The Portfolio Manager | Portfolio Construct Of PPFAS Flexicap Fund | NDTV Profit
Summary
TLDRIn this insightful discussion, portfolio manager Rajiv Tuker of PPFAS explains his investment strategy, focusing on sectors like financials and select utilities. He addresses concerns about liquidity, valuations, and the impact of regulations on capital markets. Rajiv shares his views on the banking sector, preferring large private banks over PSUs and NBFCs due to cost of funds and diversification. He also discusses the cyclicality in capital markets, the potential of IT services, and the challenges of investing in real estate, emphasizing a medium to long-term investment thesis.
Takeaways
- 📈 The portfolio stance is not heavily tilted towards any particular sector or theme, but financials and select utilities are currently seen as attractive.
- 🏦 Despite leadership transitions and mergers causing temporary disfavor, the banking sector is considered undervalued with good asset quality and potential for growth.
- 🤖 Concerns about AI and generative AI's impact on the IT sector are not as severe as feared, with the belief that while some tasks may be automated, the need for human understanding and integration remains.
- 🏢 The real estate sector is avoided due to its project-based unpredictability and accounting challenges, making it less attractive for investment.
- 💼 The IT services sector is experiencing a period of subdued growth due to concerns about near-term demand, but past cycles suggest a potential resurgence.
- 💡 There is a preference for banks over NBFCs (Non-Banking Financial Companies) due to the cost of funds advantage and diversified opportunities in banking.
- 🌐 International exposure is present in the flexi-fund, which includes companies in software services, cloud computing, and digital advertising.
- 📉 The capital markets sector has seen regulatory actions, but the decision to reduce exposure was more due to concerns about cyclicality and high valuations rather than regulations.
- 📊 The mutual fund has underperformed in the last one year, but this is attributed more to market conditions and valuations rather than size or lack of global exposure.
- 🛑 The building materials sector, while predictable, currently appears expensive and is not heavily represented in the portfolio.
- 🚫 The fund manager is willing to underperform in markets where valuations are high, preferring to wait for better opportunities rather than chase returns.
Q & A
What is the current portfolio stance according to the transcript?
-The portfolio stance is not sectorally tilted towards any particular theme more than the weightages might be, and the strategy is not high churn. It's largely a buy and hold kind of fund, with sectoral preferences for financials and select utilities due to attractive valuations and good asset quality.
How does the size of the fund impact its strategy and performance?
-Despite being smaller in active AUM compared to larger fund houses, liquidity is not a challenge due to the fund's strategy of not requiring daily turnover of the full portfolio. The size has not significantly impacted the fund's performance, as underperformance has occurred even when managing smaller funds.
What is the view on the financial sector, specifically banks, according to the portfolio manager?
-The financial sector, particularly banks, is seen as attractive due to cheap valuations, good asset quality, and concerns over growth rates being temporary. The portfolio manager prefers public sector banks over private sector banks and NBFCs due to the cost of funds advantage and diversified opportunities.
What are the concerns regarding the IT services sector?
-There are concerns about the near-term growth of the IT services sector, which has led to subdued performance. However, the portfolio manager is not overly worried about the impact of AI and generative AI on the sector, expecting some impact but not as much as generally feared.
How does the portfolio manager view the role of banks in India's growth?
-The portfolio manager believes that for India to grow, banks need to become bigger as they play a crucial role in funding real estate sales, car sales, and infrastructure. Near-term challenges are seen as temporary, and growth is expected to return as credit growth normalizes.
What is the portfolio manager's stance on the consumption FMCG space?
-The portfolio manager does not favor the consumption FMCG space overall due to high valuations. However, there is an exception for a one-off company that was found attractive and continues to be held in the portfolio.
What are the portfolio manager's thoughts on the real estate sector?
-The real estate sector is considered difficult to invest in due to its project-to-project basis and unpredictability. The portfolio manager prefers to spend time analyzing and investing in more predictable businesses, leading to the absence of real estate in the portfolio.
How does the portfolio manager approach the building materials sector?
-While the building materials sector is more predictable than real estate, the portfolio manager has not invested in it due to valuations appearing a bit expensive. The sector is still noted for its potential, but current investments are not present.
