This is going to be explosive.

Summary

In this episode of the stock market brief show, the host discusses potential market volatility and explosive moves due to tight market conditions. They analyze the impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the inverted yield curve, and how these factors affect small-cap stocks. The show also highlights technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands, Bullish Percent Index, and market breadth, suggesting opportunities for potential upside in mid-cap growth ETFs and utilities, while cautioning about the risks of expanding volatility.

Takeaways

• 📈 The stock market is currently experiencing tight conditions which may lead to explosive moves, particularly in small-cap stocks that have been quiet.
• 📉 The CME Fed Watch tool indicates a high probability of a rate cut in September, with significant economic data releases and testimonies from Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen that could influence the markets.
• 📊 Historical patterns show that as the Federal Reserve transitions from hiking rates to cutting, market volatility tends to increase, which is a trend to watch for potential investment opportunities.
• 📊 The iWM weekly chart illustrates the relationship between the federal funds rate and small-cap stock performance, suggesting that lower rates can boost small-cap rallies.
• 📊 Bollinger Bands on the iWM are currently very tight, indicating potential for a significant price movement, similar to patterns seen before major market events like the 2020 pandemic and the 2018 market downturn.
• 📈 The Bullish Percent Index for the NYSE is at its lowest in 2024, suggesting a potential broadening of market participation and a shift towards smaller and mid-cap stocks.
• 📊 The Nisy Summation Index has shown a bullish crossover on the parabolic RS, signaling a potential change in trend which could indicate an upcoming market move.
• 📉 The growth versus value RS line indicates a potential rotation in the market, as divergences in the RSI suggest that growth stocks may start to underperform compared to value stocks.
• 📉 The VIX, a measure of market volatility, has shown very tight Bollinger Bands, similar to patterns seen in 2007 before significant market events, suggesting that a volatility spike could be imminent.
• 🏠 The housing market has been diverging from the S&P 500, with a deep negative correlation that historically has been followed by increased market volatility.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the 'Stock Market Brief Show' episode discussed in the transcript?

The main topic of the episode is the analysis of the current tight market conditions that may lead to explosive moves in stock prices, using technical and intermarket analysis.

What does the CME Fed Watch tool indicate in the context of the script?

The CME Fed Watch tool indicates the probabilities of a potential interest rate cut, which is being priced in for September, and discusses the importance of upcoming economic data and testimonies from Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen.

How does the script relate the federal funds rate to the performance of small-cap stocks?

The script suggests that the best time to buy small-cap stocks is when money is cheap, meaning when the federal funds rate is low. It also discusses how rate cuts and inversions of the yield curve can lead to increased market volatility.

What is the significance of the Bollinger Bands mentioned in the script?

The Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that measures market volatility. When the bands get very tight, it indicates that price action is compressed, potentially leading to a significant price movement in the future.

What historical events are referenced in the script to illustrate the potential for market volatility?

The script references the market conditions during the pandemic in 2020, the Christmas Eve Massacre in 2018, and the market situation in 2017 to illustrate how periods of tight Bollinger Bands have preceded significant market volatility.

What is the significance of the VIX and its Bollinger Bands in the script?

The VIX, or fear index, measures market volatility. The script notes that the VIX's Bollinger Bands have tightened to levels not seen since 2007, suggesting a potential upcoming spike in volatility.

How does the script discuss the relationship between the housing market and the S&P 500?

The script discusses a deep negative correlation between the housing market and the S&P 500, indicating that when these markets diverge significantly, it can lead to increased volatility and potential sell-offs.

What is the significance of the 'gamma flip line' mentioned in the script?

The 'gamma flip line' refers to a critical price level where the market sentiment can change rapidly. If the market falls below this line, it can trigger a volatile sell-off.

What trading strategy is suggested for the Vanguard Midcap Growth ETF based on the script?

The script suggests watching for a breakout from an ascending triangle formation in the Vanguard Midcap Growth ETF. If a breakout occurs, it could be a buying opportunity, but if the price breaks down, it would be a signal to exit or avoid the position.

What is the potential opportunity discussed in the script for the utilities sector?

