003 Causes of War Lecture 9 Hegemonic Stability Theory Part 1

Summary

This lecture explores hegemonic cycles and their impact on warfare, challenging traditional balance of power and deterrence theories. It delves into the concept that a hegemon's decline can trigger large-scale wars and discusses the significance of general wars, which have historically accounted for the majority of war deaths. The lecture also examines the rise and fall of various hegemonic powers, the influence of naval dominance on global trade, and the potential implications for the current international system, with a focus on the United States and the emerging power of China.

Takeaways

• 🌟 Hegemonic Cycles Theory suggests that a single powerful state (hegemon) organizes the international system and its decline can lead to large-scale wars.
• 📊 Hegemonic Cycles Theory rejects the balance of power and rational deterrence theory, emphasizing the accumulation of rivalries over time.
• 🏰 The lecture discusses major systemic wars, highlighting the importance of general wars which account for 90% of war deaths from 1494 to 2001.
• 🛳️ European states, with their colonies, have historically controlled the world's naval power, enabling them to dominate global trade and influence.
• 🔄 The script explores the concept of power transitions, where the rise of a new power challenges the existing hegemon, potentially leading to war.
• 🚢 Naval power is a critical factor in determining hegemony, with control over the seas allowing states to shape international trade and security.
• 🌍 The lecture provides historical examples of hegemonic shifts, including the rise and fall of powers like the Portuguese, Dutch, British, and current U.S. dominance.
• ⚔️ General wars are identified as prolonged and costly due to the balancing of power, multiple fronts of conflict, and the complexity of achieving a unified settlement.
• 🕊️ Pax Britannica exemplified a period of peace under British hegemony, suggesting that peace is more likely during the reign of a single dominant power.
• 🔧 The script discusses various theories of hegemonic cycles and war, including Organski's power transition theory and the long cycle theory.
• 🏛️ The Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 is noted as a turning point in political science, marking the birth of modern sovereign states with a monopoly on the legitimate use of force.

Q & A

What is the main premise of hegemonic cycles theory in relation to war?

Hegemonic cycles theory posits that a particularly powerful state, or hegemon, organizes the international system and leads the main coalition. The decline of the hegemon leads to challenging powers, and it's the actions of these powers that can lead to large-scale war.

Why does hegemonic cycles theory reject the balance of power concept?

Hegemonic cycles theory rejects the balance of power because it assumes that there is always a hegemon that organizes the international system, rather than a balance of powers maintaining stability.

How does hegemonic cycles theory relate to enduring rivalries?

Hegemonic cycles theory fits with the enduring rivalries perspective as it views disputes and crises as being chained together over time, similar to how rivalries accumulate and escalate.

What is the significance of general wars in the context of war deaths?

General wars are significant because the 10 identified general wars account for 90% of all war deaths, compared to thousands of other interstate conflicts and disputes between 1494 and 2001.

What is the definition of general wars as mentioned in the script?

General wars are defined as wars which include most of the world's major powers, defined as states that constitute at least 10 percent of the world's total power.

What was the role of the European states in shaping the world's naval power dynamics?

European states, particularly through their colonies, have controlled the world's naval power due to heavy state financing and key technologies such as ocean-going ships, the compass, and chronometers. They continue to control this power today.

How did the Chinese naval explorations in the 15th century impact global naval power?

Chinese naval explorations led by Admiral Zheng He were extensive but were later abandoned due to a shift in political ideology and power structure. This abandonment is seen as a missed opportunity for China to potentially colonize regions like Australia and the Americas before Europe.

What is the concept of 'status inconsistency theory' in the context of war?

Status inconsistency theory measures the differences between national aspirations and the distribution of benefits. It suggests that this distinction can lead to war, as countries may demand more respect or power relative to their perceived status.

What is the power transition theory as proposed by Organski?

Power transition theory, proposed by Organski, suggests that wars between the most powerful states occur as two states pass or are about to pass each other in total power. It implies that war happens when one state is in relative decline.

Can you explain the significance of the War of Dutch Independence in the context of hegemonic cycles?

The War of Dutch Independence was significant as it involved three of the five great powers at the time and marked a shift in power dynamics. The Dutch revolted against Spanish rule, and with British intervention, they eventually emerged as challengers, taking over international shipping and beginning their period as a maritime hegemon.

What are the key factors that lead to long and costly general wars according to Belani?

According to Belani, general wars are long and costly due to several factors: the balancing phenomenon that creates evenly balanced sides leading to military stalemate, the disappearance of neutral states that could restrain disputes, the fighting on multiple fronts that makes victory unlikely, and the difficulty in reaching settlements within and between coalitions due to the multitude of interests.

What does the script suggest about the future of international institutions if the US were to decline?

The script suggests that if the US were to decline, institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization might fail or be replaced. These institutions are seen as having been set up for America's benefit during its period of hegemony and may not persist without its influence.

How did the Thirty Years War contribute to the concept of modern sovereign states?

The Thirty Years War led to the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, which is considered the birth of modern sovereign states. It established the concept of a state having a monopoly on the legitimate use of force, shifting allegiance from the church and local potentates to the state.

What was the impact of the naval power on the control of world trade during the Dutch hegemony?

During the Dutch hegemony, naval power allowed the Dutch to shape and control world trade. They were able to stop trade where they didn't want it to happen and replace the Spanish and Portuguese as maritime hegemons, thus dominating global commerce.