Indian Market is getting overvalued. Time to shift to US Stocks? | Akshat Shrivastava

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the US stock market, highlighting the potential for investment, especially with upcoming elections and the current market conditions. They emphasize the importance of long-term investing in solid companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon, and the significance of diversifying portfolios internationally. The speaker also shares insights on NASDAQ's long-term growth potential and the shift from growth to value stocks, suggesting that now might be a strategic time to invest in value stocks like Global Ship Lease.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker is building positions in the US stock market, anticipating a pivot in the market and discussing the upcoming elections' potential impact.
• 🌐 The speaker emphasizes the importance of long-term investing and the stability of certain US tech giants like Google, Apple, and Amazon, suggesting they are unlikely to disappear in the near future.
• 🌟 The speaker highlights the significance of understanding the US market and the power of companies like Meta, which serves a large portion of the world's population daily.
• 🔄 The speaker is diversifying their portfolio internationally to hedge against potential changes in the Indian market, including the 12.5% long-term capital gains tax.
• 🤝 The speaker is starting an NRI community to share insights on international investing, including opportunities in Dubai, the US, and Thailand.
• 📊 The NASDAQ has seen a good run up and is considered a good accumulation zone with a long-term target of approximately 26,000, offering a 50% gain potential.
• 💡 The speaker discusses the potential for a tech stock correction due to high valuations and the rotation of money between value and growth stocks.
• 📉 Warren Buffet's recent portfolio adjustments, such as reducing holdings in Apple, suggest a cautious approach to growth stocks and a potential shift towards value stocks.
• 🚢 The speaker is considering investing in Global Ship Lease, a company that could benefit from increased trade, especially with China's economic rebound.
• 📉 The speaker suggests that value stocks may be a better short-term investment due to the potential for a correction in growth stocks, driven by factors like high interest rates and the AI rally.
• 🗳️ The speaker concludes that election years are generally good for investing in the stock market, supported by historical data, and encourages taking advantage of the current situation.

Q & A

Why did the speaker stop discussing the US stock market for a few months?

The speaker stopped discussing the US stock market because they were not buying much in that market during that period.

What is the speaker's current view on the US market and their investment strategy?

The speaker feels that the US market is set to be pivoted and is currently building a lot of positions in anticipation of this change.

What is the speaker's perspective on long-term investing in US companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon?

The speaker believes that these companies are not going away in the next 3-4 years and are good long-term investments due to their widespread use and influence.

Why is the speaker advocating for international diversification of portfolios?

The speaker is advocating for international diversification to hedge against potential changes in the Indian market, such as the 12.5% LTCG tax, and to spread risk.

What is the speaker's view on the upcoming US elections and their impact on the stock market?

The speaker suggests that election years are generally good for investing in the stock market, with historical data showing a higher percentage of positive returns during these years.

What technical analysis concept is the speaker referring to when discussing NASDAQ's potential future performance?

The speaker is referring to the 'cup with handle' pattern, which suggests a strong accumulation phase and a potential upward price movement.

What is the speaker's long-term target for NASDAQ based on the technical analysis?

The speaker's long-term target for NASDAQ is approximately 26,000, which represents a 50% gain from the current levels.

What type of stocks are currently favored by ultra-high net worth individuals according to the speaker?

Ultra-high net worth individuals are continuing to invest in US tech stocks, particularly those oriented towards NASDAQ.

What is the distinction the speaker makes between value stocks and growth stocks in the US market?

Growth stocks are companies like the M7s (e.g., Google, Netflix) that are expected to grow rapidly, while value stocks are more consistent, stable companies like GM or shipping companies.

What is the speaker's view on the potential for a short-term correction in growth stocks?

The speaker believes there is a high chance of a short-term correction in growth stocks due to factors like the recent AI rally and high-interest rates.

Can you provide an example of a value stock that the speaker is considering for investment?

