The 2024 Stock Market Crash Just Started
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses a recent market drop, debunking mainstream media's exaggerated panic. The speaker, a former financial professional, emphasizes the normalcy of market corrections and encourages long-term investing. He criticizes the media for inducing fear and highlights how smart investors can capitalize on market corrections. He also shares his personal investment success and advises viewers to use data, not emotions, in decision-making. The video aims to provide a contrarian perspective, urging viewers to stay calm and seize investment opportunities during market downturns.
Takeaways
- π The speaker started on YouTube after a successful career in finance, aiming to share insights and counteract misinformation in financial media.
- π The recent market drop felt more painful than usual due to significant single-day declines in major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
- π Despite the recent correction, the speaker emphasizes that market corrections are normal and smart investors can use them to make money.
- π’ Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has been profitable 96% of the time over any 10-year period in the past 100 years, suggesting long-term investment potential.
- π‘ The speaker's portfolio, consisting of 40% S&P 500, 40% Tesla, and 20% other stocks, has seen a 160% increase in the past 18 months, demonstrating the potential of a diversified approach.
- π The speaker highlights the importance of not getting caught up in emotional trading and instead focusing on a long-term investment strategy.
- π° The speaker suggests that market pullbacks present opportunities for long-term investors to dollar-cost average into positions or open new ones at lower prices.
- π« The speaker warns against buying into parabolic spikes and advises waiting for weakness before opening positions, using the example of SMCI's stock price movements.
- π The speaker provides a detailed analysis of CrowdStrike, arguing that despite recent setbacks, the company remains a strong investment due to its market dominance and financial performance.
- π¬ The speaker criticizes mainstream financial media for creating panic and pushing Wall Street's agenda, encouraging viewers to look beyond the fear and focus on facts and data.
Q & A
What was the main event that caused a lot of pain and panic in the financial markets?
-The main event was a market correction, which is a decline in the stock market. This particular correction was felt more painfully than usual due to the significant drops in various stocks and indices.
Why did the speaker start a YouTube channel?
-The speaker started a YouTube channel because he was burned out from his job in financial institutions and wanted to do something fun as a side project. He was also financially comfortable, so he didn't need a job but was looking for a new challenge.
What is the speaker's background and how does it relate to his perspective on financial media?
-The speaker is an immigrant who studied at the University of Michigan and worked as a senior manager for a financial institution. His background gives him a unique perspective on the financial system, and he uses this to critique the mainstream financial media for their sensationalism and fear-mongering.
What is the speaker's view on the role of mainstream media in the financial markets?
-The speaker believes that mainstream media is in cahoots with Wall Street, creating panic during stock drops to generate clicks and revenue. He suggests that this media manipulation pushes the agenda of Wall Street, encouraging investors to buy high and sell low.
What is the definition of a market correction according to the speaker?
-A market correction is typically defined as a 10% drop in the market. The speaker points out that the recent 3.2% drop in the S&P 500 is not a correction, emphasizing that corrections are more common than people think.
How does the speaker describe the impact of the recent market correction on his portfolio?
-Despite the market correction, the speaker's portfolio has performed well, being up 160% from January 2023 to the time of the video. He attributes this to his strategy of investing in a mix of the S&P 500, Tesla, and other stocks.
What is the speaker's advice for investors during a market correction?
-The speaker advises investors to use market corrections as an opportunity to make money. He suggests that smart investors can buy stocks at lower prices during corrections, and he emphasizes the importance of having a plan and not reacting emotionally to market fluctuations.
What is the significance of the speaker's mention of 'SMCI' stock?
-SMCI is an example the speaker uses to illustrate his investment strategy. He bought the stock when it was undervalued and warned viewers when it reached a peak, advising them to be cautious and consider taking profits. The recent correction has brought the stock price down, making it potentially attractive again for investors.
How does the speaker view the current market situation for long-term investors?
-The speaker views the current market situation as a great opportunity for long-term investors. He suggests that the market pullback allows investors to dollar-cost average into stocks and open new positions at lower prices, emphasizing that this is not the time to panic but to take advantage of the situation.
What is the speaker's opinion on the role of emotions in investing?
-The speaker strongly advises against letting emotions drive investment decisions. He emphasizes the need for a plan and a clear understanding of investment goals to avoid making rash decisions based on market volatility.
