Why the Fed may wait until November to cut rates

Summary

本周市场大幅波动主要归因于对经济衰退的担忧，此前上周五的就业报告不及预期。许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储将在9月降息，且降幅可能大于此前预期。然而，Middleberg社区首席经济学家Brad Case认为，美联储可能要到11月才会降息。Case指出，目前没有降息的理由，因为数据显示经济并未真正放缓。他强调，消费者支出依然强劲，工资和收入持续增长，除非收入或消费增长出现疲软迹象，否则经济不需要降低利率。Case还提到，尽管市场对9月降息的预期已经上升，但他的预测模型显示，未来一年经济衰退的可能性仅增加到41%，他认为美联储在11月之前不会降息。

Takeaways

• 📉 市场本周的大幅波动主要归因于对经济衰退的担忧，尤其是在上星期五发布的就业报告不及预期之后。
• 🤔 许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储将在9月降息，并且降息幅度可能比之前预期的更大。
• 📊 半美联储观察概率工具显示，市场预期降息50个基点的可能性上升。
• 💼 嘉宾布拉德·凯斯（Brad Case）是Middleberg社区的首席经济学家，也是前美联储经济学家，他认为美联储可能要到11月才会降息。
• 🚫 凯斯认为目前没有降息的特别理由，因为数据显示经济并未真正疲软。
• 💰 凯斯指出，由于工资和收入持续增长，消费者支出依然强劲，这表明经济并未显示出需要降低利率的迹象。
• 📈 凯斯提到，除非我们看到收入增长或消费增长的放缓，否则没有理由认为经济需要更低的利率。
• 🔍 凯斯强调，要寻找经济衰退的迹象，需要看到多个经济指标的持续疲软，而不仅仅是一个月的数据。
• 🗓️ 凯斯预测，从现在到11月，将有足够的数据表明美联储不应该继续维持高利率，这可能导致他们在11月开始降息。
• 🏠 关于房地产市场，凯斯指出，尽管住宅建设有所放缓，但这是从2020年和2021年的高需求水平下降的。
• 📉 凯斯认为，房地产市场的放缓是从一个过热的状态向可持续水平调整，这是经济健康的表现。

Q & A

为什么市场本周出现了大幅波动？

市场本周的大幅波动主要归因于对经济衰退的担忧，这是由于上周五发布的就业报告表现不如预期。

经济学家和策略师们目前对美联储在9月份降息的预期是怎样的？

许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储会在9月份降息，并且降息幅度可能比之前预期的要大。

Brad Case对美联储降息的看法是什么？

Brad Case认为美联储可能不会在11月之前降息，他指出目前没有足够的数据表明经济正在放缓，因此没有理由现在就降息。

Brad Case提到的“没有特别的理由现在就降息”是什么意思？

Brad Case认为，只有在数据显示经济真正放缓时，才有必要考虑降息。目前，他认为我们还没有这样的数据。

为什么Brad Case认为目前消费者支出依然强劲？

Brad Case提到，消费者支出强劲是因为工资和收入持续增长，消费者有钱可花。在收入增长或消费增长出现疲软之前，他认为没有理由认为经济需要降低利率。

Brad Case对于目前工资增长放缓和消费者支出变化的看法是什么？

尽管有迹象表明工资增长正在放缓，以及消费者支出的某些领域出现了变化，但Brad Case认为这些不足以表明经济整体正在减弱。

Brad Case如何评估经济数据的波动性？

Brad Case认为，用于预测微观经济状况的数据基于调查，会有月度波动。他强调需要寻找持续的疲软迹象，而不是单月数据的波动。

Brad Case提到的经济衰退的定义是什么？

Brad Case定义经济衰退为经济的持续全面疲软，这不仅意味着某一部分经济疲软，而是全国范围内多个或大多数经济部门的持续疲软。

如果9月份没有降息，Brad Case认为会发生什么？

Brad Case认为，如果9月份没有降息，这并不意味着经济会立即出现问题。他预计在11月之前会有足够数据表明美联储不应该继续维持高利率，并可能在那时开始降息。

Brad Case如何使用半美联储观察概率工具来预测降息？

Brad Case认为半美联储观察概率工具非常有用，但它基于希望降息的人们的交易活动，并不是绝对可靠的。他建议要结合广泛的指标来评估。

Brad Case对房地产市场的看法是什么？

Brad Case指出，尽管近期住宅建设有所放缓，但这是从2020年和2021年的高需求水平下降的。他认为，从过热的经济转向可持续水平是一个积极的趋势。

Outlines

00:00

📉 经济衰退担忧与利率预期

本周市场动荡主要由于上周五就业报告不及预期引发的经济衰退担忧。许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储将在9月降息，并且降幅可能超过之前的预期。'半美联储观察'概率工具显示市场预期降息50个基点的可能性上升。然而，Brad Case，Middleberg社区首席经济学家，前美联储经济学家，认为美联储可能要到11月才会降息。他认为目前没有降息的充分理由，因为数据显示经济并未真正疲软。他强调，除非有持续的疲软迹象，否则不应急于降息。他还提到，强劲的消费者支出是因为工资和收入持续增长，只要收入和消费增长没有出现疲软，就没有必要降低利率。

