반등했지만 침체는 해결된 게 없습니다(ft.ISM오류)

전인구경제연구소

6 Aug 202409:41

Summary

TLDRThe video script discusses the volatile stock market reactions to recent economic indicators, focusing on the ISM service PMI which brought temporary relief but also uncertainty. It highlights the unusual foreign investor behavior in the Kospi, the panic selling of Samsung Electronics, and the potential impact of interest rate fluctuations between Japan and the U.S. The speaker suggests that the market's panic might be due to interest rate 'spasms' rather than a true economic downturn, and emphasizes the importance of considering various perspectives beyond news headlines when investing in stocks.

Takeaways

📉 The market panicked due to a sudden drop, but later found relief after the ISM service PMI recorded 51.4, indicating better-than-expected service industry performance.
🔄 The manufacturing sector performed worse than expected, while the service sector did better, leading to a fluctuating stock market that could change interpretations from day to day.
🤔 The speaker suggests that there might be some unusual signs in the market, hinting at potential changes in market trends despite the current upward movement.
📈 The speaker finds it challenging to point out oddities during an uptrend because it goes against the general sentiment, but believes it's essential to share these observations.
🤝 The script mentions a discrepancy between foreign investors' actions and the market's performance, with a significant net selling position in KOSPI during a rebound.
📱 Samsung Electronics, a key stock, showed weakness despite an early surge, indicating that foreign investors are not participating in the rebound, having sold large volumes during the panic.
💹 The market's reaction to interest rates is crucial; the speaker feels that interest rates can create a 'waterfall' market drop or a 'change area' where the market gradually falls while people are still trading.
🇯🇵 The script suggests that Japan's interest rate hike and the potential for further increases in the U.S. might have caused the market drop, rather than a genuine economic downturn.
📊 The service PMI index has been highly volatile and often deviates significantly from predictions, casting doubt on its reliability as a leading indicator.
🌐 The rapid change in interest rate spreads between Japan and the U.S. could lead to a swift market reaction, with implications for corporate profits and the potential for a downturn.
⏳ The speaker emphasizes the importance of timing and the degree of interest rate adjustments, suggesting that the market will continue to be sensitive to economic signals and potential policy changes.

Q & A

What triggered the market panic yesterday?
-The market panic was triggered by a sudden drop followed by the release of the ISM services PMI at 51.4, which led to a relief rally.
How did the manufacturing and services sectors perform compared to expectations?
-The manufacturing sector performed worse than expected, while the services sector performed better than expected.
What unusual activity did foreign investors exhibit in the KOSPI market?
-Foreign investors sold 1.5 trillion won worth of KOSPI stocks but balanced it by buying 12,000 futures contracts. Today, however, they sold stock futures during the rebound.
How did the performance of Samsung Electronics differ yesterday and today?
-Yesterday, foreign investors sold 1.58 million shares of Samsung Electronics, causing panic. Today, they sold over 2 million shares, showing they did not participate in the rebound.
What are the characteristics of a market drop caused by interest rate issues according to the speaker?
-A market drop caused by interest rate issues is sudden and strong, making it difficult to respond, similar to a fastball.
What are the characteristics of a market drop caused by economic recession concerns according to the speaker?
-A market drop caused by economic recession concerns is gradual and deceptive, like a breaking ball, making it seem like the market can be handled while it slowly declines.
What does the speaker think about the ISM services PMI as an indicator?
-The speaker believes the ISM services PMI is not a reliable leading indicator due to its frequent large deviations from predictions and its highly volatile nature.
What historical examples did the speaker provide to illustrate market reactions to interest rate changes and economic recessions?
-The speaker mentioned the market reactions in December 2015 to the first Fed rate hike, leading to a 19% drop, and the market reaction in 2018 due to US-China trade tensions and recession fears, leading to a 20% drop over three months.
What are the current market concerns regarding interest rates and economic recession?
-The current concerns are the sudden appreciation of the yen due to Japan's unexpected rate hike and the rapid changes in US rate expectations, causing market instability.
What does the speaker suggest about interpreting market news and making investment decisions?
-The speaker suggests not getting overly influenced by market news and instead considering various opinions to make objective investment decisions.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Market Panic and Recovery: Analyzing Economic Indicators

