Share Market In Red | गिरते बाजार में क्या करें निवेशक? | Share Market Crash | Nifty | Sensex

CNBC Awaaz.

5 Aug 202414:05

Summary

TLDRThe video script discusses the turbulent nature of the market, focusing on two significant upcoming events: the Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical tensions. It emphasizes the unpredictability of the market due to these factors, with a particular concern about the Middle East's role as a global oil pipeline. The speaker shares insights on market behavior, investor strategies, and potential impacts on crude oil prices. They also touch upon the importance of risk management and the need for investors to stay informed and adaptable in such volatile times.

Takeaways

🌪️ The market is experiencing a significant storm, prompting in-depth discussions on why this is happening and how investor behavior should be.
🗣️ There is a lot of speculation about the Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with some predicting multiple cuts within the year.
🌍 Geopolitical tensions are considered a significant risk, with one senior person at a market participant event highlighting it as their biggest concern.
📉 Concerns are raised about the potential uncontrollable nature of geopolitical situations, which can escalate rapidly and affect global markets, especially oil prices.
🛑 The speaker emphasizes the unpredictability of the situation, suggesting that it could be more impactful than the Federal Reserve's actions.
📊 Technical analysis is discussed, with the speaker sharing their conditional bets based on market movements and support levels.
💰 The speaker advises retail investors to be cautious, especially if they are not in control of the factors affecting the market, and to wait for the right opportunities.
📈 There is a mention of commodities like gold, silver, and crude oil, which are expected to catch up to their respective highs from 2008, indicating a bullish trend.
🏦 The banking sector is highlighted as a potential area of concern, with past crises being referenced to emphasize the importance of being prepared for market fluctuations.
💡 The importance of having a plan of action and being informed is stressed, as the market is influenced by a multitude of factors that are often out of individual control.
🌐 The interconnectedness of global economies is noted, with various regions facing different challenges that can collectively impact the market.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the 'Market Special' segment?
-The main topic of discussion in the 'Market Special' segment is the recent turmoil in the market and the behavior of traders and investors in response to it.
What are the two significant events mentioned in the script that are expected to impact the market?
-The two significant events mentioned are the Federal Reserve rate cut expected in September and the geopolitical tensions which are currently high and could potentially escalate.
What does the speaker suggest could be the biggest risk factor in the market according to a senior person he met?
-The speaker suggests that the senior person he met considers geopolitical risks as the biggest risk factor in the market.
What is the speaker's personal strategy or approach towards the two significant events mentioned?
-The speaker's personal strategy is to wait and watch, focusing more on the material economic impact of the events rather than the timing of the Federal Reserve rate cut.
What does the speaker imply about the situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on global markets?
-The speaker implies that the situation in the Middle East is volatile and could have a significant impact on global markets, particularly due to its role as a global supply pipeline for crude oil.
What is the speaker's view on the potential for a 'reverse' in the market due to geopolitical tensions?
-The speaker believes that if geopolitical tensions escalate to a dangerous level and more countries get involved, the situation could become uncontrollable, potentially leading to a 'reverse' in the market.
What is the speaker's conditional bet regarding the market's behavior if it reaches certain support levels?
-The speaker's conditional bet is that if the market reaches support levels around 68 and does not go below 70, he would bet on the long side, expecting the market to not fall below 68.
What is the speaker's opinion on gold, silver, and crude oil as investment assets in the current market scenario?
-The speaker believes that gold is already in a bullish trend and has reached its all-time high. He also expects silver and crude oil to catch up, potentially reaching their respective highs of 2008.
What is the term 'Chakravyuh' mentioned in the script, and how does the speaker relate it to the current market situation?
-The term 'Chakravyuh' refers to a complex and intricate formation in warfare. The speaker relates it to the current market situation, indicating that the market is in a complex state with multiple factors at play, making it difficult to predict the outcome.
What advice does the speaker give to retail investors regarding their investment strategy in the current market conditions?
-The speaker advises retail investors to wait and watch, suggesting that they should be prepared for the market's volatility and not make hasty decisions.
What is the significance of the speaker mentioning the events of 2020 and the impact on the market?
-The speaker uses the events of 2020, such as the pandemic and market crashes, to highlight the importance of resilience and the ability to withstand market shocks, advising investors to be prepared for similar situations.

Outlines

00:00

🌪️ Market Turmoil and Geopolitical Tensions

The speaker discusses the current storm in the market and the special focus on understanding why it happened and the behavior of investor traders. Two significant upcoming events are highlighted: the expected Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the unpredictable geopolitical tensions, which are perceived as the biggest risk by a senior person in the market. The speaker shares an anecdote about a market participant's concern over geopolitical issues and seeks advice on strategy regarding these events. The conversation also touches on the Middle East as a global supply pipeline for crude oil and the potential risks of conflict in the region.