The speaker is considering an investment in Global Ship Lease, a company that operates shipping containers and could benefit from increased trade.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 US Stock Market Insights and Long-Term Investing

The speaker discusses their recent focus on the US stock market, highlighting the potential for investment pivots and the importance of long-term investing. They emphasize the stability and growth of major US companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon, and the significance of understanding the US market for international diversification. The speaker also mentions the establishment of an NRI community to share insights on international investing opportunities, including real estate in Dubai.

05:01

📊 NASDAQ Performance and Election Year Investment Trends

This paragraph delves into the performance of the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices, with a focus on the technical analysis of NASDAQ's potential long-term growth to reach 26,000. The speaker also examines the historical performance of the stock market during election years, suggesting that it is a favorable time for investment. They touch on the concept of value versus growth stocks, noting the rotation of money between these categories and the current trend favoring value stocks.

10:02

🚢 Investing in Value Stocks and Global Ship Lease Analysis

The speaker identifies value stocks as a potentially lucrative area for investment, especially in the short term, and contrasts them with growth stocks which may be due for a correction. They provide a specific example of a value stock, Global Ship Lease, a company operating in the shipping container industry. The speaker explains how increased trade, especially with China's economic rebound, could benefit such companies. They also mention the cyclical nature of the business and provide a brief analysis of the company's financial health, suggesting it as a good turnaround stock for investment.

Keywords

💡US Stock Markets

US Stock Markets refer to the various exchanges where stocks of US companies are traded. The video discusses the speaker's recent interest in building positions in these markets, indicating a belief in their potential for growth. This is central to the theme of the video, as it sets the stage for further discussion on investment opportunities within the US market.

💡Long-term Investing

Long-term investing is an investment approach where investors hold onto their assets for an extended period, often years, to benefit from potential growth. The video emphasizes the importance of this strategy, particularly in the context of investing in companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon, which are expected to remain strong over a decade. This concept is integral to the speaker's investment philosophy.

💡NASDAQ

NASDAQ is a major US stock exchange known for listing technology and biotechnology companies. The script mentions NASDAQ as an index that the speaker has been investing in and expects to see a significant increase in value over the long term. The discussion around NASDAQ is a key part of the video's exploration of potential investment areas.

💡S&P 500

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the US. In the video, the speaker contrasts the NASDAQ with the S&P 500 to highlight different types of investments and market trends. Understanding the S&P 500 is crucial for investors looking to gauge the overall health of the US stock market.

💡International Diversification

International diversification is the strategy of spreading investments across different countries to reduce risk and enhance returns. The video speaker discusses the importance of this strategy, particularly in light of potential changes in the Indian market and the introduction of a long-term capital gains tax. This concept is a key part of the speaker's approach to portfolio management.

💡Election Rally

An election rally refers to a surge in the stock market or other investments around the time of an election, often driven by political stability or policy expectations. The video speaker comments on the historical performance of the stock market during election years, suggesting that it is a favorable time for investment. This concept is used to support the speaker's argument for investing in the current market climate.

💡Value Stocks

Value stocks are shares in companies that appear to be trading for less than their intrinsic value and are considered a good investment opportunity. The video discusses a shift in market trends towards value stocks, as indicated by Warren Buffet's portfolio adjustments. This concept is significant as it informs the speaker's investment strategy and advice.

💡Growth Stocks

Growth stocks are shares in companies that are expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to the market. The video contrasts growth stocks with value stocks, noting a potential short-term correction for growth stocks due to factors like high-interest rates and the AI rally. This distinction is important for understanding the speaker's views on current market dynamics.

💡Global Ship Lease

Global Ship Lease is a company mentioned in the video that operates in the shipping container industry. The speaker considers it a good investment opportunity due to its cyclical nature and potential for growth as trade resumes between the US and China. This example illustrates the speaker's approach to identifying specific stocks with strong potential.

💡Turnaround Stock

A turnaround stock refers to a company's stock that has been underperforming but is expected to recover due to changes in its business or industry. The video describes Global Ship Lease as a potential turnaround stock, highlighting the company's past struggles and current opportunities for improvement. This concept is used to illustrate the speaker's strategy for identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential.

