Roundup: Market Exhaustion, Prediction Markets, & Pudgy L2

Summary

In this episode of Good Game, the hosts discuss the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, highlighting the tension between the old and new guard, the rise of speculation as a product feature, and the emergence of new use cases. They also explore the impact of in-house influencers on startups, the potential of DeFi protocols, and the role of prediction markets in political outcomes.

Takeaways

• 📈 The crypto market is experiencing a shift where speculation is becoming a feature in new product offerings, which is causing a divide between the old and new guard in the industry.
• 💡 Speculation is seen as a feature by the new guard but is often viewed negatively by the old guard, who are more traditional and resistant to change.
• 🤔 There is a sense of fatigue in the crypto community, with a divide between the optimistic and the cynical camps, and a lot of big accounts showing cynicism.
• 🔄 The old guard is being replaced by the new, as the latter embraces new methodologies and is not afraid of change, while the former is resistant.
• 💰 The old guard got rich from speculation and does not want it to be available to the masses, while the new guard sees it as a necessary part of the evolution of crypto.
• 🚀 Crypto trading and speculation are becoming more like competitive sports, with new speculators willing to take risks for potentially life-changing rewards.
• 🏁 The comparison of tokens to sports teams and speculation to a game highlights the competitive nature of the new crypto market.
• 🔑 The importance of having an in-house influencer for startups is emphasized, as they can represent the brand and leverage their network for growth.
• 📊 The discussion suggests that DeFi might be undervalued, with major protocols generating significant revenue that is not reflected in their market caps.
• 💡 The idea that successful brands or products turning into Layer Two solutions makes sense, but there is skepticism about the plethora of generic Layer Twos entering the market.
• 🔮 Prediction markets, especially those related to political events, are showing new dynamics, with tokens like Trump and Biden reacting to real-world events in real-time.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the 'Good Game' podcast?

The main topic discussed in the 'Good Game' podcast is the current state of the cryptocurrency market, with a focus on the dichotomy between the 'Old Guard' and the 'New Guard,' the role of speculation in crypto products, and the psychological aspects of the crypto community.

What is the 'Old Guard' and the 'New Guard' in the context of the crypto community?

In the context of the crypto community, the 'Old Guard' refers to those who were involved in cryptocurrency earlier and have become wealthy through speculation, while the 'New Guard' represents newer participants who are embracing speculation as a feature of crypto products and are driving innovation in the space.

Why do some members of the 'Old Guard' seem to be against the idea of speculation being a feature for the masses?

Some members of the 'Old Guard' are against speculation being a feature for the masses because they believe it should be exclusive to them, as it was the speculation that made them rich in the first place. They may also feel threatened by the new methodologies and the shift in the crypto meta.

What is the significance of the tweet by 'gainz' mentioned in the podcast?

The tweet by 'gainz' signifies the changing landscape of the crypto space, suggesting that the current cycle may be the last for the 'Old Guard' as they are being replaced by the 'New Guard' who are not enjoying the current state of the market and are considered washed and irrelevant.

What is the 'request for startups list' mentioned in the podcast?

The 'request for startups list' is a resource mentioned in the podcast that provides inspiration for the next startup idea in the crypto space, possibly a list of opportunities or challenges that new crypto startups could address.

What is the sentiment expressed in the podcast about the current state of the Ethereum network?

The sentiment expressed in the podcast about the current state of the Ethereum network is one of fatigue and a sense of stagnation, with discussions about making Ethereum more like Solana and the division between an optimistic camp and a cynical camp within the community.

What is the 'pump. fun' mentioned in the podcast?

'Pump. fun' is a term used in the podcast to describe a new type of game-like approach to cryptocurrency trading and speculation, where tokens are treated like sports teams and speculation is viewed as a competitive sport.

What are the implications of the shift in the crypto market from traditional value investing to a more speculative, competitive sport?

The shift implies that the market is becoming more about short-term gains and less about long-term value, with a new group of speculators who are willing to take on high risks for potentially life-changing rewards, much like in gambling or sports betting.

What role does the 'infra camp' play in the crypto market according to the podcast?

The 'infra camp' in the crypto market refers to the developers and builders who create the underlying infrastructure for the crypto ecosystem. They are competitively enhancing the technology and are essential for the success of the market, even though they may not always agree with the speculative aspects driven by the 'consumer camp'.

What is the significance of the chart mentioned in the podcast?

The chart mentioned in the podcast seems to represent different 'metas' or phases in the crypto market, indicating the rise and fall of various trends and the consensus among the community about where the market stands in relation to these trends.

What is the current state of NFTs according to the podcast?

According to the podcast, NFTs are in a 'long bottoming process,' suggesting that the market for non-fungible tokens has stabilized after a period of decline and is now in a phase of consolidation before potentially moving upwards.

What is the controversy surrounding the launch of 'Pudgies' on a new layer two?

The controversy is that the community is pushing back against the proliferation of new layer twos, with a particular focus on 'Pudgies' and its team, which some see as the right entity to build a successful layer two due to their established brand and community, unlike other generic layer twos without clear differentiation.

What is the current sentiment towards DeFi (decentralized finance) in the crypto community?

The sentiment towards DeFi in the crypto community, as expressed in the podcast, is that it is currently undervalued and unexciting in terms of innovation. However, the profitability of major DeFi protocols is not reflected in their market capitalization, suggesting a potential opportunity for value investors.

What is the purpose of having an in-house influencer for a startup?

The purpose of having an in-house influencer for a startup is to serve as a spokesperson for the brand, to leverage their network effects due to their followers, and to create influence that can help in user acquisition and product feedback, ultimately contributing to the growth of the user base.

What is the connection between the US presidential candidates and the crypto market?

The connection between the US presidential candidates and the crypto market is seen in the form of prediction markets like Poly Market, where the health and performance of candidates like Joe Biden can influence market volatility and sentiment, potentially impacting the crypto market.

What was the reaction of various prediction market tokens to the recent presidential debate?

The reaction of various prediction market tokens to the recent presidential debate was significant, with tokens like 'Bowden' going to zero and others like 'Obama' and 'Harris' experiencing substantial increases, reflecting the market's perception of the candidates' performance.