Change Act or RA 9729 in the Philippines, and what is its purpose?

The Climate Change Act or RA 9729 is a law in the Philippines that aims to include climate change information in planning purposes for local government units, to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of climate change.

Outlines

00:00

🌊 Threat of Metro Manila's Submergence

The script discusses the alarming possibility of Metro Manila sinking due to rapid sea level rise and land subsidence. Since 1993, global sea levels have been rising, with the Philippines experiencing a rate seven times faster between 2015 and 2020. Dr. Fernando Sirinan highlights Manila as a vulnerable area, with the West Philippine Sea's rise directly affecting Manila Bay. The script also touches on the dual impact of climate change causing ocean expansion and the melting of polar glaciers. Other factors include trade winds pushing water towards the Philippines. Greenpeace East Asia warns that parts of Metro Manila could sink by 2030, impacting a $39 billion economy, with Manila Bay's water level rising at 13.24 millimeters annually. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) provides tools to monitor and predict areas at risk. The report 'Observed Climate Trends and Projected Climate Projection' forecasts a 5.7 to 7 millimeter annual increase in sea levels by 2100, based on data from 1993 to 2015.

05:03

💧 Addressing Land Subsidence and Climate Change

The second paragraph delves into the causes and implications of land subsidence in Metro Manila, one of 33 coastal cities globally experiencing rapid land sinking. Over-extraction of groundwater is identified as a significant cause of land compaction, leading to subsidence. The script suggests reducing reliance on groundwater and increasing the use of surface water as potential solutions. It also addresses the challenges of water supply due to Metro Manila's growing population and compares the situation to Jakarta, which is considering relocating its capital. The Paris Agreement is mentioned as a global effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The script emphasizes the need for immediate action, as the effects of our current measures will not be felt immediately. It concludes by referencing the Climate Change Act (RA 9729) in the Philippines, which aims to integrate climate change considerations into local government planning, and suggests reducing fossil fuel use as a means to mitigate further environmental degradation.

Keywords

💡Metro Manila

Metro Manila is the capital region of the Philippines, known for its rapid growth and high population density. In the context of the video, it is highlighted as an area at risk of sinking due to rising sea levels and land subsidence. The script mentions that nearly fifteen million Filipinos reside there, emphasizing its significance and the scale of the potential impact.

💡Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise refers to the increase in the volume of water in the world's oceans, which can be caused by various factors such as the melting of glaciers and the thermal expansion of seawater due to warming. The video discusses how sea levels have been rising at an accelerated rate in the Philippines, with a sevenfold increase between 2015 and 2020 compared to the global average, directly threatening Metro Manila.

💡Climate Change

Climate change is a long-term shift in global or regional climate patterns, often attributed to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels. The video script explains that climate change is a primary driver of sea level rise, contributing to the melting of polar ice caps and the expansion of ocean water, which in turn affects coastal cities like Metro Manila.

💡Land Subsidence

Land subsidence is the sinking or settling of the Earth's surface due to natural or human-induced factors. The script points out that parts of Metro Manila are experiencing land subsidence, which, combined with sea level rise, increases the risk of the city sinking. This is exacerbated by the over-extraction of groundwater, leading to soil compaction.

💡Greenpeace East Asia

Greenpeace East Asia is a regional branch of the international environmental organization Greenpeace. The video cites a study by this organization, which warns of the potential sinking of parts of Metro Manila by 2030 if sea levels continue to rise, underscoring the urgency and scale of the environmental threat.

💡Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

PAGASA is the government agency in the Philippines responsible for monitoring and forecasting weather and climate. The video mentions an app created by PAGASA that allows users to see areas of the country at risk of sinking due to rising water levels, demonstrating the practical tools available for assessing and responding to climate-related threats.

💡Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty aimed at combating climate change by limiting global temperature rise and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The script references the Paris Agreement to highlight the global commitment to addressing climate change and the goal of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

💡Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are gases in the atmosphere that trap heat, contributing to the greenhouse effect and global warming. The video identifies greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, which are emitted from activities like driving motor vehicles and industrial processes, as key contributors to climate change and sea level rise.

