Two Stocks at Multi Year Breakout? | CA Rachana Ranade

Summary

In this insightful video, the host delves into the concept of multi-year breakout stocks, focusing on the oil and gas sector as a potential leader in the next market rally. Through meticulous sectoral analysis, the host identifies key breakout patterns in the oil and gas index, highlighting its strength and potential. The discussion then shifts to two specific stocks within the sector, OMC and BPCL, showcasing their multi-year breakouts and current technical positions. The host encourages viewers to add these stocks to their watchlists, emphasizing the importance of technical analysis for medium to long-term investment strategies. The video concludes with an invitation to a 14-day price action analysis challenge, offering a comprehensive learning experience for viewers interested in deepening their understanding of market dynamics.

Takeaways

• 📈 The video discusses 'multi-year breakout stocks' and their significance in leading market rallies.
• 🔍 The presenter emphasizes the importance of sectoral analysis in identifying potential market leaders and laggards.
• 📊 The oil and gas sector is highlighted as showing promising signs of outperforming other sectors based on technical analysis.
• 📉 The script mentions that market rallies are not always led by the same sectors, and leadership can change over time.
• 📝 A detailed analysis of various sectors including Nifty, automobiles, banks, and PSU banks has been conducted to identify potential leaders.
• 📉 The oil and gas index has been in a sideways trend for three years, with a breakout observed around 2024, followed by a consolidation phase.
• 📊 The presenter uses monthly and weekly candlestick patterns to analyze the sector's performance and potential future movements.
• 🔑 The concept of 'multi-year breakout' is explained using the analogy of a person breaking free from chains, symbolizing a stock breaking out of a long-term range.
• 📌 Two specific stocks in the oil and gas sector, OMC and BPCL, are analyzed for their multi-year breakout potential.
• 📝 The presenter offers a 14-day price action analysis challenge for viewers interested in learning more about technical analysis.
• 💡 The video concludes by advising viewers to add the analyzed stocks to their watchlist for further observation and study.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is the analysis of multi-year breakout stocks, specifically focusing on the oil and gas sector.

What does the term 'multi-year breakout' imply in the context of stocks?

In the context of stocks, 'multi-year breakout' refers to a stock that has broken out of a long-term trading range or resistance level, suggesting a potential for significant upward movement.

Why did the speaker choose to focus on the oil and gas sector for the analysis?

The speaker chose to focus on the oil and gas sector because it appeared to be performing better than other sectors after conducting a thorough sectoral analysis.

What is the significance of a 'confirmation candle' in technical analysis?

A 'confirmation candle' in technical analysis is a price pattern that confirms the breakout from a trading range or resistance level, indicating that the breakout may be sustainable and the trend could continue.

What is the difference between a 'sectoral analysis' and an 'individual stock analysis'?

Sectoral analysis involves evaluating the performance and trends of a particular industry or sector as a whole, while individual stock analysis focuses on the specific performance and potential of a single stock within that sector.

What is the '14 Days Price Action Analysis Challenge' mentioned in the script?

The '14 Days Price Action Analysis Challenge' is a special program designed by the speaker to teach participants about price action analysis in a systematic way, covering topics such as demand and supply analysis, buy/sell logics, and multi-time frame analysis.

How can one participate in the '14 Days Price Action Analysis Challenge'?

To participate in the '14 Days Price Action Analysis Challenge', one needs to be a member of the 'Invest in India Community' and can enroll using the provided coupon codes for monthly or yearly membership.

What is the speaker's advice on how to approach stocks that show multi-year breakouts?

The speaker advises adding such stocks to a watch list and studying their behavior post-breakout, especially considering the sector's strength and the stock's performance during the consolidation phase.

What are the two specific stocks from the oil and gas sector that the speaker analyzed?

The two specific stocks from the oil and gas sector that the speaker analyzed are OMC and BPCL.

What is the importance of watching how a stock behaves after a breakout and retest?

Observing a stock's behavior after a breakout and retest is crucial as it can provide insights into whether the stock has the momentum to continue its upward trend or if it might reverse and move downward.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Multi-Year Breakout Stocks in Oil and Gas Sector

The speaker introduces a video focusing on multi-year breakout stocks, particularly in the oil and gas sector. They discuss the importance of sectoral analysis in identifying potential market leaders and explain the concept of breakout stocks as a potential indicator of future performance. The speaker emphasizes the need to wait for confirmation of the breakout through subsequent price action. They also introduce a 14-day price action analysis challenge for those interested in learning more about technical analysis.

05:00

🔍 Technical Analysis of OMC and BPCL Stocks

The speaker provides a technical analysis of two stocks in the oil and gas sector, OMC and BPCL, highlighting their multi-year breakout patterns. They describe how these stocks have broken out of long-term resistance levels and are now testing their all-time highs. The speaker suggests adding these stocks to a watch list for further analysis and observation, as the sector appears to be gaining strength. They also mention the importance of understanding the behavior of stocks post-breakout and the potential for retesting resistance levels.

