La media de 100 en SP500 tiene la clave. Apertura 8 8 2024 bolsas, economía y mercados

José Luis Cárpatos

7 Aug 202415:49

Summary

TLDRIn this market update, José Luis Carpatos discusses the volatile state of the markets, noting a significant drop in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and others due to instability and geopolitical tensions. He highlights the impact of Japan's central bank's policy on the yen and the market's reaction to Super Micro Computer's poor results, which affected Nvidia's stock. Carpatos also mentions analysts' predictions of sustained volatility, potential market downturns, and the importance of watching key technical levels like the 5300 resistance and 5000 support.

Takeaways

📉 Markets remain unstable, with no clear direction as volatility persists.
📊 The Nikkei index dropped 0.74% due to concerns over Japan's interest rate policies.
📉 Wall Street's late-session dip caused a 3% drop in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
📉 Supermicro's poor results negatively impacted Nvidia, which fell by 5.12%.
💹 Analysts expect continued market volatility, possibly until September's options expiration.
⚠️ Increased geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and Israel, add to market uncertainty.
📉 Commodity prices continue to decline, signaling potential recession risks.
📉 JP Morgan raised recession probabilities to 35%, citing weak demand in the bond market.
📈 Bitcoin rose by 3.54%, contrasting with the instability in other markets.
📉 Technical analysis suggests that if the S&P 500 stays below 5,300, further declines could be imminent, possibly reaching 5,000.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video script?
-The main topic discussed in the video script is the current instability in the financial markets, with a focus on the performance of various stock indices and the impact of economic factors and geopolitical tensions.
What time did the video recording start according to the script?
-The video recording started at 8:30 in the morning Spanish time, which is 2:30 in the morning New York time.
What was the general market trend mentioned for the day prior to the recording?
-The general market trend mentioned for the day prior to the recording was initially a rebound, but it ended with a significant drop of nearly 3% in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indices.
How did the Japanese Central Bank's statements affect the markets?
-The Japanese Central Bank's statements initially caused a temporary rebound due to the governor's comments about not raising interest rates. However, the release of the minutes from the bank's last meeting indicated a willingness to continue raising rates, which negatively affected the markets.
What company's poor results significantly impacted the market and Nvidia's stock price?
-Super Micro Computer's poor results significantly impacted the market and caused Nvidia's stock price to plummet, with a drop of 5.12%.
What is the potential impact of the current market volatility on future market trends?
-The current market volatility, as discussed in the script, may persist for some time and could lead to a potential increase towards the end of the year, but the beginning of 2025 is painted as concerning and potentially unstable.
What does the script suggest about the short-term outlook for market volatility?
-The script suggests that market volatility is expected to persist at least until the September options expiration, with a possible significant rebound towards the end of the year.
What was the reaction of JP Morgan to the current market conditions?
-JP Morgan commented on the high possibilities of recession and noted that they have already unwound 75% of their carry trade operations in Japan, indicating a reduction in market bullishness.
How did the script describe the impact of geopolitical tensions on the market?
-The script described that geopolitical tensions, such as the potential for Iran to attack Israel at any moment, are contributing to market instability alongside concerns over global growth.
What technical analysis points were discussed regarding the S&P 500 index?
-The technical analysis points discussed for the S&P 500 index included the importance of the 100-day moving average as a resistance level at 5308, and the significance of the 200-day moving average at around 5115 as a potential support level.
What are the potential scenarios for the market based on the script's analysis?
-The potential scenarios for the market based on the script's analysis are a bullish scenario if the market surpasses the resistance level of 5315, leading to a possible rise to 5400, and a bearish scenario if the market falls below 5125, which could lead to a rapid decline towards 5000.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Stock Market Instability and Economic Concerns

The script discusses the current instability in stock markets, noting the significant drop in indexes such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. It highlights the uncertainty in market direction, with a specific mention of the impact of the Federal Reserve of Japan's meeting minutes on the Nikkei index. Geopolitical tensions and concerns over economic growth are also cited as factors contributing to market volatility. The script mentions the disappointing results from Super Microcomputer, which affected Nvidia's stock price, and the general unease about the tech sector's performance. It concludes with a general outlook that suggests the market is waiting for clearer signals, with a cautious approach to the upcoming September options expiration and the potential for increased volatility.

05:01

📉 Market Reactions to Economic Indicators and JP Morgan's Comments

This paragraph delves into the market's reaction to economic indicators and the commentary from Diamond of JP Morgan, who suggests a higher likelihood of recession than a soft landing. It also discusses JP Morgan's decision to unwind carry trade operations in Japan, which could signal a bearish trend. The paragraph mentions the continuous decline in commodity prices, which traditionally rise before recessions and then fall, a phenomenon not currently observed. Mel igot's comments on the potential for a prolonged period of market volatility are also included, along with the technical analysis of various stock indices and the potential impact on bond markets.

10:04

📊 Technical and Quantitative Market Analysis

The script provides a detailed technical and quantitative analysis of the market, focusing on key resistance and support levels. It discusses the importance of the 100-day moving average as a critical resistance level and the implications of breaking above or below this level. The analysis also includes potential market scenarios based on whether the market remains above or falls below the 5300 level, with specific targets provided for both bullish and bearish outcomes. The script concludes with a review of the market's structure, noting significant changes in the distribution of positions and the emergence of new resistance levels.