The script discusses the tightening price action in the utilities sector, suggesting that a breakout above recent highs could lead to further gains, while a breakdown below recent lows could bring the sector back to test previous support levels.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Volatility and Rate Cut Insights

The speaker discusses the potential for explosive market movements amidst tight conditions, possibly triggered by Federal Reserve actions. They highlight the importance of the CME Fed Watch tool, which indicates a rate cut in September, and the impact of Jerome Powell's and Yellen's testimonies on market volatility. Historical patterns of market behavior during rate hike cycles and pauses are analyzed, with a focus on the IWM weekly chart and its correlation with the federal funds rate and yield curve inversions. The speaker also points out opportunities for small cap investments when money is cheap and the potential risks and benefits of an upcoming rate cut.

05:04

📊 Technical Analysis and Market Indicators

This paragraph delves into technical analysis indicators, such as the Bollinger Bands on the IWM chart, which suggest an imminent period of high volatility due to their current tightness. The speaker compares the current market situation with historical events like the 2020 pandemic and the 2018 market contraction, noting the potential for both upward and downward explosive moves. They also discuss the significance of the Bullish Percent Index and the NYSE bullish percent index, which indicate potential market breadth and the possibility of a rotation from large-cap to smaller or mid-cap stocks. Additionally, the speaker mentions the bullish crossover on the Nisy Summation Index and the potential early signs of an upward trend.

10:06

🏠 Housing Market Divergence and S&P 500 Analysis

The speaker examines the divergence between the housing market and the S&P 500, noting a historically negative correlation that could signal increased volatility. They provide an update on the correlation levels and discuss the implications of negative divergences in the housing market that have previously led to sell-offs. The analysis includes a tactical approach to trading the S&P 500, with specific focus on key resistance and support levels, gamma territories, and the importance of managing risk in the current market context.

15:07

📊 Expected Market Moves and Opportunities

The speaker outlines the expected weekly and daily moves for the S&P 500, based on implied volatility, and discusses the significance of these levels for trading strategies. They highlight the importance of being tactical, especially with the current market consolidation and the potential for a move to the upside. Specific attention is given to the Vanguard Midcap Growth ETF and the S&P Midcap ETF, which may present opportunities if the market breadth increases. The speaker advises on managing risk and being prepared for potential breakouts or breakdowns in these areas.

20:07

🔄 Tightening Market Conditions and Utility Sector Potential

The final paragraph focuses on the tightening market conditions, particularly in the utility sector, which could indicate an upcoming significant price movement. The speaker suggests that if the market breaks to the upside, it could bounce from the 50% retracement level, while a breakdown could bring it back to previous support zones. They also mention individual utility stocks and leveraged ETFs as potential trading vehicles, emphasizing the importance of understanding these instruments before trading.

Keywords

💡Stock Market Brief

The 'Stock Market Brief' refers to the video series that provides an overview and analysis of the current state of the stock market. In this context, it serves as a platform to discuss market trends, opportunities, and risks, as the host shares insights through technical and intermarket analysis. The script mentions 'Stock Market Brief show' as the medium through which the host communicates the day's market analysis.

💡Volatility

Volatility in finance refers to the degree of variation of a trading price series over time. In the script, it is discussed in relation to market conditions and the potential for 'explosive moves' in stock prices, indicating high market uncertainty. The VIX, a measure of the stock market's expectation of future volatility, is also mentioned, with the script noting large orders that could indicate a potential increase in market volatility.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method used in the stock market to forecast the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The script discusses technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands and RSI, which are used to identify patterns that suggest future price movements, and their application in predicting market contractions and expansions.

💡Intermarket Analysis

Intermarket analysis involves studying the relationships between different markets and their instruments to gain a better understanding of the market as a whole. The video script discusses how movements in the federal funds rate and yield curves can affect the stock market, illustrating the interconnectedness of financial markets.

💡Federal Funds Rate

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight. Changes in this rate can significantly impact financial markets. The script discusses how periods of rate cuts and pauses have historically led to increased market volatility and how the current rate environment might influence future market movements.

