ASIO boss explains why mixed ideologies have seen terror threat rise | 7.30
Summary
TLDRIn this program, Mike Burge discusses the recent elevation of Australia's national terrorism threat level to 'probable,' indicating a greater than 50% chance of a terrorist act within the year. He highlights the rapid radicalization of individuals, including minors, driven by a mix of ideologies and grievances, facilitated by the internet and social media. Burge emphasizes the responsibility of the community, including parents and educators, in monitoring and addressing radicalization, and touches on the indirect impact of global events like the conflict in Gaza on domestic security.
Takeaways
- π The national terrorism Threat Level has been raised to 'probable', indicating a greater than 50% chance of an act of terrorism within the next 12 months.
- π The increase is not due to a single incident but a pattern of incidents, with eight attacks or disruptions involving alleged terrorism in the last four months.
- π₯ A notable trend is the involvement of minors and youth in these incidents, with the oldest being 21 and the youngest 14.
- π The motivations behind these incidents are diverse, including religious, nationalist, racist, and mixed ideologies, not just the traditional focus areas.
- π There has been a significant drop in case load related to ISIS since the caliphate's defeat, but the threat has evolved with new forms of radicalization emerging.
- π The internet and social media are key factors in the rapid radicalization of individuals, particularly affecting the youth.
- π The community, including parents, educators, and everyday people, have a responsibility to be aware of and counteract radicalization, especially among young people.
- π The rise of 'accelerationists', individuals with far-right ideologies who aim to bring down society, is a concerning development in the threat landscape.
- π The conflict in Gaza and the reactions to it have indirectly influenced the threat level by driving strong emotions and reactions, making violence seem more permissible.
- π£οΈ Politicians and the media have a crucial role in using careful language and reporting to avoid inflaming tensions and contributing to violence.
- π Espionage and foreign interference remain significant security concerns, and the agency is working to identify and address threats across multiple fronts.
Q & A
What does the term 'probable' mean in the context of the national terrorism Threat Level?
-In the context of the national terrorism Threat Level, 'probable' indicates a greater than 50% chance that within the next 12 months, an individual or small group will resort to violence with little or no warning to commit an act of terrorism.
What was the last time the national terrorism Threat Level was lowered, and why was it raised previously?
-The national terrorism Threat Level was last lowered in November 2022. It was previously raised in 2014 due to the rise of ISIS and the radicalization of individuals influenced by their ideology and charismatic leaders.
How has the environment changed in the last 10-12 months to warrant a change in the Threat Level?
-The environment has changed with more people being radicalized more quickly, and from a range of grievances and ideologies, not just the ones seen in 2014. This includes a broader set and mixing of ideologies where violence is seen as permissible.
What does the increase in incidents involving minors signify about the current threat landscape?
-The increase in incidents involving minors, with the oldest being 21 and the youngest 14, indicates that youth are particularly vulnerable to rapid radicalization, often driven by social media and isolation.
What is the significance of the mixed ideology observed in some of the recent terrorism-related incidents?
-The mixed ideology, such as individuals being influenced by both extreme left and right-wing ideologies, signifies a complex and broad threat landscape where people are turning to violence as a solution from diverse ideological backgrounds.
How has the role of social media contributed to the radicalization of individuals, especially the youth?
-Social media has played a significant role in the rapid radicalization of individuals, including the youth, by providing easy access to extremist content and allowing them to connect with like-minded individuals without the moderating influences of community and school environments.
What is the role of the community, including parents and educators, in addressing the issue of radicalization?
-The community, including parents, caregivers, educators, and everyday people, has a responsibility to be aware of what captivates young people online and to intervene when necessary. It is crucial to understand and manage the potential dangers of unsupervised internet usage.
What is the current assessment of Sunni violent extremism in Australia, and how does it factor into the threat landscape?
-While Sunni violent extremism represents a small number of individuals with a perverse view of Islam, it is a factor in the current threat environment. However, it is not the sole reason for the raised Threat Level, as there is an equal mix of religious and broader ideological motivations.
What is the definition of 'accelerationists', and how do they fit into the current extremist landscape?
-Accelerationists are individuals with a far-right ideology, often neo-Nazis or further extreme, who believe in white supremacy and wish for societal downfall to return to what they believe is the rightful order. They are part of the extremist landscape, sharing information on how to conduct attacks or disrupt societal functions.
How does the conflict in Gaza indirectly impact the threat level, and what is the role of protests in this context?
-The conflict in Gaza indirectly impacts the threat level by driving emotional protests and division. While peaceful protests are part of lawful dissent, the potential for spontaneous violence and the normalization of violence for political objectives are concerning.
