Why Israel is an Overrated Ally

Summary

Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro challenges the notion of a perpetually special U.S.-Israel relationship, tracing its origins to Cold War alliances and U.S. energy dependency. He argues that with the fall of the Soviet Union and U.S. energy self-sufficiency, the strategic rationale for this alliance has diminished. Shapiro also critiques the Abraham Accords, suggesting they may be shortsighted in balancing regional power dynamics, and posits Turkey as the emerging dominant regional power, with Iran's economic and political challenges hindering its influence.

Takeaways

• 😐 The U.S.-Israeli relationship is not as eternally special as some believe; it was forged during the Cold War and has evolved over time.
• 🇫🇷 France, not the U.S., was Israel's primary ally post-1948, providing crucial nuclear technology and strategic support.
• 🕊 The U.S.'s stance against the Suez Canal crisis under Eisenhower's administration marked a shift in international relations with Israel.
• 🔨 The U.S.-Israeli alliance solidified during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars, serving as a counterbalance to Soviet-aligned Arab nations.
• 🏗️ The fall of the Soviet Union and the U.S. becoming energy self-sufficient have diminished the strategic rationale for the U.S.-Israeli alliance.
• 🤝 Despite geopolitical shifts, the U.S. still seeks regional stability in the Middle East, leveraging alliances to shape foreign policy.
• 💣 The U.S.'s invasion of Iraq and subsequent destabilization has inadvertently strengthened Iran's regional influence.
• 📊 The Abraham Accords aim to create a balance of power in the Middle East, uniting Israel with Sunni Arab states against Iran and Turkey.
• 🚀 Turkey is emerging as a dominant regional power, expanding its economic and military influence while Iran faces economic and political challenges.
• 🔄 The U.S. and Israel must pragmatically reassess their relationship and strategic interests in a changing geopolitical landscape.
• 🌍 The long-term balance of power in the Middle East may ultimately be between Turkey and Iran, with other regional actors playing significant roles.

Q & A

What is the current status of the relationship between the United States and Israel according to the geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro?

Jacob Shapiro suggests that the relationship between the United States and Israel is no longer a key strategic partnership. He argues that the 'special relationship' is not eternal and has been shaped by historical events and geopolitical interests that have evolved over time.

Who was Israel's top ally at the time of its formation in 1948?

At the time of Israel's formation in 1948, France, not the United States, was its top ally. France provided significant support, including nuclear technology, which contributed to Israel's current capabilities.

How did the Suez Crisis impact the relationship between Israel, France, and the United States?

The Suez Crisis saw France and Britain conspiring with Israel to take over the Suez Canal. However, the Eisenhower Administration intervened, telling Israel to withdraw and reprimanding Britain and France, which marked a shift in international relations.

What major geopolitical event marked the beginning of a strong US-Israel relationship?

The strong US-Israel relationship was forged during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars. These conflicts solidified the US as a key ally for Israel in the region.

How did the fall of the Soviet Union affect the strategic logic of the US-Israel relationship?

The fall of the Soviet Union significantly impacted the strategic logic of the US-Israel relationship. With the end of the Cold War, the rationale for the alliance weakened, as the Soviet threat that had aligned the US and Israel was no longer present.

What is the current state of US energy dependence on the Middle East?

The United States is no longer dependent on Middle Eastern oil. With the rise of shale gas and other energy sources, the US has become self-sufficient and can even support Europe's energy needs, reducing its strategic interest in the Middle East.

What does Jacob Shapiro believe the United States is receiving from its relationship with Israel currently?

Shapiro argues that the United States is not receiving significant benefits from its relationship with Israel in terms of existential national security threats. He suggests that Israel is not providing much in return for the support it receives from the US.

What historical event is often cited as a turning point for the balance of power in the Middle East?

The invasion of Iraq by the United States and the subsequent destabilization of the country is often cited as a turning point. It removed a key counterbalance to Iran, allowing Iran to become a more disruptive power in the region.

What is the geopolitical significance of the Abraham Accords according to the script?

The Abraham Accords are seen as an attempt to create a balance of power in the Middle East by forming an alliance between Israel and Sunni Arab states, which could potentially push back against Iran and Turkey's influence in the region.

What does Shapiro believe is the main issue with the current approach to the Middle East by the United States?

Shapiro believes that the United States has made a mistake by isolating Iran and not recognizing the potential for pragmatic cooperation. He suggests that the US should avoid cutting the knees out from under powers that are supposed to balance each other in the region.

How does the script describe the current situation with Iran's economy and its geopolitical standing?

The script describes Iran's economy as being in disarray and its politics as being isolated by Western countries. This has led to Iran being unable to effectively balance against Turkey, which is expanding its influence in the region.

What does Shapiro suggest as a potential long-term outcome for the balance of power in the Middle East?

Shapiro suggests that Turkey is likely to become the dominant power in the region, due to its growing economy and expanding influence, which could be a concern for countries like the United States and Israel.