💡Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool defined by a set of lines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a moving average. In the script, they are used to identify periods of market contraction and potential explosive price movements, as the bands tighten before significant market events.

💡Yield Curve

A yield curve is a line that plots the interest rates, or yields, of bonds across different maturity dates. The script specifically mentions the '10-year minus 3-month yield,' which is an important measure used to assess economic sentiment and predict recessions, as an inverted yield curve has historically been a warning sign.

💡Bullish Percent Index

The Bullish Percent Index is a technical indicator that shows the percentage of stocks in an index that are trading above their moving averages, suggesting bullish sentiment. In the script, it is used to highlight potential market breadth and the possibility of a broader market advance, as it indicates a low percentage of stocks participating in the uptrend.

💡Parabolic SAR

The Parabolic SAR is a technical indicator developed to identify potential reversals in the direction of price action. The script mentions a bullish crossover on the Parabolic SAR, which could signal a potential change in trend, indicating that the market might be poised for an upward move.

💡Growth vs. Value

Growth vs. Value refers to the comparison between two types of stocks: those expected to grow at an above-average rate (growth stocks) and those considered to be trading for less than their intrinsic value (value stocks). The script discusses the relative performance of growth stocks compared to value stocks and the potential for a rotation between the two as indicated by divergences in their relative strength.

💡VIX

The VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of market expectations for near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 index options. The script notes the tightening of VIX Bollinger Bands to levels not seen since 2007, suggesting that the market may be anticipating a significant event or change in volatility.

Highlights

Introduction to the stock market brief show discussing potential explosive market moves.

Analysis of the CME Fed Watch tool and its implications for potential rate cuts.

Importance of Jerome Powell's and Janet Yellen's testimonies on market volatility.

Review of core inflation and PPI data releases and their impact on rate cut probabilities.

Historical patterns of market volatility during transitions from rate hikes to cuts.

Technical analysis of the iWM weekly chart and its correlation with federal funds rate movements.

Identification of opportunities for small cap investments when money is cheap.

Discussion on the Bollinger Band Width and its historical tightness as a precursor to market moves.

Comparison of current market conditions with the 2020 pandemic and 2018 market contractions.

Use of technical analysis to predict potential market expansions or contractions.

Tactical approach to trading based on current market volatility and gamma levels.

Analysis of the Bullish Percent Index and its divergence from the S&P 500.

Potential market opportunities in mid-cap growth ETFs and individual stocks.

Technical setup of the MDY midcap ETF and its ascending triangle formation.

Utility sector's tightening price action and potential breakout or breakdown.

Strategic trading advice on managing risk and taking profits in the current market context.

Market opportunities in leveraged ETFs and the importance of understanding their mechanics.

Transcripts

good evening ladies and gentlemen and

welcome to another episode of the stock

market brief show we have some

interesting charts to share with you

today things are getting very very tight

to a point where we may see some very

explosive moves and names that we

haven't seen much action whatsoever so

that's what we're going to talk about on

today's stock market brief show we're

going to go over the opportunities the

risks and all that and more while we

navigate the financial markets through

the lens of Technical and intermarket

Analysis let's go ahead and get into

today's episode

[Music]