💡Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons such as coal, oil, and natural gas, formed from the remains of ancient organisms. The script discusses the role of fossil fuels in climate change, as their combustion releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to global warming and sea level rise.

💡Sustainability

Sustainability refers to the ability to maintain processes or conditions so that they can continue over the long term without depleting resources or causing environmental harm. While not explicitly mentioned in the script, the concept of sustainability is implied in the discussion of reducing fossil fuel use and managing water resources to mitigate the effects of climate change and land subsidence.

💡Natural Disasters

Natural disasters are catastrophic events resulting from natural processes of the Earth, such as earthquakes, floods, and storms. The video script suggests that the susceptibility of Metro Manila to disasters, including the risk of sinking due to climate change and land subsidence, necessitates planning and action to reduce vulnerability and protect the population.

Highlights

Nearly fifteen million Filipinos reside in Metro Manila, making it one of the fastest-growing cities in Asia, yet it faces the risk of sinking.

Global sea levels have been rising at an alarming rate, with the Philippines experiencing a seven-fold increase in sea level rise between 2015 and 2020 compared to the global average.

Dr. Fernando Sirinan from the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute warns that Manila is one of the areas that will be affected by the rise in sea levels.

Manila Bay is connected to the West Philippine Sea, implying that any rise in the sea level there will directly impact the bay's water level.

Land in Metro Manila is not uniformly sinking; some parts are affected while others are not, indicating a complex geological situation.

Climate change, particularly due to the use of fossil fuels, has led to a rise in global temperatures and consequently, sea levels.

Warming oceans expand, contributing to sea level rise, while melting glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic add to the water volume in the oceans.

Changes in wind strengths, such as trade winds, can push water into the Pacific Ocean, affecting the Philippines and potentially exacerbating sea level rise.

A study by Greenpeace East Asia suggests that parts of Metro Manila could sink by 2030 if sea levels continue to rise at the current pace.

The potential sinking of Metro Manila could impact an economy worth more than $39 billion.

Manila Bay's water level is estimated to be rising at a rate of 13.24 millimeters per year.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has developed an app to monitor sea levels and predict areas at risk of sinking.

PAGASA's report 'Observed Climate Trends and Projected Climate Projection' provides insights into future rainfall and temperature changes in the Philippines.

Natural causes such as fault lines and the movement of the earth during earthquakes can also contribute to land subsidence.

Over-extraction of groundwater for urban water supply is a significant cause of land subsidence in Manila, affecting nearly 60 million people.

Experts suggest reducing dependence on groundwater and tapping into surface water to mitigate the risk of land subsidence.

The high population density in Metro Manila poses challenges for water supply and disaster preparedness, with some experts recommending decongestion or relocation.

The Paris Agreement, joined by almost 200 countries, aims to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius to mitigate climate change impacts.

Greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles and factories contribute significantly to climate change and must be reduced to slow the sinking process.

The Climate Change Act or RA 9729 in the Philippines mandates the inclusion of climate change information in local government planning.

Simple measures such as reducing the use of fossil fuels can help mitigate environmental problems and the risk of sinking cities.

Transcripts

Nearly fifteen million Filipinos reside in Metro Manila.

Manila is one the fastest growing cities in Asia.

But the capital city of the country, is reportedly at risk of sinking.

Here's what you need to know.

Is Metro Manila sinking?

Since 1993, global sea levels have been rising by three millimeters

or sea level rise worldwide,

according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

But here in the Philippines, only between 2015 and 2020,

the rise in sea levels was recorded to be more than seven times faster.

According to Dr. Fernando Sirinan

of the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute,

Manila is one of the areas that will be affected

by the rise in sea levels.

If the water in the West Philippine Sea rises

Manila Bay is connected to the West Philippine Sea,

therefore, the water level in Manila Bay will also rise.

So that's one.

Second, is with the term “sinking.”

This can be connected to the process where the land is sinking.

First, let's clarify that there is data showing that

there are parts of Metro Manila that are sinking.

But there are also parts of Metro Manila that are not sinking.

One of the reasons causing the sea level to rise is climate change.

