Sam Altmans UBI Study Is DONE! The Data is In...

Summary

Tech leaders like Sam Altman and Elon Musk advocate for Universal Basic Income (UBI) as technology automates jobs. A 2022 study showed UBI recipients spent on essentials, not vices, and worked slightly less, with no negative impact on the economy. Altman warns that without adapting public policy, most people could be worse off due to AI-driven unemployment, suggesting UBI as a necessary policy to support those affected by technological advancements.

Takeaways

• 🤖 Tech leaders like Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Jack Dorsey support Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution to job displacement caused by automation.
• 🔮 Altman predicted in 2016 that new technology would eliminate traditional jobs and create wealth, leading to a national-scale implementation of UBI in the future.
• 📚 Open research pilot studies in Illinois and Texas provided low-income participants with a monthly UBI of $1,000, with a control group receiving $50, to study the effects of UBI.
• 🏠 Beneficiaries of the UBI pilot study used the funds for essentials like food, rent, and transportation, debunking the myth that UBI would be spent on vices.
• 💰 The study showed that UBI recipients experienced reduced stress and increased savings, highlighting the potential benefits of UBI on personal well-being.
• 📉 Labor participation declined by 2%, which equates to about eight fewer workers annually, suggesting that some individuals chose to work less with the financial security of UBI.
• 🤔 The Vox article discussed the potential confusion in interpreting the data from UBI studies, emphasizing that individual outcomes can vary widely.
• 💡 The case for UBI should be insulated from the volatility of AI and not solely based on the fear of AI-driven unemployment, according to the Vox article.
• 🌐 Altman and other tech figures, including AI pioneer Jeffrey Hinton, believe that AI will cause technological unemployment and that UBI will be necessary.
• 🚫 The argument against tying UBI to rapid AI progress is that if AI does not lead to significant job loss, support for UBI could wane.
• 🇩🇪 Germany's laws requiring companies to notify work councils about AI adoption is an example of proactive policy management in the face of technological change.

Q & A

What is Sam Altman's view on Universal Basic Income (UBI) and its relation to technological advancements?

Sam Altman believes that as new technology continues to eliminate traditional jobs and massive new wealth gets created, some version of UBI will likely be implemented at a national scale in the future.

What was the purpose of the open research pilot study on UBI that began in 2020?

The study aimed to observe the effects of providing low-income participants from various areas with a monthly stipend of $1,000, and to understand how unconditional payments might impact individuals in the future with increased automation.

What were the average household incomes of the participants in the UBI study?

On average, the household incomes of the participants were under $29,000, with all beneficiaries at or under 300% of the federal poverty line.

How long was the UBI study mentioned in the script, and why is its length significant?

The study was conducted over three years, making it one of the longest UBI studies, which is significant for understanding long-term effects of UBI on individuals and society.

What did the researchers find regarding how participants used the UBI funds?

The researchers found that participants used the funds to buy essentials like food, rent, and transportation, rather than vices, debunking the myth that UBI recipients would spend the money recklessly.

How did the UBI study impact labor participation among the participants?

Labor participation declined by 2%, which equates to about eight fewer workers annually. However, this reduction was not uniform and varied among individuals based on their personal circumstances.

What is the argument made by the Vox article regarding the case for basic income and AI?

The Vox article suggests that the case for basic income should not be solely based on the fear of rapid AI progress, as it could make the support for UBI more vulnerable if AI does not lead to significant job displacement.

What is the potential risk of linking the necessity of UBI to the progress of AI, according to the script?

The risk is that if AI does not cause a 'Great Wave' of unemployment as feared, the support for UBI might fall, as it would be seen as less necessary.

What is the role of work councils in Germany regarding the adoption of AI and other new technologies?

In Germany, companies are required by law to notify their work councils about AI and other new technologies they plan to adopt. Work councils are management committees that discuss various aspects of work, including the effects of AI.

What tool did the speaker create to help individuals understand the impact of AI on different jobs?

The speaker created a database listing over 170 different jobs that are impacted by AI, including the industry, susceptibility to AI, the AI tools affecting it, and links to those tools.

What is the speaker's stance on the necessity of UBI in the face of increasing AI capabilities?