all right everybody welcome back to the

episode first I want to start off

looking at the CME fed watch tool gives

us the probabilities of a potential rate

cut and as you can see we are pricing in

that cut here in September we do have

Jerome Powell coming out for a testimony

tomorrow we have Yellen tomorrow and we

have also on Wednesday Powell as well

going into Thursday we get core

inflation datas Friday we get PPI so one

can say this could be quite the week of

data and surprises maybe perhaps when we

get some more of this information to get

closer to that July meeting we'll give

more insight whether or not we'll see

that rate cut in July now it's going to

be important to see what happens from

this probability standpoint because in

the past we we've noticed when we start

going from a rate hike cycle to a pause

and going to cutting we actually see

volatility in the markets which we've

seen multiple times I'm actually sharing

with you an iwm weekly chart here's the

federal funds rate here down here down

here is the 10year minus 3month yield

yes yes yes and you can see it's red

right now because it was inverted it's

inverted right over there and right over

here and as we start to cut rates we

begin to uninverted

some sort of volatility event and we get

some sort of spike in volatility and you

can also see that the best time to

really buy small caps as well when money

is cheap meaning the federal funds rate

is smashed down there to the ground you

can see what happened well when we

smashed to the ground we went up on a

big rally it wasn't till here where we

started to get more chop why did we see

so much chop here oh what do you know we

started raising rates there again well

we came back down we cut rates after

this big old pandemic little hit there

and then the market took off to the

upside it wasn't until we started

lifting rates again till what we started

to see some chop and volatility so one

could expect that if we do start cutting

rates and we start to un invert perhaps

that might actually hurt small cap

to the point where we see another

volatility event however there are

opportunities still here for potential

upside and that's what I want to talk

about and that's what was on this

specific thumbnail now if I look at this

specific thumbnail it's showing you the

times uh that the Ballinger bands on the

iwm got very tight right here is the

Ballinger band width it's measuring from

the high part of the band to the low

part of the band it's not displayed on

this chart okay but it's basically

showing when it goes down the bands get

tight when it goes up the bands expand

meaning price action it gets tight and

then goes crazier and starts to expand

and in times of expansion or during

times of contraction if you understand

the basic principles of technical

analysis one of them is assets or stocks

equities markets they move between

periods of

contraction and expansion so if I pull

this up and I say wow we are very tight

here on the Ballinger bands how when's

the last time we've been this this this

when price action coiled up this much

well we go back a little bit oh not this

year not that year oh not this year not

that year it wasn't until 2020 early in

2020 that the bands got very very tight

and then we saw a sudden expansion but

you might be like saying Mike but yeah

but it could be also expand to the

upsite and that's absolutely true this

could be a oneoff because it was the

pandemic but let's go back a little bit

further and it was into September

October of 2018 where we actually there

shortly there expanded to the downside

known as the the crisis or the not

crisis the Christmas Eve Massacre into

the end of December so we're going to

see a very similar situation eh I don't

know but we'll get a little bit more

into detail of what we can expect by

looking at other different charts you

can see back over here in October

november-ish area of 2017 we saw a nice

little move to the downside but we saw

then a quick rip to the upside and then

volatility came to the downside then to

the upside back to the downside right so

a lot of volatility took place there in

a short order so as the Ballinger bands

are getting tight we can assume that

it's very likely that we can see some

explosive moves whether that's to the

upside or downside I'm not too sure and

if you want proof of you know us calling

this kind of stuff out in the the past

just take a look at this tweet this was

from October 14th 2023 this is when the

nasda composite was roughly at about

13,000 we were kind of flagging out here

and what we pointed out on the weekly

time frame was wow we haven't seen the

bands from a weekly perspective contract

this much since well October of 2021 and

there shortly thereafter we expanded to

the downside on the flip side of that in

October of 2019 we saw an explosive move

to the upside as volatility expanded and

then in the Christmas Eve Massacre you

can see also here going into 2019 the B

the bands were getting very tight and we

saw that explosive move to the downside

there if you want an updated chart well

this was when we called that out and you

can see we've seen an explosive move to

roughly about 18

,500 in the nasda composite so does this

mean that you know hey is this going to

be bearish like these last times this is

going to be bullish it's too hard to

determine but one thing is certain if

price action gets tight and say if

you're bullish and it goes in your favor

you can see an expansion of volatility

at your back which could be a very

