The End of Work as We Know It

Summary

The narrative unfolds through history, highlighting the evolution of work from the hunter-gatherer era to the present's 'infinite productivity era.' As productivity surged, the allocation of work hours shrank significantly, influenced by technological advancements and policy changes. Child labor was curbed, retirement introduced, and working weeks shortened. Technological strides, from automation to digital technologies, have shifted income distribution and rendered numerous jobs obsolete, pushing towards an economy where automation and AI predominate. This shift forecasts a future where employment focuses on human interaction, lifelong learning, and unconditional basic income, ushering us into an era where creativity and care define work.

Takeaways

• 👨‍💼 The nature of jobs and work has drastically changed over the centuries, from hunter-gatherers to the current era of infinite productivity.
• ⏳ Work time has been continuously compressed, with limitations on child labor, the introduction of retirement, and reduced working weeks.
• 💻 Advances in technology and productivity have led to the automation and disappearance of many traditional jobs.
• 🏢 Competition and the pursuit of productivity have accelerated automation, leading to the loss of jobs across various industries.
• 🏭 As more jobs become automated, economies focused on low labor costs have faced mass unemployment.
• 🌐 Reshoring policies have led to the return of automated production to countries of origin, reducing transportation costs and duties.
• 🤖 Professions like couriers, radiologists, and notaries have become obsolete due to technological advancements.
• 🏛️ Governments have aimed to balance productivity gains by limiting working time through compulsory schooling, retirement, and holidays.
• 💰 As the concentration of capital has increased, fiscal policies and income redistribution have been redefined to address social imbalances.
• 🧑‍🎓 Lifelong compulsory training and learning have become essential, with the concept of the traditional office disappearing.

Q & A

What historical shift marked the beginning of the 'infinite productivity era'?

The 'infinite productivity era' began as a new phase following the information era, characterized by significant advancements in technology and automation that drastically increased productivity and altered traditional work structures.

How did work time compression evolve historically up to the 19th century?

Historically, work time compression evolved through limiting child labor, introducing compulsory education, setting maximum working ages, and establishing retirement, as seen with Otto von Bismarck's retirement invention for Germans over 65 in 1881 and Henry Ford's adoption of the five-day work week in 1926.

What principle did states apply during the 19th century regarding productivity and working time?

During the 19th century, states unconsciously applied the principle that whenever productivity increased tenfold, working time was limited by a quarter, through mechanisms like compulsory schooling, retirement, holidays, and other government tools.

How did the concept of productivity change in the 1960s, according to Milton Friedman's observation?

In the 1960s, the concept of productivity began to be better understood, as exemplified by Milton Friedman's observation at an Asian shipyard where workers used shovels instead of machines, highlighting the defense of labor over efficiency.

What impact did the increase in productivity have on the distribution of income between capital and workers by the end of the 20th century?

By the end of the 20th century, the increased productivity began benefiting capital exclusively, with the worker's salary remaining almost unchanged, disrupting the traditional income redistribution law between capital and workers.

How did automation impact the job market by 2010, according to the Washington Post?

By January 2nd, 2010, the Washington Post reported that no jobs had been created in the US in the last decade, marking a significant impact of automation on the job market, as it was the first time this had happened.

What were some of the professions that disappeared by the end of the century due to automation?

By the end of the century, automation led to the disappearance of professions such as human calculators, switchboard operators, gas lamp lighters, knocker-uppers, and milkmen.

How did the concept of work change by 2054 in the 'infinite productivity era'?

By 2054, in the 'infinite productivity era', the concept of work shifted significantly, with only 1% of life dedicated to traditional work, and the remaining jobs being those where human interaction was preferred, such as athletes, craftsmen, and professional caregivers, indicating a move towards service and care as primary occupations.

What led to the concept of unconditional basic income, and how was it financed?

The concept of unconditional basic income arose from the need to redistribute income in the face of increased automation and reduced labor demand. It was financed by taxing fully automated companies based on their use of citizens' infrastructures and personal identities, with consumption taxes used to redistribute income to the weaker classes.

What new era did humanity enter according to the transcript, and what characterizes it?

According to the transcript, humanity entered the new era of imagination, characterized by the significant role of artificial intelligence and automation in daily life, a shift towards lifelong learning, and the importance of creativity and the human touch in remaining occupations.