The script discusses a sudden market drop that led to panic, followed by relief when the ISM service PMI recorded 51.4, indicating better-than-expected service industry performance. The author notes the unpredictability of market reactions to economic indicators, suggesting that while manufacturing PMI was worse than expected, the service sector showed resilience. The narrative also touches on the difficulty of interpreting market movements accurately, especially during times of uncertainty. The author observes peculiar foreign investor behavior in the KOSPI, highlighting a significant net selling position during a market rebound, which is unusual. The script also mentions the lack of foreign participation in a market rebound and the weak performance of Samsung Electronics despite a strong start, suggesting a disconnect in market sentiment. The author concludes by emphasizing the importance of experience and intuition in understanding market movements, especially in the context of economic indicators and interest rates, which can create sudden market downturns or recovery periods.

05:01

💹 Economic Indicators and Market Volatility: A Closer Look

This paragraph delves into the complexities of interpreting economic indicators and their impact on market volatility. The author discusses the rapid changes in market sentiment, especially in response to interest rate fluctuations and economic signals from the US and Japan. The narrative highlights the potential for a 'carry trade' collapse due to rapid interest rate changes, which could lead to swift market sell-offs. The author also points out the inconsistency between the manufacturing and service PMI indicators, suggesting that the service sector's performance might not be as robust as it seems, given its close ties to unemployment rates. The script further explores the potential for a market panic due to a combination of factors, including AI-related company fears and political influences, such as the upcoming US elections and their potential impact on economic policies. The author advises investors to consider a variety of opinions and not rely solely on news reports, emphasizing the importance of objective judgment in investment decisions.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Panic

Panic refers to a sudden, irrational feeling of fear or anxiety that can lead to hasty actions. In the context of the video, it describes the market's reaction to unexpected downturns, where investors may hastily sell off assets without rational thought. The script mentions the market 'panicking' due to a sudden drop, indicating a loss of confidence and control among investors.

💡ISM Service PMI

The ISM Service PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is an economic indicator that reflects the activity level of the service sector. A reading above 50 indicates growth, while below 50 signals contraction. In the video, the ISM Service PMI recording of 51.4 is mentioned as a relief rally for the market, suggesting that the service sector is performing slightly better than expected, which temporarily eased market concerns.

💡Manufacturing PMI

Manufacturing PMI is similar to the ISM Service PMI but specifically measures the performance of the manufacturing sector. A lower than expected Manufacturing PMI suggests that this sector is underperforming. The script indicates that the manufacturing sector is not doing as well as anticipated, contributing to market uncertainty.

💡Market Sentiment

Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude or mood of investors toward the market or a particular security. It can influence buying and selling decisions. The video discusses how market sentiment can change rapidly, with initial positive interpretations of economic indicators sometimes followed by negative reactions as more details emerge or as investors reassess the situation.

💡Foreign Investors

Foreign investors are individuals or entities that invest in markets outside their home country. Their actions can significantly influence market dynamics. The script notes a 'suspicious trend' by foreign investors in the KOSPI index, where they sold off large quantities during a market rebound, indicating a lack of confidence in the market's recovery.

💡Samsung Electronics

Samsung Electronics is a major South Korean multinational conglomerate and a key player in the technology sector. Its stock performance can influence the overall market. The video mentions Samsung Electronics' stock being heavily sold by foreign investors during a market panic, contributing to the downward pressure on the stock and the broader market.

💡Interest Rate Hike

An interest rate hike refers to an increase in the interest rate set by a country's central bank. It can affect borrowing costs and investment decisions. The script discusses how the market reacted to the possibility of interest rate hikes, with the fear of rising rates causing a sharp market decline, reflecting the sensitivity of financial markets to monetary policy changes.