What is the portfolio manager's view on the impact of regulations in the capital markets?
-The portfolio manager sees regulatory measures as a part of life and not very unusual. The concern is more around the cyclicality of the capital markets rather than regulatory changes, leading to a reduction in exposure due to high valuations and cyclicality.
How does the portfolio manager address the underperformance in the last one year?
-The portfolio manager attributes underperformance to valuations and the time it takes to find suitable opportunities rather than size. They are comfortable with underperformance in such markets and are willing to wait for the next big opportunity.
Outlines
📈 Portfolio Stance and Sectoral Preferences
The speaker discusses the current portfolio stance, emphasizing a sectorally tilted approach rather than strict adherence to index weightages. They highlight the attractiveness of the financial sector, particularly due to cheap valuations and good asset quality, despite concerns over growth rates. The speaker also touches on the challenges faced by the banking sector, including leadership transitions and the impact of RBI's tight liquidity policies. Additionally, they mention a preference for public sector banks over NBFCs due to the cost of funds advantage and the diversified opportunities within the banking sector.
🏦 Banking Earnings and Market Impact
This paragraph delves into the broader implications of banking sector earnings on the market. The speaker expresses a medium to long-term investment thesis, asserting that India's growth is intrinsically linked to the expansion of its banking sector. They acknowledge short-term challenges due to global inflation concerns and the RBI's tight liquidity policy, but they anticipate a return to growth as these issues normalize. The speaker also addresses the cyclical nature of capital markets and the impact of regulatory changes, suggesting that their investment decisions are more influenced by valuations and cyclicality rather than regulatory actions.
💼 Financial Services and Regulatory Impact
The speaker reflects on the regulatory environment affecting financial services, including capital markets and insurance. They note that while regulations are a part of every sector's life, their concern regarding capital markets is more about its cyclical nature rather than regulatory changes. The speaker also discusses the impact of high valuations on their investment decisions, particularly in the context of capital market players, and explains their strategy of reducing exposure due to these concerns.
🤖 Tech Sector Outlook Amidst AI Advancements
The speaker provides insights into the tech sector, particularly IT services, amidst the rise of AI and generative AI. They express a nuanced view on the impact of AI, suggesting that while some automation is possible, the need for understanding business cases and the human element in software development will persist. The speaker also mentions the trend of setting up captives in India by large players, which could potentially impact the outsourcing model and the IT services sector.
🏠 Real Estate and Building Materials - Absence from Portfolio
The speaker explains the absence of real estate and building materials in their portfolio, citing the unpredictable and project-based nature of the real estate sector as a challenge for investment. They contrast this with more predictable businesses like FMCG and express a preference for sectors where the business model is more consistent and less subject to project-specific risks.
📉 Market Performance and Portfolio Management
In this paragraph, the speaker addresses the topic of market performance and portfolio management, particularly in the context of underperformance over the last one year. They dismiss theories attributing underperformance to size or lack of global exposure, instead focusing on the high valuations in the market as a reason for their cautious approach. The speaker is content with underperforming in such markets, preferring to wait for better investment opportunities.
📊 Market Overview and Sector Performance
The final paragraph provides a snapshot of the current market situation, with the Nifty 50 and the Sensex marginally down. It highlights the top contributors and losers to the Nifty 50, as well as the sectors that are performing well or lagging behind. The speaker notes the FMCG sector's positive performance and the underperformance of sectors like PSU banks, metals, real estate, communications, pharma, media, and banking.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Portfolio Stance
💡Liquidity
💡Valuation
💡Active AUM
💡Financials
💡Consumption FMCG
💡IT Services
💡Private Sector Banks
💡Cyclicality
💡Regulatory Measures
💡Generative AI
💡Captive Centers
💡Real Estate
💡Underperformance
Highlights
The portfolio stance is currently not sectorally tilted towards any particular theme, and weightages are not disregarded.
Liquidity is not a challenge, and the strategy is not high churn, with a buy-and-hold approach.
Active AUM is significantly smaller compared to larger fund houses, impacting the approach to liquidity and portfolio management.
Financials are currently an attractive space due to cheap valuations, good asset quality, and concerns over growth rates.
Leadership transitions and mergers in the banking sector have temporarily made it unattractive, but it is expected to offer great value.