Outlines

00:00

🔄 The Evolution of Work and Productivity

This paragraph traces the evolution of work from the dawn of humanity to the present, highlighting significant shifts in labor practices and productivity. Initially, work was synonymous with survival, with no concept of retirement until Otto von Bismarck introduced it in 1881. The 20th century saw further reductions in working hours and the introduction of social welfare measures like compulsory education and paid maternity leave. Economists began to worry about the impact of rising productivity on employment, leading to proposals for measures like the guaranteed minimum income. The advent of digital technology in the 1970s disrupted the traditional income distribution model, leading to a scenario where increases in productivity benefitted capital more than labor. This trend was exacerbated by automation and the adoption of technologies like Baxter robots and Amazon's Kiva systems, which further displaced human labor. By the early 21st century, concerns about mass unemployment due to automation were becoming reality, with significant social and economic implications.

05:05

🚀 Transition to an Automated Economy

This paragraph outlines the shift towards complete automation in various industries, marking the decline of traditional jobs and the rise of specialized professions. The automation wave has led to the obsolescence of roles like couriers, radiologists, and notaries, while creating a demand for new kinds of expertise. High levels of automation, exemplified by companies like Amazon achieving unprecedented revenue per employee, forced other companies to automate aggressively to remain competitive. This resulted in a significant reduction of the workforce in sectors like retail and banking, with jobs being replaced by machines or new technologies like blockchain. The societal impact of these changes includes a redefinition of fiscal policies to address the redistribution of income and the introduction of measures like unconditional basic income. The narrative closes by envisioning a future where work involves more personal interaction and lifelong learning, with technology playing a central role in both enabling and challenging traditional employment paradigms.

Keywords

💡Automation

The process of making machinery or equipment operate automatically, without direct human intervention. The video script discusses the increasing trend of automation replacing human workers in various industries, such as delivery, manufacturing, transportation, and food service. For example, it mentions Amazon's use of robot discs to move shelves and products in warehouses, autonomous trucks on British motorways, and automated fast-food restaurants like Momentum Machines.

💡Productivity

The efficiency of production of goods or services, expressed by the ratio of output to inputs. The video highlights the continuous increase in productivity over the centuries, enabled by technological advancements and automation. It suggests that while productivity has risen dramatically, the benefits have primarily accrued to capital rather than workers. For instance, it cites the 42% increase in the value produced by Americans between 1998 and 2013 without a corresponding increase in working hours.

💡Guaranteed Minimum Income

A form of social security that guarantees a certain minimum income for all citizens, regardless of their employment status or income level. The video mentions that in 1964, the Triple Revolution Committee proposed a guaranteed minimum income to address the potential impact of increased productivity and automation on mass employment. This concept aimed to ensure a basic standard of living in an economy of abundance.

💡Reshoring

The practice of bringing manufacturing and production processes back to a company's country of origin, reversing the trend of outsourcing to low-cost labor markets. The video suggests that between 2020 and 2030, companies in OECD countries enforced reshoring policies, bringing production back to their home countries. This allowed them to benefit from the complete automation of production, reducing transportation costs and duties.

💡Artificial Intelligence

The simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially computer systems. The video highlights the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in various sectors, such as healthcare, where systems like IBM's Watson are employed for diagnosis. It also suggests that people who can interact effectively with AI will be among the highest earners in the future, as human-AI collaboration becomes more prevalent.

💡Compulsory Education

A system that makes education mandatory for children and young adults up to a certain age, as implemented by governments. The video traces the historical trend of extending compulsory education, citing examples such as the introduction of compulsory schooling up to age 14 in France in 1936 and up to age 16 in 1959. This policy was a tool used by governments to limit working time as productivity increased.

💡Unconditional Basic Income

A form of social security that provides a periodic cash payment to all citizens, without any conditions or work requirements. The video suggests that by 2050, the tax system worldwide adopted the principle of unconditional basic income, financed by the use of citizens' infrastructures, networks, and personal identities. This policy aimed to redistribute income in the face of increasing automation and job displacement.

💡Automation Crisis

A situation where widespread automation leads to mass unemployment and economic disruption. The video describes how countries focused on low-cost labor were the first to experience a crisis of mass unemployment between 2020 and 2030 due to increasing automation. This crisis prompted companies in OECD countries to pursue reshoring strategies, bringing production back to their home countries to leverage complete automation.

💡Lifelong Learning

The concept of continuous learning and personal development throughout one's life, beyond formal education. The video mentions the introduction of "Learning Monday" in the Netherlands in 2027, where people can choose which module to study and be evaluated by artificial intelligence every Monday. This approach emphasizes the need for ongoing education and training to adapt to the changing job landscape.