10:01

📊 Sectoral Analysis and Stock Performance Insights

The speaker concludes by summarizing the key points discussed in the video. They reiterate the importance of sectoral analysis in identifying potential market leaders and the significance of multi-year breakouts in individual stocks. The speaker encourages viewers to keep a close eye on the performance of the oil and gas sector and the specific stocks of OMC and BPCL, as they may indicate broader market trends. They also remind viewers to check the pinned comment for any corrections and to share the video if they found it valuable.

Keywords

💡Multi-year breakout stocks

This term refers to stocks that have experienced a significant price movement upwards after a long period of consolidation within a specific range. In the video, the speaker uses this concept to highlight stocks in the oil and gas sector that have shown potential for growth after breaking out of a multi-year trading range, which could indicate a strong upward trend.

💡Sectoral analysis

Sectoral analysis involves examining the performance and trends of various sectors within a market to identify potential leaders or laggards in a market rally. In the script, the speaker mentions conducting a sectoral analysis to determine which sectors, including oil and gas, are poised to lead the next market rally.

💡Technical analysis

Technical analysis is a method used by traders and investors to evaluate securities by studying statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. The speaker discusses performing technical analysis on the oil and gas sector and specific stocks within it to identify multi-year breakout patterns.

💡Consolidation

Consolidation in the context of stocks refers to a period where the price of a security moves within a certain range without showing a clear upward or downward trend. The script describes the oil and gas index and certain stocks experiencing consolidation before breaking out, indicating a potential change in trend.

💡Support and resistance

Support and resistance are levels on a stock chart where the price tends to stop and reverse. Support is the price level where buying is strong enough to overcome selling pressure, while resistance is where selling pressure is strong enough to overcome buying. The speaker mentions these concepts while discussing the price movements of stocks in the oil and gas sector.

💡Pyramiding

Pyramiding is an investment strategy where an investor increases their position in a security as the price moves in their favor. In the video script, the speaker suggests pyramiding as a strategy for investors who feel confident about the potential growth of stocks in the oil and gas sector after a breakout.

💡Price action

Price action refers to the movement of a security's price over time, reflecting the collective sentiment of market participants. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding price action for analyzing stocks, particularly in the context of identifying multi-year breakouts.

💡Monthly and weekly charts

Monthly and weekly charts are types of stock charts that display the price movements of a security over a month or a week, respectively. The speaker uses these charts to analyze the long-term trends and recent movements of stocks in the oil and gas sector, looking for patterns that suggest a breakout.

💡Confirmation candle

A confirmation candle is a price pattern on a stock chart that confirms the validity of a breakout or trend reversal. The speaker mentions waiting for a confirmation candle to validate the breakout of the oil and gas sector and the stocks being discussed.

💡Watch list

A watch list is a curated list of stocks that an investor is monitoring for potential investment opportunities. The speaker advises adding the analyzed stocks to a watch list to track their performance following the identified multi-year breakouts.

💡14 days price action analysis challenge

This refers to a special educational program designed by the speaker to teach participants about price action analysis in a structured 14-day challenge. The speaker mentions this challenge as a resource for those interested in learning more about the concepts discussed in the video, such as demand and supply analysis, and multi-time frame analysis.

Highlights

Introduction to a multi-year breakout stocks discussion.

Explanation of the concept of multi-year breakout in stocks.

Sectoral analysis approach to identify potential leading sectors for the rally.

Identification of the oil and gas sector as a potential leader in the next rally.

Technical analysis of the oil and gas sector's performance over the past three years.

Discussion on the importance of waiting for a confirmation candle in stock analysis.

Introduction of a 14-day price action analysis challenge.

Details on how to enroll in the price action analysis challenge and the benefits of joining.

Technical analysis of two specific stocks in the oil and gas sector showing multi-year breakouts.

Description of the multi-year breakout pattern in the stock of OMC.

Analysis of BPCL's stock performance and its breakout from a long-term resistance zone.

Importance of adding stocks showing potential to a watch list for further observation.

Emphasis on the power of the oil and gas sector and its impact on individual stock performance.

Encouragement to watch the stocks' behavior post-breakout and consolidation phase.

Advice on using technical analysis for medium to long-term investment strategies.

Invitation to share the video and check the pinned comment for corrections.

Closing remarks and sign-off.