Outlines
π² Market Correction and Investment Opportunity
The speaker begins by addressing the market's recent downturn, which felt more painful than usual, and suggests that this could be a significant opportunity for smart investors. They share a personal story about their journey from being an immigrant kid to working in a high-level financial institution, and later starting a YouTube channel. The speaker criticizes mainstream financial media for inciting panic and fear, which they argue is counterproductive for investors. They promise to provide a contrarian perspective to the mainstream narrative, aiming to help viewers make informed decisions rather than succumbing to emotional reactions.
π Understanding Market Corrections and Historical Data
The speaker clarifies what a market correction is, noting that the recent drop in the S&P 500 does not yet qualify as one, and uses historical data to show that corrections are common and can be opportunities for smart investors. They discuss the performance of various stocks and indices, emphasizing that despite the recent pullback, the long-term trend has been positive. The speaker also highlights the importance of not relying on emotions or gut feelings when investing, and instead focusing on historical patterns and data.
π Profiting from Market Volatility
The speaker shares their own portfolio's performance, which has seen significant gains despite the market's recent volatility. They discuss the performance of nine stocks they have covered, all of which have provided positive returns. The speaker uses the example of a specific stock, SMCI, to illustrate the importance of not buying into a parabolic spike and waiting for market weakness to open positions. They caution against mistaking a company for another with stronger market protection and emphasize the risks associated with such investments.
π Long-Term Investing Amidst Market Turmoil
The speaker contrasts the current market situation for traders and long-term investors, suggesting that while it may be a challenging time for traders, it presents an excellent opportunity for long-term investors to dollar-cost average into positions or reduce the cost of existing ones. They highlight several stocks that have become cheaper due to the market downturn and discuss the potential for profit in such scenarios. The speaker also provides a detailed analysis of CrowdStrike, a company that has faced recent challenges but remains fundamentally strong, offering a potential investment opportunity.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Market Correction
π‘Financial Media
π‘Investment Banking
π‘
π‘Portfolio
π‘Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)
π‘Wall Street
π‘NASDAQ
π‘S&P 500
π‘Sentiment
π‘CrowdStrike
π‘Long-Term Investor
Highlights
The speaker discusses the recent market correction and its emotional impact on investors.
The speaker shares his personal story of starting on YouTube and his background in finance.
The speaker criticizes mainstream financial media for creating panic and fear among investors.
The speaker argues that the recent market drop is not a correction but a temporary pullback.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of using market corrections as an opportunity to make money.
The speaker provides historical data on the S&P 500 showing that 96% of 10-year periods were profitable.
The speaker explains the significance of the best days in the market and how they can affect long-term returns.
The speaker discusses the emotional pain felt by investors during the recent market drop and why it felt more intense.
The speaker advises investors to use facts over emotions when making investment decisions.
The speaker shares his portfolio performance and the stocks he has covered, highlighting their positive returns.
The speaker warns against buying into parabolic spikes and advises waiting for weakness to open positions.
The speaker discusses the potential of the stock SMCI and its risks, advising caution and a wait-and-see approach.
The speaker explains how to take advantage of market dips by dollar-cost averaging into stocks like SMCI.
The speaker differentiates between the strategies of traders and long-term investors during market corrections.
The speaker highlights the stock CrowdStrike as an example of a company that is significantly undervalued despite recent setbacks.
The speaker provides a price target for CrowdStrike based on a five-year model, suggesting significant potential for growth.