💡Self-Sovereignty

The idea that individuals have control and ownership over their personal data, digital identities, and other personal assets. The video suggests that by 2050, citizens had developed self-sovereignty, with physical and digital networks, as well as personal identities, being owned by individuals. This concept aimed to empower citizens and enable them to benefit from the use of their personal data and assets.

Highlights

Introduction of the 'infinite productivity era' marks a new phase in human history, contrasting with previous eras like hunter-gatherers, agriculture, and industrial.

The historical reduction of work hours and the introduction of retirement by Otto von Bismarck as early societal changes reflecting adjustments to productivity and lifespan.

Henry Ford and Olivetti's contributions to reducing the workweek, promoting worker welfare, and setting a precedent for future work-time adjustments.

The principle applied during the 19th century that with every tenfold increase in productivity, working time is limited by a quarter through various means.

Milton Friedman's critique of labor-intensive methods in favor of productivity, highlighting the tension between employment and efficiency.

The transition to digital technologies in 1975 challenging the traditional income redistribution between capital and workers, leading to a growing disparity.

The automation of various professions by the end of the 20th century and the impact of digital technologies on job creation and productivity.

The significant role of autonomous vehicles and robots in industries, transforming professions like truck driving and warehouse operations.

The concept of reshoring driven by automation, allowing countries to bring production back home, reducing costs and focusing on customer access rather than cheap labor.

The displacement of traditional jobs by automation and AI, leading to the creation of new, specialized professions.

The analysis of the economy as a lake by Martin Ford, illustrating the impact of automation on the market and consumer purchasing power.

The introduction of unconditional basic income and other fiscal policies to address the redistribution of wealth in the face of automation and capital concentration.

The evolution of the workplace and work practices, including the disappearance of the traditional office and the rise of lifelong learning initiatives.

The taxation of fully automated companies and the implementation of consumption taxes to redistribute income within communities.

The emergence of the 'era of imagination,' where human creativity and interaction with AI become the most valuable skills.

Transcripts

2054. the jobs we knew have disappeared.

We dedicate 1% of our life to work.

Today it has different names that at the dawnof the century we did not even imagine.

Man has gone through many eras.

That of hunter-gatherers lasted a few million years

that of Agriculture a few thousand

the industrial era 200 years

that of information a few dozen

now a new one has begun: the infinite productivity era.

In the last 300 years work has been continuously compressed

Up to 1800 there was the concept that 'if you are alive you work'

At the end of the 19th century child labor was limited in England and Wales,

for example, with compulsory education up to ten years.

On the other hand a maximum working age limit is set.

In 1881 Otto von Bismarck invents retirement for German citizens over 65 years

it was cheap the average life in Germany was 39 years.

Decades after the working week is compressed.

In1926 Henry Ford adopted five days a week for 400,000 workers

In 1948 Olivetti in Italy also reduced it by removing the

Saturday and introducing maternity paid for nine months.

Work time keep squeezing.

In 1936 the compulsory school in France comes to 14 years. In 1959 to 16.

In 2018 some countries like Mexico, Argentina, part of the United States and others reach 18 years.

During the 19th century a principle is unconsciously applied by the states.

Whenever productivity increases tenfold

working time is limited by a quarter

through compulsory schooling, retirement,

holidays and other tools identified by governments.

Some states defend themselves from change slowing it down.

The Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman

visits an Asian shipyard in the 1960s

were instead of digging machines the

workers use shovels the motivation for this choice is the defense of work

Friedman sarcastic suggests using spoons.

In 1960 the concept of productivity and

its impact on economic processes begin to be better on stood.

The delivery person passing by the delivery on foot, then on horseback,

then by bike, then by scooter and then with a truck increases productivity by

delivering several packages at the same time

In 900 this increase in productivity is transferred always in the same way.

There is a fixed relationship between the share for the capital - one-third-

and the quota for workers - two-thirds.

But the increase in productivity worries economists who

theorize a possible end of mass work.

What would happen to the delivery man if he became useless with autonomous delivery?

In 1964 the triple revolution committee, also composed of two Nobles,

proposes the guaranteed minimum income

made possible by the economy of abundance.

In addition to new transitional measures such as training and Public Works.

In 1975 with the beginning of digital technologies

the law of redistribution of income between

capital and workers lost value.

Increased productivity begins to go exclusively

for the benefit of capital,

the salary of the worker remains almost unchanged.

At the end of the century many works have disappeared; the human calculators,

the switchboard operators, the lightest of gas lamps, the knocker-uppers, the milkman

and others are replaced by automation.