What is the responsibility of politicians and the media in the current security environment, especially regarding language and reporting?
-Politicians and the media have a significant role in being careful with their language and reporting to avoid inflaming tensions and leading to violence. They should lead by example in promoting calm and responsible discourse.
Are there active Hamas or Hezbollah groups plotting in Australia, and what is the stance on foreign interference and espionage?
-There are no active Hamas or Hezbollah groups plotting in Australia. However, there are individuals who may be sympathetic and supportive, which is illegal and will be dealt with by authorities. Foreign interference and espionage remain principal security concerns, with the agency working to identify and address these threats.
Outlines
π National Terrorism Threat Level Raised to 'Probable'
The interview begins with Mike Burge discussing the elevation of the national terrorism threat level to 'probable,' indicating a greater than 50% chance of an act of terrorism occurring within the next 12 months. This change is not due to a specific incident but rather a general trend of increasing radicalization, particularly among minors, and the broadening range of ideologies that now include violence as a permissible response. The discussion also touches on the rapid radicalization facilitated by social media and the internet, which has led to a diverse set of grievances and ideologies, not limited to the traditional religious extremism but also encompassing nationalist, racist, and mixed ideologies.
π¨βπ§βπ¦ Community and Family Responsibility in Youth Radicalization
This paragraph delves into the societal and familial responsibilities in addressing the radicalization of young people. It emphasizes the importance of community involvement, including parents, educators, and everyday citizens, in monitoring and understanding the online activities of children. The rapid descent into radical ideologies facilitated by social media and the internet during lockdowns is highlighted, with a call to action for vigilance against the dangers of unsupervised online exposure. The paragraph also discusses the resurgence of neo-Nazism and the role of accelerationists who aim to bring down society, as well as the global connections among these groups, using platforms like Telegram to share violent tactics and strategies.
ποΈ The Impact of International Conflicts and the Role of Politicians
The final paragraph addresses the indirect impact of international conflicts, such as the situation in Gaza, on domestic security, noting how such events can drive strong emotions and reactions, potentially leading to violence. It also discusses the role of politicians and the media in this context, urging them to be mindful of their language and reporting to avoid inciting violence. The conversation turns to the ongoing concerns of espionage and foreign interference, with the acknowledgment that these threats persist alongside the rise in domestically motivated politically violent acts. The interview concludes with a reflection on the challenges faced by security agencies in addressing these multifaceted threats, with a commitment to adapt and respond effectively.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘National Terrorism Threat Level
π‘Radicalization
π‘Caliphate
π‘Violent Extremism
π‘Youth and Minors
π‘Social Media
π‘Sunni Violent Extremism
π‘Neo-Nazis
π‘Mixed Ideology
π‘Accelerationism
π‘Espionage and Foreign Interference
Highlights
Mike Burges has raised the national terrorism threat level to 'probable', meaning there's a greater than 50% chance of an act of terrorism in the next 12 months.
The increase in the threat level is due to more people being radicalized more quickly, and a wider range of grievances and ideologies leading to violence.
In the last four months, there have been eight attacks or disruptions involving alleged terrorism or potential acts of terrorism.
Five of the eight recent incidents involved minors or youth, with ages ranging from 14 to 21.
There is an equal mix of religiously motivated, nationalist, and racist violent extremism in the recent incidents.
A new trend is emerging where individuals may hold mixed ideologies, such as a combination of extreme left-wing and neo-Nazi beliefs.
The internet and social media play a significant role in rapid radicalization, especially among youth.
Sunni violent extremism still poses a threat, but it is not the main driver behind the recent increase in the threat level.
Neo-Nazis remain a significant part of the terrorism threat, with some individuals seeking to accelerate societal downfall.
Young people are particularly vulnerable to radicalization through social media and isolation.
There are global connections among extremist groups, particularly in the neo-Nazi space, where individuals communicate and share information on platforms like Telegram.
The conflict in Gaza has indirectly influenced the terrorism threat level by driving protests and strong emotions.
Politicians and the media have a responsibility to use careful language to avoid inflaming tensions that could lead to violence.
Foreign interference and espionage remain principal security concerns alongside politically motivated violence.
There is no active plotting by Hamas or Hezbollah in Australia, but there are individuals who may be sympathetic to or support these groups.
The Iranian secret service has conducted surveillance in Australia, potentially including lethal operations.