Highlights

The speaker hasn't been discussing the US stock markets much lately but is now building positions due to a perceived pivot in the market.

Elections are approaching, and the speaker believes this could lead to an election rally in the stock market.

Long-term investing is emphasized, highlighting the stability of major US companies like Google, Apple, Amazon, and Meta.

The speaker is diversifying their portfolio internationally, moving 30-40% of investments outside India as a long-term hedge.

An NRI community is being started to share insights on international investing, including markets in Dubai, the US, and Thailand.

The NASDAQ has shown a good run-up, with a midterm perspective already achieved and a long-term technical target of approximately 26,000.

Major tech companies, particularly those in NASDAQ, are viewed as strong long-term investments.

Ultra high net worth individuals are likely to continue investing in US tech stocks, especially those in NASDAQ.

Historical data shows that investing during election years is generally profitable, with a high likelihood of market gains.

Warren Buffet's portfolio indicates a shift, with reductions in Apple stock holdings suggesting a potential correction in growth stocks.

There is a high chance of a short-term correction in growth stocks due to high interest rates and the recent AI rally.

Value stocks, such as Global Ship Lease, are seen as good turnaround opportunities with potential for growth.

Rebounding trade between the US and China could benefit companies like Global Ship Lease.

Election years are historically good times to invest, with data supporting market gains during these periods.

In the short term, there is a greater value in value stocks compared to growth stocks, which might correct.

