New insights on poverty | Hans Rosling

Summary

The speaker emphasizes the importance of accurate global statistics for understanding development, highlighting the progress made by countries like China and India. He showcases the historical economic and health data, pointing out the discrepancies between social progress and economic growth, particularly in emerging economies. The talk also addresses the challenges of carbon emissions and poverty, advocating for a holistic approach to development that values human rights and culture as ultimate goals.

Takeaways

• 📊 The speaker emphasizes the importance of accurate and accessible data, noting that previously unavailable statistics have been made accessible on the United Nations Statistic Division Home Page by May 1st.
• 🌏 The script illustrates the changing global dynamics, particularly highlighting the transformation of countries like China and India from developing to major world players, as well as the persistent challenges faced by Africa.
• 💡 Animated graphics are presented as a powerful tool for illustrating and understanding complex data and trends in global development.
• 📈 The speaker discusses the historical economic and health progress of various countries, showing a shift from industrialized to developing mindsets and the discrepancies that exist today.
• 🏥 The health and education sectors are highlighted as lagging behind economic growth in many countries, indicating a need for balanced development.
• 🌍 The script points out the environmental cost of economic growth, particularly carbon-dioxide emissions, and the need for sustainable development practices.
• 🏠 The importance of infrastructure, such as roads and credit, in lifting communities out of poverty is underscored.
• 🌾 The speaker shares personal experiences from Africa, emphasizing the potential for significant progress and the role of technology and markets in development.
• 📚 Education is presented as a crucial tool for empowerment, particularly for women, and as a means to ensure fair participation in economic activities.
• 🗳️ The script argues that while economic growth is a key driver for development, it is not the ultimate goal, which should be focused on human rights and culture.
• 🗡️ The speaker concludes with a dramatic demonstration of 'the seemingly impossible is possible,' using the metaphor of sword swallowing to inspire hope for overcoming global challenges.

Q & A

What were the three main points the speaker highlighted at the beginning of the speech?

The speaker highlighted that global statistics were not properly available, that the old mindset of industrialized countries being the model for development is outdated, and that animated graphics can make a difference.

What significant change did the United Nations Statistic Division announce?

The United Nations Statistic Division announced that by the first of May, full access to their databases would be available.

How does the speaker use animated graphics to represent data?

The speaker uses animated graphics to show the differences in fertility rates, life expectancy, and economic situations of various countries over time, illustrating changes in global development.

What does the speaker say about the current state of Africa in terms of fertility rates and health issues?

The speaker notes that Africa still has large families and is dealing with the HIV epidemic, which has affected the countries negatively.

What historical comparison does the speaker make between the United States and other countries regarding child mortality and GDP?

The speaker compares the United States' past economic and health situations to current conditions in countries like India and Chile, highlighting the progress made in child survival rates and GDP per capita.

What does the speaker indicate about the relationship between economic progress and carbon dioxide emissions?

The speaker indicates that economic and health progress has historically been accompanied by increased carbon dioxide emissions, and no country has achieved progress without environmental impact.

What is 'Dollar Street,' and what does it illustrate?

'Dollar Street' is a metaphor used by the speaker to illustrate the varying living conditions of families based on their income, from extreme poverty to wealthier conditions.

What does the speaker identify as the main needs and desires of people living in poverty in Africa?

The speaker notes that people living in poverty in Africa primarily desire technology, access to markets, public investment in schooling, healthcare, infrastructure, and credit.

How does the speaker view Africa's progress over the past 50 years?

The speaker views Africa's progress positively, stating that it has advanced from a pre-Medieval situation to a level comparable to Europe 100 years ago, despite starting from a challenging position.

What does the speaker consider the most important goals and means for development?

The speaker considers human rights and culture as the most important goals for development. For means, the speaker emphasizes economic growth, governance, education, health, environment, and human rights, with economic growth being the most crucial for improving survival rates.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Unlocking Global Statistics

The speaker discusses the progress made in making global statistics more accessible, emphasizing the importance of animated graphics in understanding data. The UN has opened their databases, and new software allows easier access to these statistics. The speaker reviews global trends in fertility rates, life expectancy, and economic conditions, highlighting the disparities between industrialized and developing countries. He presents historical data, showing how countries like China and India have evolved over time, and explores the impact of HIV on Africa. He also questions whether future improvements in health and economy are possible, using statistics to illustrate potential scenarios.