Transcripts

hey folks C RAR ran here and I welcome

you all to a very interesting shoot and

release video which is about multiyear

breakout stocks now first of all we have

to understand that whenever we are

discussing about multi-year breakout

stocks what does that mean but before

that let's take one step back I'm sure

everyone right now is like Nifty has

corrected a little bit and uh what could

lead the next rally that could also be a

very important question in a lot of

people's minds understand that it's not

only a specific sector that leads the

rally every single time the num the

sectors which will lead the rally will

change from time to time so everyone is

interested to know that which sector

could be a leader and which could be leg

guards okay so for that what we did was

that we tried to read through the

sectoral charts be it uh Nifty it be it

uh Nifty automobiles be it Nifty Banks

be Nifty PSU Bank specifically we did a

lot of analysis we fin Nifty okay or o

oil and gas all these analysis fora okay

let me stop now we did a lot of sectoral

analysis in short and ultimately we came

across a sector which we felt that okay

this is doing a shade better as compared

to other sectors okay so that is the

reason with which I thought of drilling

down to one specific sector and that is

nothing but oil and gas sector so we are

going to do a technical analysis of that

okay so first let's understand how do we

go about this that whenever we were

discussing about which sector could lead

the rally I did tell you how do we go

about it we we have done an entire

sectoral analysis but I'm going to

present to you only one sector that is

oil and natural gas okay now uh what can

we do whenever we do a sectoral analysis

let's say we are going ahead with a

monthly Candlestick pattern and in that

we could say that okay for this sector I

I could be more on a buy side on on one

it could be on a hold on one it could be

a sell uh you can just read through this

nothing difficult per say in the whole

category if you feel you may pyramid if

you feel that no I don't want to Pyramid

I'll just hold on to whatever existing

positions I have okay so this is about

the sector that I'm talking about okay

it could be any stocks related to that

sector I'm not talking about stock

specific right now okay so once we

understand that okay this specific index

sounds to be interesting first you have

that question how did I understand

whether this is interesting so for that

let's have a look at this chart again

just to shorten the shoot time what I've

done is that uh we've taken the

screenshots and I've pasted the

screenshots here okay so quickly telling

you uh through this if you see through

2021 to 2024 almost a period of three

years the entire oil and gas index has

been in a sideways Trend you can see

here this was the level one two three

touch points and here the overall you

know price movement in that specific

sector oil and gas broke out and after

that you can see here around 2024

beginning we were seeing a consolidation

in that specific sector then we could

see a breakout but still it was the

sectoral movement was actually

sustaining about above the breakout

level it's still sustained about that

and right now you can see this week end

so basically Friday closing I'm doing

this as a shoot and release so we are

shooting this video today only we are

releasing it today only right so here

you can see that the week has closed

week is not week W week this entire week

has closed pretty strongly you can see

here it has closed very comfortably

Above This resistance line okay this is

about the weekly chart now if I were to

just

zoom out or zoom in sorry a little bit

here you can see this is a monthly chart

now so again in a monthly chart you'll

see a similar pattern it was in a Range

bound and then it broke out again you

can see here the stock the entire sector

was seeing some resistance breakout

which is this candle this is a previous

month's candle okay so this is July

candle it it'll be really interesting to

watch where does the August candle close

so this could be like a breakout

followed by a confirmation candle but is

it yet complete answer is no it is yet

to complete

okay so I hope you have understood about

how to do a sectoral analysis per se so

is this looking strong yes but as I said

ideally we should wait also for the

confirmation candle okay now the next

sort of discussion is that understand if

the Nifty were to go up some sectors

should support it sectors will take the

index higher but if the sector were to

go up then some stocks should support it

to go higher right so what I thought is

I should do a technical analysis on few

stocks as an example in the oil and gas

space but while doing the analysis I

thought that why not go ahead with

stocks which are showing me multi-year

breakouts now for those who don't

understand what is the meaning of a

multi- breakout you can imagine

something like this a person has been

chained his leg has been Chained and the

length of the chain is let's say

specific 5 ft or something like that so

can I say that the person's movement is

restricted up to that specific length

answer is yes you can imagine that one

fine day the chain is you know broken or

the person is able to cut that chain

somehow whatever that person is going to

break free and that happens with some

stocks that you can imagine instead of a

chain it's something like this okay so

the stock is moving in a specific range

bound thing and then if we see a

breakout either on the upside or

possible on the downside also okay so if

it's on the upside well and good chances

that it may go higher are a little bit

High okay so what we are going to do is

that we will try and analyze two stocks

as an example from the oil and gas space

I have not done the fundamental analysis

of these stocks so if you want me to do

the fundamental analysis as well uh

please let me know in the comment

section would be happy to do that for

you uh so what we are going to do is

that we will first understand stocks

with multi-year breakout okay so first

and foremost we have to understand okay

multi-e breakout I have given the

explanation but before I move on to the

technical analysis of these two uh

stocks if you felt that what what was

this multi multi-year breakout if you

remember I had also taken one word in

between which was pyramiding in the the