IT services are of concern due to near-term growth worries, while pharma has some reasonable names.
Private sector banks are preferred over PSU banks and NBFCs due to scale, technology platform, and cost of funds advantage.
Banks are favored over NBFCs for diversification and access to float funds.
Banking earnings are expected to pick up as inflation worries subside and credit growth normalizes.
Regulatory actions in the capital market space are seen as part of the regular tweaking of guidelines to reduce risk and improve consumer outcomes.
Cyclical nature of capital markets is a concern due to the impact on earnings during bull and down markets.
The absence of direct investment in insurance companies is due to indirect exposure through banks and holding companies.
Tech sector, especially IT services, faces challenges with AI and generative AI, but the impact is not as feared.
Smaller IT companies have seen significant valuation increases, leading to exits based on high valuations.
Real estate and building materials sectors are absent from the portfolio due to project-based unpredictability and high valuations.
Underperformance in the last one year is attributed to market conditions and valuations rather than size or global exposure.
Transcripts
versus just the prospects of business
right in any underlying beted that you
take what is the portfolio stance
currently I mean is it is it sectorally
tilted towards any particular theme more
than what the weightages might be do you
pay regard to those kind of weightages
also or are you not quite playing paying
regard to weightages
uh so n liquidity is not really a
challenge valuation is so uh
we get picked on because we run a single
strategy across two schemes uh in the
equity space so we have a flex Cap Fund
and tax fund which largely mirrors the
uh Flex cab fund uh now in terms of
active AUM you would be maybe one six or
17th the size of the larger fund houses
that are there in some cases maybe I
don't know maybe even if you add
passives then we may be even smaller so
uh liquidity is not so much of a
challenge again our strategy is not a
high churn it's not that every day I
need to turn over the full portfolio by
selling something and buying something
else it's largely been a b hold kind of
fund even from the time when we were
smaller uh sectorally uh I think the
attractive space is the financials uh
right now where the valuations are uh
cheap where the uh asset quality is
quite good and the only thing that
people are concerned about is the growth
rates where RBI has been trying to slow
things down in terms of the keeping the
liquidity a bit tight raining in the
credit growth uh again there have been
leadership transitions in uh a few Banks
uh there has been a merger which one of
the banks went through so because of
these specific reason
temporarily the space is out of favor
but I think that space is uh looking to
be of great value but otherwise uh as
such we look at each stock on its own
Merit uh so while we overall don't like
the consumption fmcg space given the
valuations but we have a oneoff company
over there uh which looked attractive
when we added meaningfully to it and we
continue to hold that so the con struct
is on a stock by stock basis uh in terms
of sectors I think the financials and
select utilities uh are looking good uh
IT services again there is some concern
about near term growth because of which
they were subdued a while back uh Pharma
some names are reasonable so yeah that's
the sector clearly I mean when I when I
just scan through what you've done in
the recent past as well right April
versus may you bought in or you added
onto some of these large banking names
uh Pure Play Banks private sector Banks
so the question that emanates is do you
like private sector Banks versus PSU
Banks do you like the large private
Banks versus the midsize Banks and do
you like the large private sector Banks
versus nbfcs so I've kind of given the
three subsets on the banking side per se
give us some sense of the
construct yeah so so in the banking
space across private and psus uh there
are to my mind five banks four in
private and one in public sector uh
which have a good amount of scale which
have a good uh technology platform which
have a range of all the services that
are there not only in banking but uh
other Allied spaces as well things like
life General Insurance uh Asset
Management Securities brokerage
Investment Banking and so on so uh
largely it's between these five banks uh
we prefer the public SE we prefer the
private sector space But even public
sector is not bad and it's reasonably
good uh as far as the nbfc space
goes uh we have had a preference towards
the banking space instead of nbfc purely
on account of the fact that the uh cost
of fund Advantage I think is significant
uh for the banking space uh even in
terms of term deposits a private sector
bank or a public sector bank will get
term deposits at much lower rates than
what nbfc would uh typically incur and
with increased uh technology and
computerization there is scope for
reduction in uh cost to income ratio
over a period of time for uh Banks as
well whereas uh access to float funds is
a definitely a challeng all for the nbfc
players also what happens is typically