15:08

📈 Market Sentiment and Future Outlook

The final paragraph summarizes the market sentiment and future outlook, emphasizing the importance of the 5200 level as a key support. It discusses the potential for accelerated declines if this level is breached and the possibility of a significant market rebound if resistance levels are overcome. The script also reviews the changing structure of the market's option positions and the implications for future price movements. It concludes with a reminder of the importance of these levels for market stability and a note of caution for investors.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Serenitymarkets

Serenitymarkets appears to be the name of the financial analysis channel or platform hosting the video. It's the context within which the speaker, José Luis Carpatos, is discussing market conditions and financial news. The name suggests a focus on calm, thoughtful market analysis.

💡Instability

Instability in the financial markets is a central theme of the video. The speaker refers to the markets as 'quite unstable' and discusses how they are not clear on the direction they should take, indicating a volatile and unpredictable market environment.

💡Wall Street

Wall Street is mentioned as a significant market indicator. The speaker discusses how the last segment of the Wall Street session led to a significant drop, indicating the influence of this market on global financial stability and investor sentiment.

💡Volatility

Volatility is a key concept in the script, referring to the rapid and unpredictable changes in the market. The speaker mentions that volatility is expected to continue, affecting market behavior and investor strategies.

💡Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan's decisions and statements are highlighted as influential to the market's direction. The script discusses how the bank's readiness to raise interest rates, as revealed in meeting minutes, affects market confidence.

💡Geopolitical Tension

Geopolitical tension is mentioned as a factor affecting the market. The script cites potential conflict between Iran and Israel as an example of how global political events can impact financial markets.

💡Growth Concerns

Growth concerns are discussed in relation to the market's performance. The speaker mentions that despite positive service sector data, the market continues to show concern over growth, indicating a broader economic worry.

💡Super Microcomputer

Super Microcomputer's poor results are used as an example of how individual company performance can impact the market. The speaker discusses the significant drop in the company's stock and its effect on Nvidia, illustrating the ripple effect in the tech sector.

💡Nvidia

Nvidia is mentioned as being affected by Super Microcomputer's poor performance, showing a connection between companies within the same industry. The script uses Nvidia's volatility as an example of market uncertainty.

💡Carry Trade

Carry trade is discussed in the context of JP Morgan's actions in Japan. The script mentions that JP Morgan has unwound its carry trade positions, which can impact market liquidity and investor behavior.

💡Commodity Prices

Commodity prices are highlighted as an indicator of economic health. The script discusses the continuous fall in commodity prices, traditionally seen as a sign before recessions, and how this is being monitored by market analysts.

💡Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is a recurring theme, reflecting the collective attitude of investors towards the market's direction. The script discusses how market sentiment is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical events and company performance.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is used to discuss specific price levels and market trends. The script refers to support and resistance levels, moving averages, and other technical indicators to predict potential market movements.

💡Quantitative Analysis

Quantitative analysis is mentioned in the context of market predictions. The script discusses how quantitative levels coincide with technical levels, providing a dual perspective on market behavior.

💡Recession

Recession is a significant concern discussed in the script. The speaker cites comments from Diamond of JP Morgan and falling commodity prices as indicators of potential economic downturn.

Highlights

Markets remain unstable with no clear direction, experiencing a significant drop of nearly 3% among the S&P500, Nasdaq, and others.

The Nikkei index fell moderately by 0.74%, influenced by the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicating a willingness to raise interest rates.

The yen did not react much to the news, but the crisis's key lies in Japan's economic indicators.

Geopolitical tensions are high with potential threats from Iran and concerns over global growth persisting.

Super Microcomputer's poor results significantly affected Nvidia, causing a sharp decline in its stock price.

Analysts predict continued market volatility, possibly lasting until at least the September options expiration.

JP Morgan has raised the probability of a recession to 35% this year, indicating a pessimistic outlook.

Commodity prices are continuously falling, traditionally a sign before recessions, which is a concern for analysts.

Melgot Aer suggests that market volatility might not calm down within a month, indicating a prolonged period of unrest.

Diamond from JP Morgan comments on the high possibility of a recession rather than a soft landing.

JP Morgan has unwound 75% of its carry trade operations in Japan, signaling a reduction in market bullishness.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond auction showed a weak demand, with the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since December 2022.

Gold prices are rising, while oil prices remain stable, not fully capitalizing on geopolitical tensions.

Technical analysis suggests that the S&P 500's 200-day moving average is a key resistance level to watch.

Institutional investors' quantitative analysis indicates a potential range of fluctuation between 5125 and 5295 for the S&P 500.

A break above the resistance level of 5295 could lead to a significant rise in the S&P 500 index.

A drop below the support level of 5125 could accelerate declines, potentially reaching the 5000 mark.

The market structure has changed significantly, with bullish positions clearing out and focus shifting to lower levels.

The 5000 level now holds more significance with a strong put wall, becoming a crucial support level.