The speaker believes that as technology becomes more capable, there will be a need for programs to help those affected by AI, suggesting that UBI might be one such program.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 Automation and the Future of UBI

This paragraph discusses the potential impact of technology, particularly automation, on traditional jobs and the role of Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution. Tech leaders like Sam Alman, Elon Musk, and Jack Dorsey are noted as proponents of UBI. Sam Alman's 2016 statement is highlighted, predicting a future where technology eliminates jobs and creates wealth, necessitating UBI. The Open Research pilot study in Illinois and Texas, where low-income participants received $1,000 a month, is mentioned as one of the longest UBI studies. The study's results show that participants used the funds for essentials like food, rent, and transportation, rather than vices, contradicting common misconceptions about UBI. The study also found a slight decrease in labor participation, but the overall effect was mixed, with some individuals finding better work and others reducing work hours for personal reasons.

05:00

💼 Economic Disparity and the Need for Basic Income

This paragraph delves into the economic disparity created by rapid technological advancements, particularly AI, and the potential need for UBI. It emphasizes that discussions about UBI should not be solely based on the fear of AI-driven unemployment but should be considered as a necessary policy to address poverty and inequality. The paragraph references a Vox article that argues for decoupling the case for UBI from the volatility of AI, suggesting that UBI should be implemented regardless of AI's impact. The article also mentions that despite tech funding, AI is not mentioned in UBI studies, indicating a broader need for UBI beyond just AI. The paragraph concludes by discussing the potential effects of AI on jobs and the economy, and the importance of preparing for these changes through policies like UBI. It also mentions a database created by the speaker that lists over 170 jobs impacted by AI, providing a resource for understanding the current state of AI's impact on the workforce.

Keywords

💡Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Universal Basic Income, or UBI, is a concept where every citizen receives a set amount of money from the government or another public entity, regardless of their employment status or income level. It is a central theme in the video, which discusses the potential necessity of UBI as a response to job displacement caused by technological automation. The script mentions tech leaders like Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey supporting UBI, and it refers to a study where participants received $1,000 a month, illustrating UBI in practice.

💡Automation

Automation refers to the use of technology to perform tasks that were previously done by humans. In the context of the video, automation is a driving force behind the potential need for UBI, as it is seen as a factor that could eliminate traditional jobs. The script discusses how new technology continues to create wealth while simultaneously threatening jobs, highlighting the dichotomy between technological advancement and its impact on employment.

💡Tech Leaders

The term 'Tech Leaders' in the script refers to influential figures in the technology industry, such as Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey, who advocate for UBI. These individuals are significant because their support lends credibility to the idea of UBI as a solution to the challenges posed by technological unemployment. The script positions them as proponents of UBI, suggesting their belief in its necessity in the face of automation.

💡Pilot Study

A pilot study is a small-scale preliminary trial of a project or research that tests the feasibility of a larger project. In the script, the pilot study refers to an open research initiative where low-income participants received a monthly UBI payment. This study is highlighted as one of the longest UBI studies conducted, providing valuable data on the effects of UBI on recipients' lives and their use of the funds.

💡Federal Poverty Line

The federal poverty line is a measure used by the U.S. government to determine the minimum income level at which a family is considered to be living in poverty. In the script, it is mentioned that the UBI pilot study included participants who were at or under 300% of the federal poverty line, indicating that the study focused on those in or near poverty and how UBI might impact their financial situation.

💡Stress Levels

Stress levels refer to the degree of mental, emotional, or physical strain or tension that a person experiences. The script suggests that one of the benefits of UBI is the reduction of stress levels among recipients, as having a guaranteed income can alleviate financial worries and provide a sense of security.

💡Labor Participation

Labor participation, or labor force participation, is the ratio of the number of people available and willing to work to the total population. The script notes a 2% decline in labor participation among UBI recipients, which equates to fewer workers annually. This is a key point of debate in the UBI discussion, as it raises questions about the potential impact of UBI on work incentives.

💡AI Bubbles

An AI bubble refers to a speculative surge in the value of artificial intelligence technologies, potentially followed by a crash if the technologies do not live up to expectations. The script discusses the idea of insulating the case for UBI from the volatility of AI bubbles, suggesting that the need for UBI should not be solely based on the fear of AI-induced unemployment but rather on broader economic and social considerations.

💡Post-AGI Economics

Post-AGI economics refers to the economic landscape after the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which is AI that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at least as well as a human being. The script mentions a database created by the speaker that lists jobs likely to be impacted by AI, indicating a concern for the future of work in a post-AGI world and the need for preparedness.

💡Work Councils

Work councils are representative bodies in certain countries, such as Germany, that involve employees in decision-making processes within a company, including matters related to new technologies. The script mentions German laws requiring companies to notify their work councils about AI adoption, illustrating a proactive approach to managing the impact of AI on the workforce.

Highlights

Tech leaders like Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey support Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution to job displacement caused by automation.

