Japón templa gaitas Crónica de cierre 7 8 2024 bolsas, economía y mercados

José Luis Cárpatos

7 Aug 202414:56

Summary

TLDRIn this financial market recap, José Luis Carpatos discusses the significant rebound in markets, driven by the Bank of Japan's reassurances on interest rates amidst a crisis centered in Japan. European indices show gains, with the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, and others rebounding strongly. The script touches on liquidity issues, market volatility, and the impact of geopolitical risks. It also notes the mixed reactions to earnings reports, with some stocks like Super Micro Computer plummeting despite a stock split announcement, while others like Nvidia show resilience. The analysis concludes with technical insights on the S&P 500's future, emphasizing the importance of breaking key resistance levels for a confirmed market trend reversal.

Takeaways

🌐 The script is a financial market analysis video by José Luis Carpatos, discussing the market rebound on August 7th, which was significantly influenced by the Bank of Japan's actions.
📉 The Japanese crisis is centered around liquidity issues, which have been exacerbated by the Bank of Japan's clumsy handling, leading to a sharp market reaction.
📈 European markets, including the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, and the Stoxx 600, are experiencing gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 pulling back after crossing its 200-day moving average.
💹 The market is currently in a state of instability, with the main reason for the rebound being the Bank of Japan's assurance that interest rates will not rise in unstable markets.
📊 Technical analysis suggests that the Euro Stoxx 50 is at a critical level, and a pullback to the 200-day moving average could indicate further downward movement if it fails to hold above this level.
💔 There is a sense of exaggeration in the market movements, possibly due to a collapse in liquidity during August, which is unusual as liquidity has not been this low since 2022.
🗨️ The Bank of Japan's statements have led to a depreciation of the yen, which was desired by the market to prevent further appreciation that was disrupting carry trade operations.
📉 Bonds are giving back some of their recent gains, with the 10-year bond yield falling to 3.94%, indicating that markets are not currently pricing in an immediate recession.
🚫 Wall Street is refuting the possibility of an extraordinary meeting by the Federal Reserve before the September meeting, as stated by Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.
📊 The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell are all rising, despite poor earnings reports from companies like Super Micro Computer, which is down 18% but not significantly impacting the market's rebound.
🔮 Looking ahead, the future of the S&P 500 is uncertain, with technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum and the need to break key levels to confirm if the downturn has ended.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?
-The main topic of the video script is a market analysis and closing session commentary for a trading day, focusing on the impact of the Bank of Japan's actions on global financial markets.
What significant event is mentioned in the script related to the Bank of Japan?
-The significant event mentioned is the Bank of Japan's announcement that they will not raise interest rates in unstable markets, which has contributed to the market rebound.
What is the context of the crisis mentioned in the script?
-The crisis is centered in Japan, initiated by a liquidity collapse due to the perceived clumsiness of the Bank of Japan's actions, and is not necessarily related to fears of a recession or the valuation of tech stocks.
Which market indices are mentioned as having strong rebounds in the script?
-The DAX, EuroStoxx 50, Stoxx 600, and the IES 35 are mentioned as having strong rebounds.
What is the significance of the 200-day moving average in the script's market analysis?
-The 200-day moving average is a key technical indicator in the script. It is mentioned as a level that is difficult to pass without a pullback, and its breach can indicate a decisive market trend.
What is the script's commentary on the liquidity situation in the market?
-The script notes a very low liquidity situation, particularly for the NASDAQ 100 futures, which is unusual and has contributed to the market volatility.
What is the script's stance on the future movements of the Euro against the Yen and the Dollar against the Yen?
-The script indicates that the Euro against the Yen and the Dollar against the Yen are both rising, influenced by the market's reaction to the Bank of Japan's statements.
What is the script's view on the role of bond markets in the current financial situation?
-The script suggests that bond markets are currently returning some of the gains they had accumulated, with the 10-year bond yield dropping, indicating that markets are not discounting an immediate recession.
What is the script's analysis of the situation with Super Micro Computer's stock?
-Despite Super Micro Computer's stock plummeting due to poor results, the script notes that the market is currently focused on rebounds and not paying much attention to such negative news.
What geopolitical risk is mentioned in the script that could impact the markets?
-The script mentions the ongoing geopolitical risk of a potential massive attack from Iran and Hezbollah against Israel as a factor that could cause significant market disruption.
What technical analysis is performed on the S&P 500 future in the script?
-The script performs a technical analysis on the S&P 500 future, noting the formation of a Japanese candlestick pattern that could indicate a potential reversal, and discussing the significance of the 200-day moving average and the RSI indicator.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Rebound Led by Japan's Central Bank Announcement

The script discusses a significant market rebound, which was triggered by the Bank of Japan's recent actions. The bank's governor's statement that interest rates will not rise in unstable markets has calmed the markets. This has led to gains in European indices such as the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, and the S&P 500. The speaker notes the difficulty of passing certain levels without a pullback and suggests that the market is still in a state of uncertainty, with the potential for further declines. The script also touches on the liquidity crisis in Japan and its impact on global markets, as well as the carry trade effects on currencies like the Euro and the US Dollar against the Yen.