stock if you are not really aware about

all these points and if you want to

learn all these systematically but like

a challenge then I have designed a

special 14 days price action analysis

challenge now when is this going to

start this is going to start on the next

Saturday that is on the 17th it is going

to start 17th and 18th you will get

access to two videos one video will be

roughly around 1 one and a half hour

it's it'll be a pre-recorded video so

you can watch it at any comfortable time

of yours but very very important this

content is would be freshly shot by me

it's not uploaded on YouTube it's not a

part of any of my courses so if you want

to learn more about price action

analysis in detail in absolute simple

terms don't forget to join our 21 our 14

days price action analysis challenge the

link is going to be there in the

description box and you'll have to be a

Community member for that the invest in

India Community member and if you enroll

for this community the challenge becomes

free for you and if you want to enroll

for the monthly membership you can use

the coupon code rr20 for the yearly

membership you can use the coupon called

RR gift 30 just in case if you're not

sure that what will I do with yearly

membership challenge is going to get

over in 14 days ahuh we run challenges

every single month so first month we had

done a challenge on fundamental analysis

second month we had done a challenge on

technical analysis then we had done a

challenge on tax then we had done a

challenge on a pro researcher so all fun

challenges we have done till date and

still if you have any queries uh you can

definitely drop a WhatsApp on this

number my team will be happy to help you

out with this this link you will find in

the description box one quick point that

you are going to learn in this technical

in this price action challenge you'll

understand about demand Supply analysis

Logics behind B Buy ad sell system

multi-time frame analysis multier

breakouts analyzing various stocks SE

sectors sectoral rotation how to ride

stock trends with conviction and how

stocks behave over a period of time so

basically my thought process here is

that I want to tell how technical

analysis can be used even for medium to

long term some people feel technical

analysis can be used only for shortterm

it's not like that you can use this for

multi for you know medium to longterm as

well and for that you need to learn

price action so definitely you can take

this decision of investing in knowledge

uh as I mentioned the links are there in

the description box below moving on to

OMC this is a monthly chart that I'm

telling you it's in front of you you can

see a 2014 the stock saw a resistance

here again one more resistance it now if

you see here the stock went down now

what I've done I've also drawn one more

resistance line now if you see here

resistance Point number one almost there

two almost there three uh here you can

see it broke out it also retested and

now what is is it doing it is actually

testing its alltime high that it had

done in 2014 so you can see here this is

again a monthly candle so last month has

it broken out out of it yes can we see a

retest in this month yes but you'll say

or but it is not clear but the month is

not yet over we'll have to wait till the

month closes and then we will be able to

understand with conviction whether the

stock is showing power or not so what to

do with with such stocks simple add it

to the watch list try to study try to

analyze how does the stock behave post

almost a 10 year you know consolidation

phase post a 10e breakout kind of a

situation how is it behaving in this

month because there could be two chances

it could also say that uh this is it I'm

tired and it could go down but the thing

is that the sector is looking powerful

and that is the reason why this stock

will be really interesting to study okay

so please add it to your watch list now

if I uh even check out the weekly chart

for for omgc I'm just zooming this a

little bit if you see on the weekly

chart you can see similar time similar

thing has happened uh we could see some

sort of time wise correction here it

went up again it is seeing some sort of

consolidation here but still above the

resistance level and if you know this

Basics once a resistance now becomes a

support okay so interesting times for

OMC please watch it to your add please

add it to your watch list uh second uh

stock is bpcl again I'm I'm doing the

analysis on a monthly time frame now if

you see here this is back somewhere in

2017 18 that this stock had seen a

resistance here number one touch Point

number two touch point and finally in

2024 it broke out of this Zone we also

saw a you know we always say this

breakout retest this is the retest that

you can see here and post that it has

bounced monthly here you can see this is

the latest month that we are in this is

the month of August but again will be

interesting to watch how does the month

close Okay so very important one again

on a weekly basis you can see here

weekly again touch point one touch point

two it has broken outside this but this

week's closing was a shade below the

resistance level okay so again as I

mentioned please keep these stocks on

your watch list this will help you to

understand how to analyze stocks so

today what did we discuss in a nutshell

first week I said that if to believe me

I did a sectoral analysis of all the

sectors I named the sectors as well out

of all these sectors I thought I mean we

came to a conclusion that oil and gas

looks to be a little bit more powerful

as compared to other sectors this could

Le lead the rally for Nifty but then if

the sector were to perform well some

stocks have to show Power and for that

what we did was we did a uh you know a

multi- time frame analysis only weekly

and uh monthly not digging down into

daily details but we did see multi-year

breakouts in both these stocks so it'll

be really interesting to watch how these

stocks perform so I've also told you to

add these stocks in the watch list if

you did like this video if you found

some value please don't forget to share

this video with your friends as I

mentioned please don't forget to check

out the pinned comment if I fumbled on

some words I'm going to do the

correction in the pinned comment for you

uh and what I hope you enjoyed this one

till then take care J and bye-bye