nbfcs tend to play in one particular
segment so you'll have Micro Finance
players or you'll have gold loan players
or you'll have commercial vehicle
Finance years whereas in the bank you
get a diversified uh opportunity in
terms of the financial sector so yes our
preferences towards Banks got it uh well
well noted and uh could could Banks uh I
mean uh this morning we were talking to
a sside expert uh after especially after
the banking q and updates the way they
have come Rajiv and the belief is that
if banks miss their earnings in the
quarter or for the year at large it's
very difficult for the rest of the
sectors to take up that mantle because
it's not that earnings are looking Rosy
across I would just like your broad
brush view on banking earnings and
whether you believe that uh they will
pick up and if not or if let's assume if
in the event that they were to slip can
can some other sectors come to the four
and pick up that tab or is it going to
be difficult for earnings if banks don't
live up to their
billing well is different players in the
market space operate on different time
Horizons there are people who Focus uh
meaningfully on uh what this quarters
earnings will be and uh whether uh the
actual reported number will exceed the
expectation or will be lower than the
expectations and things like
that uh our uh investment thesis is more
medium to longer term where we are
saying that if India is to grow it
cannot grow without uh the banks
becoming bigger so if real estate sales
have to happen if Car Sales have to
happen if infrastructure is to get
funded uh there will have to be lending
uh from the bank in uh space a near term
uh yeah it's challenging given not
because of Any uh thing wrong with the
sector near term is a challenge because
of the global concerns around inflation
and the uh RBI sance of uh keeping
liquidity on a tight leash and slowing
down the unsecured uh lending uh largely
it's been on the nbfc side but even for
banks to to slow down that space so uh I
think it's temporary as uh inflation
worries go away as the credit growth
normalizes I think you'll see growth
coming back about the overall Market
earnings so we don't track each and
every Nifty company that is there so I
don't have a market-wide estimate uh but
from what uh I'm seeing is that the
sales growth are slow earlier there was
this margin uptake which happened
because of input cost uh easing I think
that is maybe behind us so it could be a
bit subdued quarter the way I look
at okay and so many other sectors to
talk about as well since you mentioned
some but I would love to extend this
conversation before we take the first
break Rajiv to and and uh to the other
aspects of the financial services
space um Capital markets because uh you
had a fair degree of presence there you
probably still do in some fashion but um
there has been a fair degree of
regulatory
action uh within the Capital Market
space um uh as recently as last couple
of weeks ago um even on the brokerages
as well um now I would love to
understand how do you think of the
various aspects of the non-lending
financials Capital markets first maybe
even I'll throw in an insurance out
there because you traditionally used to
have if I'm not wrong um an insurance uh
presence in your portfolio which is not
which I don't we have had uh uh
investments in companies which have
insurance companies so we have uh Banks
which own insurance companies and we
have a holding company which has a uh
insurance subsidary so we do have
indirect Insurance presence but no
direct investment in the insurance G
call what about Capital markets Raj
yes so yes there have been regulatory
measures but uh I like to say today
unless you are maybe a seller of luxury
handbags uh almost every sector is
regulated so uh if you are in the
automobile space for example uh what
happens to emission Norms what is the
policy around hybrids what is
policy around uh electrification will
definitely affect you uh so uh whether
it be banking whether it be Capital
markets uh whether it be Pharma everyone
is affected by some regulation or the
other and it's a part of life uh Capital
markets uh so the regulations that have
come in I don't think are very very
unusual because periodically there has
been a tweaking of guidelines uh in
terms of reducing risk in the
marketplace or uh improving competition
or making things better for the consumer
so all these things have been going on
for a very very uh long time so
shortening of the settlement cycle and
so on this measure where a certain
amount was being charged to the End
customer which was higher than what they
were actually paying to the exchanges I
think had to be remedied somewhere uh
because in a way uh it's not transparent
and it's not fair to the customer uh our
concern around uh Capital Market has
been more around the cyclicality rather
than the regulatory
changes uh it's uh so n it's interesting
to see that let us say if the same
number of shares traded let's say
company a every day the volume is 100
shares now when the price of uh the
share is 10 then the traded volume is
1,000 and when the price goes to 20 the
traded volume goes to 2,000 so in a bull
market the uh volume goes up the value
goes up everything goes up and the costs