05:01

📉 Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions to Economic Data

This paragraph delves into the geopolitical risks that continue to loom over the market, such as the potential for an attack from Iran and Hezbollah on Israel. It also addresses the market's reaction to economic data, suggesting that the bond market is not currently pricing in an imminent recession. The speaker mentions the lack of macroeconomic data to justify the market's downturn and highlights the importance of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings. The paragraph also covers the performance of specific stocks like Super Micro Computer and Disney, which have been negatively impacted by their earnings reports, and the overall sentiment in the market.

10:04

📊 Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

The final paragraph focuses on technical analysis of the S&P 500's future contracts, discussing various candlestick patterns and their implications for the market's direction. The speaker notes the RSI indicator's bearish momentum and the significance of Fibonacci retracement levels. They also mention the importance of breaking above certain resistance levels, such as the 200-day moving average and the Kijun-Sen line, to consider the downtrend neutralized. The paragraph concludes with a cautious outlook, emphasizing the need for further confirmation before considering the bearish trend to have ended.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Serenitymarkets

Serenitymarkets appears to be the name of the platform or channel where the video is hosted. It is the central theme around which the video's content is presented, as the speaker, José Luis Carpatos, discusses market updates and analysis on this platform.

💡Liquidity Crisis

A liquidity crisis refers to a situation where financial institutions or markets face difficulty in meeting their short-term obligations due to insufficient cash or assets that can be quickly converted to cash. In the video, it is mentioned as a central issue in Japan, affecting global markets and causing a significant impact on trading activities.

💡Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan is the country's central bank, which plays a crucial role in monetary policy and financial stability. The speaker mentions it as having a direct influence on the current market situation due to its recent actions and statements regarding interest rates and market stability.

💡Carry Trade

Carry trade is an investment strategy where an investor borrows money in a currency with a low-interest rate and invests it in another currency with a higher interest rate to profit from the difference. The script discusses how the Bank of Japan's actions have affected carry trade operations, impacting currency values.

💡Market Volatility

Market volatility refers to the rapid and significant fluctuations in the price of assets, indicating a high level of uncertainty and risk. The video discusses the recent high volatility in financial markets, which is attributed to various factors, including actions by the Bank of Japan.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method used in the stock market to forecast the future price movements of assets based on past market data, primarily price and volume. The speaker uses technical analysis to interpret market trends and predict future movements, discussing specific patterns like candlestick patterns and moving averages.

💡RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The Relative Strength Index is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements to determine overbought or oversold conditions of an asset. In the script, the RSI is used as an indicator of market momentum, suggesting whether the market is in a bullish or bearish state.

💡Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels during a trend by applying the Fibonacci sequence to an asset's price movements. The video mentions this tool to discuss the potential resistance levels after a significant market drop.

💡NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 is an index of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ stock market. It is often used as a benchmark for technology stocks. The script refers to the low liquidity of NASDAQ 100 futures, indicating a lack of trading activity and potential difficulty in executing large orders.

💡Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical risk refers to the risk of loss incurred due to events or conditions arising from political changes or conflicts around the world. The video mentions the ongoing geopolitical risk involving potential attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, which could impact market stability.

💡Bonds

Bonds are debt securities issued by entities such as governments or corporations to raise capital. In the video, the speaker discusses how bonds are performing in the current market environment, with a focus on the yield of 10-year bonds and how they are affected by market sentiment and economic indicators.

Highlights

Strong rebound in the market, sponsored by the Bank of Japan's announcement.

The crisis appears centered in Japan, with liquidity issues stemming from the Bank of Japan's actions.

Market reaction to the Bank of Japan's governor stating no interest rate hikes in unstable markets.

European markets, including DAX, EURO STOXX 50, and STOXX 600, are showing significant gains.

EURO STOXX 50's pullback after crossing the 200-day moving average.

Discussion on the challenges of passing certain levels without at least a pullback.

Analysis of the liquidity crisis and its impact on market volatility.

Low liquidity in the NASDAQ 100 futures, the lowest since 2022.

Japan's significant role in the current market turmoil and volatility.

Yen depreciation as a market desire following the Bank of Japan's announcements.

Euro and dollar against yen are appreciating.

Bond markets are calming down, with yields retreating from recent gains.

Debunking rumors of an extraordinary Federal Reserve meeting, according to Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.

SP500 and NASDAQ are rising, despite poor results from Super Micro Computer.

Super Micro Computer's stock plummeting 18% despite a 10-for-1 stock split announcement.

Envidia's stock rising, seemingly unaffected by Super Micro Computer's drop.

Disney's stock falling 1.85% following unimpressive results.

Geopolitical risks still present, including potential attacks from Iran and Hezbollah on Israel.

Gold prices rising, supported by favorable inventory data for oil.

Sectorial analysis of the banking sector's recovery, contrasted with the healthcare sector's minimal gains.

Technical analysis of the SP500 future, with a potential reversal pattern discussed.

RSI indicator still suggesting bearish momentum in the SP500 future.

Fibonacci retracement levels indicating resistance at 38.2%.

The importance of breaking above the 100-day moving average for a more neutral market stance.

Mogul bands and their historical strength as resistance and support levels.

The potential for a strong bearish trend if support levels are broken.