05:01

📉 Market Analysis and Investment Strategy

This paragraph delves into a technical analysis of market charts, particularly focusing on the brand's performance since 2020. The speaker observes a bullish setup and shares a conditional buy strategy based on the brand's support levels. They also discuss the potential for a catch-up game among various asset classes, including silver, crude, and gold, which are all expected to reach their respective highs set in 2008. The speaker emphasizes the importance of timing and market sentiment, suggesting a wait-and-watch approach for retail investors amidst the complex global economic scenario.

10:01

🛑 Caution and Market Preparedness

The speaker advises retail investors to be cautious and prepared for the market's unpredictability. They mention various global economic factors, including recession fears, rate cut discussions, and ongoing wars, which contribute to the market's complexity. The advice is to wait and watch for the right moment to invest, emphasizing the importance of physical and mental health in withstanding market volatility. The speaker also provides specific investment advice for those who are healthy and capable of bearing risks, suggesting a 25-30% investment allocation and being ready to invest more if the market dips further.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Market Turbulence

Market Turbulence refers to the unpredictable and often volatile movement of financial markets. In the video's context, it is discussed as a significant event that has affected investor behavior and market strategies. The script mentions 'तुफान' (storm) to describe the market situation, indicating a period of instability and potential risk for investors.

💡Fed Rate Cut

A Fed Rate Cut refers to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, which can stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper. The script discusses expectations of a rate cut in September, with some speculating about the magnitude of the cut, which is a central theme in the video as it impacts market predictions and investor strategies.

💡Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical Tensions refer to the political conflicts or rivalries between countries that can affect global markets and economies. The video script mentions 'ज़ियो पॉलिटिकल टेंशन' (geopolitical tensions) as a significant risk factor, particularly highlighting the unpredictability and potential impact on markets, such as the Middle East situation affecting oil supply.

💡Investor Behavior

Investor Behavior is the way individuals or institutions act in response to market conditions and information. The script explores how investors should behave in the face of market turbulence and geopolitical tensions, suggesting a cautious approach and the need for a well-thought-out strategy.

💡Crude Oil

Crude Oil is a commodity that is central to global energy markets and is often affected by geopolitical events. The video discusses 'कच्चा तेल' (crude oil) in the context of Middle East tensions and how disruptions in supply can lead to price fluctuations and market instability.

💡Market Participant

A Market Participant is any individual or organization that is involved in the buying and selling of securities in the financial markets. The script refers to the experiences and perspectives of a 'मार्केट पार्टिसिपेंट' (market participant) to illustrate the ground realities of market dynamics and the influence of global events.

💡Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment is the process of evaluating the potential risks involved in an investment or market situation. The video emphasizes the importance of understanding and assessing risks, such as geopolitical tensions and market volatility, to make informed investment decisions.

💡Supply Chain Disruption

Supply Chain Disruption refers to the interruption or disturbance in the normal functioning of a supply chain, often due to unforeseen events. The script uses the term to describe potential impacts on the oil supply due to geopolitical conflicts, which can lead to market uncertainty and price volatility.

💡Economic Impact

Economic Impact refers to the effects that events or policies have on an economy, which can include changes in growth, employment, or inflation. The video discusses the potential economic impact of geopolitical tensions and market events, such as how a rate cut or oil supply disruption might affect economies globally.

💡Investment Strategy

Investment Strategy is a plan or method for investing money with consideration of an individual's financial goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions. The script suggests that investors should have a clear strategy in place to navigate the current market conditions, emphasizing the need for adaptability and risk management.

💡Market Rally

A Market Rally is a period of time during which the prices of securities in a financial market are rising. The video mentions a 'रैली' (rally) in the context of the market's response to various events and how investors might interpret such movements as opportunities or signs of recovery.

Highlights

Market turbulence has been a significant topic of discussion due to recent events.

Investors and traders are trying to understand the reasons behind market fluctuations.

Upcoming events such as the Federal Reserve rate cut in September are anticipated to have a significant impact.

There is speculation about the number of rate cuts that might occur within the year, with some predicting three cuts.

Geopolitical tensions are cited as a significant risk factor in the market, with an emphasis on the unpredictability of such events.

An experienced market participant expressed concern over geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential for unseen 'brewing' events.

The Middle East situation is highlighted as particularly concerning due to its role as a global oil pipeline.

The potential for conflict in the Middle East and its subsequent impact on oil supply is a significant worry for the market.

Market participants are advised to be cautious, with a focus on high-risk events and their potential outcomes.

The discussion includes strategies for investors to navigate through the current market conditions.

The importance of understanding market behavior and investor psychology is emphasized for making informed decisions.

The transcript mentions the resilience of certain market indicators, such as the Brent crude oil price, which has not dipped below a certain level since 2020.

There is a conditional buy recommendation for investors, suggesting specific price levels to consider for long positions.

The potential for a 'catch-up' in asset classes like silver and crude oil is discussed, with expectations for them to reach previous highs.

Gold is identified as already in a bullish trend, with a target set for the festive season.

Central banks' gold buying activities are noted, suggesting a strategic move to diversify reserves.

The transcript concludes with advice for retail investors to wait and watch, emphasizing the importance of timing and preparedness in investment decisions.