beneficial thing if it goes against your

position you can get out for minimal

risk and we'll show the iwm chart

momentarily there are still a couple

bullish things going on in like broad

markets so let's take a look at the

bullish percent index for example we

know that bad breath has been in the

market right the S&P 500 The Q's they've

been going up but yet a lot of stocks

have been going down we'll take a look

here we're actually getting a a reading

that we haven't seen and it'san the

lowest that we've seen in all of

2024 okay the lowest reading we've seen

as the Market's kind of pressing higher

and just going sideways this is the New

York Stock Exchange bullish percent

index and you can see over here we have

a low a lower low a low and a higher low

there in the RSI and these divergences

they do matter right especially during

extreme periods of time so I'm calling

this out because are we going to start

to seeing broadening breath meaning are

we going to see some of these equal

weight you know positions start to move

in our favor some of these smaller caps

midcap names start to move in our favor

and it's a possibility you see this low

right here and this low right here we'll

take a look at this low and this higher

low right there that bullish Divergence

played to the November October November

2023 bottom and played it to the upside

quite well if I do show sh my shelf next

thing is the nisy summation index today

we just got bullish crossover on the

parabolics R so what does this mean it

means that we can identify a potential

change in Trend potential change in

Trend once again a potential change in

Trend these could also be whips but in

the last couple of signals where we had

one here one here one here you can see

it's been pretty good at spotting the

turn so we spotted the turn boom it

started moving sideways going up and

spotted the turn right here here boom it

spotted the turn right here where it's

been going sideways so right now it's

starting to curl up the mlen oscillator

is above zero so that could be positive

and it could be the early signs of a

potential move to the upside which lies

well with this positive Divergence plane

with the bullish percent

index while that's taking place I

thought this was an interesting chart

too I'm looking at growth growth

relative to Value the reason why I'm

looking at this is because well there's

been a huge move

in this relative strength line okay the

the the RS line of growth versus value

so what does this mean when it goes up

like this it means growth has been

outperforming value names right and what

I'm seeing here is somewhat of a

Divergence taking place in the RSI we

saw we actually last time talked about

it when we got very extended on this

High move of the rate of change and we

said this is where you can typically get

some pullbacks in like cues and stuff

like that we did get that and then we

saw it blast back up creating another

negative Divergence both in the rate of

chance

and the RSI so if this starts coming off

that means we can potentially start to

see that rotation take place in the very

near future so let's take a look at iwm

right now so iwm has been going

absolutely nowhere right it's been

basically in a very choppy range that is

getting tighter as we speak today it was

up about 7% it was up further it was up

around 204 and you could see it's

holding on to this you know lower high

but it's also holding on to these higher

lows Trends so as price action is

getting tighter the bonds or bands are

Contracting to levels that we haven't

seen in quite some time I would say be

on Lookout if we start to break out

through that 204 to play it up to around

210 and potentially maybe even higher

you got to manage risk but if it goes

like this and breaks down also be very

mindful because you can have an

expansion of volatility right where

price gets clipped to the down side

speaking of volatility I did find this

very interesting today the vix okay

there were some big orders so I just

pulled up my charts of the vix I was

like oh yeah this was cool I remember

that the V vix Ballinger bands got very

tight here in 2024 to a level that we

haven't seen since

2007 right that means volatility has

been coming off bands have been getting

very tight it's pretty interesting stuff

and then I saw today when I was looking

at this I was like oh shoot look at this

structure right here and this structure

right here is very very similar in fact

if I pull up 2007 structure and 2024

right now you saw the bands got very

very tight that we haven't seen since

you know 2 this was where it got very

very tight and what happened after that

red line we saw a spike very suddenly

and then it started to come off we saw a

spike very suddenly and it started to

come off so it's acting actually very

similar not to say that we're going to

have the same outcome however we know

what happened shortly thereafter it's

not what you think we actually saw it go

sideways and then we saw Spike up to

around 30 okay that's where the

volatility really started to expand and

even the Ballinger bands it wasn't until

later right into 2008 where we saw the

big move in volatility up to the 77 and

I'm calling this out because if you look

at the vix today there was some pretty

large orders that hit the tape you can

see over here um $45 calls so this is a

spread so we got a pretty large size

hedge going on with upside to

potentially around 45 so as we're

talking about this the 45 would be way