05:02

📊 Economic and Health Comparisons

The speaker compares the economic conditions and health outcomes of various countries over time. He demonstrates how countries like the United States, India, and the Philippines have evolved economically and in terms of child survival rates. He highlights the discrepancy between economic progress and social benefits in emerging economies, noting that social progress often outpaces economic growth. The speaker stages a 'race' between countries like Japan, Sweden, and the United States to show the rapid changes in health and economic status. He also shares personal family history to illustrate the dramatic improvements in Sweden over generations.

10:04

🌍 The Reality of Global Development

The speaker addresses the complex nature of global development, emphasizing that economic and health progress often comes at the cost of environmental damage. He discusses the per capita carbon dioxide emissions of various countries and the responsibility of high-income countries in causing climate change. He introduces the concept of 'Dollar Street' to illustrate the living conditions of families at different income levels. He shares his experiences from 20 years of research in Africa, highlighting the potential for technology and market access to lift people out of poverty. The speaker stresses the importance of public investment in education and infrastructure for sustainable development.

15:05

🎯 Goals and Means of Development

The speaker outlines the means and goals of development, emphasizing that economic growth is the most crucial factor for survival. Governance, education, health, and human rights are also important, but they serve as means rather than ends. He argues that culture, which brings joy to life, is a vital goal of development. The speaker insists that the seemingly impossible is possible, citing the progress made by African countries. He concludes with a dramatic demonstration of sword swallowing, symbolizing the idea that what seems impossible can be achieved.

Keywords

💡Statistics

Statistics refers to the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data. In the video, the speaker emphasizes the importance of making global statistics properly available to change the old mindset about development in industrialized versus developing countries. The example of animated graphics illustrates how visual representations of data can transform understanding and decision-making.

💡Developing Countries

Developing countries are nations with lower levels of industrialization, lower standards of living, and lower Human Development Index (HDI) compared to industrialized countries. The speaker discusses the historical and current differences between developing and industrialized countries, highlighting how the former are often perceived through an outdated lens that needs to change.

💡Fertility Rate

Fertility rate is the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime. The speaker uses fertility rate data to show changes over time in various countries, illustrating how both developed and developing countries have evolved in terms of family size and population growth.

💡GDP per Capita

GDP per capita is a measure of a country's economic output that accounts for its number of people. The video uses this metric to compare economic situations across different countries and times, showing the relationship between economic growth and child survival rates.

💡Child Mortality

Child mortality refers to the death of children under the age of five. The speaker contrasts historical and current child mortality rates to demonstrate improvements in health outcomes globally and to highlight ongoing disparities between different regions.

💡Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Carbon dioxide emissions are the release of CO2 into the atmosphere, primarily from burning fossil fuels. The speaker points out that economic and health progress in various countries has often come at the cost of increased carbon dioxide emissions, stressing the need for sustainable development practices.

💡Micro-credits

Micro-credits are small loans given to individuals, typically in developing countries, to help them start or grow a small business. The speaker notes the role of micro-credits in empowering people, especially women, to improve their economic situation and contribute to their community's development.

💡Health

Health is a state of physical, mental, and social well-being. In the video, the speaker discusses the crucial role of health improvements in overall development, showing historical trends and highlighting how health outcomes are often linked to economic conditions.

💡Education

Education refers to the process of receiving or giving systematic instruction, especially at a school or university. The speaker underscores the importance of education in development, as it equips individuals with the knowledge and skills needed to improve their lives and contribute to economic growth.

💡Human Rights

Human rights are the basic rights and freedoms that belong to every person in the world. The video highlights human rights as a fundamental goal of development, necessary for ensuring that all individuals can live with dignity and have the opportunity to reach their full potential.

Highlights

The world's statistics have not been properly made available, leading to an outdated mindset.

Animated graphics can make a significant difference in how we perceive and understand data.

The United Nations Statistics Division now offers full access to their databases as of May 1st.

A new software version allows for online access, eliminating the need for downloads.

Visual representation of data shows the historical and current differences between industrialized and developing countries.

China and India are highlighted as significant examples of countries that have made substantial progress.

Africa is identified as a region with ongoing challenges, including large family sizes and the impact of the HIV epidemic.

The presenter challenges the audience with speculative future statistics to provoke thought on potential developments.

Economic situation and child survival are compared on a global scale, showing a correlation between wealth and health.

Historical data from 1820 is presented, illustrating the progress in economic and health metrics over time.

The United States' economic and health trajectory is compared to other countries, highlighting disparities.

The presenter discusses the discrepancy between social progress and economic progress in emerging economies.

Japan, Sweden, and the United States are used to illustrate the rate of change in health and wealth over time.

The presenter's family history is used to show the rapid development of Sweden from a poor nation to a wealthy one.

Singapore is recognized as the current leader in child survival and health, surpassing Sweden.