Transcripts
Mike burges welcome to the program thank
you you've lifted the national terrorism
Threat Level to probable what does
probable mean in the world of
intelligence so it's a greater than 50%
chance that in the next 12 months an
individual or small group of individuals
will go to violence um with little or no
warning I conduct an act of terrorism or
plan an act of terrorism so what's
changed what has your organization seen
that's Chang to Warrant this certainly
so ao's role is to set the national
terrorism Threat Level it was last
lowered in November 2022 and that was
off the back of its raising in 2014 when
we had the caliphate starting and we had
an ideology and charismatic individuals
that were radicalizing people and taking
them to do attacks on Shore and just to
remind people that's Isis when you're
talking about the calate that's Isis
correct yes um obviously in 2022 we saw
a significant drop off in our case load
the caliphate had been defeated and it
wasn't resonating here on Shore and we
had a good news story of a great number
of people no longer a problem to
security since that time though
obviously the environment has changed
particularly in the last 10 12 months um
where today we have and it's completely
different to when it was raised in 2014
more people are being radicalized more
quickly more people think violence is
permissible from a range of Grievances
and ideologies not just what we saw when
we raised it in
2014 now in the last four months you
said today there have been eight attacks
or disruptions involving alleged
terrorism or potential acts of terrorism
did those incidents those eight events
specifically lead to the change today
not directly of course one incident or a
couple of incidents are not a reason to
raise the Threat Level but they are an
indication of what we're seeing in
society across those eight incidents
we're talking about five of them involve
minors or youth the oldest was 21 the
youngest was 14 the other um across the
eight there's an equal mix of
religiously motivated Nationalist and
racist violent extremism and in one case
a mixed ideology that goes to the left
and right and deliberately I say those
words which defies logic but it's an
indication of the broad set and the
mixing set of ideologies where people
think violence is the answer they were
all but too unknown to us and police so
this is the new thing people will go to
violence with a little no warning and
they won't be known to us or little or
no planning in the cases of some of
these that I've talked about so um
people of course will remember the uh
the event in wakeley the the stabbing of
the bishop and then uh a series of
counterterrorism raids that took place
so you're talking about six incidents or
events since that time that's correct
what can you tell us about those events
well more broadly again they they're
symptomatic of the what we're seeing in
society increased temperature violence
is more permissible and a range of
ideology so we see that religiously
motivated Nationalist and racist and
mixed ideology minors are in the mix the
youth are particularly vulnerable driven
by social media that isolation problem
it's easier to be radicalized and of
course people are being radicalized
quickly the internet is a great thing
but it also allows individuals to catch
on to something and get there in a
matter of days not months or years and
that's particularly concerning now in
February you warned that Sunni violent
extremism well you said that Sunni
violent extremism poses the greatest
religiously motivated threat in
Australia how much is that driving this
threat ass assessment just to be clear
so not much of that is driving that yes
that is certainly in our mix and if I
can be clear of course when I say Sunni
violent extremism I'm talking about
people who have a small number of people
have a perverse view of the religion
Islam they don't represent the religion
they believe they do but that's not
people of Islamic faith but that is a
factor in our environment but that's not
the reason why we've raised the Threat
Level today in these eight examples how
much of those are religious are
religiously motivated there's a few in
there it's not more than half though and
it's not half actually of um there's an
equal mix of um religious and broader
ideological or mixed ideology talk to
talk to us about that mixed ideology so
we understand it when you say
ideological What ideologies so one
particular instant we have an individual
that's Ed on to antifa so extreme left
wing but actually in the manifesto
there's
neo-nazis that defies logic um I'd
suggest they're not really hooked on
either of those ideologies they're
hooked on the violence elements of that
of course that is subject to much study
and much more study that we have to do
to understand it let's talk about the
young people because it was clear in
some of the information that we saw that
emerged at the time of the joint
counterterrorism raids that there were
some those things you're talking about
small groups very Speedy
radicalization but young people in
particular what responsibility does the
community have and the families have
yeah absolutely so so when I mean when
the police or Security Service involved
it's too late there's acts in
preparation acts underway we all have a
responsibility this is a whole of
society parents caregivers Educators
coaches and sporting team Everyday
People it's really important knowing
what your children are up to knowing
what this is captivating them online of
course we can have a long conversation
about the difficulties in managing all
of that but that's incredibly important
in Co when people were locked down we
50% of my priority cter terrorism case
load were minors locked in their bedroom
on their devices you can fall down a
rabbit of hate quickly Rabbit Hole of
hate quickly not moderated by the events
of schoolyard and Community groups all
the positive benefits of family ings of
course CO's no longer with us but it's
still an issue it's a concern how social