don't go up in line and so the earnings
are very very strong for all the Capital
Market players uh be it the exchanges be
the stock Brokers be the asset
management companies uh and in a down
Market those earnings uh have a
significant dip so we have had a few
years of uh extremely strong earnings
and uh again share prices have gone up
significantly so we have been reducing
exposure in this SP purely on account of
the cyclicality and the valuations
rather than concerns around
regulations okay so so so okay so the
the supposed exit from one of the player
or maybe a couple of them is not because
of the regulation thing but because of
the valuation uh uptick that we we have
been trimming it for a while for before
the regulation came in we have been
trimming it for a while got it okay
Rajiv stay on I would love to pick your
brains a bit more uh but we need to slip
into a quick commercial break come back
and try and do that
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welcome back to the portfolio manager
you know the thing the less has spoken
about our portfolio manager today
um it's it's difficult to do that simply
because from very modest Beginnings uh
ppf has now racked up an AUM which could
be the Envy of a number of people and uh
um last year uh they probably clogged in
uh 37 38% Returns versus the index for
39 but if you look at the mutual fund
returns as you should over a threee and
a 5year period with this higher AUM as
well they have beaten the index
comfortably and therefore it becomes
important to get a sense of how Rajiv
Tucker thinks about the portfolio
construct in the current market scenario
and hence uh we requested him to come on
the come on air today and talk about it
it's been a fascinating conversation
thus far Rajiv I look forward to some
more minutes of insights from you um I
would love to come and talk a bit about
tech Rajiv I know you traditionally
believe in keeping things simple but
that you know it's difficult to keep
things simple with it simply because
there's this whole talk of AI and how
would Indian it uh work within that
whole landscape can earnings come back
is there value right now because these
are great cash flow generating companies
multiple arguments right and the Bulls
say that we've seen enough instances of
past challenges which they have
navigated through uh I don't see too
many large it names except for one or
two within your top 15 Holdings um now
why is that are you underwe the sector
if yes why
so so n one of the things in the flexi
fund that we have is we can invest some
money overseas and abroad we have uh
companies which uh are either uh
software service providers so operating
system and office productivity Suites or
they're in the cloud computing space or
digital advertising and so on so from
that point of view in the flex fund we
don't have uh too many uh IT services
companies especially the larger ones in
the flex fund where we don't have the
international exposure we do have uh
those companies in our
portfolio coming to the uh outlook for
these stocks so as you mentioned there
have been multiple uh Cycles in the past
uh so earlier you had the main based uh
Computing environments then it moved to
the uh Network and uh client server kind
of architecture uh later on there was
this big shift towards the internet and
multimedia and uh so on after that you
had the whole wave of uh social media
cloud and analytics and uh those kind of
things uh so periodically there have
been these transitions uh in the uh IT
services space and the people have had
to relearn the newer Technologies the
organizations have had to reinvent
themselves and they are more or less
used to it so you have this period these
periods of strong demand and uh then
demand taper off and then it again comes
back I think this time it'll be somewhat
similar uh the one big concern that
people have is around the uh Ai and
generative AI where uh there is this
fear that uh these large language models
can write programs and you won't need so
many people to uh build
software so of course some of the things
can be automated and uh uh some code can
be return so debugging can be uh easier
in some cases or uh some routine tasks
can be automated but the whole thing
about understanding the uh business case
Translating that into the different
steps that are required stitching
together all the code testing it out all
those things will be required so I'm not
so worried about the uh generative way I
think there will be some impact but not
as much as generally is feared uh
another Trend which is a bit of a
dampener is the uh setting up of
captives here in India so uh what some
of the larger players are doing is
rather than Outsourcing the activity
they are themselves setting up offshore
uh Development Centers in places like
India and they are themselves taking
people on their payroll uh so that uh
trend is something that one needs to
watch
out you in the past had likeed some
smaller it name some product companies
Etc uh there is this whole ER and space
that is now formed out as well um you do
not like those pockets as well or are
they just
expensive so some of the uh smaller
companies that we owned went up like 6
7x in some cases 10x in a very short
span of time so valuations became too