Transcripts

hi everyone so on this video I'm going

to speak about us stock markets so for

the last few months I haven't been

speaking about the US markets the reason

was that I wasn't buying much in that

market now I feel that the entire

position in the US is set to be pivoted

so I am building a lot of positions now

elections are going to happen so I'm

going to comment on that as well that

what kind of election rally we can

possibly expect and I will give you

stock specific commentary so on that

note let me quickly touch upon the

concept of long-term investing also that

many of us look for companies like 10

years K I'll buy something and I will

just keep on holding my positions so are

like some Indian companies Great from

that front or us companies Great from

that forant see guys I mean there are

good companies in India also good

companies in the US also but from

longevity point of

view 10 years you just keep it and don't

do much I think that these type of

companies are much greater in number in

the US do you really think that Google

Apple Amazon these companies are going

away like in the next 3 4 years no

almost all of us are using these

products on everyday basis meta for

example serves approximately daily

average users there are approximately

one third of the world uses like meta

products on daily basis now that's how

powerful these companies are so

therefore understanding about the US

market is also very very important

second key point that I'm also trying to

diversify my portfolio

internationally 12 a half%

ltcg tax so anything can happen in the

Indian market so all the profits

notional profits that you're seeing can

go away also so on that note it's very

important to internationally diversify

I'm personally doing it I will be moving

30 40% of my portfolio at least outside

India because I see that as a long-term

hedge I'm also starting an NRI community

in case you guys are interested in

joining that if you are outside India

you want to learn more about

International investing how to invest in

Dubai how to invest in US Stocks how to

invest in Thailand these locations I'm

personally going and visiting and

learning more about I'm currently in

Dubai I'll be spending a fairly long

period of time here to understand the

real estate market here I'll share all

those type of insights with you in the

NRI Community the link is there to join

in the description and comment box okay

so very quickly let me quickly touch

upon where NASDAQ currently is there are

two types of indices NASDAQ and S&P 500

in the US okay so

NASDAQ and even on my member Community

had categorically said that sip in

NASDAQ was very very good we bought a

lot here in this Zone and since then uh

ndaq has given very good run up the

reason was you know what this is like a

cup with handle that is getting formed

here so it will go something like this

and so this level has already been

achieved right so this was the midterm

perspective on NASDAQ which has already

been achieved so okay so this was

regarding the midterm now let us look at

the long term so if you consider this

entire pattern right so this is very

good accumulation that has happened on

NASDAQ with handle so if you figure out

the the technical Target of NASDAQ from

here to

here right now if you go and stick this

depth now then the level comes out to be

approximately 26,000 okay and ABI NASDAQ

ABI NASDAQ is somewhere here right so

this is the long-term Target for Nasdaq

there is a 50% clear gain from a

technicals point of view now maybe it

will take like 3 years I don't know but

from a safety point of view this

accumulation of entire NASDAQ in this

Zone is looks to be complete okay

Nares is going to eat up all the jobs e

narrative was there right very good

earning scheme for major tech companies

right so that also happened chips

manufacturing like

NV per I picked up a company called as

smci right in the last one and a half

two years so very very good bet for me

made a lot of money from this right meta

for example I will link the video here

also when I made it there was a lot of

negativity associated with that

because then the stock gave like 150%

plus run up 150% run up it was a clear

like you know lollipop to right I mean

in order to buy this stuff literally

like if you pick good companies at a

discount you're almost given to make

money you understand thing confidently

and make bets and even if you can make

even two such bets literally two such BS

then you know what you will generate

like massive wealth so okay so because

you will say that okay I miss the SMC

rally I miss the Nvidia rally I miss the

meta rally what is it that I can do next

Amazon all that stuff so let me take you

point by point and see guys I mean I get

to speak with a lot of investors I'm

running my hedge fund so I get to speak

with a lot of international investors

they are looking for safety okay now in

the past if you go back like 10 15 years

ago the concept of safety was in bonds

right up

usy that will continue to happen but

there is a very High ultra high net

worth individuals these would be people

more than $30 million in liquid savings

or liquid wealth they where are they

moving right so they are actually they

will continue to invest in US tech

stocks especially NASDAQ oriented

companies nasda B it's like us Tech okay

so it's Tech heavy okay when I'm

speaking about S&P 500 that's like broad

based index in the US right

so Ultra

hnwi these people are going to continue

to invest in big Tech even going in the

future so correction I'll speak about

that but let me give you a very broad

macro view about us

elections so I'll show you like three

four key charts and then I will come

back to stock specific conversation so

this is exactly the type of data that I

will share on my NRI Community also so I

will do a lot of exclusive videos for

them also so in case you someone who

will benefit from International

investing definitely check out that

community so anyways coming back to the

topic if you take a look at this

particular chart what you will notice is

that in non-election years right

non-election years and election years

data made money right and lost money

right so in non-election years 70% of

the time you make money and in election

years almost 83% of the times you make

money so is it good to invest during the

election year the short answer is yes so

election November we can say that year

has started and given this data it

definitely makes sense to invest right

now if we look at the election year

stock market performance as per election

year in 1926 data so I don't think there

is any point in terms of understanding

that but from here if we actually start

looking at then we will see that 16% run

up 23% run up this was 2008 so this was