Carbon-dioxide emissions are highlighted as a significant byproduct of economic growth and development.

The importance of considering per capita emissions in discussions about climate change is emphasized.

The presenter argues that economic growth, governance, education, and environment are crucial for development.

Human rights and culture are identified as the ultimate goals of development, beyond mere economic prosperity.

The seemingly impossible is possible, as demonstrated by the progress made by various countries and the presenter's own experiences.

A dramatic sword swallowing act concludes the presentation, symbolizing the belief in overcoming great challenges.

Transcripts

I told you three things last year.

I told you that the statistics of the world

have not been made properly available.

Because of that, we still have the old mindset

of developing in industrialized countries, which is wrong.

And that animated graphics can make a difference.

Things are changing

and today, on the United Nations Statistic Division Home Page,

it says, by first of May, full access to the databases.

(Applause)

And if I could share the image with you on the screen.

So three things have happened.

U.N. opened their statistic databases,

and we have a new version of the software

up working as a beta on the net,

so you don't have to download it any longer.

And let me repeat what you saw last year.

The bubbles are the countries.

Here you have the fertility rate -- the number of children per woman --

and there you have the length of life in years.

This is 1950 -- those were the industrialized countries,

those were developing countries.

At that time there was a "we" and "them."

There was a huge difference in the world.

But then it changed, and it went on quite well.

And this is what happens.

You can see how China is the red, big bubble.

The blue there is India.

And they go over all this -- I'm going to try to be

a little more serious this year in showing you

how things really changed.

And it's Africa that stands out as the problem down here, doesn't it?

Large families still, and the HIV epidemic

brought down the countries like this.

This is more or less what we saw last year,

and this is how it will go on into the future.

And I will talk on, is this possible?

Because you see now, I presented statistics that don't exist.

Because this is where we are.

Will it be possible that this will happen?

I cover my lifetime here, you know?

I expect to live 100 years.

And this is where we are today.

Now could we look here instead at the economic situation in the world?

And I would like to show that against child survival.

We'll swap the axis.

Here you have child mortality -- that is, survival --

four kids dying there, 200 dying there.

And this is GDP per capita on this axis.

And this was 2007.

And if I go back in time, I've added some historical statistics --

here we go, here we go, here we go -- not so much statistics 100 years ago.

Some countries still had statistics.

We are looking down in the archive,

and when we are down into 1820,

there is only Austria and Sweden that can produce numbers.

(Laughter)

But they were down here. They had 1,000 dollars per person per year.

And they lost one-fifth of their kids before their first birthday.

So this is what happens in the world, if we play the entire world.

How they got slowly richer and richer,

and they add statistics.

Isn't it beautiful when they get statistics?

You see the importance of that?

And here, children don't live longer.

The last century, 1870, was bad for the kids in Europe,

because most of this statistics is Europe.

It was only by the turn of the century

that more than 90 percent of the children survived their first year.

This is India coming up, with the first data from India.

And this is the United States moving away here, earning more money.

And we will soon see China coming up in the very far end corner here.

And it moves up with Mao Tse-Tung getting health,

not getting so rich.

There he died, then Deng Xiaoping brings money.

It moves this way over here.

And the bubbles keep moving up there,

and this is what the world looks like today.

(Applause)

Let us have a look at the United States.

We have a function here -- I can tell the world, "Stay where you are."

And I take the United States -- we still want to see the background --

I put them up like this, and now we go backwards.

And we can see that the United States

goes to the right of the mainstream.

They are on the money side all the time.

And down in 1915, the United States was a neighbor of India --

present, contemporary India.

And that means United States was richer,

but lost more kids than India is doing today, proportionally.

And look here -- compare to the Philippines of today.

The Philippines of today has almost the same economy

as the United States during the First World War.

But we have to bring United States forward quite a while

to find the same health of the United States

as we have in the Philippines.

About 1957 here, the health of the United States

is the same as the Philippines.

And this is the drama of this world which many call globalized,

is that Asia, Arabic countries, Latin America,

are much more ahead in being healthy, educated,

having human resources than they are economically.

There's a discrepancy in what's happening today

in the emerging economies.

There now, social benefits, social progress,

are going ahead of economical progress.

And 1957 -- the United States had the same economy as Chile has today.

And how long do we have to bring United States

to get the same health as Chile has today?

I think we have to go, there -- we have 2001, or 2002 --

the United States has the same health as Chile.

Chile's catching up!

Within some years Chile may have better child survival

than the United States.

This is really a change, that you have this lag

of more or less 30, 40 years' difference on the health.

And behind the health is the educational level.