much of of a challenge so we exited
purely based on
valuations the businesses are doing
reasonably okay got it rajie uh for
somebody who's who told I mean we spoke
in this interview about how that if
India has to grow if real estate has to
sell uh then banks have to grow but you
did invoke real estate sales and for a
sector that is in a bit of a frenzy when
it comes to pre-sales or quarterly sales
I notice that it's conspicuous by its
absence in your portfolio either real
estate or building materials why
so uh so n it's been a difficult sector
to invest in uh so so if you are buying
let's say a uh fmcg company you you buy
a soap manufacturer you know that uh
like
clockwork the manufactory will keep
manufacturing it they will uh
distributed by the logistics and supply
chain to the uh stores and it'll get
consumed and you know the margins you
know the ad spend it's a predictable
business real estate is very unlike that
one is it works on a project to project
basis so let's say in uh Mumbai a
developer could do well in western
suburbs and get stuck in some premium
housing in uh South Mumbai so you have
these kind of things happening so uh a
lot of people invest at the SPV level at
the project level instead of the listed
company those people seem to be doing
reasonably okay but otherwise the
uh money keeps getting redeployed at the
company level and it keeps going through
these up and down Cycles uh again the
accounting is tough in this space
because Pro percentage of project
completion and what are the assumptions
and uh things like that it's just that
time is better spent elsewhere uh
analyzing and investing it's too tough
in that sense Fair call um okay okay
even building materials Raj building
materials is an interesting space so we
have looked at it in the past for some
reason we don't have Investments there
and again things are looking a bit
expensive in that space but uh that is
more or less a predictable business so
okay anything and everything uh to do
with it got it okay tiles cement forets
everything noted Raji my one final
question um a lot of people talk about
this right I I I mentioned this at the
start of the second segment that you
look at mutual fund Investments over 3
five years and not over one year and and
even with this High Bas you've done so
well uh the question that comes in that
in the last one year if there has been
um a a percentage point of
underperformance is it attributable to
size is it attributable to the fact that
you don't have as much global companies
exposure as you used to and so many
theories float around I would love for
you to talk about it because it best to
hear it from the horse's
mouth so you are being too kind n
attributing size to the underperformance
I have
underperformed uh by much bigger margins
when I used to run a 100 CR fund this is
way back in 2007 so that time if memory
SS me right uh the portfolio was up
around 35% and index was up some 70% so
you were doing half of what the index
was doing uh yeah as I said more than
liquidity valuation is a challenge
uh if you want to buy shares you just
have to press a button on the dealing
terminal and shares will get bought that
that is not the challenge the challenge
is that uh the prices at which stocks
are trading right now generally uh means
that you take that much longer to deploy
and for opportunities to come your way
and uh to give a cricket analogy if uh
you need maybe four runs in over why
would you risk losing a wicket trying to
hit a
six happy to underperform in such
markets yeah and and sit on a pot full
of cash to wait for the next big
opportunity but great to understand that
perspective Rajiv uh thank you so much
uh thank you so much for joining us on
the show and giving us the lowdown on
how you think about portfolio construct
currently really appre appreciate the
time pleasure thanks well that's the
view from ppfas Rajiv tuer SE and
director of the AMC talking about uh the
portfolio construct in the current
scenario hope you found it as useful as
I found it while doing the show
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hello and welcome welcome you're
watching Market IQ and I'm your host
Palina let's take a quick look at where
the markets are at first well it's a bit
of a slow start to the week the nifty 50
as well as the sensex marginally in the
red they're both currently down by just
about a tenth of a percent uh let's have
a quick look at the top contributors to
the nifty50 was truly moving the
benchmarks it's R that's in the green uh
along with ITC infosis and H uh among
the losers are HDFC bank once again
along with Titan TCS and divies uh
currently we're seeing the Reds
outnumbering uh the greens uh the
advances uh currently about 19 stocks in
the nifty50 that are in the advances
while about 30 slightly over that 31 uh
that are declining uh let's also have a
quick look at the top performing sectors
uh now we're currently seeing Nifty PSU
bank that's lagging the most it's down
by about a percent uh a little over a
percent actually along with metal realy
Communications Pharma media bank and
mnc's these are all in the red what's
performing well is fmcg this uh the
sector is up by about
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