Transcripts
so what in the world happened yesterday
what was that why it felt so painful
more than we used to in red days but
more importantly how this collapse we've
seen yesterday can lead to a massive
opportunity to make a lot of money for
smart investors so before we go through
that I would like to take five seconds
of your time to talk about something
personal you know a story about how I
started on YouTube and by the end of
this story you'll see how it connects to
what I'm talking about here now some of
you know this some of you may not know
this but you know as an immigrant kid I
came to the US and never imagined of
reaching the highs I've reached which is
working for a financial institution of
the highest degree you know a degree
from the University of Michigan one of
the best schools in the world working
for 10 years as a senior manager for
theoy I mean I had a terrific
opportunity to experience the financial
system up close and for a Russian kid
that was incredible and when I got
burned out and I knew I was burned out I
was already financially comfortable you
know I was smart my money I'm not a huge
spender I had plenty for my lifestyle I
had enough so I didn't really need a job
but I decided to do YouTube because it
seemed like fun like a side project it
was Co I was bored and I dove into the
world of financial online
media and I was shocked look look I
thought I was surrounded by sharks and
nasty people when I worked in Investment
Banking when I work for deoy I thought I
saw some backstabbing some craziness but
this is absolutely nothing compares to
what Financial mainstream media and
Financial social media is doing to its
own
viewers this whole thing dwarves
whatever I've seen in the actual
financial
industry by eons look a lot me to
explain this what we've seen yesterday
is a correction and Corrections happen
all the time we'll talk about that in a
second but the level of insanity that
mainstream media has drawn from this the
level of fear Panic the level of
anxiousness the oh my God the world is
ending YouTube videos from Financial
influencers this has gone to a whole new
level and I'm going to step in here and
use the same tactics they use the
clickbait to get you to watch a video
that contradicts everything you hear
about this so yes this video is titled
probably something like the world is
ending 2024 I get it because otherwise
you don't click but now that I got you
here please listen because I'm about to
say something that is completely
contrarian to everything you hear on
mainstream media and social media I'm
going to save some people from
horrendous horrible decisions out of
emotional anxiousness and I'm going to
do that by explaining what happened why
it feel feels worse than it really is
and how you can use that to make money
so I'm going to do my good to counteract
the BS you're seeing on YouTube and Min
stream media right now so let's talk
about it now what I do on this channel
ultimately is help everyday people like
you like me you know I'm not different
than you to get to financial success
through
investing now the problem here is that
there's a lot of emotional
distractions that interfere with that
goal I have and my goal is for all of
you to make money but you have to
understand that there's a lot of sharks
in the water on the one hand Wall Street
wants you to panic and they want you to
get excited they want you to buy at the
top and they want you to sell at the
bottom and they want to keep doing it
every time so they can make money so
they can have their Porsches and the
Ferrari and in the
Lambos now look I don't drive a Porsche
not Ferrari not Lambo I drive a
5-year-old beat up car and I'm happy
with it I'm don't need that but they are
there to get you for them your pigs pigs
being led to the slaughter and they are
the Wolves and the main culprit to what
they're doing and it's important to
understand that is mainstream media
mainstream media is in full Cahoots with
those people not officially I mean they
don't have a deal to screw you over but
there's a clear understanding that what
mainstream media does is create panic
when stocks drop so they can get clicks
and add Revenue money and attention
that way pushing the agenda of Wall
Street to buy cheap and when the stocks
hit the top they push Euphoria again for
you to click they make the ad Revenue
Wall Street Sals and they repeat that
cycle every few years there's new people
that join the market every few years and
they do it to them again new suckers new
victims now I'm going to counteract this
whole thing with one simple video and
today it's going to be very very simple
now look unlike this media noise you're
hearing right now unlike the end of the
world YouTube thumbnails which actually
have end of the world YouTube videos not
like my
clickbait the YouTube oh my God this is
the apocalypse this is over and all this
crap this is a market correction a
market correction is way more common
than you think and smart investors use
Market corrections to make money and
after this video is over you probably
will be able to do the same should you
choose to do so so over the past week we
have seen the S&P 500 drop 3.2% you know
Tesla is down 14% crowd strike is down
almost
30% we got tsmc down 9% Google down 5%
Nvidia is down 6% paler my love is down
6.5% so the markets are currently on the
pullback on a correction now allow me to
explain a 3.2% drop in the S&P 500 is
not even the definition of a correction
a correction is a 10% correction that
happens every other year according to
the statistics we have in front of us in
the past 20 years half the time 10 out
of 20 years had a 10% correction on the
S&P 500 so every other year the S&P 500