On January the 2nd 2010 the Washington Post titles that

no jobs have been created in the US in the last decade

never happened before.

In 2012 factories adopt programmable arms like Baxter robot

retailers automate warehouses, Amazon buys Kiva systems using disks that move

shelves and products.

Orders leave the warehouse in 15 minutes and not 60

anymore saving 40% on costs.

Productivity becomes the competitive goal.

In the 15 years between 1998 and 2013 the hours of work of the Americans remain unchanged

but the value produced increases by 42%

equal to plus three thousand five hundred billion dollars.

In 2018 autonomous trucks travel on motorways in Great Britain.

The robot bartenders who work without pay nor stops replace the

bartenders who strike in Las Vegas.

Even more esteemed professions like doctors

feel the pressure between five and twenty percent of

the diagnoses are inaccurate and artificial intelligence objects such as

Watson are used to remedy.

If at the beginning of the 19th century 23% of life was spent working

in 2018 the average working time in the world is around 13%

and in the OSCE Countries even less than 9%

The futurist Martin Ford analyzes the problem of customers without money

compare the market to a lake

when the company sells products it fishes

when it pays the workers it throws fish into the lake

the more automation is increased the less fish there will be in the lake.

Between 2020 and 2030 Countries that are focused on low labor costs are the first to go into crisis for mass unemployment.

Companies in the OSCE Countries enforce a reshoring policy on mass bringing

production back to the Country of origin.

The complete automation of production

allows to reduce transport costs and duties.

The largest corporate value becomes access to customers, no longer to labor.

Some professions disappear as the courier, the radiologist, the notary.

Technology made them obsolete the new professions are for specialists, only for a few.

Half of the jobs that existed 10 years earlier have been automated.

As in the 60s farmers who moved on masse to

the cities allowing the fields to be cultivated with machines with the

difference that today there are no new factory jobs waiting for them.

Competition pushes on the accelerator of automation companies could no longer

afford to compete with smart companies,

companies without human personnel,

not so much for prices as for quality of service and product.

When Amazon exceeds 2 million revenue per employee in 2025

Walmart that has a revenue of only $300,000 per employee

must make the biggest internal revolution ever made to

survive by automating all of its services all of a sudden.

The entire retail sector that represented 10 percent of workers is downsized.

Fast food restaurants become gourmet places Momentum machines which creates machines

to 100% automate the production of fresh meat burgers puts out of the market

McDonald's that employed almost 2 million people

Kura the chain of Japanese restaurants that as early as 2018 was completely

automated brings smart sushi to the world.

Like the cashiers the people at fast foods even the workers behind the steering wheel that in the US were

almost 8,000,000 before the 20s

in 2035 they have to relocate the tractors are

driven by themselves the fruit collection is managed by Agribot.

Cars by law in all OSCE Countries must be self-driving to avoid accidents

The warehouse workers disappear the Industrial Perception robots select the

objects to be taken in the trucks, Kiva's robot discs store them in the warehouses

and package them for customers in the fifth of the humans time.

The banking workers since they were labeled as living abacuses by the head of Deutsche Bank in 2017

no longer exist only ten years later.

The banks live on blockchain and the banking workers have become

crypto consultants to help the elderly to interface with the new technology.

In the 1940s the hyper concentration of

capital in the hands of a few multinational companies creates a global

social imbalance.

It does not bring benefits to workers who were no longer

part of the production process but pushes customers to claim a part of

redistribution of this value.

For this reason all fiscal policies and

redistribution of this income are redefined.

The works left in 2050 for

those where customers prefer the human touch

athletes, craftsmen, professional nurses for the elderly and lovers.

The job today is to take care of others what at the beginning of the century we called volunteering.

The people who earn the most of those who can better interact

with artificial intelligence and with other people.

The concept of office created in 1700 with the West India Company disappears after 350 years.

People no longer have the obligation to join in company spaces to work.

Compulsory training lasts a lifetime with learning Monday

introduced in the Netherlands in 2027. On Monday you can choose which

module to study and be checked by an artificial intelligence by the following Monday.

The tax system all over the world has now acquired the principle of

unconditional basic income financed by the use of citizens infrastructures.

Physical and digital networks and personal identities are owned by

citizens who have developed self sovereignty.

Fully automated companies are taxed according to their use and rewarded for hiring people.

Consumption taxes are used to redistribute income to the weaker classes within a community or state.

Man has entered the new era of imagination