And there's a lot of infrastructure things,

and general human resources are there.

Now we can take away this --

and I would like to show you the rate of speed,

the rate of change, how fast they have gone.

And we go back to 1920, and I want to look at Japan.

And I want to look at Sweden and the United States.

And I'm going to stage a race here

between this sort of yellowish Ford here

and the red Toyota down there,

and the brownish Volvo.

(Laughter)

And here we go. Here we go.

The Toyota has a very bad start down here, you can see,

and the United States Ford is going off-road there.

And the Volvo is doing quite fine.

This is the war. The Toyota got off track, and now

the Toyota is coming on the healthier side of Sweden --

can you see that?

And they are taking over Sweden,

and they are now healthier than Sweden.

That's the part where I sold the Volvo and bought the Toyota.

(Laughter)

And now we can see that the rate of change was enormous in Japan.

They really caught up.

And this changes gradually.

We have to look over generations to understand it.

And let me show you my own sort of family history --

we made these graphs here.

And this is the same thing, money down there, and health, you know?

And this is my family.

This is Sweden, 1830, when my great-great-grandma was born.

Sweden was like Sierra Leone today.

And this is when great-grandma was born, 1863.

And Sweden was like Mozambique.

And this is when my grandma was born, 1891.

She took care of me as a child,

so I'm not talking about statistic now --

now it's oral history in my family.

That's when I believe statistics,

when it's grandma-verified statistics.

(Laughter)

I think it's the best way of verifying historical statistics.

Sweden was like Ghana.

It's interesting to see the enormous diversity

within sub-Saharan Africa.

I told you last year, I'll tell you again,

my mother was born in Egypt, and I -- who am I?

I'm the Mexican in the family.

And my daughter, she was born in Chile,

and the grand-daughter was born in Singapore,

now the healthiest country on this Earth.

It bypassed Sweden about two to three years ago,

with better child survival.

But they're very small, you know?

They're so close to the hospital we can never

beat them out in these forests.

(Laughter)

But homage to Singapore.

Singapore is the best one.

Now this looks also like a very good story.

But it's not really that easy, that it's all a good story.

Because I have to show you one of the other facilities.

We can also make the color here represent the variable --

and what am I choosing here?

Carbon-dioxide emission, metric ton per capita.

This is 1962, and United States was emitting 16 tons per person.

And China was emitting 0.6,

and India was emitting 0.32 tons per capita.

And what happens when we moved on?

Well, you see the nice story of getting richer

and getting healthier --

everyone did it at the cost of emission of carbon dioxide.

There is no one who has done it so far.

And we don't have all the updated data

any longer, because this is really hot data today.

And there we are, 2001.

And in the discussion I attended with global leaders, you know,

many say now the problem is that the emerging economies,

they are getting out too much carbon dioxide.

The Minister of the Environment of India said,

"Well, you were the one who caused the problem."

The OECD countries -- the high-income countries --

they were the ones who caused the climate change.

"But we forgive you, because you didn't know it.

But from now on, we count per capita.

From now on we count per capita.

And everyone is responsible for the per capita emission."

This really shows you, we have not seen good economic

and health progress anywhere in the world

without destroying the climate.

And this is really what has to be changed.

I've been criticized for showing you a too positive image of the world,

but I don't think it's like this.

The world is quite a messy place.

This we can call Dollar Street.

Everyone lives on this street here.

What they earn here -- what number they live on --

is how much they earn per day.

This family earns about one dollar per day.

We drive up the street here,

we find a family here which earns about two to three dollars a day.

And we drive away here -- we find the first garden in the street,

and they earn 10 to 50 dollars a day.

And how do they live?

If we look at the bed here, we can see

that they sleep on a rug on the floor.

This is what poverty line is --

80 percent of the family income is just to cover the energy needs,

the food for the day.

This is two to five dollars. You have a bed.

And here it's a much nicer bedroom, you can see.

I lectured on this for Ikea, and they wanted to see

the sofa immediately here.

(Laughter)

And this is the sofa, how it will emerge from there.

And the interesting thing, when you go around here in the photo panorama,

you see the family still sitting on the floor there.

Although there is a sofa,

if you watch in the kitchen, you can see that

the great difference for women does not come between one to 10 dollars.

It comes beyond here, when you really can get

good working conditions in the family.

And if you really want to see the difference,

you look at the toilet over here.

This can change. This can change.

These are all pictures and images from Africa,

and it can become much better.

We can get out of poverty.

My own research has not been in IT or anything like this.

I spent 20 years in interviews with African farmers

who were on the verge of famine.

And this is the result of the farmers-needs research.