media can grab people quickly the
internet can grab people quickly and
hurt young brains which are not fully
formed and so in the case of these
events that we're looking at this year
you've mentioned so far you have got um
some part of Sunni violent extremism
you've got far left meets far right what
else is in that mix neo-nazis are a big
portion of our mix so that's long been a
thing in this country at one point it
was 50% of our investive case load it's
dropped off but it's still prominent
they're still active most of the work of
neo-nazis is to recruit to their cause
unlikely to go to acts of terrorism of
course it's the individuals that come
into those groups and don't like that
moderation or elements of that neonazi
ideology that are called acceleration
it's those people who want to bring down
society and they will undertake acts to
accelerate the downfall of society as we
know it today and what do we know about
the connections that people especially
young people have with individuals
overseas I know you say there's a lot of
people who are radicalizing very quickly
but there are still influential older
people involved aren't there uh there
there are um but we also have on the
first side um youngsters who are
actually leading groups so that's kind
of a it's a thing um on in the Neo-Nazi
space accelerationists there is a group
that's connected globally they use apps
where they're talking to each other
Telegram and a channel called terram and
they're communicating with each other
they're generating manuals they're
sharing information on how to do attacks
or how to disrupt a power station
because accelerationists will turn the
power off to try and bring Society down
what's an accelerationist so it's people
with a far right ideology Neo-Nazi or
even further where they believe in white
supremacy and they don't like the way
the world is run today and they want it
to downfall to return things to what
they believe is the rightful order and
you said that in relation to some of
these behaviors they did gain momentum
after the terrorist attacks on Israel
and accelerated during Israel's response
what role then in that element of this
what role is the war playing well it's a
it's not a direct so we didn't raise a
threat level in direct response to the
conflict in Gaza but of course it has an
indirect impact it has driven protest it
has driven division
it's and those protests are getting very
emotional and there's been spontaneous
violence and it becomes a bit of its own
weather system and the wrong thing
happens and it fires up the other wrong
thing so it's driving very strong
emotions and strong reactions and again
that's our concern violence is more
permissible for your political objective
or promoting your cause peaceful protest
is absolutely fine in this country
lawful dissent is fine but when it
becomes unpeaceful and unlawful that's
when we know we have a problem what role
do politician Ians have then In This
Moment particularly when it comes to
language politicians have exceptional
role here but so does the whole of
community after the 7th of October I put
out a statement that said inflame
language inflame tension leads to
violence politicians absolutely lead the
charge there in terms of being careful
of their words and actions the media if
I may the media have a responsibility in
terms of how they report by all means
report what you need to report but how
you do it really does matter now we've
got used to you talking about Espionage
and in particular foreign interference
so with this increase that's led to the
um to this new designation I presume
that doesn't mean that foreign
interference and Espionage has
diminished in any way sadly not
Espionage and foreign interference are
still principal security concerns and
unfortunately as of today so is
politically motivated violence my agency
is stretched but our job is to identify
these threats and with our partners in
law enforcement and elsewhere deal with
them um let me just ask you this do
formally we're talking about informal
groupings here but just on the formal
side do Hamas and Hezbollah have uh
Representatives strong Connections in
Australia there are people in this
country that will be sympathetic to and
may well support them of course if
they're supporting them they're breaking
the law and if we find them the police
will be informed and that will be dealt
with we don't have active Hamas or
Hezbollah groups plotting things in this
country absolutely not um at the same
time we know that the Iranian Secret
Service have moved moved against media
representatives in other parts of the
world in there was a stabbing in London
do they pose a threat in the same way in
Australia we've caught the Iranians here
um surveilling individuals in this
country they they're a country that's
capable of dealing with threats to their
country as they see them including
surveillance and potentially worse of
course when we see that we deal with it
and a few years ago Minister O'Neal was
talking about how we found that and we
dealt with that um when you say
potentially worse can you explain what
you mean by potentially wor up to
including lethal operations as in
killing someone as in assassinations yes
um has that threat continued after the
last time it was talked about um we keep
an open investigation to that but of
course in public I wouldn't disclose
what we know because obviously that
might stop us from doing our job well um
you just mentioned that you are stretch
because you're talking about having to
deal with a a huge number of fronts
different ideologies as well as
Espionage and foreign interference does
need more money with the dangerous world
we live in we are stretch but you
appreciate if I needed more money I'd
ask that in private to government my job
as director on Securities to make sure I
have the laws and the resource to do our
job we're stretched is probably all I'd
want to say publicly Mike burges thank
you very much indeed for joining us
thanks for your time
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