Sam Altman's 2016 statement predicts the necessity of UBI on a national scale due to job elimination and wealth creation by new technology.

A study from open research began in 2020, providing $1,000 a month to low-income participants, with a control group receiving $50 for participation.

The study is one of the longest UBI studies conducted, important for understanding the long-term effects of UBI on society.

Participants used UBI funds for essentials like food, rent, and transportation, debunking myths about spending on vices.

UBI recipients experienced reduced stress levels and increased savings, contrary to fears of reckless spending.

Labor participation declined by 2%, but this varied as individuals found better work or chose to spend more time with family.

Vox news commentary suggests that the data from UBI studies can be misinterpreted, emphasizing the need for careful analysis.

Altman warns in 2021 that without policy adaptation, most people will end up worse off due to AI and automation.

Major tech figures, including Elon Musk and Jeffrey Hinton, believe AI will cause technological unemployment, making UBI necessary.

The case for UBI should not be solely based on fears of rapid AI progress, as it could be vulnerable if AI does not lead to mass unemployment.

Germany has laws requiring companies to inform work councils about AI adoption, indicating proactive management of AI's impact on jobs.

A database of over 170 jobs impacted by AI has been created to help individuals understand and prepare for the effects of automation.

The database includes industry, susceptibility to AI, affected AI tools, and provides links to these tools for further exploration.

The creation of the database aims to provide practical support for individuals to navigate the changing job landscape due to AI.

The video encourages viewers to join the post-AGI preparedness community for daily updates on AI's impact on various jobs.

The video concludes by inviting viewers to share their thoughts on UBI and its potential role in a future shaped by AI and automation.