an anom year right van 16% run up 18%

right this is giving like you know

whatever only 10 and a half dollar

adjustment so dollar

adjustment keeps falling by roughly 4 to

5% a year okay so data this is not B

data right I mean when we are looking at

these type of returns because this we

have to understand in terms of dollars

now the second key data point that I

will show you is that many people try to

overinvestment interesting and what you

will notice is that see if you invested

in the entire time in S&P 500 nasda I'm

talking about S&P 500 okay then you

would have made the most returns but if

you only invested you know what

Republicans you know

market now please don't try to apply the

Indian election brain in the market

knowe

stocket market no don't do all this just

stay invested don't try to swing it

right that's what I'm saying right now

very very good time

November right in the US market not an

issue you have to be stock selective no

doubt about

that but from a macro level there is no

problem in terms of investing in US

Stocks as of now okay so now comes the

next point that okay fine I want to pick

some stocks then what possible options

can there be so number one is

NASDAQ so depending on Your Horizon risk

profile you can consider that

opportunity now this is not an

investment

ADV my job is not to give you investment

advice I'm just sharing my perspective

on things okay so if you take a look at

Google for example right s% roughly

similarly Amazon had been crushed a

little bit so

%% correction is happening in these type

of stocks on top of that if you look at

some big players portfolios War buff

portfolio what you will notice is that

from the quarter of

2023 he has maintained his positions in

the market he has not increased

it from the last quarter he was sitting

on how much 351 billion 331 billion SO2

billion and where has he cut his

position so for example you will see

that Apple stock you can see that he has

actually sold almost 13% of his holding

on Apple stock so what does this mean to

me as an investor and what is it that I

am reading from this so at a macro level

that there are two primary type of

stocks that are there in the US so one

are called as value stocks right and the

second are called as growth stocks right

so US market is f right the money

rotates from value stocks to growth

stocks and from growth stocks to value

stocks right now growth stocks examples

so these would be M7 companies the

Magnificent s

Google Netflix all these companies and

value stocks these are like your

consistent stocks like GM shipping

companies all that stuff so these will

be your value

stocks this is a very interesting data

point community so dat so what you will

notice is that this compares the 23 year

performance of 500 value versus growth

stocks right what you will notice is

that this orange line is value right

this blue uh line is growth stocks just

for example this entire phase right from

2010 to to almost like 2020 right this

was growth

phase met

Netflix

okay now what is happening that here

value stocks have started to rise right

and growth stocks Warren Buffet G is

cutting his positions you

know all

this example if you take a look at Apple

Computers what you will notice is that

it is almost at its alltime high in fact

it is still at its alltime high so

correction there is very good chance of

Correction now why is that the case

right the first key reason for that is

that there has been a massive AI rally

in the tech stocks now apple is not

necessarily playing the AI rally game uh

but other m7s they are heavily involved

for example Microsoft Google they are

betting a lot on AI okay second key

point is that interest rates are still

very high interest rates have not been

cut interest rate cuts that is when

these companies collect a lot of debt

right and they increase their debt

positions and throw a lot of money on

R&D which eventually kind of rallies the

market right so this game is still like

good 3 to 6 months away so from an

immediate short-term perspective there

is a very high chance of Correction on

these stocks whereas there is more value

well there is more value in value stocks

okay to consistent type stocks so one

stock where I'm looking quite heavily

into is called as a global ship lease so

let me do a very quick commentary here

so basically as the name suggests they

run like shipping containers okay so

whenever there is increase of trade and

more import exports coming to and from

us this increases China is rebounding

now there will be a lot of resumption of

trade between us and China and these

type of companies can benefit a lot

please note this is a highly cyclical

business right so this was when the US

China trade war broke out in 2016 this

company suffered a lot right

andb and now it is going sideways so

this is a very good turnaround stock as

per my understanding I will be building

some positions in this again this is not

a stock recommendation whatever you feel

like doing please do I'm just sharing

you my understanding of the entire thing

okay so whenever there is rebound in

China Chinese stocks not great

investment opportunity to be honest it's

very opaque right but these type of

China proxy play are much better in my

understanding for us as International

investors this is what I will teach you

right even on my n community tax tax

residencies how to ensure tax saving all

that stuff I will teach you through my

NRA Community also but these insightful

points is what you need to know in order

to do well in the stock market so

anyways uh coming to the topic that I

feel that this is a very good company

from that angle this is a example of a

value stock if I show you the financials

also you will see all green numbers

okay Oro right so this is in a very

strong rebound from that perspective and

I'll definitely be building some

positions on it so anyways quickly

summarizing number one NASDAQ is very

good from an SIV point of view right now

it is likely to give a breakout in the

next one OD year we can see a good rally

if the entire Market sort of Supports

number two key point is that election

years are good to invest and by no data

tells us that it is to invest so we

should definitely take advantage of that

number three we should not keep on

waiting right you

know no okay number four point there in

the short term there is a chance that

the growth stocks might correct

shortterm basis longm no problem in the

short term value stocks is where the

value truly lies so please identify more

I will also give you more commentary on

value stocks going forward I hope you

enjoyed this insightful conversation if

you did do press the like button and

subscribe to the channel and I'll see

you soon