In the past decade, the global temperature has risen

due to the use of fossil fuels or energy from natural resources

such as coal and natural gas.

There are two aspects to rising sea levels.

One is when the water level itself rises,

and the rising sea can be related to what we call climate change.

As our oceans become warmer, it expands

which contributes to the rise in sea levels.

Second, still with climate change.

the rising temperature causes the glaciers

in the Arctic and Antarctic to melt.

These melting glaciers adds to the water in the oceans,

so the sea level also rises.

There are other climate change related contributing factors

to the overall rise in sea levels.

This includes changes in wind strengths

known as trade winds;

these trade winds push water into the Pacific Ocean

and bring it to the Philippines.

It's like it's piled here on us.

According to a study by Greenpeace East Asia,

if the sea levels continue to rise,

there’s a possibility that parts of Metro Manila could sink by 2030.

This will have an effect on the economy of worth more than $39 billion.

In Manila Bay alone,

the water level is estimated to be rising at 13.24 millimeters per year.

In the app created by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

or PAGASA,

we can see the areas in the country that could sink

due to rising water levels.

We have a tool that we use to monitor sea levels

and see what if—

what are the areas that will sink

if we adjust the sea level rise by one meter?

What will be the most affected areas?

We have a report released by PAGASA.

The name of the report is Observed Climate Trends

and Projected Climate or Climate Projection.

What’s the measure of rainfall, temperature after 50 years or in 2100

or after 30 years?

What we saw in the IP, which was included in our report,

is that there will be an increase of 5.7 millimeters to 7 millimeters

per year in the Philippines.

This analysis is based on 1993-2015 data.

According to other studies,

sea level rise is not the only reason for a city to sink.

It also includes natural causes such as fault lines.

The fault’s movement, however little and however slow, can cause some parts of an area to sink.

When an earthquake happens swiftly,

the movement of the earth can be sudden.

And this causes the land to sink.

The continued use of groundwater to augment the water supply in the city

also has a significant impact on the likelihood of land areas sinking.

In fact, Manila is one of 33 coastal cities worldwide

experiencing rapid land subsidence.

Nearly 60 million people are affected.

Land subsidence occurs

due to the loss of some soil composition, such as water.

So over-extraction of groundwater

is a major cause of enhanced compaction,

and there's data that can show that.

So what can we do?

Then, we should reduce our dependence on groundwater.

That’s one way.

We need to tap into our surface water more.

However, Metro Manila currently has a very large population.

Planners should consider, in the instance that more people flock to Metro Manila,

where will you get your water?

Currently, we already have a problem with water supply.

This kind of problem is not new, even across our neighboring countries.

In fact, Jakarta the capital of Indonesia, is also a sinking city.

They are considering moving the capital

to another part of Indonesia.

And here in the Philippines, some experts also suggest

moving or decongesting Manila

due to its susceptibility to disasters.

Due to the ongoing increase in global temperatures,

almost 200 countries have joined the Paris Agreement,

underlining the need to reduce

the continued rise in temperatures worldwide.

By 2030, it is possible for global temperatures

to rise by two to four degrees, if the problem is not addressed.

The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit the increase

to only 1.5 degrees Celsius.

It should not exceed that limit.

And that will only be reduced

through reducing our emissions of greenhouse gasses.

The greenhouse gasses, these are what’s being emitted,

for example, when we use motor vehicles, that's the smoke.

For example, if there's a factory nearby, the smoke they emit

have atmospheric gasses: nitrogen, carbon dioxide,

methane, nitrous oxide.

We can still do something to slow down

the likelihood of sinking for an area.

Whatever action we take right now, it's already a delayed response.

There's a delay.

It's not going to be swift, and we won't immediately feel its effects.

So in the next decades, the plans should seriously consider

that sea levels will continue to rise.

In all projections, there should be an agreement regarding

the acceleration in the rise of sea levels.

We have what is called the Climate Change Act or RA 9729.

The goal of this Republic Ac is to include

climate change information in planning purposes for LGUs.

It may be too late to stop climate change.

But through the simple ways of reducing our use of fossil fuels

such as coal, gas, et cetera,

we might still be able to save our environmental problems from sinking further.