05:02

🏠 房地产市场的调整与预期

Brad Case讨论了房地产市场的情况，指出尽管住宅建设活动有所放缓，但这是从2020年和2021年的高需求水平回落。他解释说，由于个人行为，人们希望拥有自己的住房，导致需求激增，随后市场供应响应强烈，但这种响应正在减少。Case指出，就像失业率从极低水平上升一样，房地产市场的活动也是从异常高水平下降，但这并不意味着经济出现问题。他认为，经济从过热转向可持续水平是积极的，并且预计在9月之后，将有足够的数据表明美联储不应继续维持高利率，这可能导致11月开始降息。

Keywords

💡经济衰退

经济衰退是指经济活动普遍下降，通常表现为国内生产总值(GDP)连续两个季度下降。在视频中，市场对经济衰退的担忧是导致市场动荡的主要原因之一。例如，视频中提到市场参与者开始预测美联储会在9月降息，这是基于对经济衰退的担忧。

💡就业报告

就业报告通常指政府发布的关于就业情况的统计数据，包括失业率和新增就业人数等。视频中提到，预期之外的就业报告疲软加剧了市场对经济衰退的担忧。

💡美联储

美联储是美国的中央银行，负责制定货币政策，包括利率的调整。视频中多次提到美联储，讨论其可能的降息行动以及对市场的影响。

💡降息

降息是指中央银行降低利率的行为，通常用于刺激经济增长。视频中讨论了市场对美联储可能在9月或11月降息的预期。

💡消费者支出

消费者支出是指家庭用于购买商品和服务的支出，是衡量经济活动的关键指标之一。视频中提到消费者支出强劲，因为工资和收入持续增长，这与经济衰退的担忧形成对比。

💡收入增长

收入增长指的是个人或家庭收入随时间的增加。视频中提到，只要收入增长没有出现衰退，消费者就有消费能力，经济就不需要降低利率。

💡经济指标

经济指标是用来衡量经济状况和趋势的各种数据和统计。视频中提到需要观察多个经济指标的持续趋势，以判断经济是否真正疲软。

💡住房市场

住房市场是指买卖住宅物业的市场。视频中讨论了住房市场的现状，包括住房建设的放缓，以及这可能对经济和政策决策的影响。

💡住房建设

住房建设是指建造新住宅的活动。视频中提到，尽管住房建设有所放缓，但这是从高水平回落，且与之前的住房需求激增有关。

💡经济适度增长

经济适度增长指的是经济增长既不过热也不过冷，保持在一个可持续的水平。视频中提到，从过热的经济转向适度增长是积极的，这有助于经济的长期健康。

💡概率工具

概率工具通常指用于预测和计算事件发生可能性的工具或模型。视频中提到了'Semi Fed Watch'概率工具，用以预测美联储降息的可能性。

Highlights

市场本周的大幅波动主要归因于上周五低于预期的就业报告引发的经济衰退担忧。

许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储将在9月降息，并可能做出比之前预期更大的降息。

半美联储观察概率工具显示降息概率跳升至50%基点。

Brad Case认为美联储可能要到11月才会降息。

目前没有降息的特别理由，除非数据显示经济真正放缓。

消费者支出强劲，因为工资和收入持续增长。

在收入增长或消费增长出现疲软迹象之前，没有理由认为经济需要降低利率。

尽管有迹象表明工资增长开始放缓，但Brad Case并未看到消费者支出的明显减弱。

Brad Case认为，要判断经济是否真的疲软，需要看到持续的、跨多个指标的疲软迹象。

经济衰退意味着整个经济的持续疲软，而不仅仅是某一部分。

半美联储观察概率工具虽然有用，但并非绝对可靠。

Brad Case使用8到10个指标来预测经济衰退的可能性，目前预测模型显示衰退概率为41%。

Brad Case预计，到11月将有足够的数据表明美联储不应该继续维持高利率。

如果9月没有降息，市场可能会对美联储的政策路径产生疑问。

住房市场如果看不到降息信号，可能会受到影响。

尽管住宅建设有所放缓，但这是从2020和2021年的高需求水平回落。

Brad Case认为，经济从过热转向适度是好事。

Transcripts

a lot of the wild moves that we saw in

markets this week can be attributed to

recession fears after that softer than

expected jobs reports last Friday now a

lot of economists and strategists and

investors began forecasting that the FED

would cut rates in September and would

make a bigger cut than previously

anticipated your evidence semi fed watch

probability tool jumping to that 50% uh

basis point marker here and though our

next guest here has a different take

saying the FED may not cut rates until

November we have Brad case who's the

middleberg community's chief Economist

and he's also a former Economist for the

Federal Reserve Brad great to speak with

you okay so take us into your Calculus

here no cut until

November I think that's right uh first

of all there's no particular reason to

cut rates right now uh when when we when

uh data really show a softening economy

yes then there will be a chance to cut

rates but we don't have that kind of

data yet so the people who think that

the economy is head headed toward

recession are guessing that things are

going to soften when we just don't have

any data suggesting they're softening

you mentioned before how strong consumer

spending has been and that's true and

that is because uh wages and and incomes

have continued to increase consumers

have the money to spend and until we

start to see faltering in income growth

or in consumption growth there's really

no no reason to think that the economy

needs lower interest r traes yet I mean

aren't we starting to see some of that

faltering though I mean it's cracks

showing up in the rate at which wages

right now are are starting to just kind

of moderate and then additionally on the

categories where consumers are spending

so it feels like the pressure is is

there and getting larger especially as

the economists that we've speak spoken

with uh you know our reference Dana

Peterson the chief Economist over at the

conference board saying that this is a a

battle weary consumer at this juncture

I I'm not seeing that you know the the