Transcripts

so Sam Alman is of course among several

Tech leaders like Elon Musk Jack dorsy

who have been proponent of Ubi as a

potential antidote to the ne to the

negative effects of Technology

automating people's occupations now we

actually do have a statement from Sam

mman in 2016 and he wrote something that

still Echoes true today he said I'm

fairly confident that it's some point in

the future as new technology continues

to eliminate traditional jobs and

massive New Wealth gets created we're

going to see some version of this at a

national scale so essentially what he's

stating there is that yes while these

initial experiments with you know maybe

just a 100 people or a thousand people

in these small select environments we're

most likely going to have to see some

level of this in the future as

technology continues to automate a way

traditional role now we do actually have

the data from the study from open

research and the open research pilot

actually began in 202 when a, low-income

participants from rural suburban and

urban areas in Illinois and Texas

started receiving $1,000 a month 2,000

others also received $50 a month to

participate in the study as a control

group and every beneficiary was at or

under 300% of the federal poverty line

but on average their household incomes

were under

$29,000 so essentially what we can see

here is the fact that we we have a study

that was conducted with just a thousand

people but what most people don't

understand about this study is that this

study was actually one of the longest

Ubi studies conducted I think it

actually is the longest Ubi study

conducted which is important for the

research because what people actually

want to do is they actually want to

realize exactly how in the future once

automation is here once many roles do

disappear what humans are actually going

to do and what the kind of effect are of

giving people unconditional payments now

traditionally some of the things that

most people did actually realize were

the things like you know reduced stress

levels and increasing levels of your

savings and I think some of the results

here are also pretty interesting but

they also actually show us exactly what

we suspected so essentially the

researchers first set of results are

based on three years of payments and

they found that participants use the

funds to buy Essentials like food rent

and transportation

and not vices the reason I've

highlighted that part is because one of

the things that some people who are anti

Ubi essentially just State and this is

really incorrectly they state that many

people who actually are going to be

receiving those payments are actually

just going to spend them on drugs and

other things that they don't need now of

course this is completely false this is

something that just isn't true but this

is something that people have said and I

think time and time again what we're

seeing from these studies is that the

data shows us that when people are in

positions where they don't have enough

money as soon as they start to get some

Universal basic income they do not spend

that money recklessly that is something

that most people do need to take into

account when thinking about this and of

course this is good for the space

because it means that in the future

governments are more likely to be

proponents of this policy because it

shows that it has been effective now

some other things that they spoke about

was that this study actually showed the

recipient spent more on housing food and

carent expenses but they worked slightly

less now labor participation did decline

by 2% equating to about eight fewer

workers annually and I know that some

people did think that okay some people

did stop working but there was actually

also this by Vox news where they

actually spoke about how look the data

can sometimes be confusing and sometimes

it might not make sense but that doesn't

mean that the data is false so what we

have here is you can see that it says

that while one person might wind up

finding better work and taking on more

hours thanks to the cash while another

person might scale back their hours to

spend more time with their kids both

cases can be good outcomes to the

individuals involved but as an average

treatment effect where one person worked

a lot more and another person worked a

lot less it kind of all averages out

that's why while some people just look

at it and think you know all these

people are going to become lazy and

dependent on that that's often usually

not what we see from these studies and

time and time again this is what the

data is showing now one of the

interesting things that I actually did

see was from this Vox article where they

actually spoke about how that we should

insulate the case for basic income from

any potential AI Bubbles and I think

this is an interesting concept because

it dives into the topic of wi Society

without Automation and it kind of you

know I wouldn't say it's an attack on

capitalism but it kind of poses the

question that that basically is you know

is capitalism to extreme considering the

fact that we now have technology which

has sort of put capitalism sort of this

hyperdrive reality where you've got

people that are extremely rich with

billions and billions of dollars and you

got people that literally don't have any

money at all so you can see right here

it says despite receiving funding from

much of the tech world where the talk of

AI is everywhere none of the papers

published from the unconditional income

study mentioned AI at all and that's a

good thing because as I mentioned

earlier we should insulate the case for

basic income from the volatility and the

unknowns of AI basically what I think

they're saying here is that look AI is a

technology that yes it might automate

people away but I think that we should

have basic income anyways that's

basically what the article is saying

because it's stating that look we

shouldn't wait for AI to be something

that automates everyone before we start

to realize that look maybe just maybe we

might need some kind of basic income to

help those who are on the poverty line

which I think is a rather interesting

comment and I'd love to know your

thoughts down below and you can see here

that this article you know dives into

some increasingly worrying things of

course Alman wrote in 2021 one that if

public policy doesn't adapt accordingly

most people will end up worse off than

they are today this is something that he

wrote in 2021 it's going to be part of a

longer video that I talk about but this

is you know quite true if most people as

they are now you know most people are

going to be worse off because there's

going to be less demand for certain jobs

and there's going to be more AI in the

world which could potentially take those

jobs whilst yes that doesn't cover the

entire economic landscape and how the

economy works that is just the basis of

it and of course it says here for years

Alman has been publicly worrying about

that basic income will become necessary

as AI eliminates traditional jobs while

creating huge stockpiles of cash held by

the few now of course it says here Alman

is not alone many major figures in the

tech World from Elon Musk to The

Godfather of AI to The Godfather of AI

Jeffrey Hinton believe that AI will

Usher a wave of technological

unemployment which is quite terrifying

to say the least and that basic income

will be necessary to keep us all afloat

and the article finishes by state that

you know that this person is quite

conflicted and I think this one right

here is a really important point they

say that but hitching the case for basic

income to the fears of Rapid AI progress

makes it far more vulnerable than it

needs to be if there's no Great Wave of

AI driven unemployment if the bubble of

AI actually bursts and turned out to be

hardly different than any other cycle of

innovation and technological

unemployment in the past the support for

basic income would fall too so basically

saying that look if a turns out to be

this hyp bubble that it might be then it

looks like we're not truly going to get

the support for basic income that you so

desperately need now I do think that

this is a rather important thing to talk

about because of course there does need

to be support for this but I do think

that as technology becomes increasingly

more capable there will certainly be

some programs to help those who have

been affected by AI one of the things

that I do wonder if it's going to become

more popular is the fact that Germany

actually has laws requiring companies to

notify their Works counsels about Ai and

other new technologies that they're

planning to adopt most German companies

have work councils which are work and

management committees that discuss

everything from vacation schedules to

the pace of work and the effects of AI

so it seems that certain societies and

certain policies can affect how this

transformative period is actively

managed now because there has been so

many different AI tools released and

because there are so many different jobs

that are going to be impacted by AI I

created this database of over currently

170 different jobs that are going to be

impacted by Ai and I left a link to the

actual tool that is going to impact that

career I created this for my post AGI

economics Community I update this every

single day every time I see an actually

effective tool that you can use in

certain industries and there are just so

many that I think this is something that

could genuinely help you so if you feel

like this is something that you want to

see and something that could help you

out don't forget to check this out by

clicking the link below and joining the

post AGI preparedness Community this is

pretty useful because it allows you to

see all of the different areas of the

economy SL jobs that are currently being

affected by different AI tools this

isn't really speculative I wanted it to

be based on different tools that are

actually affecting work today so it's

got the industry it's got susceptibility

to AI all of the AI tools that actually

affect it and of course the notes and of

course the link to the tools and if you

did enjoy today's video hopefully you

did find some value in this and let me

know your thoughts about Ubbi and the

future to come and I'll see you guys in

the next video