up here very similar structures to what

we saw over here and then we saw this

big pop so are they prepping for a

potential move like this is there you

know a potential event going to be

taking place or is this just obviously

protection against some larger larger

portfolios I don't know but it is

something to be aware of taking place in

the background on the prior video we

talked about the housing market and how

it was diverging from the S&P 500 and we

talked about the correlation from a

weekly perspective that it's never been

really good when we get these deep

correlations well I just wanted to show

the updated chart we literally are at

almost a 0.9 well we are at almost a 1

for one but it's minus .91 on the

correlation scale which is the most

negative I've seen this correlation

dating back as long as far as we can go

back here on this specific chart into

early 2000 what you'll see is when we

get these deep negative correlations

we've seen volatility pick up there

shortly thereafter uh are we going to be

seeing the same thing you know I we'll

we'll follow up on you know the last

time we we we talked about this but but

you can see over here on just the the

daily time frame for the housing market

up top S&P 500 and we talked about these

you know negative divergences where the

market press or the market press is

higher the S&P 500 but the housing

market doesn't match and it led to some

sell-offs same with the bullish

Divergence led to rips up to the upside

and then we have this negative

Divergence currently forming there in

the housing market now the last time

that we talked about this we talked

about this specific chart this is the

S&P 500 and this is where you got to get

very tactical okay because people see

the thumbnail they see the title they

see the first part of the video and

they're like see why are you so bearish

everything's so bearish well if you

actually watch the videos it's all about

being incredibly tactical in this

specific period which you can go to the

end of the video on last video and see

we said anything above 5500 is bullish

Target 5550 and then 5600 why 5600 5600

is where all Traders are reaching out to

not all but you get my point that is the

C wall based on gamma and it wasn't

until we said get you get below 5460 or

this 5450 range that's a cause for

concern well what happened let's take a

look Kaboom we saw a massive move from

5500 which is this level right here

right we have some updated levels so

this is that 5500 level we got above it

we went to 5550 what happened we got

above it we got rejected we came back up

we got rejected and then we came through

it and now we're trading up north of

that 5600 which is much larger in size

from the last time we talked about it

and from that point I should also note

that tra Traders aren't really reaching

past 5600 in this current moment so if

we can get up there this would be the

upside Target and if Traders do not

continue to reach out further to 5600 I

would suggest we can see something very

similar to as we saw right here at 5500

which was we broke above it we came back

down we came back up we came back down

we came back up we came back down it's

not until we get into negative gamma

territory where you can see some real

cell-side activity think of it is like

walking a plank right if you get below

if you're if you're walking the plank

the plank right here jumping off is the

gamma flip line and if you jump off

you're going to be you know dealing with

some volatile Waters it's not until you

get out of the water dry up and then

potentially see volatility contract and

you start going back into an environment

where you start buying the dip selling

the rip buying the dip selling the rip

buying the dip selling the rip and we're

pretty far off of that the current flip

line right now is 5510 I would be

expecting to see this thing go up if

we're going to be floating around 5600

in the very near future now if I take a

look at the spy on the 15-minute time

frame there are going to be some

important levels to pay attention to not

only are we in positive gamma territory

we're above a rising 5-day moving

average check check that goes to the

Bulls okay is it frothy yeah sure but

it's still in bullish context okay today

was one heck of a chop day if you

managed to be in the live stream we

basically traded one time from a low

back up to the Daily V daily vwap week

to dat anchored vwat and then called it

quits there shortly after because it

just we just chopped around all day okay

waiting probably for the FED

announcement or the testimony for

yelling for more macro data to come out

which with all that said we have a

weekly upper expected move at 56123 a

lower weekly expected move at

54805 I would imagine that we're going

to be tagging one of these in the very

near future my thought would be that we

go higher given the current context but

don't be surprised if we consolidate and

go sideways just a little longer right

we went on a very strong move and now

we're flagging out consolidating our

lower daily expected move going into

tomorrow is 553 our upper daily is 557

what are these levels these levels are

based off of implied volatility right

think of them as a distribution curve

68% of the time is one standard

deviation will close within this risk

parameters if you go two standard

deviations so it would be a little bit

bigger of a move that would be 95% of

the time will close within those ranges

so when you think of things in terms of

probabilities you can create trades when