drops 10% it's normal now what's not
normal is that didn't happen since 2022
not in 2023 and not this year we still
didn't have a 10% correction so what's
the outlier here is not the correction
is the fact that it took 18
months and we still don't have it we
still are only on a 3.2% correction
right now even if you measure from the
peak to the Troth and you go and you
measured it and I'm going to show it
right now let's measure from the peak to
the Troth so S&P 500 at the peak right
was
at 500
67 right that's on my notes July 16
that's the peak right now we're 4500
that's a 4% drop even if you go and you
stretch it out and you mag pck to tro
not the last week it's down 4% so we're
not even in correction territory yet so
this is nothing I know some of you have
joined the market over the past six
months and you think this is a
correction it's not now the other thing
I want to show you here is history and
data not emotions and gut feelings when
you have gut feelings go to the toilet
look the S&P 500 over the past 96 years
until the end of 2023 let's use the end
of 2023 as a cut off date so we're not
going to do this mid year right so if
you measure 10 years in those 100 years
from whatever point you want so 10 year
increments after one year after two
years after three years after four years
in an 100y year era well 96 to be honest
so there's a lot of 10year periods in
those 100 years you know the crazy part
about it 96 % of the time those 10e
periods wherever you place them on the
100e Spectrum 96% of the time you will
have a profitable year in the S&P 500
96% of the time a decade inside the S&P
500 for the past 100 years is positive
now you can debate all you want about
the index funds being dangerous but a
96% on a 10-year investment is not a
dangerous thing you can't tell me
that now the average S&P 500 return for
the past 20 years is 99.5% which is
normal we all know this by Heart Right
10% S&P 500 fine but if I take out the
best 10 days for the past 20 years so
basically I remove 10 days in 20 years
the best 10 days I pick and choose and I
remove them that return drops from
99.5% to
5.3% by removing only 10 days in which
you're not going to be in the market for
whatever reason your return drops from
9.5 to 5.3 by half Eddie I want half
Eddie half 10 days and 20 years the
crazier part if I remove 20 days if I
remove on average a day per year and I
just choose the best days that return
drops from 99.5% to
2.6% if I remov 30 days the 30 best days
in 20 years you made
4% in 20 years congratulations but why
did yesterday felt harder and more
painful than regular red days we've seen
over the past few months because we did
have red days right but this one felt
extra why well number one the S&P 500
dropped 2% on a single day that hasn't
happened since February of 2023 number
two the NASDAQ dropped by 4.6% on a
single day which is very painful and if
you measure Peak to Troth July 10th
which was the peak for the NASDAQ was
500 we're down 8% from that that is very
painful now the max 7 dropped
5.6% it's a lot that doesn't happen a
lot the last time these stocks dropped
more than 5% in a single day was in 2022
a long time ago before that 2020 this is
not a common thing so we did have a
strong correction 100% 100% so now the
question is what should you do we
understand what happened we understand
why it felt way more painful than the
usual common red day but what do you do
now how do you make money off of this
well let's use facts over emotions shall
we okay so look at my portfolio from
January of 2023 until yesterday I was up
160% 160% my portfolio is extremely
simple penter 40% % S&P 500 40% Tesla
20% I was up 160% on my portfolio in 18
months now if you look at the videos
I've done on the channel since January
of 2023 until now in the past 18 months
I have covered nine stocks all of which
got a bullish rating for me now those
nine stocks are Google Tesla paler crowd
strike bung Sofi AET smci and Nvidia all
of these stocks were green all of these
stocks were green not a single one was
in the red the average return was
123% so not as good as my portfolio but
123% in 18 months that's some good
content right there even the S&P 500 on
its own did 41% in 18
months the NASDAQ did even better 80% as
of January 2023 so if you you measure
this on a monthly basis over the past 18
months the S&P 500 gave you 2.2% per
month Non-Stop and the nasda gave you 4%
per month non-stop that is literally
double than the normal for a year and a
half straight
non-stop now do you think that lasts
forever do you think this can continue
into eternity without Corrections
without pullbacks I mean the market
doesn't work like that if you joined six
months ago it sure seems like it but
it's not how things work if you have 18
months of insanity it's going to end up
with a correction with the pullback it's
healthy it's normal it happens all the
time now look at a stock like smci and
this is the point where I want to make
here that you should watch these videos
I make them for fun but they have a lot
of value look when I spoke about smci
for the first time back in August of
2023 and I said look this stock at
$253 is insanely undervalued in fact the
title of the video was I'm buying this
over
Nvidia now obviously I wasn't wrong so
the stock climbed all the way to $1,200
from
$253 that's
374 per in 6 months of profit now what
did you do with this profit now once you
do 374 in 6 months it's kind of obvious
that you are in a parabolic euphoric
Spike and it's not going to going to
last forever that is why in March of
2024 at about $1,000 per share not at
the top I don't TI the market but when
this thing hit $1,000 which is four
times more than my initial video I was
like guys this thing ran its course I