The nice thing here is that you can't see

who are the researchers in this picture.

That's when research functions in poor societies --

you must really live with the people.

When you're in poverty, everything is about survival.

It's about having food.

And these two young farmers, they are girls now --

because the parents are dead from HIV and AIDS --

they discuss with a trained agronomist.

This is one of the best agronomists in Malawi, Junatambe Kumbira,

and he's discussing what sort of cassava they will plant --

the best converter of sunshine to food that man has found.

And they are very, very eagerly interested to get advice,

and that's to survive in poverty.

That's one context.

Getting out of poverty.

The women told us one thing. "Get us technology.

We hate this mortar, to stand hours and hours.

Get us a mill so that we can mill our flour,

then we will be able to pay for the rest ourselves."

Technology will bring you out of poverty,

but there's a need for a market to get away from poverty.

And this woman is very happy now, bringing her products to the market.

But she's very thankful for the public investment in schooling

so she can count, and won't be cheated when she reaches the market.

She wants her kid to be healthy, so she can go to the market

and doesn't have to stay home.

And she wants the infrastructure -- it is nice with a paved road.

It's also good with credit.

Micro-credits gave her the bicycle, you know.

And information will tell her when to go to market with which product.

You can do this.

I find my experience from 20 years of Africa is that

the seemingly impossible is possible.

Africa has not done bad.

In 50 years they've gone from a pre-Medieval situation

to a very decent 100-year-ago Europe,

with a functioning nation and state.

I would say that sub-Saharan Africa has done best in the world

during the last 50 years.

Because we don't consider where they came from.

It's this stupid concept of developing countries

that puts us, Argentina and Mozambique together 50 years ago,

and says that Mozambique did worse.

We have to know a little more about the world.

I have a neighbor who knows 200 types of wine.

He knows everything.

He knows the name of the grape, the temperature and everything.

I only know two types of wine -- red and white.

(Laughter)

But my neighbor only knows two types of countries --

industrialized and developing.

And I know 200, I know about the small data.

But you can do that.

(Applause)

But I have to get serious. And how do you get serious?

You make a PowerPoint, you know?

(Laughter)

Homage to the Office package, no?

What is this, what is this, what am I telling?

I'm telling you that there are many dimensions of development.

Everyone wants your pet thing.

If you are in the corporate sector, you love micro-credit.

If you are fighting in a non-governmental organization,

you love equity between gender.

Or if you are a teacher, you'll love UNESCO, and so on.

On the global level, we have to have more than our own thing.

We need everything.

All these things are important for development,

especially when you just get out of poverty

and you should go towards welfare.

Now, what we need to think about

is, what is a goal for development,

and what are the means for development?

Let me first grade what are the most important means.

Economic growth to me, as a public-health professor,

is the most important thing for development

because it explains 80 percent of survival.

Governance. To have a government which functions --

that's what brought California out of the misery of 1850.

It was the government that made law function finally.

Education, human resources are important.

Health is also important, but not that much as a mean.

Environment is important.

Human rights is also important, but it just gets one cross.

Now what about goals? Where are we going toward?

We are not interested in money.

Money is not a goal.

It's the best mean, but I give it zero as a goal.

Governance, well it's fun to vote in a little thing,

but it's not a goal.

And going to school, that's not a goal, it's a mean.

Health I give two points. I mean it's nice to be healthy

-- at my age especially -- you can stand here, you're healthy.

And that's good, it gets two plusses.

Environment is very, very crucial.

There's nothing for the grandkid if you don't save up.

But where are the important goals?

Of course, it's human rights.

Human rights is the goal,

but it's not that strong of a mean for achieving development.

And culture. Culture is the most important thing, I would say,

because that's what brings joy to life.

That's the value of living.

So the seemingly impossible is possible.

Even African countries can achieve this.

And I've shown you the shot where the seemingly impossible is possible.

And remember, please remember my main message,

which is this: the seemingly impossible is possible.

We can have a good world.

I showed you the shots, I proved it in the PowerPoint,

and I think I will convince you also by culture.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

Bring me my sword!

Sword swallowing is from ancient India.

It's a cultural expression that for thousands of years

has inspired human beings to think beyond the obvious.

(Laughter)

And I will now prove to you that the seemingly impossible is possible

by taking this piece of steel -- solid steel --

this is the army bayonet from the Swedish Army, 1850,

in the last year we had war.

And it's all solid steel -- you can hear here.

And I'm going to take this blade of steel,

and push it down through my body of blood and flesh,

and prove to you that the seemingly impossible is possible.

Can I request a moment of absolute silence?

(Applause)