you get outside of them when you get

near them when you start to see strength

or when you start to see weakness if

you're shorting or so forth now it's

June 8th July 8th right now okay we're

going into July 9th and we're already

about up at the monthly upper expected

move for what the market price in for

the at least I believe it was let me

just let me just double check while

we're here the upper monthly expected

move for the Spy is 560 yes okay that is

correct so this is also in line closely

with the upper weekly expected move so

if we get up into these areas this would

also probably be very close and

Confluence with the uh level that we

talked about up here at 5600 so yeah

this would be a level I'd be very I'd be

very aware of of taking profits you know

in your portfolio right like this is

where if you were been been catching

this move to the upside you want to

maybe not necessarily short it cuz who

knows how high it can go but you can

potentially look to take profits update

risk parameters put on Hedges whatever

the case may be when we get up into

these ranges up here because those are

some strong moves in the last couple of

months we broke through the month-to

date move but we came right back in

right into it and then bounced from

those levels okay now let's talk about

some more opportunities in the market

that I've been kind of seeing brew and

they're getting they're starting to get

tight and I think that you need to a

little research yourself as far as what

names are in these but I'm going to

start off here this is vanguard's midcap

growth ETF now the reason why I'm

showing growth is because growth is

where the money's been flowing into

growthing names but I'm talking about

the names that maybe haven't been

getting love like some of the larger

growth names the mega cap names and this

is the midcap growth ETF by Vanguard and

if we are going to get breath into the

market perhaps these type of ETFs maybe

individual names within it can very well

benefit and you can see price actions

getting very tight you're kind of in

this ascending triangle formation so if

we can break boom we can maybe come

retest 235 and very well potentially

break from this base that it's kind of

been forming in recent time now if it

breaks down what do you do you get you

get out you watch out because if if it

wants if volatility wants to expand to

the downside let it do so and if it

comes back and recoups it'll set back up

where you can get in for a better entry

now not necessarily better as far as

price but better as far as risk to

reward is what I'm trying to say here so

that's the current structure of that

I'll also look at mdy midcap s this is

S&P this is S&P spider midcap ETF 400

based on 400 names so you can also go

into like Google the Holdings here and

see what names might show a little bit

more relative strength or so forth now

this right here is getting very tight

now I showed you the iwm earlier right

the iwm is also getting tight but it's a

little bit more sloppy than something

like this is it's getting a little bit

more tighter offering up a little bit

better risk so if you start to see a

breakout through these 535 little levels

over here right before obviously

breaking down right if you start to see

the breakout take place then you'd have

a pretty tight risk to pretty good

reward there potentially even higher in

the near future if that's going to be

the case now if we start breaking down

before we break out then obviously it's

a cause for concern and you need to let

price setion do its thing right if you

break down from here and it expands

perhaps we go reconnect with the 200 day

perhaps we go test this prior low over

here and it's just in a Range trade okay

we don't know yet so it's best to kind

of wait for some type of Confirmation

and if you enter early right if you get

into names early right be it MD be it

whatever it is you you feel comfortable

trading if it breaks down just just just

respect it respect it or have a plan of

how you're going to trade through that

time period the last one I want to go

into here as far as potential

opportunity is still utilities utilities

these last three trading days have been

getting incredibly tight right so we see

this one range candle okay I'm pointing

at this one basically specifically there

but I'm going to just draw it so we have

one range candle then we have another

range candle a little bit bigger and

then we have a smaller range candle so

price action is tightening up which

means that if it starts breaking down

from the lows we may come back into the

gold FIB Zone however if we do start

breaking to the upside we may be you

know bouncing more from this 50%

retracement that we saw from this low

measured to this high as it's been

consolidating nicely here so if you

don't want to trade xlu by itself you

can look at you know individual names

like right NE is one of the top Holdings

there Duke is another one I I forget

what these charts look like s o right

s I'm in one of them too Sr I think it

is I don't quote me on that one I

already forgot the ticker but these are

some of the names within xlu sometimes

people just like trading leveraged funds

there's utss

right utsl is like a 3X so be careful

with those understand what you're buying

if you buy if you buy a leveraged ETF

and what that actually means that's all

I got for you on today's show everybody

I hope it helps out give you some cool

insights into what the market is doing

and some opportunities there too as well

see you later