literally posted a video in March of
2024 go back and check me saying hey is
it a good idea to buy smci at $1,000 and
in that video and you'll see a clip in a
second I said very straightforward
things check it out this company
actually builds the servers that house
the Nvidia AI chips the same AI chips
the entire Market is going Gaga over
well these chips have to go into certain
servers these guys build the servers
that's why I like the correlation to
Nvidia stock back in August but at some
point because they don't really have
aote at some point somebody can come
along and build similar servers at
cheaper it's a huge problem you have to
be aware of it's a massive massive risk
that's why I think this company is not
the next Nvidia they don't have the know
the IP and the Protections in the mode
of Nvidia that's not the next asml you
have to be very very careful don't be
confused don't go all in at one price
point don't get excited and buy into a
parabolic spike that's not how you do it
wait for some weakness before starting
opening a position as you just heard I
told you this ain't Nvidia don't buy
into a parabolic spike wait for weakness
to open the position and make sure you
understand that these guys have no moat
which means they're not the next Nvidia
there's a lot of risks there I gave you
a warning at a th000 bucks saying hey
this thing is running up way too hot now
whether you sold it or kept it or bought
it it's your business but on this
channel you got a warning this is
literally like the cany Roger song you
got to know when to hold them and when
to fold them and something runs up 400%
in six months it's probably a good idea
to start thinking about taking profits I
literally told you this in the video I
gave you a warning now at this point
this is water under the bridge it's in
the past who cares now now we're talking
about a whole new enchilada a whole new
situation right now smci stock same
stock that was trading at $1,200 when I
made my video telling you hey be careful
now it's trading at
$700 which is a 40% discount from the
peak now it gets interesting again this
stock right now if you want to be a part
of it if you wanted to DCA into smci and
it's your decision and your analysis but
if you like this stock this is a better
stock it's $700 than it was at
$1,200 so instead of fing into a
parabolic spike wait until weakness and
start dollar cost averaging into the
stock just like you can do here with
smci now look I'm not telling you to buy
or sell this ain't Financial advice for
the love of God understand that but I'm
using this as an example to show you how
formal in emotions can work both ways
and look if you don't want to get
rattled by a day like yesterday you got
to have a plan you have to understand
what are your goals where are you're
trying to get so you don't get mad you
don't get anxious and you don't panic if
you are a Trader right it's probably not
a great environment for you right now
right you have to think about stop
losses you have to think about you know
letting go of some of the losers to
manage your portfolio Traders is one
thing and this is a very volatile time
for them probably not the best days to
be a Trader if you had long positions
but if you're a longterm investor if
what you do is invest for the next 10 15
20 years this is a kid in the video
games store situation because right now
you have so many options to dollar cost
average and open new positions or reduce
the cost on your existing positions on
such great companies this is a bad time
to be a Trader but a really really good
time to be a long-term investor we'll
talk about one specific stock in a
second which I really like out of this
list but let me show you right Tesla is
now 10% cheaper I got it my portfolio
I'm not going to reanalyze Tesla for the
thousandth time right pener is down 6
and a half% Nvidia the entire Max 7 is
down you know the S&P 500 the index if
you want to get in the index that's down
like 4% the NASDAQ is now 8% lower than
the peak tsmc and asml the two leaders
of semiconductors are way way cheaper
like 10% cheaper crowd strike is now
down 30% 30% in just a few days so let's
take a look at crowd strike as an
example of how you can make money
because of sentiment circumstance and
days like yesterday now look crowd
strike is a stock we've been covering
here since 2021 for a long time it ain't
new in fact from my previous video Until
Now despite the 30% drop it is still up
70% now this company has absolutely a
whirlwind of issues to deal with right
now hearings lawsuits compensations
100% is it a career Ender for this
company is this a company ending
cataclysmic event hell to the no it's
not going to happen sure they take some
damage but this thing is far from being
in danger of closing or shutting down or
losing their dominance in the market
look at their numbers the company had
35% increase in Revenue the past year
186% increase in net income it has five
times more cash than debt I'm looking at
this I'm saying so the stock dropped
30% where the entire business is
exponentially doing better than the year
before and it's already a global lead
leader almost a quasi monopolistic
leader in its industry think about it if
crowd strike wasn't a Monopoly with a
little software update from crowd strike
shut down 70% of the Western Hemisphere
you have to understand how big this
company really is What's the magnitude
of what they do given how insane the
result one little software update had
they'll get out of it so my price Target
based on the five-year model is in the
bare case
$614 that's 140% increase 750 in the
midc case which is 190% increase and
$886,000
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