💡Economic Recession

An economic recession is a period of negative economic growth that lasts for at least two consecutive quarters. It often leads to higher unemployment and reduced consumer spending. The video suggests that the market downturn might be due to fears of an economic recession, with investors concerned about the impact of rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions on economic growth.

💡Stock Market Volatility

Stock market volatility refers to the degree of variation of a trading price series over time. High volatility implies larger fluctuations in the market and greater risk. The script describes the stock market as being highly volatile, with significant price swings reflecting the uncertainty and rapid changes in investor sentiment.

💡Yield Curve

The yield curve is a line that plots the interest rates, or yields, of bonds across different maturity dates. It is used to predict economic growth and recessions. The video mentions the yield curve as an indicator of potential economic problems, with changes in the yield curve suggesting that investors are concerned about the future direction of the economy.

💡Monetary Policy

Monetary policy refers to the actions of a central bank, aimed at influencing the economy through interest rates and money supply. The video discusses the importance of monetary policy in shaping market expectations, with the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates being a key factor in market stability or instability.

💡Economic Indicators

Economic indicators are statistics that inform investors about the current state of the economy and its likely future direction. The video emphasizes the role of economic indicators like the ISM Service PMI and unemployment rates in shaping market expectations and investor behavior, with the script noting how these indicators can be interpreted differently over time.

Highlights

Market panic due to sudden drop yesterday, followed by relief rally after ISM services PMI came in at 51.4.

Manufacturing PMI worse than expected, while services PMI better than expected.

Market may reinterpret the situation today, as it sometimes happens that the market interprets indicators one way on the day they are released and then the opposite the next day.

The speaker is watching for signs of change in the market, as it can be difficult to call tops in an uptrend due to lower probability.

Foreigners showed a suspicious move in KOSPI yesterday, selling 1.5 trillion won while buying 12,000 futures contracts to balance, but today they sold futures in the rebound market.

Samsung Electronics fell despite a strong open, with foreigners selling heavily yesterday and today, not participating in the rebound.

Need to understand the cause of the shock to deal with the market - whether it's due to recessionary fears or other reasons.

The speaker prioritizes experience and gut feeling, associating interest rates with creating sudden, sharp downturns ('waterfall' pattern), while recessions create more gradual, 'change wave' declines.

The market may have overreacted to Japan's interest rate hike and the possibility of faster rate hikes in the US, causing a panic drop.

The yen has stabilized and the drop has subsided, with the Nikkei rising more than KOSPI today, which the speaker attributes to this stabilization.

Looking back at past market movements, the initial Fed rate hike in Dec 2015 caused a 19% Nasdaq drop, followed by a V-shaped rebound.

In 2018, the US-China trade conflict and recession fears led to a 20% index drop over 3 months, with a slower recovery compared to interest rate shock.

The recent service PMI gave some hope that a recession may not be imminent, but the speaker questions the reliability of this indicator.

Service PMI has a history of large misses vs forecasts and volatile swings between boom and recession within a month, casting doubt on its usefulness as a leading indicator.

The current market drop may have been driven by Japan's first interest rate hike and talk of further hikes, causing a panic among investors.

The US may need to cut interest rates faster than expected to combat a recession, as the recent rate cut talk has not resolved market fears.

Market may face more fear of a recession when upcoming indicators show continued weakness, such as further manufacturing PMI declines or higher unemployment rates.

The speaker suggests looking at a 6-month average of the ISM services index to see the gradual recession since 2022, rather than focusing on monthly volatility.

The market should focus on interest rates and whether the US will cut them quickly enough to prevent a recession, rather than just looking at short-term economic data releases.

The timing and magnitude of the Fed's rate cuts will be key, as will Japan's decisions on how much to raise rates to counter the yen's strength.

The upcoming US election adds uncertainty, as Trump's interests may be at odds with the market's in the short term, potentially leading to market-unfriendly actions to boost his approval ratings.