data that we that are that are useful

for making uh forecasts about

microeconomic conditions are based on

surveys and you're going to have

month-to-month bumps in the data and so

what you're looking for is a sustained

weakness so for example the last

employment report was weaker than

expected we've seen that several times

before a one-month employment report

that was weaker than expected followed

by other employment Works reports that

were not weak and so I think uh before

we start to take uh data like that as a

sign of actual weakness throughout the

economy we need to see some some

sustained weakness in those in those

indicators and we need to see it across

a bunch of indicators remember that a

recession doesn't mean that one part of

the economy is weak a recession means a

sustained Strong Weakness throughout the

economy both geographically across the

country and throughout many or most uh

sectors of the economy we just don't see

that what happens if we don't get a rate

cut in September which the semi fed

watch probability we've seen that

already jump not even just to the point

where it's a 25 basis point cut but to a

50 basis point

cut yeah I I I think it's I use that

tool it's a very very useful tool but it

is based on uh on um investment

activities by people who have import

important reasons for hoping for um for

a cut in interest rates it's not an

infallible tool no no single rule is

infallible and so what you have to do is

look at a broad range of indicators I

use 8 to 10 indicators and I look for

multi

multimon uh uh Trends in them um my uh

my recession probability forecasting

model has increased in probability um

but only to

41% so uh so the probability recession

has increased over the probability of

recession over the next year has

increased but it hasn't become become

very strong I think what's likely to

happen is that between now and November

there will be enough data that suggests

that the that the FED should not

continue to keep rates high and that and

because of that in November they will

start to low to reduce rates that may

happen in time for the September meeting

but I don't see any sign that it will

okay so let's pivot this to something

that you and I talk about quite

frequently Brad and that is housing and

the housing market what happens to the

housing market if we don't see the

initial cut that perhaps signals what

the rest of the policy pathway could

look like well if you look at uh

residential construction what we've seen

over the last few months is a softening

in the amount of residential

construction whether it's housing

permits or starts or completions but you

have to recognize that that's coming

from an elevated level there was a

demand surge in housing in 2020 and 2021

and that was caused by individual

Behavior people wanting to go out and

get their own uh own own housing um and

in response to that demand surge there

was a supply response a very strong one

and that is tapering off so just as when

we look at the unemployment rate you

know we see we've seen the unemployment

rate go up but it's going up from an

extraordinarily low level just the same

way in the housing market we see starts

come down and activity come down but

it's coming down from from an

extraordinarily high level so what you

want in your economy is the you want the

entire economy to be moderate and so

we're going from a situation where the

economy was too hot to one where it is

moderating to a sustainable level and

that's a good thing Brad thanks so much

for taking the time here with us

appreciate you presenting this

perspective we'll have to check back in

and see what takes place after September

I will look forward to it certainly Brad

case middleberg community's Chief

Economist thanks so much